ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

A review on soil carbon accumulation due to the management change of major Brazilian agricultural activities

Áreas agrícolas trocam enormes fluxos de CO2, oferecendo uma oportunidade para mitigar o efeito estufa. Neste trabalho, estudou-se o potencial de sequestro de carbono em razão da conversão no manejo das principais atividades agrícolas do Brasil. Dados de vários estudos têm indicado que no sistema soja/milho e nas respectivas rotações, ocorre um sequestro de carbono no solo significativo ao longo dos anos de conversão do plantio convencional para o plantio direto, com uma média de 0,41 Mg C ha-1 ano-1. O mesmo efeito tem sido observado nos canaviais, porém há maiores acúmulos de carbono no solo quando as áreas de cana-de-açúcar são convertidas da colheita baseada na queima para a mecanizada, em que grandes quantidades de palha são deixadas na superfície do solo (1,8 Mg C ha-1 ano-1). Esse maior potencial de acúmulo de carbono no solo nos canaviais, comparado com outras culturas, está diretamente relacionado com a maior produção primária dessa cultura. Apesar disso, muito desse potencial de sequestro é perdido, uma vez que os canaviais são reformados, sob preparo intensivo do solo. As áreas de pasto mostram uma depleção nos estoques de carbono, quando convertidas de áreas naturais; porém, a integração dessas áreas com agricultura pode promover o aumento nos estoques de carbono do solo. Os trabalhos têm mostrado que as principais atividades agrícolas do Brasil possuem um grande potencial de mitigação, especialmente na forma de acúmulo de carbono no solo, sendo uma oportunidade para estratégias futuras.

Analise das emissões de CO2 e de energia - simulação com novas tecnologias siderúrgicas

The process of steel production emits a large quantity of greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide (CO2), and the reduction of such emissions is one of the main challenges for the industry in the 21st. Century. To quantify these emissions, the Worldsteel Association (association of the 170 large steel manufacturers of the world) published a methodology (CO2 Emission Data Collection) for calculation and comparison of CO2 emissions among its members. After that, in 2010, this methodology became an ISO (International Organization for Standardization) norm. Today, the calculation of the CO2 emissions in steel making companies follow the ISO 14404-1 for units with blast furnaces and the ISO 14404-2 for units with electric furnaces. In the last years, new technologies were and continue to be developed for the steel making sector aiming at energetic improvements and greenhouse gas reductions (mainly CO2) by the several processes involved in the production of steel. This work had the objective of producing a tool to calculate the CO2 emissions for the steel making sector. An Excel spreadsheet was developed to calculate the emission intensities of CO2 of a steel plant, the Usina Presidente Vargas, of the Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN). The spreadsheet furnishes results of CO2 emissions and energetic fluxes, and simulates the benefits that some of the new technologies can give to the company. The spreadsheet calculates the emissions in two ways: a) based on the carbon fluxes that enter the unit, and b) based on the emissions of each specific process within the unit (coking, sinterization, blast furnace, among others)

Short-term CO2-C emissions from soil prior to sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) replanting in southern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Fertilizantes e sistemas de irrigação: emissões de gases de efeito estufa no cultivo do milho

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Emissão de gases de efeito estufa e estoque de carbono no solo em função do manejo e correção de acidez

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Abiotic methane formation in oxic soils

Methane plays an important role as a radiatively and chemically active gas in our atmosphere. Until recently, sources of atmospheric methane in the biosphere have been attributed to strictly anaerobic microbial processes during degradation of organic matter. However, some potentially abiotic sources from the biosphere have been discovered in the past few years, starting with methane emissions from plants and plant litter up to the recent discovery of methane production in saprotrophic fungi.rnAlso methane fluxes from aerobic soils have been observed for decades but no alternative source to methanogenesis has been identified so far.rnThis work aims to provide evidence for non-microbial methane formation in soils under oxic conditions. It was found that soils release methane upon heating and other environmental factors like ultraviolet irradiation, and drying-rewetting cycles. The chemical formation of methane during degradation of soil organic matter represents an additional source in soil that helps to understand the methane cycle in aerobic soils. Although the emission fluxes are relatively low when compared to those from aerobic soil sources like wetlands, they may still be important in warm and wet regions subjected to ultraviolet radiation. Therefore this methane source might be highly sensitive to global climate change.rn

