A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Behaviour evaluation for risk-taking adolescents (BERTA): an easy to use and assess instrument to detect adolescent risky behaviours in a clinical setting.

To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.

An approach to vision-based station keeping for an unmanned underwater vehicle

This paper presents an automatic vision-based system for UUV station keeping. The vehicle is equipped with a down-looking camera, which provides images of the sea-floor. The station keeping system is based on a feature-based motion detection algorithm, which exploits standard correlation and explicit textural analysis to solve the correspondence problem. A visual map of the area surveyed by the vehicle is constructed to increase the flexibility of the system, allowing the vehicle to position itself when it has lost the reference image. The testing platform is the URIS underwater vehicle. Experimental results demonstrating the behavior of the system on a real environment are presented

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

An approach to visual servoing based on coded light

Positioning a robot with respect to objects by using data provided by a camera is a well known technique called visual servoing. In order to perform a task, the object must exhibit visual features which can be extracted from different points of view. Then, visual servoing is object-dependent as it depends on the object appearance. Therefore, performing the positioning task is not possible in presence of non-textured objects or objects for which extracting visual features is too complex or too costly. This paper proposes a solution to tackle this limitation inherent to the current visual servoing techniques. Our proposal is based on the coded structured light approach as a reliable and fast way to solve the correspondence problem. In this case, a coded light pattern is projected providing robust visual features independently of the object appearance

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Development of the BG-Malaria trap as an alternative to human-landing catches for the capture of Anopheles darlingi

Although the human-landing catch (HLC) method is the most effective for collecting anthropophilic anophelines, it has been increasingly abandoned, primarily for ethical considerations. The objective of the present study was to develop a new trap for the collection of Anopheles darlingi . The initial trials were conducted using the BG-Sentinel trap as a standard for further trap development based on colour, airflow direction and illumination. The performance of the trap was then compared with those of the CDC, Fay-Prince, counterflow geometry trap (CFG) and HLC. All trials were conducted outdoors between 06:00 pm-08:00 pm. Female specimens of An. darlingi were dissected to determine their parity. A total of 8,334 anophelines were captured, of which 4,945 were identified as An. darlingi . The best trap configuration was an all-white version, with an upward airflow and no required light source. This configuration was subsequently named BG-Malaria (BGM). The BGM captured significantly more anophelines than any of the other traps tested and was similar to HLC with respect to the number and parity of anophelines. The BGM trap can be used as an alternative to HLC for collecting anophelines.

Appropriation of technology in "non-western" societies: an approximation to the case of Bulgaria

The principal focus of the PhD thesis lies in the Social Software area and the appropriation of technology in "non-Western" societies taking the example of Bulgaria. The term "non-Western" is used to explain places considered technologically underdeveloped. The aims have been to capture how Bulgarian users creatively interpret and appropriate Internet identifying the sociocultural, political and subjective conditions in which that appropriation occurs, to identify emerging practices based on the interpretation and use of Internet and the impact they had on society and what conditions could influence the technological interpretation and the meaning these practices had for both users and social configuration of Internet as media in Bulgaria. An ethnographic approach has been used simultaneously in different online and offline contexts. On the one hand, this study is based on exploration of the Bulgarian Internet Space through online participant observation in forums and websites reviews and on the other hand, on semi-structured interviews with different types of users of the virtual platforms found, made both face to face and online and finally online participant observation at the same platforms. It is based on some contributions of the ethnographic work of Christine Hine in virtual environments and the notions of time and space of Barbara Czarniawska contextualized in the modern form of organization that occurs in a network of multiple and fragmented contexts across many movements.

Body girth as an alternative to body mass for establishing condition indexes in field studies: a validation in the king penguin.

Body mass and body condition are often tightly linked to animal health and fitness in the wild and thus are key measures for ecophysiologists and behavioral ecologists. In some animals, such as large seabird species, obtaining indexes of structural size is relatively easy, whereas measuring body mass under specific field circumstances may be more of a challenge. Here, we suggest an alternative, easily measurable, and reliable surrogate of body mass in field studies, that is, body girth. Using 234 free-living king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) at various stages of molt and breeding, we measured body girth under the flippers, body mass, and bill and flipper length. We found that body girth was strongly and positively related to body mass in both molting (R(2) = 0.91) and breeding (R(2) = 0.73) birds, with the mean error around our predictions being 6.4%. Body girth appeared to be a reliable proxy measure of body mass because the relationship did not vary according to year and experimenter, bird sex, or stage within breeding groups. Body girth was, however, a weak proxy of body mass in birds at the end of molt, probably because most of those birds had reached a critical depletion of energy stores. Body condition indexes established from ordinary least squares regressions of either body girth or body mass on structural size were highly correlated (r(s) = 0.91), suggesting that body girth was as good as body mass in establishing body condition indexes in king penguins. Body girth may prove a useful proxy to body mass for estimating body condition in field investigations and could likely provide similar information in other penguins and large animals that may be complicated to weigh in the wild.

Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations

We consider stock market contagion as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or group of countries. Under this definition we study if contagion occurred from the U.S. Financial Crisis to the rest of the major stock markets in the world by using the adjusted (unconditional) correlation coefficient approach (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002) which consists of testing if average crossmarket correlations increase significantly during the relevant period of turmoil. We would not reject the null hypothesis of interdependence in favour of contagion if the increase in correlation only suggests a continuation of high linkages in all state of the world. Moreover, if contagion occurs, this would justify the intervention of the IMF and the suddenly portfolio restructuring during the period under study.

Evaluating thermal treeline indicators based on air and soil temperature using an air-to-soil temperature transfer model

In recent research, both soil (root-zone) and air temperature have been used as predictors for the treeline position worldwide. In this study, we intended to (a) test the proposed temperature limitation at the treeline, and (b) investigate effects of season length for both heat sum and mean temperature variables in the Swiss Alps. As soil temperature data are available for a limited number of sites only, we developed an air-to-soil transfer model (ASTRAMO). The air-to-soil transfer model predicts daily mean root-zone temperatures (10cm below the surface) at the treeline exclusively from daily mean air temperatures. The model using calibrated air and root-zone temperature measurements at nine treeline sites in the Swiss Alps incorporates time lags to account for the damping effect between air and soil temperatures as well as the temporal autocorrelations typical for such chronological data sets. Based on the measured and modeled root-zone temperatures we analyzed. the suitability of the thermal treeline indicators seasonal mean and degree-days to describe the Alpine treeline position. The root-zone indicators were then compared to the respective indicators based on measured air temperatures, with all indicators calculated for two different indicator period lengths. For both temperature types (root-zone and air) and both indicator periods, seasonal mean temperature was the indicator with the lowest variation across all treeline sites. The resulting indicator values were 7.0 degrees C +/- 0.4 SD (short indicator period), respectively 7.1 degrees C +/- 0.5 SD (long indicator period) for root-zone temperature, and 8.0 degrees C +/- 0.6 SD (short indicator period), respectively 8.8 degrees C +/- 0.8 SD (long indicator period) for air temperature. Generally, a higher variation was found for all air based treeline indicators when compared to the root-zone temperature indicators. Despite this, we showed that treeline indicators calculated from both air and root-zone temperatures can be used to describe the Alpine treeline position.