Dynamical analysis of the global warming

Global warming is a major concern nowadays. Weather conditions are changing, and it seems that human activity is one of the main causes. In fact, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the nonnatural emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that absorbs the infrared radiation produced by the reflection of the sunlight on the Earth’s surface, trapping the heat in the atmosphere. Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic, and health aspects of human life. This paper studies the global warming trend in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus, which is a new standpoint in this context. Worldwide distributed meteorological stations and temperature records for the last 100 years are analysed. It is shown that the application of Fourier transforms and power law trend lines leads to an assertive representation of the global warming dynamics and a simpler analysis of its characteristics.

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

The global shopper & brands communication at airports

This project aims to illuminate two perspectives on travel retail. On the one hand, it describes the main character of the shopping scenario at airports, namely the Global Shopper. It covers the entire profile of the referred character, the main nationalities that represent him and the current shopping trends of the passenger. Also estimates of the booming nationalities and the future purchasing trends are accurately presented. On the other hand, the travel retail market is analyzed from the airport brands’ perspective. It is described what is currently done in terms of brands communication in the top ten airports around the world and the expected future market retail trends. To accurately explore the Global Shopper behavior and purchasing preferences, a market research was conducted with a sample of 128 respondents, male and female, from different nationalities, age groups, occupation and education backgrounds. The essay tests hypothesis regarding the relevance of several variables in the purchasing process of the Global Shopper in order to understand the most pleasant way to approach consumers in travel retail. The main variables studied concern the reasons to shop at airports, to whom the passenger shops, the preferred category and brand of purchase, feelings while shopping abroad, impulsive buying behavior, brand loyalty, the use of mobile devices in the shopping process, brands communication at airports, pre-ordering online and the attitude towards self-service stores. Some findings were in accordance with expectations, while others were a surprise and may produce valuable recommendations for future travel retail practices. 4 The main relevant results concern two areas, namely pre-ordering online and self-service stores. Results showed a certain stress about not having enough time to choose between the various offerings in travel retail, as well as difficulty in dealing with crowed stores. However, pre-ordering online was not common, which would be an initiative that could solve the discomfort at airport’s stores. Moreover, self-service would promote efficiency in stores allowing passengers to save time if they already know how to go through the shopping process by themselves. Another possible recommendation concerns differentiating the strategy in travel retail for the two genders. Some differences were found in the categories bought by male and female, as well as to how brands should shape their approach concerning the demands of each gender.

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming.

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.

Global and local connectivity changes in schizophrenia investigated by diffusion connectome

Background: New ways of representing diffusion data emerged recently and achieved to create structural connectivitymaps in healthy brains (Hagmann P et al. (2008)). These maps have the capacity to study alterations over the entire brain at the connection and network level. This is of high interest in complex disconnection diseases like schizophrenia. In this Pathology where multiple lines of evidence suggest the association of the pathology with abnormalities in neural circuitry and impaired structural connectivity, the diffusion imaging has been widely applied. Despite the large findings, most of the research using the diffusion just uses some scalar map derived from diffusion to show that some markers of white matter integrity are diminished in several areas of the brain (Kyriakopoulos M et al (2008)). Thanks to the structural connectionmatrix constructed by the whole brain tractography, we report in this work the network connectivity alterations in the schizophrenic patients. Methods: We investigated 13 schizophrenic patients as assessed by the DIGS (Diagnostic Interview for genetic studies, DSM IV criteria) and 13 healthy controls. We have got from each volunteer a DT-MRI as well as Qball imaging dataset and a high resolution anatomic T1 performed during the same session; with a 3 T clinical MRI scanner. The controls were matched on age, gender, handedness, and parental social economic-status. For all the subjects, a low resolution connection matrix is obtained by dividing the cortex into 66 gyral based ROIs. A higher resolution matrix is constructed using 250 ROIs as described in Hagmann P et al. (2008). These ROIs are respectively used jointly with the diffusion tractography to construct the high and low resolution densities connection matrices for each subject. In a first step the matrices of the groups are compared in term of connectivity, and not in term of density to check if the pathological group shows a loss of global connectivity. In this context the density connection matrices were binarized. As some local connectivity changes were also suspected, especially in frontal and temporal areas, we have also looked for the areas where the connectivity showed significant changes. Results: The statistical analysis revealed a significant loss of global connectivity in the schizophrenic's brains at level 5%. Furthermore, by constructing specific statistics which represent local connectivity within the anatomical regions (66 ROIs) using the data obtained by the finest resolution (250 ROIs) to improve the robustness, we found the regions that cause this significant loss of connectivity. The significance is observed after multiple testing corrections by the False Discovery Rate. Discussion: The detected regions are almost the same as those reported in the literature as the involved regions in schizophrenia. Most of the connectivity decreases are noted in both hemispheres in the fronto-frontal and temporo-temporal regions as well as some temporal ROIs with their adjacent ROIs in parietal and occipital lobes.

