Risco climático, vulnerabilidade socioespacial e eventos climáticos extremos relacionados ao calor e ao frio no estado do Rio Grande do Sul- Brasil

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Proactive management of extreme prematurity: disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists

Objective: To verify, in extremely preterm infants, if disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists regarding proactive management is associated with early death. Study Design: Prospective cohort of 484 infants with 23(0/7) to 26(6/7) weeks, without malformations, born from January 2006 to December 2009 in eight Brazilian hospitals. Pro-active management was defined as indication of >= 1 dose of antenatal steroid or cesarean section (obstetrician) and resuscitation at birth according to the international guidelines (neonatologist). Main outcome was neonatal death in the first 24 h of life. Result: Obstetricians and neonatologists disagreed in 115 (24%) patients: only neonatologists were proactive in 107 of them. Disagreement between professionals increased 2.39 times the chance of death in the first day (95% confidence interval 1.40 to 4.09), adjusted for center and maternal/neonatal clinical conditions. Conclusion: In infants with 23 to 26 weeks of gestation, disagreement between obstetricians and neonatologists, translated as lack of antenatal steroids and/or vaginal delivery, despite resuscitation procedures, increases the odds of death in the first day. Journal of Perinatology (2012) 32, 913-919; doi:10.1038/jp.2012.28; published online 29 March 2012

A large Cervidae Holocene accumulation in Eastern Brazil: an example of extreme taphonomical control in a cave environment

A remarkable cervid bone accumulation occurs at a single passage (named Cervid Passage; CP) at Lapa Nova, a maze cave in eastern Brazil. CP lies away from cave entrances, is a typical pitfall passage and contains bone remains of at least 121 cervids, besides few bats, peccaries and rodents remains. There is no evidence of water (or sediment) flow at the site and in general bones lack post depositional alterations and display anatomical proximity, suggesting that the majority of the remains found inside CP (mainly cervids) are due to animals that after entering the cave got trapped in the site. Observations suggest that two entrances could have provided access to cervids (and the few other animals, besides bats), either by falling inside the cave or by entering by their own free will. Once inside the cave, the maze pattern would make route finding difficult, and of all passage intersections, only the one leading to CP would result in a non-return situation, starving the animal to death. Radiocarbon dates suggest that animal entrapment occurred during at least 5 thousand years, during the Holocene. The reasons why mainly cervids were found are unknown but they are probably related to the biology of this group coupled with the fact that caves provide several specific taphonomic processes that may account for a strong bias in bone accumulation. Indeed, the frequent occurrence of Cervidae in both the fossil and sub-fossil record in Brazilian caves may be related to an overall high faunal abundance or may suggest that these animals were especially prone to enter caves, perhaps in search of nutrients (as cave saltpetre) or water.

Extreme bariatric endoscopy: stenting to reconnect the pouch to the gastrojejunostomy after a Roux-en-Y gastric bypass

Among the possible complications of bariatric surgery, fistula and partial dehiscence of the gastric suture are well known. Reoperation often is required but results in significant morbidity. Endoscopic treatment of some bariatric complications is feasible and efficient. A modified metallic stent was placed between the gastroaesophageal junction and the alimentary jejunal limb, allowing the passage of a nasoenteric feeding tube into the jejunal limb. Endoscopy showed disruption of nearly the entire staple line at the gastric pouch. The modified stent was placed and allowed wound healing. After 31 days, the stent had migrated and was removed endoscopically. Total clousure of the fistula was reported 30 days afterward. Endoscopic treatment of some bariatric surgery complications is feasible and has been reported previously. This report presents a case of a serious leakage treated by placement of a self-expandable metal stent to bridge the fistula.

An Extreme Case of Plant-Insect Codiversification: Figs and Fig-Pollinating Wasps

It is thought that speciation in phytophagous insects is often due to colonization of novel host plants, because radiations of plant and insect lineages are typically asynchronous. Recent phylogenetic comparisons have supported this model of diversification for both insect herbivores and specialized pollinators. An exceptional case where contemporaneous plant-insect diversification might be expected is the obligate mutualism between fig trees (Ficus species, Moraceae) and their pollinating wasps (Agaonidae, Hymenoptera). The ubiquity and ecological significance of this mutualism in tropical and subtropical ecosystems has long intrigued biologists, but the systematic challenge posed by >750 interacting species pairs has hindered progress toward understanding its evolutionary history. In particular, taxon sampling and analytical tools have been insufficient for large-scale cophylogenetic analyses. Here, we sampled nearly 200 interacting pairs of fig and wasp species from across the globe. Two supermatrices were assembled: on an average, wasps had sequences from 77% of 6 genes (5.6 kb), figs had sequences from 60% of 5 genes (5.5 kb), and overall 850 new DNA sequences were generated for this study. We also developed a new analytical tool, Jane 2, for event-based phylogenetic reconciliation analysis of very large data sets. Separate Bayesian phylogenetic analyses for figs and fig wasps under relaxed molecular clock assumptions indicate Cretaceous diversification of crown groups and contemporaneous divergence for nearly half of all fig and pollinator lineages. Event-based cophylogenetic analyses further support the codiversification hypothesis. Biogeographic analyses indicate that the present-day distribution of fig and pollinator lineages is consistent with a Eurasian origin and subsequent dispersal, rather than with Gondwanan vicariance. Overall, our findings indicate that the fig-pollinator mutualism represents an extreme case among plant-insect interactions of coordinated dispersal and long-term codiversification.

