The properties of the International Classification of the External Cause of Injury when used as an instrument for injury prevention research

Objective: To demonstrate properties of the International Classification of the External Cause of Injury (ICECI) as a tool for use in injury prevention research. Methods: The Childhood Injury Prevention Study (CHIPS) is a prospective longitudinal follow up study of a cohort of 871 children 5 - 12 years of age, with a nested case crossover component. The ICECI is the latest tool in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) family and has been designed to improve the precision of coding injury events. The details of all injury events recorded in the study, as well as all measured injury related exposures, were coded using the ICECI. This paper reports a substudy on the utility and practicability of using the ICECI in the CHIPS to record exposures. Interrater reliability was quantified for a sample of injured participants using the Kappa statistic to measure concordance between codes independently coded by two research staff. Results: There were 767 diaries collected at baseline and event details from 563 injuries and exposure details from injury crossover periods. There were no event, location, or activity details which could not be coded using the ICECI. Kappa statistics for concordance between raters within each of the dimensions ranged from 0.31 to 0.93 for the injury events and 0.94 and 0.97 for activity and location in the control periods. Discussion: This study represents the first detailed account of the properties of the ICECI revealed by its use in a primary analytic epidemiological study of injury prevention. The results of this study provide considerable support for the ICECI and its further use.

Description and critical appraisal of principal components analysis (PCA) methodology applied to pulsed-field gel electrophoresis profiles of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus isolates

Principal components analysis (PCA) has been described for over 50 years; however, it is rarely applied to the analysis of epidemiological data. In this study PCA was critically appraised in its ability to reveal relationships between pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles of methicillin- resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in comparison to the more commonly employed cluster analysis and representation by dendrograms. The PFGE type following SmaI chromosomal digest was determined for 44 multidrug-resistant hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MR-HA-MRSA) isolates, two multidrug-resistant community-acquired MRSA (MR-CA-MRSA), 50 hospital-acquired MRSA (HA-MRSA) isolates (from the University Hospital Birmingham, NHS Trust, UK) and 34 community-acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) isolates (from general practitioners in Birmingham, UK). Strain relatedness was determined using Dice band-matching with UPGMA clustering and PCA. The results indicated that PCA revealed relationships between MRSA strains, which were more strongly correlated with known epidemiology, most likely because, unlike cluster analysis, PCA does not have the constraint of generating a hierarchic classification. In addition, PCA provides the opportunity for further analysis to identify key polymorphic bands within complex genotypic profiles, which is not always possible with dendrograms. Here we provide a detailed description of a PCA method for the analysis of PFGE profiles to complement further the epidemiological study of infectious disease. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatially clustered associations in health GIS

Overlaying maps using a desktop GIS is often the first step of a multivariate spatial analysis. The potential of this operation has increased considerably as data sources and Web services to manipulate them are becoming widely available via the Internet. Standards from the OGC enable such geospatial mashups to be seamless and user driven, involving discovery of thematic data. The user is naturally inclined to look for spatial clusters and correlation of outcomes. Using classical cluster detection scan methods to identify multivariate associations can be problematic in this context, because of a lack of control on or knowledge about background populations. For public health and epidemiological mapping, this limiting factor can be critical but often the focus is on spatial identification of risk factors associated with health or clinical status. Spatial entropy index HSu for the ScankOO analysis of the hypothetical dataset using a vicinity which is fixed by the number of points without distinction between their labels. (The size of the labels is proportional to the inverse of the index) In this article we point out that this association itself can ensure some control on underlying populations, and develop an exploratory scan statistic framework for multivariate associations. Inference using statistical map methodologies can be used to test the clustered associations. The approach is illustrated with a hypothetical data example and an epidemiological study on community MRSA. Scenarios of potential use for online mashups are introduced but full implementation is left for further research.