L'année 2012 de la perspective de l'interniste hospitalier [What is new in 2012 for the specialist in hospital internal medicine?].

The knowledge in internal medicine is constantly and so rapidly evolving that practices have to be updated and adjusted to recent scientific rules, in order to improve quality and efficiency in the day to day activities. Residents in the Service of internal medicine of the Lausanne University present several relevant papers published in 2012, whose results are susceptible to change the daily hospital practices. From modest impacts to real revolution, a variety of subjects are discussed in the perspective of evidence based medicine.

Market Orientation in Rapidly Internationalizing Small Companies — Evidence from the Software Industry

For more than a decade, researchers have been aware of the increased pace of small-firm internationalization and the greater effect of these rapidly growing small businesses on the wealth, international trade, and job-creation opportunities of countries. Due to the small size of the home market, Finnish companies have been generally considered highly interested in internationalization. One particular domain in which rapid internationalization has been considered feasible is the global software business, with its knowledge-intensive nature and high growth potential. However, over time the failure rate of small entrepreneurial firms has remained especially high in high-technology markets. One of the reasons for this seems to lie in the fact that these companies are often formed by people with a strong technological background but limited competences in other areas. Further, research on the marketing capabilities of rapidly internationalizing high-tech firms has been scarce thus far. In addition, while there is much research on the first years of operations of rapidly internationalizing companies, it is not well known what becomes of them later on. Therefore, there is a need for more investigation into the managerial mindset, competences and decision-making in these small companies, especially from the perspective of how they acquire and exploit market knowledge, and enhance their networking capabilities in order to promote international expansion. The present study focuses on market orientation in small software firms that internationalize their operations rapidly in global software markets. It builds on qualitative data to illustrate how these companies develop their market-oriented product-market strategies during the process of increasing international commitment. It also shows how they manage their network relationships in order to be able to offer better customer service and to thrive in the fierce global competition. The study was conducted in the empirical context of Finnish small software companies, and the main data consists of interviews with top managers in these businesses. The interviews were designed to cover a minimum period of five years of the company's international operations, thus offering a retrospective in-depth perspective on market orientation, internationalization and partnerships in the given context. One particular focus is on less successfully internationalized software companies, and the challenges they face when approaching international markets. This study makes a significant contribution to the literature on market orientation for several reasons. First, building on data from the software industry, it clarifies the existing theory in the context of rapid internationalization and network relationships. Secondly, it provides a good body of evidence on market orientation in both successfully and less successfully internationalized companies, and identifies the key related differences between the two company groups. Thirdly, it highlights the importance of inter-firm networks in the rapid internationalization of small software firms, providing companies with important market knowledge and, in some cases, management challenges. Fourthly, this investigation clarifies market orientation in the context of different software-product strategies, thus, combining the perspectives of market orientation in both manufacturing and services. In sum, the results of the study are significant for both small software firms and public-policy makers since they shed light on the market-oriented managerial mindset and the market-information gathering and sharing processes that are needed in successful rapid internationalization.

CTP in Transient Global Amnesia: A Single-Center Experience of 30 Patients.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Medial temporal lobe abnormalities on DWI and functional imaging are occasionally observed in patients with transient global amnesia. We used CTP to study these patients during or briefly after resolution of their amnesic syndrome. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 2002 onward, patients satisfying clinical criteria for transient global amnesia who underwent CTP were included. Patients with additional clinical features suggesting transient ischemic attack or stroke and those with an ischemic lesion on subsequent DWI were excluded. If deemed necessary by the clinician, DWI was performed within 10 days. RESULTS: Thirty patients with transient global amnesia underwent CTP at a median latency of 5.9 hours (interquartile range, 4.3-9.7 hours) after symptom onset. All findings, except for those in 1 patient, were normal, including those in the 14 patients with well-imaged hippocampi. In the patient with abnormal findings, CTP and PWI showed hypoperfusion in both lentiform nuclei extending into the insulae, with normalization on the repeat CTP 6 days later. In 10 patients, DWI was performed at a median latency of 2 days (interquartile range, 0-9 days). Of these, 2 showed punctate hippocampal lesions, often seen in transient global amnesia. In 2 patients excluded because of mildly atypical transient global amnesia and ischemic lesions on subsequent DWI, acute CTP findings were also normal. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with transient global amnesia had normal CTP findings in the acute phase with the exception of 1 patient with transient hypoperfusion in both basal ganglia. If imaging is performed for typical and atypical transient global amnesia, DWI should be the preferred method.

Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.

