Application of Bayesian approach in geotechnical engineering

En esta Tesis Doctoral se emplean y desarrollan Métodos Bayesianos para su aplicación en análisis geotécnicos habituales, con un énfasis particular en (i) la valoración y selección de modelos geotécnicos basados en correlaciones empíricas; en (ii) el desarrollo de predicciones acerca de los resultados esperados en modelos geotécnicos complejos. Se llevan a cabo diferentes aplicaciones a problemas geotécnicos, como es el caso de: (1) En el caso de rocas intactas, se presenta un método Bayesiano para la evaluación de modelos que permiten estimar el módulo de Young a partir de la resistencia a compresión simple (UCS). La metodología desarrollada suministra estimaciones de las incertidumbres de los parámetros y predicciones y es capaz de diferenciar entre las diferentes fuentes de error. Se desarrollan modelos "específicos de roca" para los tipos de roca más comunes y se muestra cómo se pueden "actualizar" esos modelos "iniciales" para incorporar, cuando se encuentra disponible, la nueva información específica del proyecto, reduciendo las incertidumbres del modelo y mejorando sus capacidades predictivas. (2) Para macizos rocosos, se presenta una metodología, fundamentada en un criterio de selección de modelos, que permite determinar el modelo más apropiado, entre un conjunto de candidatos, para estimar el módulo de deformación de un macizo rocoso a partir de un conjunto de datos observados. Una vez que se ha seleccionado el modelo más apropiado, se emplea un método Bayesiano para obtener distribuciones predictivas de los módulos de deformación de macizos rocosos y para actualizarlos con la nueva información específica del proyecto. Este método Bayesiano de actualización puede reducir significativamente la incertidumbre asociada a la predicción, y por lo tanto, afectar las estimaciones que se hagan de la probabilidad de fallo, lo cual es de un interés significativo para los diseños de mecánica de rocas basados en fiabilidad. (3) En las primeras etapas de los diseños de mecánica de rocas, la información acerca de los parámetros geomecánicos y geométricos, las tensiones in-situ o los parámetros de sostenimiento, es, a menudo, escasa o incompleta. Esto plantea dificultades para aplicar las correlaciones empíricas tradicionales que no pueden trabajar con información incompleta para realizar predicciones. Por lo tanto, se propone la utilización de una Red Bayesiana para trabajar con información incompleta y, en particular, se desarrolla un clasificador Naïve Bayes para predecir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de grandes deformaciones (squeezing) en un túnel a partir de cinco parámetros de entrada habitualmente disponibles, al menos parcialmente, en la etapa de diseño. This dissertation employs and develops Bayesian methods to be used in typical geotechnical analyses, with a particular emphasis on (i) the assessment and selection of geotechnical models based on empirical correlations; on (ii) the development of probabilistic predictions of outcomes expected for complex geotechnical models. Examples of application to geotechnical problems are developed, as follows: (1) For intact rocks, we present a Bayesian framework for model assessment to estimate the Young’s moduli based on their UCS. Our approach provides uncertainty estimates of parameters and predictions, and can differentiate among the sources of error. We develop ‘rock-specific’ models for common rock types, and illustrate that such ‘initial’ models can be ‘updated’ to incorporate new project-specific information as it becomes available, reducing model uncertainties and improving their predictive capabilities. (2) For rock masses, we present an approach, based on model selection criteria to select the most appropriate model, among a set of candidate models, to estimate the deformation modulus of a rock mass, given a set of observed data. Once the most appropriate model is selected, a Bayesian framework is employed to develop predictive distributions of the deformation moduli of rock masses, and to update them with new project-specific data. Such Bayesian updating approach can significantly reduce the associated predictive uncertainty, and therefore, affect our computed estimates of probability of failure, which is of significant interest to reliability-based rock engineering design. (3) In the preliminary design stage of rock engineering, the information about geomechanical and geometrical parameters, in situ stress or support parameters is often scarce or incomplete. This poses difficulties in applying traditional empirical correlations that cannot deal with incomplete data to make predictions. Therefore, we propose the use of Bayesian Networks to deal with incomplete data and, in particular, a Naïve Bayes classifier is developed to predict the probability of occurrence of tunnel squeezing based on five input parameters that are commonly available, at least partially, at design stages.