Spatially clustered associations in health related geospatial data

Overlaying maps using a desktop GIS is often the first step of a multivariate spatial analysis. The potential of this operation has increased considerably as data sources an dWeb services to manipulate them are becoming widely available via the Internet. Standards from the OGC enable such geospatial ‘mashups’ to be seamless and user driven, involving discovery of thematic data. The user is naturally inclined to look for spatial clusters and ‘correlation’ of outcomes. Using classical cluster detection scan methods to identify multivariate associations can be problematic in this context, because of a lack of control on or knowledge about background populations. For public health and epidemiological mapping, this limiting factor can be critical but often the focus is on spatial identification of risk factors associated with health or clinical status. In this article we point out that this association itself can ensure some control on underlying populations, and develop an exploratory scan statistic framework for multivariate associations. Inference using statistical map methodologies can be used to test the clustered associations. The approach is illustrated with a hypothetical data example and an epidemiological study on community MRSA. Scenarios of potential use for online mashups are introduced but full implementation is left for further research.

Iraqi Birth Defects and the WHO Report

Since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, epidemics of birth defects and cancers are rising in many Iraqi cities. In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Iraqi Ministry of Health (MoH) undertook a large-scale epidemiological study to determine the prevalence of birth defects in the Iraqi population. A report which appeared on the WHO website in September 2013, claims that "The rates for spontaneous abortion, stillbirths and congenital birth defects found in the [Iraq] study are consistent with or even lower than international estimates." This article discusses the severe shortcomings of this report and questions its reliability .

Transplantes de córneas no estado do Rio Grande do Norte: aspectos epidemiológicos e clínicos

This study aimed to characterize in a clinical and epidemiological way the patients who are on a waiting list for transplantation and the patients transplanted with corneal tissue in a corneal transplants reference service in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. It is an epidemiological study of a quantitative approach, with cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical cut including all patients on the waiting list for transplantation (population A) and the patients already transplanted with a corneal tissue (population B) in a reference service. In population A, there was a census conducted of patients on the waiting list for corneal transplantation (n=62 patients). In population B, the sample was non-probabilistic and corresponded to all corneal transplants performed in the service in the period from 2010 to 2014 (n=258). This study is approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, in Opinion 876 177 and CAAE 37533014.8.0000.5537. Data were collected in full in the period from January to April 2015, by two instruments built to systematize the necessary data collection. After being coded and tabulated, data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences software, version 20.0. The definition of variables and their distribution patterns were presented as frequencies and measures of central tendency while, for multivariate analysis, the effect of magnitude measures were applied (prevalence ratio) and measures of association (chi-square test or Fisher's exact test) for a 0.05 significance level. The results are shown in two scientific articles coming from the field survey data. It was found that the epidemiological profile of patients on the waiting list (n=62) showed a prevalence of individuals aged over 50 years old, female (54.84%) and residents of the middle region of East Rio Grande do Norte (66.13%). The clinical profile of patients with corneal transplantation (n=258) was characterized by being male (51.16%) with an average age of 49.33 years old and 57.75% were coming from East Rio Grande do Norte. The average time on the waiting list was 172.63 days in elective transplants and 9.03 days in urgent transplants. Keratoconus was the main indicator condition to perform the transplant. For patients on the waiting list, the variable “type of disorder of the cornea” showed statistically significant association with gender and age. For patients with corneal transplants, the variable "type of disorder of the cornea" was associated with the variables gender, age, previous surgery, failure of previous graft, classification of the eye and glaucoma. By characterizing the clinical and epidemiological profile of corneal transplants, it is possible to question the reality, pointing about the care that should be offered and develop targeted interventions to collective and individual needs intrinsic to patients who need this surgery as a treatment option.

