Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

Characterization of the molecular components and function of BARE-1, Hin-Mu and Mu transposition machineries

Transposable elements, transposons, are discrete DNA segments that are able to move or copy themselves from one locus to another within or between their host genome(s) without a requirement for DNA homology. They are abundant residents in virtually all the genomes studied, for instance, the genomic portion of TEs is approximately 3% in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, 45% in humans, and apparently more than 70% in some plant genomes such as maize and barley. Transposons plays essential role in genome evolution, in lateral transfer of antibiotic resistance genes among bacteria and in life cycle of certain viruses such as HIV-1 and bacteriophage Mu. Despite the diversity of transposable elements they all use a fundamentally similar mechanism called transpositional DNA recombination (transposition) for the movement within and between the genomes of their host organisms. The DNA breakage and joining reactions that underlie their transposition are chemically similar in virtually all known transposition systems. The similarity of the reactions is also reflected in the structure and function of the catalyzing enzymes, transposases and integrases. The transposition reactions take place within the context of a transposition machinery, which can be particularly complex, as in the case of the VLP (virus like particle) machinery of retroelements, which in vivo contains RNA or cDNA and a number of element encoded structural and catalytic proteins. Yet, the minimal core machinery required for transposition comprises a multimer of transposase or integrase proteins and their binding sites at the element DNA ends only. Although the chemistry of DNA transposition is fairly well characterized, the components and function of the transposition machinery have been investigated in detail for only a small group of elements. This work focuses on the identification, characterization, and functional studies of the molecular components of the transposition machineries of BARE-1, Hin-Mu and Mu. For BARE-1 and Hin-Mu transpositional activity has not been shown previously, whereas bacteriophage Mu is a general model of transposition. For BARE-1, which is a retroelement of barley (Hordeum vulgare), the protein and DNA components of the functional VLP machinery were identified from cell extracts. In the case of Hin-Mu, which is a Mu-like prophage in Haemophilus influenzae Rd genome, the components of the core machinery (transposase and its binding sites) were characterized and their functionality was studied by using an in vitro methodology developed for Mu. The function of Mu core machinery was studied for its ability to use various DNA substrates: Hin-Mu end specific DNA substrates and Mu end specific hairpin substrates. The hairpin processing reaction by MuA was characterized in detail. New information was gained of all three machineries. The components or their activity required for functional BARE-1 VLP machinery and retrotransposon life cycle were present in vivo and VLP-like structures could be detected. The Hin-Mu core machinery components were identified and shown to be functional. The components of the Mu and Hin-Mu core machineries were partially interchangeable, reflecting both evolutionary conservation and flexibility within the core machineries. The Mu core machinery displayed surprising flexibility in substrate usage, as it was able to utilize Hin-Mu end specific DNA substrates and to process Mu end DNA hairpin substrates. This flexibility may be evolutionarily and mechanistically important.

Causes and consequences of variation in nestling immune function

Defence against pathogens is a vital need of all living organisms that has led to the evolution of complex immune mechanisms. However, although immunocompetence the ability to resist pathogens and control infection has in recent decades become a focus for research in evolutionary ecology, the variation in immune function observed in natural populations is relatively little understood. This thesis examines sources of this variation (environmental, genetic and maternal effects) during the nestling stage and its fitness consequences in wild populations of passerines: the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis). A developing organism may face a dilemma as to whether to allocate limited resources to growth or to immune defences. The optimal level of investment in immunity is shaped inherently by specific requirements of the environment. If the probability of contracting infection is low, maintaining high growth rates even at the expense of immune function may be advantageous for nestlings, as body mass is usually a good predictor of post-fledging survival. In experiments with blue tits and haematophagous hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) using two methods, methionine supplementation (to manipulate nestlings resource allocation to cellular immune function) and food supplementation (to increase resource availability), I confirmed that there is a trade-off between growth and immunity and that the abundance of ectoparasites is an environmental factor affecting allocation of resources to immune function. A cross-fostering experiment also revealed that environmental heterogeneity in terms of abundance of ectoparasites may contribute to maintaining additive genetic variation in immunity and other traits. Animal model analysis of extensive data collected from the population of collared flycatchers on Gotland (Sweden) allowed examination of the narrow-sense heritability of PHA-response the most commonly used index of cellular immunocompetence in avian studies. PHA-response is not heritable in this population, but is subject to a non-heritable origin (presumably maternal) effect. However, experimental manipulation of yolk androgen levels indicates that the mechanism of the maternal effect in PHA-response is not in ovo deposition of androgens. The relationship between PHA-response and recruitment was studied for over 1300 collared flycatcher nestlings. Multivariate selection analysis shows that it is body mass, not PHA-response, that is under direct selection. PHA-response appears to be related to recruitment because of its positive relationship with body mass. These results imply that either PHA-response fails to capture the immune mechanisms that are relevant for defence against pathogens encountered by fledglings or that the selection pressure from parasites is not as strong as commonly assumed.

