Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

The abiotic ecology of breeding ground of Palaemonid prawns in the Ilaje Estuary, Ondo State, Nigeria

In situ ecological assessment of the breeding grounds of palaemonid prawns was conducted in some selected locations around Ondo state coastal area between the months of April and September. Data obtained were subjected to both descriptive and inferential statistics. Three species of Palaemonid prawns were identified in four different locations within the study area with relative abundance ratio of 4:3:1. Macrobrachium macrobrachion, Nematopalaemon hastatus and Palaemon maculatus respectively. Sex ratio of 1 male to 5 females for M. macrobrachion, and 1 male to 2 females for N. hastatus and P. maculatus were observed with result showing significant relationships (P < 0.05) in distribution patterns across collection sites. Population distribution within the water column showed that palaemons are sub-lithoral prawns inhabiting maximum mean depth of 0.67m ± 0.025. Surface macro-phytes such as Eichhornia crassipies, Paspalum vaginatum, and Pistia stratiotes are common providing hiding spots for the prawn at the breeding ground. The mean soil pH across the sites stands at 6.67± 0.399 with the soil textural class that range from silty-loam to silty-clay. Also, the water quality parameters of study areas suggest that captive culture and rearing of Palaemons may be feasible outside the breeding areas.