Levantamentos epidemiológicos em saúde bucal: análise da metodologia proposta pela Organização Mundial da Saúde

Epidemiological surveys are important for obtaining information on the prevalence and etiology of mouth diseases, since the data collected permit health actions to be planned, performed, and assessed. Methodological uniformity is necessary, however, to maintain reproductibility, validity, and reliability, and to allow national and international comparisons. The initiative of the World Health Organization (WHO) as an advisor in ongoing surveys has been extremely useful, stimulating standardization in all countries. In 1991, a Portuguese version of the 1987 third edition of Oral Health Surveys - basic methods, an instruction manual for performing epidemiological surveys, was published and became a reference for many parts of Brazil and the World. The present analysis found conflicting points in relation to the sample size, calibration of the examiners, and criteria for evaluating oral health and treatment needs. In conclusion, due to the dynamic characteristics of scientific knowledge and, considering the regional differences in relation to the development of oral diseases, we recommend that proposals for standardizing surveys be checked periodically. Other important issues may have not been detected in this analysis, urging a thorough discussion within the dentistry community as a whole.

Levantamentos epidemiológicos em saúde bucal: análise da metodologia proposta pela Organização Mundial da Saúde

Epidemiological surveys are important for obtaining information on the prevalence and etiology of mouth diseases, since the data collected permit health actions to be planned, performed, and assessed. Methodological uniformity is necessary, however, to maintain reproductibility, validity, and reliability, and to allow national and international comparisons. The initiative of the World Health Organization (WHO) as an advisor in ongoing surveys has been extremely useful, stimulating standardization in all countries. In 1991, a Portuguese version of the 1987 third edition of Oral Health Surveys - basic methods, an instruction manual for performing epidemiological surveys, was published and became a reference for many parts of Brazil and the World. The present analysis found conflicting points in relation to the sample size, calibration of the examiners, and criteria for evaluating oral health and treatment needs. In conclusion, due to the dynamic characteristics of scientific knowledge and, considering the regional differences in relation to the development of oral diseases, we recommend that proposals for standardizing surveys be checked periodically. Other important issues may have not been detected in this analysis, urging a thorough discussion within the dentistry community as a whole.

Epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon hospital admission in children - a systematic review

Objectives: NICE/NPSA excluded children under 16 from their guidance concerning medicines reconciliation (MR) upon admission.1 Our aims and objectives of conducting the literature review was to identify the epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon admission, transfer and discharge in children, and if they require MR. Method: Six bibliographical databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, Web of Science and Biosis Previews) and selected key words were used to find epidemiological studies on medication discrepancies in children upon hospital admission, transfer and discharge (key words included ‘medication discrepancy’; ‘medication reconciliation’; ‘hospital admission’; ‘hospital discharge’; ‘hospital transfer’); studies where the data for children could be extracted were included. Results: From the 1239 articles found (in May 2011), eight of the articles had extractable paediatric information, (five from Canada, two from USA, one from UK). Five of the studies involved discrepancies on admission, one involved discrepancies on admission and transfer, one involved discrepancies at transfer and one considered discharge. The reference point used to compare against the admission, transfer and the discharge order differed in each of the studies. Four studies used a rating scale to assess the clinical significance of the discrepancies to demonstrate the potential adverse clinical outcome of patients in the absence of clinical intervention. Two studies2 3 used a rating scale that was used in adults.4 A study of paediatric neurosurgical patients found that initial hospital prescriptions for children differed from the preadmission prescriptions in 39% of occasions and 50% of all prescribing variations had the potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.2 A study by Coffey et al in general paediatric admissions in Canada showed 22% of patients experienced at least one discrepancy and 29% of the discrepancies had the potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.3 By comparison an epidemiological study in discrepancies in adults on admission had 38.6% of the discrepancies identified with a potential to cause moderate or severe discomfort or clinical deterioration.4 All the studies involved small samples or specific patient groups such as medically complex patients. However all of the studies demonstrated that discrepancies occurred among paediatric populations during transitions in care settings and mentioned MR as an intervention. Conclusion: The results have shown that discrepancies of medication upon hospital admission, transfer and discharge occur regularly in children. With only one published study in the UK looking at hospital admission in children, and no published articles on the incidence and epidemiology of medication discrepancies upon hospital transfer or discharge further research is required in a wider paediatric population. Further work is also required to define the required interventions to improve practice.

