Regression and hypothesis tests for multivariate GNSS state time series

A satellite based observation system can continuously or repeatedly generate a user state vector time series that may contain useful information. One typical example is the collection of International GNSS Services (IGS) station daily and weekly combined solutions. Another example is the epoch-by-epoch kinematic position time series of a receiver derived by a GPS real time kinematic (RTK) technique. Although some multivariate analysis techniques have been adopted to assess the noise characteristics of multivariate state time series, statistic testings are limited to univariate time series. After review of frequently used hypotheses test statistics in univariate analysis of GNSS state time series, the paper presents a number of T-squared multivariate analysis statistics for use in the analysis of multivariate GNSS state time series. These T-squared test statistics have taken the correlation between coordinate components into account, which is neglected in univariate analysis. Numerical analysis was conducted with the multi-year time series of an IGS station to schematically demonstrate the results from the multivariate hypothesis testing in comparison with the univariate hypothesis testing results. The results have demonstrated that, in general, the testing for multivariate mean shifts and outliers tends to reject less data samples than the testing for univariate mean shifts and outliers under the same confidence level. It is noted that neither univariate nor multivariate data analysis methods are intended to replace physical analysis. Instead, these should be treated as complementary statistical methods for a prior or posteriori investigations. Physical analysis is necessary subsequently to refine and interpret the results.

Groundwater visualisation system (GVS) : a software framework for integrated display and interrogation of conceptual hydrogeological models, data and time-series animation

Management of groundwater systems requires realistic conceptual hydrogeological models as a framework for numerical simulation modelling, but also for system understanding and communicating this to stakeholders and the broader community. To help overcome these challenges we developed GVS (Groundwater Visualisation System), a stand-alone desktop software package that uses interactive 3D visualisation and animation techniques. The goal was a user-friendly groundwater management tool that could support a range of existing real-world and pre-processed data, both surface and subsurface, including geology and various types of temporal hydrological information. GVS allows these data to be integrated into a single conceptual hydrogeological model. In addition, 3D geological models produced externally using other software packages, can readily be imported into GVS models, as can outputs of simulations (e.g. piezometric surfaces) produced by software such as MODFLOW or FEFLOW. Boreholes can be integrated, showing any down-hole data and properties, including screen information, intersected geology, water level data and water chemistry. Animation is used to display spatial and temporal changes, with time-series data such as rainfall, standing water levels and electrical conductivity, displaying dynamic processes. Time and space variations can be presented using a range of contouring and colour mapping techniques, in addition to interactive plots of time-series parameters. Other types of data, for example, demographics and cultural information, can also be readily incorporated. The GVS software can execute on a standard Windows or Linux-based PC with a minimum of 2 GB RAM, and the model output is easy and inexpensive to distribute, by download or via USB/DVD/CD. Example models are described here for three groundwater systems in Queensland, northeastern Australia: two unconfined alluvial groundwater systems with intensive irrigation, the Lockyer Valley and the upper Condamine Valley, and the Surat Basin, a large sedimentary basin of confined artesian aquifers. This latter example required more detail in the hydrostratigraphy, correlation of formations with drillholes and visualisation of simulation piezometric surfaces. Both alluvial system GVS models were developed during drought conditions to support government strategies to implement groundwater management. The Surat Basin model was industry sponsored research, for coal seam gas groundwater management and community information and consultation. The “virtual” groundwater systems in these 3D GVS models can be interactively interrogated by standard functions, plus production of 2D cross-sections, data selection from the 3D scene, rear end database and plot displays. A unique feature is that GVS allows investigation of time-series data across different display modes, both 2D and 3D. GVS has been used successfully as a tool to enhance community/stakeholder understanding and knowledge of groundwater systems and is of value for training and educational purposes. Projects completed confirm that GVS provides a powerful support to management and decision making, and as a tool for interpretation of groundwater system hydrological processes. A highly effective visualisation output is the production of short videos (e.g. 2–5 min) based on sequences of camera ‘fly-throughs’ and screen images. Further work involves developing support for multi-screen displays and touch-screen technologies, distributed rendering, gestural interaction systems. To highlight the visualisation and animation capability of the GVS software, links to related multimedia hosted online sites are included in the references.

Condition-based maintenance optimisation without a predetermined strategy structure for a two-component series system

Most existing research on maintenance optimisation for multi-component systems only considers the lifetime distribution of the components. When the condition-based maintenance (CBM) strategy is adopted for multi-component systems, the strategy structure becomes complex due to the large number of component states and their combinations. Consequently, some predetermined maintenance strategy structures are often assumed before the maintenance optimisation of a multi-component system in a CBM context. Developing these predetermined strategy structure needs expert experience and the optimality of these strategies is often not proofed. This paper proposed a maintenance optimisation method that does not require any predetermined strategy structure for a two-component series system. The proposed method is developed based on the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP). A simulation study shows that the proposed method can identify the optimal maintenance strategy adaptively for different maintenance costs and parameters of degradation processes. The optimal maintenance strategy structure is also investigated in the simulation study, which provides reference for further research in maintenance optimisation of multi-component systems.

