Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Motor Grader Operator Maintenance of Granular Surfaced Roads : Tips from Iowa Operators, 1991

This booklet is a compilation of notes taken during motor grader operators workshops held at some 20 different locations throughout Iowa during the last two years. It is also the advice of 16 experienced motor grader operators and maintenance foremen (from 14 different counties around Iowa), who serve as instructors and assistant instructors at the "MoGo" workshops. The instructors have all said that they learn as much from the operators who attend the workshops as they impart. Motor grader operators from throughout Iowa have shown us new, innovative and better ways of maintaining gravel roads. This booklet is an attempt to pass on some of these "tips" that we have gathered from Iowa operators. It will need to be revised, corrected, and added to based on the advice we get from you, the operators who do the work here in Iowa.

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

Generalized synchronization in directionally coupled systems with identical individual dynamics

A simple chaotic flow is presented, which when driven by an identical copy of itself, for certain initial conditions, is able to display generalized synchronization instead of identical synchronization. Being that the drive and the response are observed in exactly the same coordinate system, generalized synchronization is demonstrated by means of the auxiliary system approach and by the conditional Lyapunov spectrum. This is interpreted in terms of changes in the structure of the system stationary points, caused by the coupling, which modify its global behavior.

Treatment deviating from guidelines does not influence status epilepticus prognosis.

Status epilepticus (SE) prognosis is related to nonmodifiable factors (age, etiology), but the exact role of drug treatment is unclear. This study was undertaken to address the prognostic role of treatment adherence to guidelines (TAG). We prospectively studied over 26 months a cohort of adults with incident SE (excluding postanoxic). TAG was assessed in terms of drug doses (± 30 % of recommendations) and medication sequence; its prognostic impact on mortality and return to baseline conditions was adjusted for etiology, SE severity [Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS)], and comorbidities. Of 225 patients, 26 (12 %) died and 82 (36 %) were discharged with a new handicap; TAG was observed in 142 (63 %). On univariate analysis, age, etiology, SE severity, and comorbidities were significantly related to outcome, while TAG was associated with neither outcome nor likelihood of SE control. Logistic regression for mortality identified etiology [odds ratio (OR) 18.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.3-82.8] and SE severity (STESS ≥ 3; OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4) as independent predictors, and for lack of return to baseline, again etiology (OR 7.4, 95 % CI 3.9-14.0) and STESS ≥ 3 (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.4-2.2). Similar results were found for the subgroup of 116 patients with generalized-convulsive SE. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses confirmed that TAG did not improve outcome prediction. This study of a large SE cohort suggests that treatment adherence to recommendations using current medications seems to play a negligible prognostic role (class III), confirming the importance of the biological background. Awaiting further treatment trials, it appears mandatory to apply resources towards identification of new therapeutic approaches.

Determination of the components of the gyration tensor of quartz by oblique incidence transmission two-modulator generalized ellipsometry

The two independent components of the gyration tensor of quartz, g11 and g33, have been spectroscopically measured using a transmission two-modulator generalized ellipsometer. The method is used to determine the optical activity in crystals in directions other than the optic axis, where the linear birefringence is much larger than the optical activity.

Robust Estimators of the Generalized Log-Gamma Distribution

We propose robust estimators of the generalized log-gamma distribution and, more generally, of location-shape-scale families of distributions. A (weighted) Q tau estimator minimizes a tau scale of the differences between empirical and theoretical quantiles. It is n(1/2) consistent; unfortunately, it is not asymptotically normal and, therefore, inconvenient for inference. However, it is a convenient starting point for a one-step weighted likelihood estimator, where the weights are based on a disparity measure between the model density and a kernel density estimate. The one-step weighted likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and fully efficient under the model. It is also highly robust under outlier contamination. Supplementary materials are available online.

PRPF mutations are associated with generalized defects in spliceosome formation and pre-mRNA splicing in patients with retinitis pigmentosa.

Proteins PRPF31, PRPF3 and PRPF8 (RP-PRPFs) are ubiquitously expressed components of the spliceosome, a macromolecular complex that processes nearly all pre-mRNAs. Although these spliceosomal proteins are conserved in eukaryotes and are essential for survival, heterozygous mutations in human RP-PRPF genes lead to retinitis pigmentosa, a hereditary disease restricted to the eye. Using cells from patients with 10 different mutations, we show that all clinically relevant RP-PRPF defects affect the stoichiometry of spliceosomal small nuclear RNAs (snRNAs), the protein composition of tri-small nuclear ribonucleoproteins and the kinetics of spliceosome assembly. These mutations cause inefficient splicing in vitro and affect constitutive splicing ex-vivo by impairing the removal of at least 9% of endogenously expressed introns. Alternative splicing choices are also affected when RP-PRPF defects are present. Furthermore, we show that the steady-state levels of snRNAs and processed pre-mRNAs are highest in the retina, indicating a particularly elevated splicing activity. Our results suggest a role for PRPFs defects in the etiology of PRPF-linked retinitis pigmentosa, which appears to be a truly systemic splicing disease. Although these mutations cause widespread and important splicing defects, they are likely tolerated by the majority of human tissues but are critical for retinal cell survival.