The Diet of Preschool Children in the Mediterranean Countries of the European Union: A Systematic Review

This systematic review discusses data on the dietary intake of preschool children living in the Mediterranean countries of the European Union, including the comparison with a Mediterranean-like diet and the association with nutritional status. Specifically, data from the multinational European Identification and Prevention on Dietary and life style induced health effects in children and infants (IDEFICS) study and national studies, such as the Estudo do Padrão Alimentar e de Crescimento Infantil (EPACI) study and Geração XXI cohort in Portugal, ALimentando la SAlud del MAñana (ALSALMA) study in Spain, Étude des Déterminants pré-et postnatals précoces du développement et de la santé de l'ENfant (EDEN) cohort in France, Nutrintake 636 study in Italy, and Growth, Exercise and Nutrition Epidemiological Study in preSchoolers (GENESIS) cohort in Greece, were analyzed. In the majority of countries, young children consumed fruit and vegetables quite frequently, but also consumed sugared beverages and snacks. High energy and high protein intakes mainly from dairy products were found in the majority of countries. The majority of children also consumed excessive sodium intake. Early high prevalence of overweight and obesity was found, and both early consumption of energy-dense foods and overweight seemed to track across toddler and preschool ages. Most children living in the analyzed countries showed low adherence to a Mediterranean-like diet, which in turn was associated with being overweight/obese. Unhealthier diets were associated with lower maternal educational level and parental unemployment. Programs promoting adherence of young children to the traditional Mediterranean diet should be part of a multi-intervention strategy for the prevention and treatment of pediatric overweight and obesity.

Implications de l’hétérogénéité comportementale et biologique pour la vaccination contre les virus du papillome humain au niveau de la population : modélisation mathématique, revue systématique et méta-analyse