Mineral dust mobilisation, transport, and deposition in different climate epochs

Mineral dust is an important component of the Earth's climate system and provides essential nutrientsrnto oceans and rain forests. During atmospheric transport, dust particles directly and indirectly influencernweather and climate. The strength of dust sources and characteristics of the transport, in turn, mightrnbe subject to climatic changes. Earth system models help for a better understanding of these complexrnmechanisms.rnrnThis thesis applies the global climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for simulationsrnof the mineral dust cycle under different climatic conditions. The prerequisite for suitable modelrnresults is the determination of the model setup reproducing the most realistic dust cycle in the recentrnclimate. Simulations with this setup are used to gain new insights into properties of the transatlanticrndust transport from Africa to the Americas and adaptations of the model's climate forcing factors allowrnfor investigations of the impact of climatic changes on the dust cycle.rnrnIn the first part, the most appropriate model setup is determined through a number of sensitivity experiments.rnIt uses the dust emission parametrisation from Tegen et al. 2002 and a spectral resolutionrnof T85, corresponding to a horizontal grid spacing of about 155 km. Coarser resolutions are not able tornaccurately reproduce emissions from important source regions such as the Bodele Depression in Chad orrnthe Taklamakan Desert in Central Asia. Furthermore, the representation of ageing and wet deposition ofrndust particles in the model requires a basic sulphur chemical mechanism. This setup is recommended forrnfuture simulations with EMAC focusing on mineral dust.rnrnOne major branch of the global dust cycle is the long-range transport from the world's largest dustrnsource, the Sahara, across the Atlantic Ocean. Seasonal variations of the main transport pathways to thernAmazon Basin in boreal winter and to the Caribbean during summer are well known and understood,rnand corroborated in this thesis. Both Eulerian and Lagrangian methods give estimates on the typicalrntransport times from the source regions to the deposition on the order of nine to ten days. Previously, arnhuge proportion of the dust transported across the Atlantic Ocean has been attributed to emissions fromrnthe Bodele Depression. However, the contribution of this hot spot to the total transport is very low inrnthe present results, although the overall emissions from this region are comparable. Both model resultsrnand data sets analysed earlier, such as satellite products, involve uncertainties and this controversy aboutrndust transport from the Bodele Depression calls for future investigations and clarification.rnrnAforementioned characteristics of the transatlantic dust transport just slightly change in simulationsrnrepresenting climatic conditions of the Little Ice Age in the middle of the last millennium with meanrnnear-surface cooling of 0.5 to 1 K. However, intensification of the West African summer monsoon duringrnthe Little Ice Age is associated with higher dust emissions from North African source regions and wetterrnconditions in the Sahel. Furthermore, the Indian Monsoon and dust emissions from the Arabian Peninsula,rnwhich are affected by this circulation, are intensified during the Little Ice Age, whereas the annual globalrndust budget is similar in both climate epochs. Simulated dust emission fluxes are particularly influencedrnby the surface parameters. Modifications of the model do not affect those in this thesis, to be able tornascribe all differences in the results to changed forcing factors, such as greenhouse gas concentrations.rnDue to meagre comparison data sets, the verification of results presented here is problematic. Deeperrnknowledge about the dust cycle during the Little Ice Age can be obtained by future simulations, based onrnthis work, and additionally using improved reconstructions of surface parameters. Better evaluation ofrnsuch simulations would be possible by refining the temporal resolution of reconstructed dust depositionrnfluxes from existing ice and marine sediment cores.

Transient simulations of the carbon and nitrogen dynamics in northern peatlands: from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 21st century

The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by about half. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m−2 yr−1 over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in present-day peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either sustain or turn towards a source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Tab. 1 Mole % CO2 and 13C values of CO2 at baseline and at the final monitoring event for the eight observation wells

During CO2 storage operations in mature oilfields or saline aquifers it is desirable to trace the movement of injected CO2 for verification and safety purposes. We demonstrate the successful use of carbon isotope abundance ratios for tracing the movement of CO2 injected at the Cardium CO2 Storage Monitoring project in Alberta between 2005 and 2007. Injected CO2 had a d13C value of -4.6±1.1 per mil that was more than 10 per mil higher than the carbon isotope ratios of casing gas CO2 prior to CO2 injection with average d13C values ranging from -15.9 to -23.5 per mil. After commencement of CO2 injection, d13C values of casing gas CO2 increased in all observation wells towards those of the injected CO2 consistent with a two-source end-member mixing model. At four wells located in a NE-SW trend with respect to the injection wells, breakthrough of injected CO2 was registered chemically (>50 mol % CO2) and isotopically 1-6 months after commencement of CO2 injection resulting in cumulative CO2 fluxes exceeding 100000 m**3 during the observation period. At four other wells, casing gas CO2 contents remained below 5 mol % resulting in low cumulative CO2 fluxes (<2000 m**3) throughout the entire observation period, but carbon isotope ratios indicated contributions between <30 and 80% of injected CO2. Therefore, we conclude that monitoring the movement of CO2 in the injection reservoir with geochemical and isotopic techniques is an effective approach to determine plume expansion and to identify potential preferential flow paths provided that the isotopic composition of injected CO2 is constant and distinct from that of baseline CO2.

