Uniform approach to linear and nonlinear interrelation patterns in multivariate time series

Currently, a variety of linear and nonlinear measures is in use to investigate spatiotemporal interrelation patterns of multivariate time series. Whereas the former are by definition insensitive to nonlinear effects, the latter detect both nonlinear and linear interrelation. In the present contribution we employ a uniform surrogate-based approach, which is capable of disentangling interrelations that significantly exceed random effects and interrelations that significantly exceed linear correlation. The bivariate version of the proposed framework is explored using a simple model allowing for separate tuning of coupling and nonlinearity of interrelation. To demonstrate applicability of the approach to multivariate real-world time series we investigate resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) data of two healthy subjects as well as intracranial electroencephalograms (iEEG) of two epilepsy patients with focal onset seizures. The main findings are that for our rsfMRI data interrelations can be described by linear cross-correlation. Rejection of the null hypothesis of linear iEEG interrelation occurs predominantly for epileptogenic tissue as well as during epileptic seizures.

[Approach to prostate cancer in men older than 75 years: active or passive?]

Based on the exponential aging of the population and the increasing life expectancy in industrialized western countries, prostate cancer (PCa) in elderly men is becoming a disease of increasing significance. Consensus exists that men over the age of 75 years should not be screened for PCa; however, higher age as a single parameter should not exclude men from being diagnosed with prostate cancer and treated accordingly. It is well-known that overdiagnosis and overtreatment are frequent in this age group. Competing mortality risks of men older than 75 years may supersede the risk of dying from PCa several fold. Both the treating physician and the patient himself should therefore balance the possible risks and benefits of diagnosing and treating prostate cancer concerning the impact on quality of life. This is of special importance when taking into account that the complication rates of curative treatment modalities are higher in older patients than in younger men and that hormonal treatment might have negative effects especially in older men.Age, existing comorbidities, cognitive and physical status in combination with specific tumor parameters are useful tools for an individualized treatment.Therapy should be considered for healthy, active men aged 75 years or older who present with high-risk PCa and/or with a PSA doubling time <12 months. Elderly men who are unfit or have low to intermediate risk PCa will most likely not benefit from treatment.

A unified approach to modeling multivariate binary data using copulas over partitions

Many seemingly disparate approaches for marginal modeling have been developed in recent years. We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the proposed copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts.

Performance Availability and Anticipatory Change Planning of Intralogistics Systems: A Simulation-Based Approach

In recent years, the ability to respond to real time changes in operations and reconfigurability in equipment are likely to become essential characteristics for next generation intralogistics systems as well as the level of automation, cost effectiveness and maximum throughput. In order to cope with turbulences and the increasing level of dynamic conditions, future intralogistics systems have to feature short reaction times, high flexibility in processes and the ability to adapt to frequent changes. The increasing autonomy and complexity in processes of today’s intralogistics systems requires new and innovative management approaches, which allow a fast response to (un)anticipated events and adaptation to changing environment in order to reduce the negative consequences of these events. The ability of a system to respond effectively a disruption depends more on the decisions taken before the event than those taken during or after. In this context, anticipatory change planning can be a usable approach for managers to make contingency plans for intralogistics systems to deal with the rapidly changing marketplace. This paper proposes a simulation-based decision making framework for the anticipatory change planning of intralogistics systems. This approach includes the quantitative assessments based on the simulation in defined scenarios as well as the analysis of performance availability that combines the flexibility corridors of different performance dimensions. The implementation of the approach is illustrated on a new intralogistics technology called the Cellular Transport System.

Re-thinking resuscitation: leaving blood pressure cosmetics behind and moving forward to permissive hypotension and a tissue perfusion-based approach

Definitions of shock and resuscitation endpoints traditionally focus on blood pressures and cardiac output. This carries a high risk of overemphasizing systemic hemodynamics at the cost of tissue perfusion. In line with novel shock definitions and evidence of the lack of a correlation between macro- and microcirculation in shock, we recommend that macrocirculatory resuscitation endpoints, particularly arterial and central venous pressure as well as cardiac output, be reconsidered. In this viewpoint article, we propose a three-step approach of resuscitation endpoints in shock of all origins. This approach targets only a minimum individual and context-sensitive mean arterial blood pressure (for example, 45 to 50 mm Hg) to preserve heart and brain perfusion. Further resuscitation is exclusively guided by endpoints of tissue perfusion irrespectively of the presence of arterial hypotension ('permissive hypotension'). Finally, optimization of individual tissue (for example, renal) perfusion is targeted. Prospective clinical studies are necessary to confirm the postulated benefits of targeting these resuscitation endpoints.