Objectifs : Dans plusieurs pays la couverture vaccinale contre les virus du papillome humain (VPH) est associée aux déterminants sociaux des comportements sexuels et la participation au dépistage du cancer du col utérin. Ces vaccins protègent uniquement contre certains types de VPH, donc leur impact futur sur les VPH nonvaccinaux demeure incertain. L’hétérogénéité comportementale entre individus et biologique entre types de VPH affectera l’efficacité populationnelle de la vaccination contre les VPH. Les objectifs spécifiques de cette thèse étaient 1) de modéliser comment une couverture vaccinale inégale entre filles préadolescentes qui différeront selon leur activité sexuelle et leur participation au dépistage du cancer du col affectera l’efficacité populationnelle de la vaccination, 2) faire une synthèse et comparer les estimés d’efficacité croisée des vaccins contre les VPH dans des populations ADN-négatives aux VPH et 3) d’identifier, avec la modélisation, les devis d’étude épidémiologique qui réduisent les biais dans l’estimation des interactions biologiques entre types de VPH. Méthode : Nous avons utilisé des modèles de transmission dynamique et une revue systématique de la littérature pour répondre aux objectifs. 1) Nous avons modélisé une couverture vaccinale inégale entre filles qui différeront selon leur activité sexuelle et leur participation au dépistage, et examiné les changements postvaccination dans l’inégalité dans la prévalence des VPH et l’incidence des carcinomes malpighien (SCC) du col de l’utérus entre femmes ayant différents comportements. 2) Nous avons effectué une revue systématique et méta-analyse des efficacités croisées des vaccins contre les VPH estimées dans des populations ADNnégatives aux VPH. 3) Nous avons développé des modèles de transmission dynamique et d’interaction de deux types de VPH pour simuler les études épidémiologiques d’interactions entre les VPH. Résultats : Pour l’objectif 1), notre modèle de transmission prédit que l’efficacité populationnelle du vaccin dépendra de la distribution du vaccin dans la population. Après la vaccination, les inégalités absolues dans l’incidence de l’infection et des SCC entre groupes de femmes qui diffèrent selon leur activité sexuelle et leur participation au dépistage devraient diminuer. Inversement, les inégalités relatives pourraient augmenter si les femmes plus sexuellement actives et celles qui ne se font jamais dépister ont une couverture vaccinale moins élevée que les autres. Le taux d’incidence des SCC demeurera élevé chez les femmes qui ne sont jamais dépistées après la vaccination. L’efficacité croisée vaccinale et les interactions biologiques entre VPH ne sont pas encore assez bien caractérisées pour pouvoir prédire l’impact du vaccin sur les types de VPH nonvaccinaux. Pour l’objectif 2), notre méta-analyse des essais cliniques des vaccins suggère que le vaccin bivalent a une efficacité croisée significativement plus élevée que le quadrivalent contre les infections persistantes et lésions précancéreuses avec les VPH-31, 33 et 45. Les essais cliniques plus longs estiment une efficacité croisée plus faible. La modélisation des études épidémiologiques d’interactions pour l’objectif 3) montre que l’estimation des interactions biologiques entre types de VPH dans les études épidémiologiques est systématiquement biaisée par la corrélation entre le temps à risque d’infection avec un type de VPH et le temps à risque d’infection avec d’autres types de VPH. L’ajustement pour des marqueurs d’activité sexuelle ne réussit pas à contrôler ce biais. Une mesure valide des interactions biologiques entre types de VPH peut être obtenue uniquement avec des études épidémiologiques prospectives qui restreignent les analyses à des individus susceptibles ayant des partenaires sexuels infectés. Conclusion : L’hétérogénéité comportementale entre individus et l’hétérogénéité biologique entre VPH affecteront l’efficacité populationnelle du vaccin contre les VPH. Dans les contextes où les déterminants sociaux des comportements sexuels et la participation au dépistage sont aussi associés à la couverture