Exact and approximate Bayesian inference for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new simulation methodology in order to obtain exact or approximate Bayesian inference for models for low-valued count time series data that have computationally demanding likelihood functions. The algorithm fits within the framework of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) methods. The particle filter requires only model simulations and, in this regard, our approach has connections with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, an advantage of using the PMCMC approach in this setting is that simulated data can be matched with data observed one-at-a-time, rather than attempting to match on the full dataset simultaneously or on a low-dimensional non-sufficient summary statistic, which is common practice in ABC. For low-valued count time series data we find that it is often computationally feasible to match simulated data with observed data exactly. Our particle filter maintains $N$ particles by repeating the simulation until $N+1$ exact matches are obtained. Our algorithm creates an unbiased estimate of the likelihood, resulting in exact posterior inferences when included in an MCMC algorithm. In cases where exact matching is computationally prohibitive, a tolerance is introduced as per ABC. A novel aspect of our approach is that we introduce auxiliary variables into our particle filter so that partially observed and/or non-Markovian models can be accommodated. We demonstrate that Bayesian model choice problems can be easily handled in this framework.

Discussion paper and working paper series : Motivations, expectations and experiences of Australian rural and regional planners

Despite playing an extremely important role in shaping communities, the role and contribution of planners is not widely understood or acknowledged. At the same time, there is a shortage of planners in Australia, especially in non-urban areas. Thus, though an online survey of 185 rural and regional planners, this research explores their motivations, expectations and experiences. Most enjoyed and felt confident in their role, explaining that they valued the relaxed family orientated rural lifestyle and the varied nature of the planning work. Although they sometimes felt isolated, the non-urban location provided quicker progression to senior roles, the ability to engage directly with the community and to see the consequences of their decisions. Only half felt their education had prepared them well for their role, citing gaps in terms of computerised modelling, team leadership and conflict resolution skills. Their feedback centred on providing a more practical course, focussing more on regional planning, and encouraging urban and rural experience placements. As the first study to quantifiably explore rural and regional Australian planners perceptions of their role and challenges, the findings illustrate current experiences, key planning challenges, perceived educational gaps and future priorities.

Rapid quantification of methamphetamine: using Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) and Chemometrics

In Australia and increasingly worldwide, methamphetamine is one of the most commonly seized drugs analysed by forensic chemists. The current well-established GC/MS methods used to identify and quantify methamphetamine are lengthy, expensive processes, but often rapid analysis is requested by undercover police leading to an interest in developing this new analytical technique. Ninety six illicit drug seizures containing methamphetamine (0.1% - 78.6%) were analysed using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy with an Attenuated Total Reflectance attachment and Chemometrics. Two Partial Least Squares models were developed, one using the principal Infrared Spectroscopy peaks of methamphetamine and the other a Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model. Both of these models were refined to choose the variables that were most closely associated with the methamphetamine % vector. Both of the models were excellent, with the principal peaks in the Partial Least Squares model having Root Mean Square Error of Prediction 3.8, R2 0.9779 and lower limit of quantification 7% methamphetamine. The Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model had lower limit of quantification 0.3% methamphetamine, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction 5.2 and R2 0.9637. Such models offer rapid and effective methods for screening illicit drug samples to determine the percentage of methamphetamine they contain.

Vibrational spectroscopic characterization of the phosphate mineral series eosphorite–childrenite–(Mn,Fe)Al(PO4)(OH)2·(H2O)

The phosphate mineral series eosphorite–childrenite–(Mn,Fe)Al(PO4)(OH)2·(H2O) has been studied using a combination of electron probe analysis and vibrational spectroscopy. Eosphorite is the manganese rich mineral with lower iron content in comparison with the childrenite which has higher iron and lower manganese content. The determined formulae of the two studied minerals are: (Mn0.72,Fe0.13,Ca0.01)(Al)1.04(PO4, OHPO3)1.07(OH1.89,F0.02)·0.94(H2O) for SAA-090 and (Fe0.49,Mn0.35,Mg0.06,Ca0.04)(Al)1.03(PO4, OHPO3)1.05(OH)1.90·0.95(H2O) for SAA-072. Raman spectroscopy enabled the observation of bands at 970 cm−1 and 1011 cm−1 assigned to monohydrogen phosphate, phosphate and dihydrogen phosphate units. Differences are observed in the area of the peaks between the two eosphorite minerals. Raman bands at 562 cm−1, 595 cm−1, and 608 cm−1 are assigned to the �4 bending modes of the PO4, HPO4 and H2PO4 units; Raman bands at 405 cm−1, 427 cm−1 and 466 cm−1 are attributed to the �2 modes of these units. Raman bands of the hydroxyl and water stretching modes are observed. Vibrational spectroscopy enabled details of the molecular structure of the eosphorite mineral series to be determined.