Blockade of estrogen synthesis with an aromatase inhibitor affects luteal function of the pseudopregnant rat

The luteotropic action of estrogen (E) was investigated using immature pseudopregnant rat as the model and CGS 16949A (Fadrozole hydrochloride), a potent aromatase inhibitor (AI), to block E synthesis. Aromatase activity could be inhibited by administering CGS 16949A (50 mu g/day/rat) via a mini osmotic Alzet pump (model 2002) for 3 days during pseudopregnancy. This resulted in significant reduction of serum (40%, P < 0.05) and intraovarian (70.6%, P < 0.001) estradiol-17 beta (E(2)) levels. The serum and intraovarian progesterone (P-4) levels as analyzed on day 4 of pseudopregnancy were also reduced by greater than or equal to 50% (for both, P < 0.01). Simultaneous administration of estradiol-3-benzoate (E(2)B) via an Alzet pump during the Al: treatment period at a dose of 1 mu g/day could completely reverse the Al induced reduction in P-4 secretion. The luteal cells of experimental rats depleted of E in vivo showed a significantly reduced response upon incubation with hCG or dbcAMP in vitro (P < 0.05 and 0.001, respectively). Addition of E(2) (500 pg/tube) at the time of in vitro incubation was able to partially increase the responsiveness to hCG. The luteal cell LH/hCG receptor content and the affinity of hCG binding to the receptor remained unchanged following AI treatment in vivo. Both esterified and total cholesterol content of luteal cells of rats treated with Al in vivo was significantly high (P < 0.05) suggesting that E lack results in an impairment in cholesterol utilization for steroidogenesis. The results clearly show that E regulates luteal function in the pseudopregnant rat by acting at a non-cAMP mediated event and this perhaps involves facilitation of cholesterol utilization at the mitochondrial level for P-4 synthesis.

Reproducibility of scratch assays is affected by the initial degree of confluence: Experiments, modelling and model selection

Scratch assays are difficult to reproduce. Here we identify a previously overlooked source of variability which could partially explain this difficulty. We analyse a suite of scratch assays in which we vary the initial degree of confluence (initial cell density). Our results indicate that the rate of re-colonisation is very sensitive to the initial density. To quantify the relative roles of cell migration and proliferation, we calibrate the solution of the Fisher–Kolmogorov model to cell density profiles to provide estimates of the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ. This procedure indicates that the estimates of D and λ are very sensitive to the initial density. This dependence suggests that the Fisher–Kolmogorov model does not accurately represent the details of the collective cell spreading process, since this model assumes that D and λ are constants that ought to be independent of the initial density. Since higher initial cell density leads to enhanced spreading, we also calibrate the solution of the Porous–Fisher model to the data as this model assumes that the cell flux is an increasing function of the cell density. Estimates of D and λ associated with the Porous–Fisher model are less sensitive to the initial density, suggesting that the Porous–Fisher model provides a better description of the experiments.

Changes in testicular function following specific deprivation of LH in the adult male rabbit

Sexually mature male rabbits actively immunized against highly purified ovine LH (oLH) were used as a model system to study the effects of endogenous LH deprivation (and therefore testosterone) on spermatogenesis as well as pituitary FSH secretion. Immunization against oLH generated antibody titres capable of cross-reacting and neutralizing rabbit LH and this resulted in a significant reduction (P<0.01) in serum testosterone levels by 2-4 weeks of immunization. A significant increase in circulating FSH concentration (from a basal level of similar to 1 ng to 60-100 ng/ml; P<0.01) was observed within 4-6 weeks of immunization, perhaps a consequence of the negative feedback effect of the lack of testosterone. The effect of LH deprivation on spermatogenesis assessed by DNA flow cytometry and histological analyses of testicular biopsy tissue revealed that lack of testosterone primarily results in a rapid reduction and complete absence of round (1C) and elongated (HC) spermatids. The immediate effect of LH/testosterone deprivation thus appears to be at the step of meiotic transformation of primary spermatocytes (4C) to 1C. A significant reduction (>80%; P<0.01) in the 4C population and a relative accumulation (>90%; P<0.01) in spermatogonia (2C) was also observed, suggesting a need for testosterone during the transformation of 2C to 1C. In all but one of the rabbits, both qualitative and quantitative recovery in spermatogenesis occurred during the recovery phase, even at a time when only a marginal increase in serum testosterone (compared with the preimmunization) levels was observed as a result of a rapid decline in the cross-reactive antibody titres. These results clearly show that LH/testosterone deprivation in addition to primarily affecting the meiotic step also regulates the conversion of 2C to 4C during spermatogenesis.