System definition report for the National Driver Register Design Study. Interim report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety Programs, Washington, D.C.

Design improvements in the COLFTAR cooled crystal light-value [i.e. valve] /

"UIUCDCS-R-74-669"

The analysis and compensation of nonlinear sampled-data feedback systems.

"Research was supported by the United States Air Force through the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Air Research and Development Command."

Information processing relevant to military command: survey, recommendations and bibliography (final report)

Vol. 2: Bibliography appendix.

Design manual. Chemical engineering process design symbols.

Mode of access: Internet.

In situ studies on service life and pick consumption characteristics of shearer drums

Longwall shearers usually suffer from excessive pick and pickholder consumptions and severe wear of the backplate of the clearance ring section of shearer drums. In practice, most of the drums were seen to be withdrawn from the face due to the abovementioned problems, while vane picks and their holders were intact due to the improper lacing design of the clearance ring picks. However, few underground investigations and their results on the effect of lacing arrangement of clearance picks on the service life of shearer drums have been published. Nevertheless, the pick consumption characteristics of shearer drums were not investigated in detail, since these are fewer pick consumptions with shearers when compared to roadheaders. This paper is concerned with the comprehensive in situ trials on the effect of lacing of clearance ring picks on the lifespan of shearer drums, and the pick consumption characteristics of longwall shearers at Cayirhan Coal Mine in Turkey. The lifespan of shearer drums employed with shearers in this mine increased 70 per cent, while the consumption rate of clearance ring picks decreased three fold through using an alternative lacing for clearance picks, indicating the significance of utilizing proper design techniques for clearance ring picks for the service life of shearer drums. Statistical analyses carried out, using the raw pick consumption data, implied that the clearance ring picks experienced much higher loads than vane picks, revealing that special attention must be paid to designing clearance ring picks. An average maximum consumption value of 41 was determined for clearance ring picks, with corner-cutting picks having the most replacements, while it was 35 for vane picks, on three-day based pick replacements.

Design of high quality doped CeO2 solid electrolytes with nanohetero structure

Doped ceria (CeO2) compounds are fluorite related oxides which show oxide ionic conductivity higher than yttria-stabilized zirconia in oxidizing atmosphere. As a consequence of this, a considerable interest has been shown in application of these materials for low (400-650 degrees C) temperature operation of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). In this paper, our experimental data about the influence of microstructure at the atomic level on electrochemical properties were reviewed in order to develop high quality doped CeO2 electrolytes in fuel cell applications. Using this data in the present paper, our original idea for a design of nanodomain structure in doped CeO2 electrolytes was suggested. The nanosized powders and dense sintered bodies of M doped CeO2 (M:Sm,Gd,La,Y,Yb, and Dy) compounds were fabricated. Also nanostiructural features in these specimens were introduced for conclusion of relationship between electrolytic properties and domain structure in doped CeO2. It is essential that the electrolytic properties in doped CeO2 solid electrolytes reflect in changes of microstructure even down to the atomic scale. Accordingly, a combined approach of nanostructure fabrication, electrical measurement and structure characterization was required to develop superior quality doped CeO2 electrolytes in the fuel cells.

Nonlinear loop mirror-based all-optical signal processing in fiber-optic communications

All-optical data processing is expected to play a major role in future optical communications. The fiber nonlinear optical loop mirror (NOLM) is a valuable tool in optical signal processing applications. This paper presents an overview of our recent advances in developing NOLM-based all-optical processing techniques for application in fiber-optic communications. The use of in-line NOLMs as a general technique for all-optical passive 2R (reamplification, reshaping) regeneration of return-to-zero (RZ) on-off keyed signals in both high-speed, ultralong-distance transmission systems and terrestrial photonic networks is reviewed. In this context, a theoretical model enabling the description of the stable propagation of carrier pulses with periodic all-optical self-regeneration in fiber systems with in-line deployment of nonlinear optical devices is presented. A novel, simple pulse processing scheme using nonlinear broadening in normal dispersion fiber and loop mirror intensity filtering is described, and its employment is demonstrated as an optical decision element at a RZ receiver as well as an in-line device to realize a transmission technique of periodic all-optical RZ-nonreturn-to-zero-like format conversion. The important issue of phase-preserving regeneration of phase-encoded signals is also addressed by presenting a new design of NOLM based on distributed Raman amplification in the loop fiber. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A systematic approach to establish fundamental principles of computer applications packages design