Modeling of non-isothermalvapor membrane separation with thermodynamic models and generalized mass transfer equations

A rigorous unit operation model is developed for vapor membrane separation. The new model is able to describe temperature, pressure, and concentration dependent permeation as wellreal fluid effects in vapor and gas separation with hydrocarbon selective rubbery polymeric membranes. The permeation through the membrane is described by a separate treatment of sorption and diffusion within the membrane. The chemical engineering thermodynamics is used to describe the equilibrium sorption of vapors and gases in rubbery membranes with equation of state models for polymeric systems. Also a new modification of the UNIFAC model is proposed for this purpose. Various thermodynamic models are extensively compared in order to verify the models' ability to predict and correlate experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data. The penetrant transport through the selective layer of the membrane is described with the generalized Maxwell-Stefan equations, which are able to account for thebulk flux contribution as well as the diffusive coupling effect. A method is described to compute and correlate binary penetrant¿membrane diffusion coefficients from the experimental permeability coefficients at different temperatures and pressures. A fluid flow model for spiral-wound modules is derived from the conservation equation of mass, momentum, and energy. The conservation equations are presented in a discretized form by using the control volume approach. A combination of the permeation model and the fluid flow model yields the desired rigorous model for vapor membrane separation. The model is implemented into an inhouse process simulator and so vapor membrane separation may be evaluated as an integralpart of a process flowsheet.

A prospective observational study comparing a non-operator dependent automatic PWV analyser to pulse pressure, in assessing arterial stiffness in hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) accelerates vascular stiffening related to age. Arterial stiffness may be evaluated measuring the carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) or more simply, as recommended by KDOQI, monitoring pulse pressure (PP). Both correlate to survival and incidence of cardiovascular disease. PWV can also be estimated on the brachial artery using a Mobil-O-Graph; a non-operator dependent automatic device. The aim was to analyse whether, in a dialysis population, PWV obtained by Mobil-O-Graph (MogPWV) is more sensitive for vascular aging than PP. METHODS: A cohort of 143 patients from 4 dialysis units has been followed measuring MogPWV and PP every 3 to 6 months and compared to a control group with the same risk factors but an eGFR > 30 ml/min. RESULTS: MogPWV contrarily to PP did discriminate the dialysis population from the control group. The mean difference translated in age between the two populations was 8.4 years. The increase in MogPWV, as a function of age, was more rapid in the dialysis group. 13.3% of the dialysis patients but only 3.0% of the control group were outliers for MogPWV. The mortality rate (16 out of 143) was similar in outliers and inliers (7.4 and 8.0%/year). Stratifying patients according to MogPWV, a significant difference in survival was seen. A high parathormone (PTH) and to be dialysed for a hypertensive nephropathy were associated to a higher baseline MogPWV. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing PWV on the brachial artery using a Mobil-O-Graph is a valid and simple alternative, which, in the dialysis population, is more sensitive for vascular aging than PP. As demonstrated in previous studies PWV correlates to mortality. Among specific CKD risk factors only PTH is associated with a higher baseline PWV. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02327962.

Local thermodynamics and the generalized Gibbs-Duhem equation in systems with long-range interactions

The local thermodynamics of a system with long-range interactions in d dimensions is studied using the mean-field approximation. Long-range interactions are introduced through pair interaction potentials that decay as a power law in the interparticle distance. We compute the local entropy, Helmholtz free energy, and grand potential per particle in the microcanonical, canonical, and grand canonical ensembles, respectively. From the local entropy per particle we obtain the local equation of state of the system by using the condition of local thermodynamic equilibrium. This local equation of state has the form of the ideal gas equation of state, but with the density depending on the potential characterizing long-range interactions. By volume integration of the relation between the different thermodynamic potentials at the local level, we find the corresponding equation satisfied by the potentials at the global level. It is shown that the potential energy enters as a thermodynamic variable that modifies the global thermodynamic potentials. As a result, we find a generalized Gibbs-Duhem equation that relates the potential energy to the temperature, pressure, and chemical potential. For the marginal case where the power of the decaying interaction potential is equal to the dimension of the space, the usual Gibbs-Duhem equation is recovered. As examples of the application of this equation, we consider spatially uniform interaction potentials and the self-gravitating gas. We also point out a close relationship with the thermodynamics of small systems.

Design of User Authentication System for Multi-operator wireless LANs

Langattomat lähiverkot ovat viime vuosikymmeninä saavuttaneet suuren suosion. Tässä työssä käsitellään käyttäjien todentamisjärjestelmän suunnittelua ja kehitystä langattomaan monioperaattoriverkkoon. Langattomassa monioperaattoriverkossa käyttäjillä on mahdollisuus käyttää eri operaattoreiden palveluita. Aluksi käsitellään olemassa olevia todentamismenetelmiä ja -järjestelmiä. minkä jälkeen kuvaillaan todentamisjärjestelmä langattomille monioperaattoriverkoille. Todentamisjärjestelmän ratkaisuvaihtoehtoja esitellään kaksi, niin sanotut moni- istunto - ja yksittäisistuntomalli. Moni-istuntomalli on normaali lähestymistapa käyttäjien todentamiseen tietokonejärjestelmissä. Siinä käyttäjän pitää tunnistautua ja todentaa itsensä jokaiselle verkon palvelulle erikseen. Yksittäisistuntomallissa pyritään parempaan luotettavuuteen ja käytettävyyteen. Siinä käyttäjä todentaa itsensä vain kerran ja voi sen jälkeen päästä useisiin palveluihin. Työn loppuosassa kuvaillaan suunnitellun järjestelmän toteutusta. Lisäksi ehdotetaan vaihtoehtoisia toteutustapoja, analysoidaan järjestelmän heikkouksia ja kerrotaan jatkokehitysmahdoillisuuksista.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.