Statistical assessment of annual patterns in coastal extreme wave conditions

[EN]The annual cycle in extreme values of significant wave height is examined by transforming the timing ofthe storm peaks in a circular variable, with the aim of taking advantage of the many tests devised to explore uniformity on the circle. The use of four different but complementary uniformity tests makes possible a robust assessment of the annual cycle statistical significance. Seasonality of storms in a long time series of significant wave heights, measured in a coastal zone, is examined. The presence of a seasonal pattem is statistically beyond doubt.

Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Prediction of new crystal structures under extreme conditions

One of the most important challenges in chemistry and material science is the connection between the contents of a compound and its chemical and physical properties. In solids, these are greatly influenced by the crystal structure.rnrnThe prediction of hitherto unknown crystal structures with regard to external conditions like pressure and temperature is therefore one of the most important goals to achieve in theoretical chemistry. The stable structure of a compound is the global minimum of the potential energy surface, which is the high dimensional representation of the enthalpy of the investigated system with respect to its structural parameters. The fact that the complexity of the problem grows exponentially with the system size is the reason why it can only be solved via heuristic strategies.rnrnImprovements to the artificial bee colony method, where the local exploration of the potential energy surface is done by a high number of independent walkers, are developed and implemented. This results in an improved communication scheme between these walkers. This directs the search towards the most promising areas of the potential energy surface.rnrnThe minima hopping method uses short molecular dynamics simulations at elevated temperatures to direct the structure search from one local minimum of the potential energy surface to the next. A modification, where the local information around each minimum is extracted and used in an optimization of the search direction, is developed and implemented. Our method uses this local information to increase the probability of finding new, lower local minima. This leads to an enhanced performance in the global optimization algorithm.rnrnHydrogen is a highly relevant system, due to the possibility of finding a metallic phase and even superconductor with a high critical temperature. An application of a structure prediction method on SiH12 finds stable crystal structures in this material. Additionally, it becomes metallic at relatively low pressures.

Extreme Creativity

Bucknell University's instructional technology division of Library and IT partnered with Professor Carmen Gillespie for an innovative course called "Extreme Creativity".

Extensive clonal spread and extreme longevity in saw palmetto, a foundation clonal plant

The lack of effective tools have hampered our ability to assess the size, growth and ages of clonal plants. With Serenoa repens (saw palmetto) as a model, we introduce a novel analytical framework that integrates DNA fingerprinting and mathematical modelling to simulate growth and estimate ages of clonal plants. We also demonstrate the application of such life-history information of clonal plants to provide insight into management plans. Serenoa is an ecologically important foundation species in many Southeastern United States ecosystems; yet, many land managers consider Serenoa a troublesome invasive plant. Accordingly, management plans have been developed to reduce or eliminate Serenoa with little understanding of its life history. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we genotyped 263 Serenoa and 134 Sabal etonia (a sympatric non-clonal palmetto) samples collected from a 20 X 20 m study plot in Florida scrub. Sabal samples were used to assign small field-unidentifiable palmettos to Serenoa or Sabal and also as a negative control for clone detection. We then mathematically modelled clonal networks to estimate genet ages. Our results suggest that Serenoa predominantly propagate via vegetative sprouts and 10000-year-old genets may be common, while showing no evidence of clone formation by Sabal. The results of this and our previous studies suggest that: (i) Serenoa has been part of scrub associations for thousands of years, (ii) Serenoa invasion are unlikely and (ii) once Serenoa is eliminated from local communities, its restoration will be difficult. Reevaluation of the current management tools and plans is an urgent task.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Extensive clonal spread and extreme longevity in saw palmetto, a foundation clonal plant

The lack of effective tools has hampered our ability to assess the size, growth and ages of clonal plants. With Serenoa repens (saw palmetto) as a model, we introduce a novel analytical frame work that integrates DNA fingerprinting and mathematical modelling to simulate growth and estimate ages of clonal plants. We also demonstrate the application of such life-history information of clonal plants to provide insight into management plans. Serenoa is an ecologically important foundation species in many Southeastern United States ecosystems; yet, many land managers consider Serenoa a troublesome invasive plant. Accordingly, management plans have been developed to reduce or eliminate Serenoa with little understanding of its life history. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we genotyped 263 Serenoa and 134 Sabal etonia (a sympatric non-clonal palmetto) samples collected from a 20 x 20 m study plot in Florida scrub. Sabal samples were used to assign small field-unidentifiable palmettos to Serenoa or Sabal and also as a negative control for clone detection. We then mathematically modelled clonal networks to estimate genet ages. Our results suggest that Serenoa predominantly propagate via vegetative sprouts and 10000-year-old genets maybe common, while showing no evidence of clone formation by Sabal. The results of this and our previous studies suggest that: (i) Serenoa has been part of scrub associations for thousands of years, (ii) Serenoa invasions are unlikely and (ii) once Serenoa is eliminated from local communities, its restoration will be difficult. Reevaluation of the current management tools and plans is an urgent task.