Possibilités d’une théologie évangélique postmoderne et pratiques des Églises évangéliques en contexte québécois

Alors qu’un nombre grandissant de théologiens évangéliques anglo-saxons se définissent comme postmodernes, ce mémoire vise, dans un premier temps, à définir ce que cela veut dire, à travers l’étude d’un ouvrage phare de ce mouvement théologique. Nous avançons que cela signifie que ces théologiens développent une théologie qui est en opposition à une théologie fondationnaliste, qu’ils confrontent les absolus du monde moderne au relativisme du monde postmoderne, et qu’ils plaident en faveur d’un relativisme modéré. Cela a des implications dans une pratique ecclésiologique qui se définit comme émergente. Cependant, ces nouveaux courants de pensées et de pratiques suscitent de nombreuses critiques d’autres théologiens évangéliques qui tiennent beaucoup à préserver les absolus que leur a apportés le cartésianisme, ainsi qu’une tradition ecclésiastique bien implantée. Ce mémoire examinera et résumera, dans un deuxième temps, les critiques qui viennent de ces théologiens. Puisque nous sommes en contexte québécois, nous avons également, dans un troisième temps, répertorié les écrits de théologiens évangéliques québécois sur le postmodernisme. De cette littérature nous avons choisi de résumer un article écrit en perspective d’une conférence donnée par l’auteur à un colloque qui a eu lieu à Montréal en 2007 au sujet des Églises émergentes. Nous avons aussi fait des entrevues semi- dirigées afin de comprendre la pratique ecclésiologique émergente dans le contexte québécois. La première entrevue a été réalisée avec un théologien évangélique québécois postmoderne et la deuxième avec un groupe composé de quelques personnes membres d’une Église émergente. Finalement, en conclusion, nous faisons une analyse des différents points de vue discutés dans ce mémoire et nous ouvrons des pistes prospectives concernant l’avenir d’une théologie et d’une ecclésiologie évangélique québécoise postmoderne.

Concept de non-violence chez le théologien processuel David Ray Griffin entre la guerre du Vietnam et celle d'Iraq (1968-2008)

La non-violence fait référence à une idéologie et un ensemble de pratiques qui ont pour caractéristique commune de rejeter la violence sous toutes ses formes dans l’actualisation quotidienne. La non-violence est cependant devenue également un outil auquel certains recourrent dans des objectifs qui ne servent pas nécessairement le bien commun. En d’autres termes, la non-violence n’est pas systématiquement un outil de paix. Elle est un moyen d’obtenir ce que l’on veut, sans recourir à la violence. Cette thèse propose une vision de la non-violence au service du bien commun. Elle puise dans l’historicité de grands événements et acteurs qui ont utilisé la non-violence pour libérer une collectivité de formes d’oppression qui amenuisaient la dignité humaine. Elle fait référence à des auteurs et acteurs qui ont influencé le théologien processuel David Ray Griffin dans sa propre démarche d’enseignement et de recherche théologiques sur une quarantaine d’années, soient de la guerre du Vietnam à celle d’Iraq. Les dates survolées vont de 1968 à 2008. Une première démarche entreprise par la recherche est de comprendre le plus précisément possible quelles sont les avenues les plus récentes concernant la non-violence et d’explorer ses influences sur la vie et la carrière du théologien processuel États-Unien David Ray Griffin. En second lieu, une rétrospective historique des événements marquants aux États-Unis permet de cerner le contexte au sein duquel Griffin a évolué et comment son discours a laissé transparaître ces influences historiques, sociales et académiques. Une analyse plus centrée sur la politique extérieure des États-Unis en matière d’économie et de militarisme aiguille vers l’identification de signes que Griffin qualifie lui-même d’anti-théologiques, ce qui l’incite à élaborer une vision paradigmatique globalisante, équilibrée selon lui, où les ressources planétaires sont redistribuées dans un souci d’équité et de justice. Pour ce faire, un tribunal international, une religion globale, à l’image de ce que propose la pensée processuelle whiteheadienne-hartshornienne sont proposés. Griffin en brosse les grands traits dans un discours où l’exhortation s’assortit d’une méthodologie et d’une pédagogie éprouvés depuis 40 ans. Une grille d’analyse des textes griffiniens est par la suite élaborée, structurant les différentes composantes fondamentales de sa pensée. Un modèle d’intégration des valeurs de la non-violence est dégagé des lectures, applicable à d’autres disciplines. Appuyé sur une tradition authentique d’auteurs non-violents, David Ray Griffin présente les caractéristiques d’un homme de paix, duquel les idéaux débordent le cadre national pour rejoindre le planétaire, dans une visée résolument sotériologique. Cette visée devient urgente alors que les événements des attentats terroristes du World Trade Center du 11 septembre 2001 font dire à Griffin que non seulement les États-Unis sont engagés dans une démarche impérialiste démoniaque, mais qu’ils contribuent de manière accélérée à la destruction de la planète. Il faut absolument, croit-il, renverser le courant et devenir, pour le monde, un leader de la réparation des écosystèmes, des économies et des sociétés. S’adjoignant des auteurs d’autres disciplines, et toujours dans un cadre processuel, Griffin entreprend le long périple pédagogique qu’est celui de convaincre le plus grand nombre d’individus possible que le temps est venu d’agir.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