Evidence for the adsorption of molecules at special sites located at copper/zinc oxide interfaces. Part 2. -- A fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy study of methanol adsorption on reduced and oxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalysts

FTIR spectra are reported of methanol adsorbed at 295 K on ZnO/SiO 2, on reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 and on Cu/ZnO/SiO2 which had been preoxidised by exposure to nitrous oxide. Methanol on ZnO/SiO2 gave methoxy species on ZnO and SiO, in addition to both strongly and weakly physisorbed methanol on SiO2. The corresponding adsorption of methanol on reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 also gave methoxy species on Cu and a small amount of bridging formate. Reaction of methanol with a reoxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst resulted in an enhanced quantity of methoxy species on Cu. Heating adsorbed species on Cu/ZnO/SiO2 at 393 K led to the loss of methoxy groups on Cu and the concomitant formation of formate species on both ZnO and Cu. The comparable reaction on a reoxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst gave an increased amount of formate species on ZnO and this correlated with an increased quantity of methoxy groups lost from Cu. An explanation is given in terms of adsorption of formate and formaldehyde species at special sites located at the copper/zinc oxide interface.

Evidence for the adsorption of molecules at special sites located at copper/zinc oxide interfaces: Part 1. -- A Fourier-transform infrared study of formic acid and formaldehyde adsorption on reduced and oxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalysts

Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectra are reported of formic acid and formaldehyde on ZnO/SiO2, reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 and reoxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst. Formic acid adsorption on ZnO/SiO2 produced mainly bidentate zinc formate species with a lesser quantity of unidentate zinc formate. Formic acid on reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst resulted not only in the formation of bridging copper formate structures but also in an enhanced amount of formate relative to that for ZnO/SiO2 catalyst. Formic acid on reoxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 gave unidentate formate species on copper in addition to zinc formate moieties. The interaction of formaldehyde with ZnO/SiO2 catalyst resulted in the formation of zinc formate species. The same reaction on reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst gave bridging formate on copper and a remarkable increase in the quantity of formate species associated with the zinc oxide. Adsorption of formaldehyde on a reoxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst produced bridging copper formate and again an apparent increase in the concentration of zinc formate species. An explanation in terms of the adsorption of molecules at special sites located at the interface between copper and zinc oxide is given.

A combined temperature-programmed reaction spectroscopy and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy study of CO2/H2 and CO/CO2/H2 interactions with model ZnO/SiO2, Cu/SiO2 and Cu/ZnO/SiO2 methanol-synthesis catalysts

The reaction of CO2 and H2 with ZnO/SiO2 catalyst at 295 K gave predominantly hydrogencarbonate on zinc oxide and a small quantity of formate was evolved after heating at 393 K. Elevation of the reaction temperature to 503 K enhanced the rate of formation of zinc formate species. Significantly these formate species decomposed at 573 K almost entirely to CO2 and H2. Even after exposure of CO2-H2 or CO-CO2-H2 mixtures to highly defected ZnO/SiO2 catalyst, the formate species produced still decomposed to give CO2 and H2. It was concluded that carboxylate species which were formed at oxygen anion vacancies on polar Zn planes were not significantly hydrogenated to formate. Consequently it was proposed that the non-polar planes on zinc oxide contained sites which were specific for the synthesis of methanol. The interaction of CO2 and H2 with reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst at 393 K gave copper formate species in addition to substantial quantities of formate created at interfacial sites between copper and zinc oxide. It was deduced that interfacial formate species were produced from the hydrogenation of interfacial bidentate carbonate structures. The relevance of interfacial formate species in the methanol synthesis reaction is discussed. Experiments concerning the reaction of CO2-H2 with physical mixtures of Cu/SiO2 and ZnO/SiO2 gave results which were simply characteristic of the individual components. By careful consideration of previous data a detailed proposal regarding the role of spillover hydrogen is outlined. Admission of CO to a gaseous CO2-H2 feedstock resulted in a considerably diminished amount of formate species on copper. This was ascribed to a combination of over-reduction of the surface and site-blockage.