This work attempts to create a systemic design framework for man-machine interfaces which is self consistent, compatible with other concepts, and applicable to real situations. This is tackled by examining the current architecture of computer applications packages. The treatment in the main is philosophical and theoretical and analyses the origins, assumptions and current practice of the design of applications packages. It proposes that the present form of packages is fundamentally contradictory to the notion of packaging itself. This is because as an indivisible ready-to-implement solution, current package architecture displays the following major disadvantages. First, it creates problems as a result of user-package interactions, in which the designer tries to mould all potential individual users, no matter how diverse they are, into one model. This is worsened by the minute provision, if any, of important properties such as flexibility, independence and impartiality. Second, it displays rigid structure that reduces the variety and/or multi-use of the component parts of such a package. Third, it dictates specific hardware and software configurations which probably results in reducing the number of degrees of freedom of its user. Fourth, it increases the dependence of its user upon its supplier through inadequate documentation and understanding of the package. Fifth, it tends to cause a degeneration of the expertise of design of the data processing practitioners. In view of this understanding an alternative methodological design framework which is both consistent with systems approach and the role of a package in its likely context is proposed. The proposition is based upon an extension of the identified concept of the hierarchy of holons* which facilitates the examination of the complex relationships of a package with its two principal environments. First, the user characteristics and his decision making practice and procedures; implying an examination of the user's M.I.S. network. Second, the software environment and its influence upon a package regarding support, control and operation of the package. The framework is built gradually as discussion advances around the central theme of a compatible M.I.S., software and model design. This leads to the formation of the alternative package architecture that is based upon the design of a number of independent, self-contained small parts. Such is believed to constitute the nucleus around which not only packages can be more effectively designed, but is also applicable to many man-machine systems design.

User interface design support for the development of knowledge-based systems

The present scarcity of operational knowledge-based systems (KBS) has been attributed, in part, to an inadequate consideration shown to user interface design during development. From a human factors perspective the problem has stemmed from an overall lack of user-centred design principles. Consequently the integration of human factors principles and techniques is seen as a necessary and important precursor to ensuring the implementation of KBS which are useful to, and usable by, the end-users for whom they are intended. Focussing upon KBS work taking place within commercial and industrial environments, this research set out to assess both the extent to which human factors support was presently being utilised within development, and the future path for human factors integration. The assessment consisted of interviews conducted with a number of commercial and industrial organisations involved in KBS development; and a set of three detailed case studies of individual KBS projects. Two of the studies were carried out within a collaborative Alvey project, involving the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme (IHD) at the University of Aston in Birmingham, BIS Applied Systems Ltd (BIS), and the British Steel Corporation. This project, which had provided the initial basis and funding for the research, was concerned with the application of KBS to the design of commercial data processing (DP) systems. The third study stemmed from involvement on a KBS project being carried out by the Technology Division of the Trustees Saving Bank Group plc. The preliminary research highlighted poor human factors integration. In particular, there was a lack of early consideration of end-user requirements definition and user-centred evaluation. Instead concentration was given to the construction of the knowledge base and prototype evaluation with the expert(s). In response to this identified problem, a set of methods was developed that was aimed at encouraging developers to consider user interface requirements early on in a project. These methods were then applied in the two further projects, and their uptake within the overall development process was monitored. Experience from the two studies demonstrated that early consideration of user interface requirements was both feasible, and instructive for guiding future development work. In particular, it was shown a user interface prototype could be used as a basis for capturing requirements at the functional (task) level, and at the interface dialogue level. Extrapolating from this experience, a KBS life-cycle model is proposed which incorporates user interface design (and within that, user evaluation) as a largely parallel, rather than subsequent, activity to knowledge base construction. Further to this, there is a discussion of several key elements which can be seen as inhibiting the integration of human factors within KBS development. These elements stem from characteristics of present KBS development practice; from constraints within the commercial and industrial development environments; and from the state of existing human factors support.