A review of growth for construction service companies in global markets

Throughout the developed world, professional services play an increasingly important part in an economy, with many countries showing a substantial positive trade balance for services. Yet, there has been relatively little research on construction services (CS) and, in particular, how well professional service companies (PSFs) perform in the international arena. The method for collecting services export information differs to the way in which goods and products exports data are gathered because of the intangible nature of services. Organisational growth of companies aims to share risks across different regions and sectors, however, the rapidly changing business environment challenges companies with the increasing foreign ownership and changes in procurement. The complexity of today’s international construction services organisations raises two questions: how the organisations can successfully manage growth and what are their motives for international trade. The research focuses on top UK consulting engineering companies to understand their organisational strategy, their export strategy, and drivers for overseas activities. The data will feed a model of professional services exports, which can help to inform the way services export data could be collected to better reflect the industry’s performance.

Television and the popular: viewing from the British perspective

The academic discipline of television studies has been constituted by the claim that television is worth studying because it is popular. Yet this claim has also entailed a need to defend the subject against the triviality that is associated with the television medium because of its very popularity. This article analyses the many attempts in the later twentieth and twenty-first centuries to constitute critical discourses about television as a popular medium. It focuses on how the theoretical currents of Television Studies emerged and changed in the UK, where a disciplinary identity for the subject was founded by borrowing from related disciplines, yet argued for the specificity of the medium as an object of criticism. Eschewing technological determinism, moral pathologization and sterile debates about television's supposed effects, UK writers such as Raymond Williams addressed television as an aspect of culture. Television theory in Britain has been part of, and also separate from, the disciplinary fields of media theory, literary theory and film theory. It has focused its attention on institutions, audio-visual texts, genres, authors and viewers according to the ways that research problems and theoretical inadequacies have emerged over time. But a consistent feature has been the problem of moving from a descriptive discourse to an analytical and evaluative one, and from studies of specific texts, moments and locations of television to larger theories. By discussing some historically significant critical work about television, the article considers how academic work has constructed relationships between the different kinds of objects of study. The article argues that a fundamental tension between descriptive and politically activist discourses has confused academic writing about ›the popular‹. Television study in Britain arose not to supply graduate professionals to the television industry, nor to perfect the instrumental techniques of allied sectors such as advertising and marketing, but to analyse and critique the medium's aesthetic forms and to evaluate its role in culture. Since television cannot be made by ›the people‹, the empowerment that discourses of television theory and analysis aimed for was focused on disseminating the tools for critique. Recent developments in factual entertainment television (in Britain and elsewhere) have greatly increased the visibility of ›the people‹ in programmes, notably in docusoaps, game shows and other participative formats. This has led to renewed debates about whether such ›popular‹ programmes appropriately represent ›the people‹ and how factual entertainment that is often despised relates to genres hitherto considered to be of high quality, such as scripted drama and socially-engaged documentary television. A further aspect of this problem of evaluation is how television globalisation has been addressed, and the example that the issue has crystallised around most is the reality TV contest Big Brother. Television theory has been largely based on studying the texts, institutions and audiences of television in the Anglophone world, and thus in specific geographical contexts. The transnational contexts of popular television have been addressed as spaces of contestation, for example between Americanisation and national or regional identities. Commentators have been ambivalent about whether the discipline's role is to celebrate or critique television, and whether to do so within a national, regional or global context. In the discourses of the television industry, ›popular television‹ is a quantitative and comparative measure, and because of the overlap between the programming with the largest audiences and the scheduling of established programme types at the times of day when the largest audiences are available, it has a strong relationship with genre. The measurement of audiences and the design of schedules are carried out in predominantly national contexts, but the article refers to programmes like Big Brother that have been broadcast transnationally, and programmes that have been extensively exported, to consider in what ways they too might be called popular. Strands of work in television studies have at different times attempted to diagnose what is at stake in the most popular programme types, such as reality TV, situation comedy and drama series. This has centred on questions of how aesthetic quality might be discriminated in television programmes, and how quality relates to popularity. The interaction of the designations ›popular‹ and ›quality‹ is exemplified in the ways that critical discourse has addressed US drama series that have been widely exported around the world, and the article shows how the two critical terms are both distinct and interrelated. In this context and in the article as a whole, the aim is not to arrive at a definitive meaning for ›the popular‹ inasmuch as it designates programmes or indeed the medium of television itself. Instead the aim is to show how, in historically and geographically contingent ways, these terms and ideas have been dynamically adopted and contested in order to address a multiple and changing object of analysis.