vaccinale chez les préadolescentes, l’inégalité relative dans l’incidence des SCC risque d’augmenter. Ces comportements demeureront des facteurs de risque importants du cancer du col à l’avenir. L’effet à long terme du vaccin sur les types de VPH non-vaccinaux demeure incertain. Quoique nos résultats suggèrent que les vaccins offrent une efficacité croisée contre certains types de VPH, celle-ci pourrait diminuer après quelques années. Des interactions compétitives entre VPH pourraient exister malgré les associations observées entre les incidences des infections VPH, donc une augmentation post-vaccination de la prévalence des VPH non-vaccinaux demeure possible. Des devis d’analyse plus complexes sont nécessaires pour mesurer de façon valide les interactions biologiques entre les VPH dans les études épidémiologiques.

Fatores associados e preditores de quedas em idosos domiciliados de acordo com a Classificação Internacional da Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde

Objetivo geral da pesquisa foi identificar os fatores associados e preditivos de quedas em idosos domiciliados em uma cidade do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, considerando as características sociodemográficas e epidemiológicas e utilizando-se de fatores ambientais da Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde (CIF). Objetivos específicos: identificar as características sociodemográficas e epidemiológicas de idosos domiciliados em uma cidade do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil; descrever os fatores sociodemográficos e epidemiológicos que influenciam nas quedas em idosos domiciliados; Relacionar os fatores ambientais da Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde em idosos domiciliados com riscos de quedas. Pesquisa epidemiológica transversal, ocorrida de junho a julho de 2013, com 167 idosos das áreas de abrangência de uma unidade básica de saúde. Critérios de inclusão na pesquisa: ambos os sexos, cadastrados e com residência fixa nas áreas de abrangência de uma unidade básica de saúde. Critérios de exclusão: idosos com alterações cognitivas. Utilizou-se entrevista estruturada com três etapas: levantamento das características dos idosos investigados; questões relacionadas às quedas; informações sobre os fatores ambientais da Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde. Os dados foram agrupados para tratamento estatístico/descritivo. A média das idades 71 anos, com desvio padrão de 7,1. A maioria dos idosos era do sexo feminino, casados, com escolaridade de quatro e oito anos, residindo com filhos e companheiro, aposentados e com renda de um salário mínimo. As doenças mais prevalentes foram circulatórias, osteomusculares, e endócrinas e os idosos apresentaram pelo menos uma comorbidade. Dos 167 idosos, 65 caíram nos últimos doze meses, no ambiente domiciliar, com prevalência em: banheiro, cozinha e na rua, sendo as calçadas as mais destacadas. A maior proporção de permanência no chão foi de dez minutos, e a maioria dos idosos, após as quedas, não procuraram os serviços de saúde. Como tratamento para as quedas, obteve-se o não cirúrgico. Quanto à Classificação Internacional da Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde, houve destaque para o uso de medicações como fator influente nas quedas dos idosos domiciliados. Percebe-se a importância de avaliação constante por parte dos profissionais de saúde sobre os idosos caidores e não-caidores, no sentido de identificar os fatores de riscos intrínsecos e extrínsecos para implementar estratégias de prevenção que compreendam reabilitação da força muscular, equilíbrio e capacidade funcional, redução da polifarmácia, educação para o autocuidado e um olhar do enfermeiro voltado para os períodos e locais de maior incidência de quedas, melhorando desta forma a qualidade de vida dos idosos residentes em diferentes contextos. A pesquisa traz como contribuição social um re-olhar acerca do redimensionamento do cuidado à pessoa idosa que teve queda no próprio ambiente, a partir da Classificação Internacional de Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde.