Multi-channel curve crossing problems: analytically solvable model

We have proposed a general method for finding the exact analytical solution for the multi-channel curve crossing problem in the presence of delta function couplings. We have analysed the case where aa potential energy curve couples to a continuum (in energy) of the potential energy curves.

Characterization of inhibition of platelet function by paracetamol and its interaction with diclofenac and parecoxib

Aim: To characterize the inhibition of platelet function by paracetamol in vivo and in vitro, and to evaluate the possible interaction of paracetamol and diclofenac or valdecoxib in vivo. To assess the analgesic effect of the drugs in an experimental pain model. Methods: Healthy volunteers received increasing doses of intravenous paracetamol (15, 22.5 and 30 mg/kg), or the combination of paracetamol 1 g and diclofenac 1.1 mg/kg or valdecoxib 40 mg (as the pro-drug parecoxib). Inhibition of platelet function was assessed with photometric aggregometry, the platelet function analyzer (PFA-100), and release of thromboxane B2. Analgesia was assessed with the cold pressor test. The inhibition coefficient of platelet aggregation by paracetamol was determined as well as the nature of interaction between paracetamol and diclofenac by an isobolographic analysis in vitro. Results: Paracetamol inhibited platelet aggregation and TxB2-release dose-dependently in volunteers and concentration-dependently in vitro. The inhibition coefficient was 15.2 mg/L (95% CI 11.8 - 18.6). Paracetamol augmented the platelet inhibition by diclofenac in vivo, and the isobole showed that this interaction is synergistic. Paracetamol showed no interaction with valdecoxib. PFA-100 appeared insensitive in detecting platelet dysfunction by paracetamol, and the cold-pressor test showed no analgesia. Conclusions: Paracetamol inhibits platelet function in vivo and shows synergism when combined with diclofenac. This effect may increase the risk of bleeding in surgical patients with an impaired haemostatic system. The combination of paracetamol and valdecoxib may be useful in patients with low risk for thromboembolism. The PFA-100 seems unsuitable for detection of platelet dysfunction and the cold-pressor test seems unsuitable for detection of analgesia by paracetamol.

Anomalous reaction-diffusion as a model of nonexponential DNA escape kinetics

We show that data from recent experiments carried out on the kinetics of DNA escape from alpha-hemolysin nanopores [M. Wiggin, C. Tropini, C. T. Cossa, N. N. Jetha, and A. Marziali, Biophys. J. 95, 5317 (2008)] may be rationalized by a model of chain dynamics based on the anomalous diffusion of a particle moving in a harmonic well in the presence of a delta function sink. The experiments of Wiggin found, among other things, that the occasional occurrence of unusually long escape times in the distribution of chain trapping events led to nonexponential decays in the survival probability, S(t), of the DNA molecules within the nanopore. Wiggin ascribed this nonexponentiality to the existence of a distribution of trapping potentials, which they suggested was theresult of stochastic interactions between the bases of the DNA and the amino acids located on the surface of the nanopore. Based on this idea, they showed that the experimentally determined S(t) could be well fit in both the short and long time regimes by a function of the form (1+t/tau)(-alpha) (the so called Becquerel function). In our model, S(t) is found to be given by a Mittag-Leffler function at short times and by a generalized Mittag-Leffler function at long times. By suitable choice of certain parameter values, these functions are found to fit the experimental S(t) even better than the Becquerel function. Anomalous diffusion of DNA within the trap prior to escape over a barrier of fixed height may therefore provide a second, plausible explanation of the data, and may offer fresh perspectives on similar trapping and escape problems.

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation of very extreme US precipitation events in a global atmosphere model

We investigate the ability of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to reproduce observed 20 year return values of the annual maximum daily precipitation totals over the continental United States as a function of horizontal resolution. We find that at the high resolutions enabled by contemporary supercomputers, the AGCM can produce values of comparable magnitude to high quality observations. However, at the resolutions typical of the coupled general circulation models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the precipitation return values are severely underestimated.