Gas composition, concentration and stable isotope ratios (Table 2, 3, 4)

The deployment of CCS (carbon capture and storage) at industrial scale implies the development of effective monitoring tools. Noble gases are tracers usually proposed to track CO2. This methodology, combined with the geochemistry of carbon isotopes, has been tested on available analogues. At first, gases from natural analogues were sampled in the Colorado Plateau and in the French carbogaseous provinces, in both well-confined and leaking-sites. Second, we performed a 2-years tracing experience on an underground natural gas storage, sampling gas each month during injection and withdrawal periods. In natural analogues, the geochemical fingerprints are dependent on the containment criterion and on the geological context, giving tools to detect a leakage of deep-CO2 toward surface. This study also provides information on the origin of CO2, as well as residence time of fluids within the crust and clues on the physico-chemical processes occurring during the geological story. The study on the industrial analogue demonstrates the feasibility of using noble gases as tracers of CO2. Withdrawn gases follow geochemical trends coherent with mixing processes between injected gas end-members. Physico-chemical processes revealed by the tracing occur at transient state. These two complementary studies proved the interest of geochemical monitoring to survey the CO2 behaviour, and gave information on its use.

Specific microbial biomarker signatures from Congo fan sediments of ODP site 175-1075, Congo soils, wetland and estuary sediments

Methane (CH4) is a strong greenhouse gas known to have perturbed global climate in the past, especially when released in large quantities over short time periods from continental or marine sources. It is therefore crucial to understand and, if possible, quantify the individual and combined response of these variable methane sources to natural climate variability. However, past changes in the stability of greenhouse gas reservoirs remain uncertain and poorly constrained by geological evidence. Here, we present a record from the Congo fan of a highly specific bacteriohopanepolyol (BHP) biomarker for aerobic methane oxidation (AMO), 35-aminobacteriohopane-30,31,32,33,34-pentol (aminopentol), that identifies discrete periods of increased AMO as far back as 1.2 Ma. Fluctuations in the concentration of aminopentol, and other 35-aminoBHPs, follow a pattern that correlates with late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate cycles, with highest concentrations during warm periods. We discuss possible sources of aminopentol, and the methane consumed by the precursor methanotrophs, within the context of the Congo River setting, including supply of methane oxidation markers from terrestrial watersheds and/or marine sources (gas hydrate and/or deep subsurface gas reservoir). Compound-specific carbon isotope values of -30 per mil to -40 per mil for BHPs in ODP 1075 and strong similarities between the BHP signature of the core and surface sediments from the Congo estuary and floodplain wetlands from the interior of the Congo River Basin, support a methanotrophic and likely terrigenous origin of the 35-aminoBHPs found in the fan sediments. This new evidence supports a causal connection between marine sediment BHP records of tropical deep sea fans and wetland settings in the feeding river catchments, and thus tropical continental hydrology. Further research is needed to better constrain the different sources and pathways of methane emission. However, this study identifies the large potential of aminoBHPs, in particular aminopentol, to trace and, once better calibrated and understood, quantify past methane sources and fluxes from terrestrial and potentially also marine sources.

Methane and sulfide fluxes in permanent anoxia: in situ studies at the Dvurechenskii mud volcano (Sorokin Trough, Black Sea)

The Dvurechenskii mud volcano (DMV), located in permanently anoxic waters at 2060 m depth (Sorokin Trough, Black Sea), was visited during the M72/2 cruise with the RV Meteor to investigate the methane and sulfide release from mud volcanoes into the Black Sea hydrosphere. We studied benthic fluxes of methane and sulfide, and the factors controlling transport, consumption and production of both compounds within the sediment. The pie shaped mud volcano showed temperature anomalies as well as solute and gas fluxes indicating high fluid flow at a small elevation north of the geographical center. The anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) coupled to sulfate reduction (SR) was excluded from this zone due to fluid-flow induced sulfate limitation and a fresh mud flow and consequently methane escaped into the water column with a rate of 0.46 mol/m**2/d. In the outer center of the mud volcano fluid flow and total methane flux were decreased, correlating with an increase in sulfate penetration into the sediment, and with higher SR and AOM rates. Here between 50-70% of the methane flux (0.07-0.1 mol/m**2/d) was consumed within the upper 10 cm of the sediment. Also at the edge of the mud volcano fluid flow and rates of methane and sulfate turnover were substantial. The overall amount of dissolved methane released from the mud volcano into the water column was significant with a discharge of 1.4x10**7 mol/yr. The DMV maintains also high areal rates of methane-fueled sulfide production of on average 0.05 mol/m**2/d. However, we concluded that sulfide and methane emission into the hydrosphere from deep water mud volcanoes does not significantly contribute to the sulfide and methane inventory of the Black Sea.