Identifying health inequalities in individuals with major mental illness (MMI) using routine data

Abstract and Summary of Thesis: Background: Individuals with Major Mental Illness (such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) experience increased rates of physical health comorbidity compared to the general population. They also experience inequalities in access to certain aspects of healthcare. This ultimately leads to premature mortality. Studies detailing patterns of physical health comorbidity are limited by their definitions of comorbidity, single disease approach to comorbidity and by the study of heterogeneous groups. To date the investigation of possible sources of healthcare inequalities experienced by individuals with Major Mental Illness (MMI) is relatively limited. Moreover studies detailing the extent of premature mortality experienced by individuals with MMI vary both in terms of the measure of premature mortality reported and age of the cohort investigated, limiting their generalisability to the wider population. Therefore local and national data can be used to describe patterns of physical health comorbidity, investigate possible reasons for health inequalities and describe mortality rates. These findings will extend existing work in this area. Aims and Objectives: To review the relevant literature regarding: patterns of physical health comorbidity, evidence for inequalities in physical healthcare and evidence for premature mortality for individuals with MMI. To examine the rates of physical health comorbidity in a large primary care database and to assess for evidence for inequalities in access to healthcare using both routine primary care prescribing data and incentivised national Quality and Outcome Framework (QOF) data. Finally to examine the rates of premature mortality in a local context with a particular focus on cause of death across the lifespan and effect of International Classification of Disease Version 10 (ICD 10) diagnosis and socioeconomic status on rates and cause of death. Methods: A narrative review of the literature surrounding patterns of physical health comorbidity, the evidence for inequalities in physical healthcare and premature mortality in MMI was undertaken. Rates of physical health comorbidity and multimorbidity in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were examined using a large primary care dataset (Scottish Programme for Improving Clinical Effectiveness in Primary Care (SPICE)). Possible inequalities in access to healthcare were investigated by comparing patterns of prescribing in individuals with MMI and comorbid physical health conditions with prescribing rates in individuals with physical health conditions without MMI using SPICE data. Potential inequalities in access to health promotion advice (in the form of smoking cessation) and prescribing of Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) were also investigated using SPICE data. Possible inequalities in access to incentivised primary healthcare were investigated using National Quality and Outcome Framework (QOF) data. Finally a pre-existing case register (Glasgow Psychosis Clinical Information System (PsyCIS)) was linked to Scottish Mortality data (available from the Scottish Government Website) to investigate rates and primary cause of death in individuals with MMI. Rate and primary cause of death were compared to the local population and impact of age, socioeconomic status and ICD 10 diagnosis (schizophrenia vs. bipolar disorder) were investigated. Results: Analysis of the SPICE data found that sixteen out of the thirty two common physical comorbidities assessed, occurred significantly more frequently in individuals with schizophrenia. In individuals with bipolar disorder fourteen occurred more frequently. The most prevalent chronic physical health conditions in individuals with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were: viral hepatitis (Odds Ratios (OR) 3.99 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.82-5.64 and OR 5.90 95% CI 3.16-11.03 respectively), constipation (OR 3.24 95% CI 3.01-3.49 and OR 2.84 95% CI 2.47-3.26 respectively) and Parkinson’s disease (OR 3.07 95% CI 2.43-3.89 and OR 2.52 95% CI 1.60-3.97 respectively). Both groups had significantly increased rates of multimorbidity compared to controls: in the schizophrenia group OR for two comorbidities was 1.37 95% CI 1.29-1.45 and in the bipolar disorder group OR was 1.34 95% CI 1.20-1.49. In the studies investigating inequalities in access to healthcare there was evidence of: under-recording of cardiovascular-related conditions for example in individuals with schizophrenia: OR for Atrial Fibrillation (AF) was 0.62 95% CI 0.52 - 0.73, for hypertension 0.71 95% CI 0.67 - 0.76, for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) 0.76 95% CI 0.69 - 0.83 and for peripheral vascular disease (PVD) 0.83 95% CI 0.72 - 0.97. Similarly in individuals with bipolar disorder OR for AF was 0.56 95% CI 0.41-0.78, for hypertension 0.69 95% CI 0.62 - 0.77 and for CHD 0.77 95% CI 0.66 - 0.91. There was also evidence of less intensive prescribing for individuals with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder who had comorbid hypertension and CHD compared to individuals with hypertension and CHD who did not have schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. Rate of prescribing of statins for individuals with schizophrenia and CHD occurred significantly less frequently than in individuals with CHD without MMI (OR 0.67 95% CI 0.56-0.80). Rates of prescribing of 2 or more anti-hypertensives were lower in individuals with CHD and schizophrenia and CHD and bipolar disorder compared to individuals with CHD without MMI (OR 0.66 95% CI 0.56-0.78 and OR 0.55 95% CI 0.46-0.67, respectively). Smoking was more common in individuals with MMI compared to individuals without MMI (OR 2.53 95% CI 2.44-2.63) and was particularly increased in men (OR 2.83 95% CI 2.68-2.98). Rates of ex-smoking and non-smoking were lower in individuals with MMI (OR 0.79 95% CI 0.75-0.83 and OR 0.50 95% CI 0.48-0.52 respectively). However recorded rates of smoking