Evidence for the adsorption of molecules at special sites located at copper/zinc oxide interfaces. Part 3. -- Fourier-transform infrared study of methyl formate adsorption on reduced and oxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalysts

FTIR spectra are reported of methyl formate adsorbed at 295 K on ZnO/SiO2, reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 and on Cu/ZnO/SiO2 which had been preoxidised by exposure to nitrous oxide. Methyl formate on ZnO/SiO2 gave adsorbed zinc formate species and strongly physisorbed molecular methanol on silica. The comparable reaction of methyl formate with reduced Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst produced bridging formate species on copper and a diminished quantity of zinc formate relative to that formed on ZnO/SiO2 catalyst. This effect is explained in terms of site blockage on the ZnO surface by small copper clusters. Addition of methyl formate to a reoxidised Cu/ZnO/SiO2 catalyst produced a considerably greater amount of formate species on zinc oxide and methoxy groups on copper were detected. The increase in concentration of zinc formate species was rationalised in terms of rearrangement of unidentate copper formate species to become bonded to copper and zinc oxide sites located at the interface between these two components.

A fourier-transform infrared study of CO2 and CO2/H2 interactions with caesium-doped copper catalysts

FTIR spectra are reported of CO2 and COi/Hi on a silica-supported caesium-doped copper catalyst. Adsorption of COj on a "caesium"/silica surface resulted in the formation of COj and complexed CO species. Exposure of CO2 to' a caesium-doped reduced copper catalyst produced not only these species but also two forms of adsorbed carboxylate giving bands at 1550, 1510, 1365 and 1345 cm"1. Reaction of carboxylate species with hydrogen at 388 K gave formate species on copper and caesium oxide in addition to methoxy groups associated with caesium oxide. Methoxy species were not detected on undoped copper catalyst suggesting that caesium may be a promoter for the methanol synthesis reaction. Methanol decomposition on a caesium-doped copper catalyst produced a small number of formate species on copper and caesium oxide. Methoxy groups on caesium oxide decomposed to CO and U.2, and subsequent reaction between CO and adsorbed oxygen resulted in carboxylate formation. Methoxy species located at interfacial sites appeared to exhibit unusual adsorption properties.

Visual front-end wars : Viola-Jones face detector vs Fourier Lucas-Kanade

The performance of visual speech recognition (VSR) systems are significantly influenced by the accuracy of the visual front-end. The current state-of-the-art VSR systems use off-the-shelf face detectors such as Viola- Jones (VJ) which has limited reliability for changes in illumination and head poses. For a VSR system to perform well under these conditions, an accurate visual front end is required. This is an important problem to be solved in many practical implementations of audio visual speech recognition systems, for example in automotive environments for an efficient human-vehicle computer interface. In this paper, we re-examine the current state-of-the-art VSR by comparing off-the-shelf face detectors with the recently developed Fourier Lucas-Kanade (FLK) image alignment technique. A variety of image alignment and visual speech recognition experiments are performed on a clean dataset as well as with a challenging automotive audio-visual speech dataset. Our results indicate that the FLK image alignment technique can significantly outperform off-the shelf face detectors, but requires frequent fine-tuning.

Raman, infrared and near-infrared spectroscopic characterization of the herderite-hydroxylherderite mineral series

Natural single-crystal specimens of the herderite-hydroxylherderite series from Brazil, with general formula CaBePO4(F,OH), were investigated by electron microprobe, Raman, infrared and near-infrared spectroscopies. The minerals occur as secondary products in granitic pegmatites. Herderite and hydroxylherderite minerals show extensive solid solution formation. The Raman spectra of hydroxylherderite are characterized by bands at around 985 and 998 cm-1, assigned to ν1 symmetric stretching mode of the HOPO33- and PO43- units. Raman bands at around 1085, 1128 and 1138 cm-1 are attributed to both the HOP and PO antisymmetric stretching vibrations. The set of Raman bands observed at 563, 568, 577, 598, 616 and 633 cm-1 are assigned to the ν4 out of plane bending modes of the PO4 and H2PO4 units. The OH Raman stretching vibrations of hydroxylherderite were observed ranging from 3626 cm-1 to 3609 cm-1. The infrared stretching vibrations of hydroxylherderites were observed between 3606 cm-1 and 3599 cm-1. By using a Libowitzky type function, hydrogen bond distances based upon the OH stretching bands were calculated. Characteristic NIR bands at around 6961 and 7054 cm-1 were assigned to the first overtone of the fundamental, whilst NIR bands at 10194 and 10329 cm-1 are assigned to the second overtone of the fundamental OH stretching vibration. Insight into the structure of the herderite-hydroxylherderite series is assessed by vibrational spectroscopy.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.