An adiabatic model for a two-stage double-inlet pulse tube refrigerator

A numerical modelling technique for predicting the detailed performance of a double-inlet type two-stage pulse tube refrigerator has been developed. The pressure variations in the compressor, pulse tube, and reservoir were derived, assuming the stroke volume variation of the compressor to be sinusoidal. The relationships of mass flowrates, volume flowrates, and temperature as a function of time and position were developed. The predicted refrigeration powers are calculated by considering the effect of void volumes and the phase shift between pressure and mass flowrate. These results are compared with the experimental results of a specific pulse tube refrigerator configuration and an existing theoretical model. The analysis shows that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with each other.

Vascular dilatory function and cardiovascular risk factors in women with a history of pre-eclampsia

Women with a history of pre-eclampsia have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease in later life. The mechanisms which mediate this heightened risk are poorly understood; it was long believed that pre-eclampsia was a separate disease without any connection to other pathologies. The present study was undertaken to investigate the cardiovascular risk milieu, vascular dilatory function and cardiovascular risk factors, in women with pre-eclampsia, 5 6 years after index pregnancy. The aim was to understand better the cardiovascular risks associated with pre-eclampsia and add tools to the evaluation of cardiovascular risk in women. --- The study involved 30 women with previous severe pre-eclampsia and 21 controls. The 2-day study protocol included venous occlusion plethysmography and pulse wave analysis for assessment of vascular dilatory function and central pulse wave reflection, respectively, office and ambulatory blood pressure measurements, assessment of insulin sensitivity, using a minimal model technique, and tests regarding renal function, lipid metabolism, sympathetic activity and inflammation. Vasodilatory function was impaired in women with a history of pre-eclampsia; this was seen in both endothelium-dependent and endothelium-independent vasodilatation. Proteinuria during pre-eclampsia did not predict changes in vasodilatation, and renal function was similar in the two groups. Insulin sensitivity was related to vasodilatation and features of metabolic syndrome, but only in the patient group, despite similar insulin sensitivity in the control group. Arterial pressure was higher in the patient group than in the controls and correlated with endothelin-1 levels in the patient group, whilst the overall difference between the groups was diminished in 24 hour arterial pressure measurements. Additionally, women with previous pre-eclampsia were characterized by increased sympathetic activity. Impaired vasodilatory function at the vascular smooth muscle level seems to characterize clinically healthy women with a history of pre-eclampsia. These vascular changes and the features of metabolic syndrome may be related to the increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, increased blood pressure in combination with enhanced sympathetic activity may be additive as regards this risk. These women should be informed about their potential cardiovascular risk profile and the possibilities to minimize it via their own actions. Medical cardiovascular risk assessment in women should include obstetric history.

Myoblast transplantation and adenoviral VEGF-C transfer in porcine model of coronary artery disease

Heart failure is a common and highly challenging medical disorder. The progressive increase of elderly population is expected to further reflect in heart failure incidence. Recent progress in cell transplantation therapy has provided a conceptual alternative for treatment of heart failure. Despite improved medical treatment and operative possibilities, end-stage coronary artery disease present a great medical challenge. It has been estimated that therapeutic angiogenesis would be the next major advance in the treatment of ischaemic heart disease. Gene transfer to augment neovascularization could be beneficial for such patients. We employed a porcine model to evaluate the angiogenic effect of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-C gene transfer. Ameroid-generated myocardial ischemia was produced and adenovirus encoding (ad)VEGF-C or β-galactosidase (LacZ) gene therapy was given intramyocardially during progressive coronary stenosis. Angiography, positron emission tomography (PET), single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and histology evidenced beneficial affects of the adVEGF-C gene transfer compared to adLacZ. The myocardial deterioration during progressive coronary stenosis seen in the control group was restrained in the treatment group. We observed an uneven occlusion rate of the coronary vessels with Ameroid constrictor. We developed a simple methodological improvement of Ameroid model by ligating of the Ameroid–stenosed coronary vessel. Improvement of the model was seen by a more reliable occlusion rate of the vessel concerned and a formation of a rather constant myocardial infarction. We assessed the spontaneous healing of the left ventricle (LV) in this new model by SPECT, PET, MRI, and angiography. Significant spontaneous improvement of myocardial perfusion and function was seen as well as diminishment of scar volume. Histologically more microvessels were seen in the border area of the lesion. Double staining of the myocytes in mitosis indicated more cardiomyocyte regeneration at the remote area of the lesion. The potential of autologous myoblast transplantation after ischaemia and infarction of porcine heart was evaluated. After ligation of stenosed coronary artery, autologous myoblast transplantation or control medium was directly injected into the myocardium at the lesion area. Assessed by MRI, improvement of diastolic function was seen in the myoblast-transplanted animals, but not in the control animals. Systolic function remained unchanged in both groups.