cessation advice in smokers with MMI were significantly lower than the recorded rates of smoking cessation advice in smokers with diabetes (88.7% vs. 98.0%, p<0.001), smokers with CHD (88.9% vs. 98.7%, p<0.001) and smokers with hypertension (88.3% vs. 98.5%, p<0.001) without MMI. The odds ratio of NRT prescription was also significantly lower in smokers with MMI without diabetes compared to smokers with diabetes without MMI (OR 0.75 95% CI 0.69-0.81). Similar findings were found for smokers with MMI without CHD compared to smokers with CHD without MMI (OR 0.34 95% CI 0.31-0.38) and smokers with MMI without hypertension compared to smokers with hypertension without MMI (OR 0.71 95% CI 0.66-0.76). At a national level, payment and population achievement rates for the recording of body mass index (BMI) in MMI was significantly lower than the payment and population achievement rates for BMI recording in diabetes throughout the whole of the UK combined: payment rate 92.7% (Inter Quartile Range (IQR) 89.3-95.8 vs. 95.5% IQR 93.3-97.2, p<0.001 and population achievement rate 84.0% IQR 76.3-90.0 vs. 92.5% IQR 89.7-94.9, p<0.001 and for each country individually: for example in Scotland payment rate was 94.0% IQR 91.4-97.2 vs. 96.3% IQR 94.3-97.8, p<0.001. Exception rate was significantly higher for the recording of BMI in MMI than the exception rate for BMI recording in diabetes for the UK combined: 7.4% IQR 3.3-15.9 vs. 2.3% IQR 0.9-4.7, p<0.001 and for each country individually. For example in Scotland exception rate in MMI was 11.8% IQR 5.4-19.3 compared to 3.5% IQR 1.9-6.1 in diabetes. Similar findings were found for Blood Pressure (BP) recording: across the whole of the UK payment and population achievement rates for BP recording in MMI were also significantly reduced compared to payment and population achievement rates for the recording of BP in chronic kidney disease (CKD): payment rate: 94.1% IQR 90.9-97.1 vs.97.8% IQR 96.3-98.9 and p<0.001 and population achievement rate 87.0% IQR 81.3-91.7 vs. 97.1% IQR 95.5-98.4, p<0.001. Exception rates again were significantly higher for the recording of BP in MMI compared to CKD (6.4% IQR 3.0-13.1 vs. 0.3% IQR 0.0-1.0, p<0.001). There was also evidence of differences in rates of recording of BMI and BP in MMI across the UK. BMI and BP recording in MMI were significantly lower in Scotland compared to England (BMI:-1.5% 99% CI -2.7 to -0.3%, p<0.001 and BP: -1.8% 99% CI -2.7 to -0.9%, p<0.001). While rates of BMI and BP recording in diabetes and CKD were similar in Scotland compared to England (BMI: -0.5 99% CI -1.0 to 0.05, p=0.004 and BP: 0.02 99% CI -0.2 to 0.3, p=0.797). Data from the PsyCIS cohort showed an increase in Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMR) across the lifespan for individuals with MMI compared to the local Glasgow and wider Scottish populations (Glasgow SMR 1.8 95% CI 1.6-2.0 and Scotland SMR 2.7 95% CI 2.4-3.1). Increasing socioeconomic deprivation was associated with an increased overall rate of death in MMI (350.3 deaths/10,000 population/5 years in the least deprived quintile compared to 794.6 deaths/10,000 population/5 years in the most deprived quintile). No significant difference in rate of death for individuals with schizophrenia compared with bipolar disorder was reported (6.3% vs. 4.9%, p=0.086), but primary cause of death varied: with higher rates of suicide in individuals with bipolar disorder (22.4% vs. 11.7%, p=0.04). Discussion: Local and national datasets can be used for epidemiological study to inform local practice and complement existing national and international studies. While the strengths of this thesis include the large data sets used and therefore their likely representativeness to the wider population, some limitations largely associated with using secondary data sources are acknowledged. While this thesis has confirmed evidence of increased physical health comorbidity and multimorbidity in individuals with MMI, it is likely that these findings represent a significant under reporting and likely under recognition of physical health comorbidity in this population. This is likely due to a combination of patient, health professional and healthcare system factors and requires further investigation. Moreover, evidence of inequality in access to healthcare in terms of: physical health promotion (namely smoking cessation advice), recording of physical health indices (BMI and BP), prescribing of medications for the treatment of physical illness and prescribing of NRT has been found at a national level. While significant premature mortality in individuals with MMI within a Scottish setting has been confirmed, more work is required to further detail and investigate the impact of socioeconomic deprivation on cause and rate of death in this population. It is clear that further education and training is required for all healthcare staff to improve the recognition, diagnosis and treatment of physical health problems in this population with the aim of addressing the significant premature mortality that is seen. Conclusions: Future work lies in the challenge of designing strategies to reduce health inequalities and narrow the gap in premature mortality reported in individuals with MMI. Models of care that allow a much more integrated approach to diagnosing, monitoring and treating both the physical and mental health of individuals with MMI, particularly in areas of social and economic deprivation may be helpful. Strategies to engage this “hard to reach” population also need to be developed. While greater integration of psychiatric services with primary care and with specialist medical services is clearly vital the evidence on how best to achieve this is limited. While the National Health Service (NHS) is currently undergoing major reform, attention needs to be paid to designing better ways to improve the current disconnect between primary and secondary care. This should then help to improve physical, psychological and social outcomes for individuals with MMI.

Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health

The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.