CO2 soil flux baseline at the technological development plant for CO2 injection at Hontomin (Burgos, Spain)

From the end of 2013 and during the following two years, 20 kt of CO2sc are planned to be injected in a saline reservoir (1500 m depth) at the Hontomín site (NE Spain). The target aquifers are Lower Jurassic limestone formations which are sealed by Lower Cretaceous clay units at the Hontomín site (NE Spain). The injection of CO2 is part of the activities committed in the Technology Development phase of the EC-funded OXYCFB300 project (European Energy Program for Recovery – EEPR, http://www.compostillaproject.eu), which include CO2 injection strategies, risk assessment, and testing and validating monitoring methodologies and techniques. Among the monitoring works, the project is intended to prove that present-day technology is able to monitor the evolution of injected CO2 in the reservoir and to detect potential leakage. One of the techniques is the measurement of CO2 flux at the soil–atmosphere interface, which includes campaigns before, during and after the injection operations. In this work soil CO2 flux measurements in the vicinity of oil borehole, drilled in the eighties and named H-1 to H-4, and injection and monitoring wells were performed using an accumulation chamber equipped with an IR sensor. Seven surveys were carried out from November 2009 to summer 2011. More than 4000 measurements were used to determine the baseline flux of CO2 and its seasonal variations. The measured values were low (from 5 to 13 g m−2 day−1) and few outliers were identified, mainly located close to the H-2 oil well. Nevertheless, these values cannot be associated to a deep source of CO2, being more likely related to biological processes, i.e. soil respiration. No anomalies were recognized close to the deep fault system (Ubierna Fault) detected by geophysical investigations. There, the CO2 flux is indeed as low as other measurement stations. CO2 fluxes appear to be controlled by the biological activity since the lowest values were recorded during autumn-winter seasons and they tend to increase in warm periods. Two reference CO2 flux values (UCL50 of 5 g m−2 d−1 for non-ploughed areas in autumn–winter seasons and 3.5 and 12 g m−2 d−1 for in ploughed and non-ploughed areas, respectively, in spring–summer time, and UCL99 of 26 g m−2 d−1 for autumn–winter in not-ploughed areas and 34 and 42 g m−2 d−1 for spring–summer in ploughed and not-ploughed areas, respectively) were calculated. Fluxes higher than these reference values could be indicative of possible leakage during the operational and post-closure stages of the storage project.

Nitrous oxide emissions from European agriculture - an analysis of variability and drivers of emissions from field experiments

Nitrous oxide emissions from a network of agricultural experiments in Europe were used to explore the relative importance of site and management controls of emissions. At each site, a selection of management interventions were compared within replicated experimental designs in plot-based experiments. Arable experiments were conducted at Beano in Italy, El Encin in Spain, Foulum in Denmark, Logarden in Sweden, Maulde in Belgium CE1, Paulinenaue in Germany, and Tulloch in the UK. Grassland experiments were conducted at Crichton, Nafferton and Peaknaze in the UK, Godollo in Hungary, Rzecin in Poland, Zarnekow in Germany and Theix in France. Nitrous oxide emissions were measured at each site over a period of at least two years using static chambers. Emissions varied widely between sites and as a result of manipulation treatments. Average site emissions (throughout the study period) varied between 0.04 and 21.21 kg N2O-N ha−1yr−1, with the largest fluxes and variability associated with the grassland sites. Total nitrogen addition was found to be the single most important deter- minant of emissions, accounting for 15 % of the variance (using linear regression) in the data from the arable sites (p<0.0001), and 77 % in the grassland sites. The annual emissions from arable sites were significantly greater than those that would be predicted by IPCC default emission fac- tors. Variability of N2O emissions within sites that occurred as a result of manipulation treatments was greater than that resulting from site-to-site and year-to-year variation, highlighting the importance of management interventions in contributing to greenhouse gas mitigation