Zonal playfield attributes – A stochastic approach to subjective passing affordances in football

Introduction: According to the ecological view, coordination establishes byvirtueof social context. Affordances thought of as situational opportunities to interact are assumed to represent the guiding principles underlying decisions involved in interpersonal coordination. It’s generally agreed that affordances are not an objective part of the (social) environment but that they depend on the constructive perception of involved subjects. Theory and empirical data hold that cognitive operations enabling domain-specific efficacy beliefs are involved in the perception of affordances. The aim of the present study was to test the effects of these cognitive concepts in the subjective construction of local affordances and their influence on decision making in football. Methods: 71 football players (M = 24.3 years, SD = 3.3, 21 % women) from different divisions participated in the study. Participants were presented scenarios of offensive game situations. They were asked to take the perspective of the person on the ball and to indicate where they would pass the ball from within each situation. The participants stated their decisions in two conditions with different game score (1:0 vs. 0:1). The playing fields of all scenarios were then divided into ten zones. For each zone, participants were asked to rate their confidence in being able to pass the ball there (self-efficacy), the likelihood of the group staying in ball possession if the ball were passed into the zone (group-efficacy I), the likelihood of the ball being covered safely by a team member (pass control / group-efficacy II), and whether a pass would establish a better initial position to attack the opponents’ goal (offensive convenience). Answers were reported on visual analog scales ranging from 1 to 10. Data were analyzed specifying general linear models for binomially distributed data (Mplus). Maximum likelihood with non-normality robust standard errors was chosen to estimate parameters. Results: Analyses showed that zone- and domain-specific efficacy beliefs significantly affected passing decisions. Because of collinearity with self-efficacy and group-efficacy I, group-efficacy II was excluded from the models to ease interpretation of the results. Generally, zones with high values in the subjective ratings had a higher probability to be chosen as passing destination (βself-efficacy = 0.133, p < .001, OR = 1.142; βgroup-efficacy I = 0.128, p < .001, OR = 1.137; βoffensive convenience = 0.057, p < .01, OR = 1.059). There were, however, characteristic differences in the two score conditions. While group-efficacy I was the only significant predictor in condition 1 (βgroup-efficacy I = 0.379, p < .001), only self-efficacy and offensive convenience contributed to passing decisions in condition 2 (βself-efficacy = 0.135, p < .01; βoffensive convenience = 0.120, p < .001). Discussion: The results indicate that subjectively distinct attributes projected to playfield zones affect passing decisions. The study proposes a probabilistic alternative to Lewin’s (1951) hodological and deterministic field theory and enables insight into how dimensions of the psychological landscape afford passing behavior. Being part of a team, this psychological landscape is not only constituted by probabilities that refer to the potential and consequences of individual behavior, but also to that of the group system of which individuals are part of. Hence, in regulating action decisions in group settings, informers are extended to aspects referring to the group-level. References: Lewin, K. (1951). In D. Cartwright (Ed.), Field theory in social sciences: Selected theoretical papers by Kurt Lewin. New York: Harper & Brothers.

Theoretical Models Based on a Flowchart Approach to Industrial Cluster Policy

This article examined the issue of whether or not the currency exchange rate, country risk, and cooperate tax rate affect decisions of multinational firms to invest in industrial clusters. First, if the exchange rate between a multinational company in an industry of diminishing returns to scale and a developing country is appreciated, then production in the developing country should increase. Second, if the investment period becomes longer, the currency exchange rate of a multinational company's country should be revalued more in order for it to further invest in the developing country. Third, if the investment period becomes longer, the developing country's risk should become less. Fourth, compensation for the developing country's high risk can be made by lowering its corporate tax rate.

Non-linear gain - look-up table based approach for modeling a family of DC to DC converters based on transient response analysis

The purpose of this work is to propose a structure for simulating power systems using behavioral models of nonlinear DC to DC converters implemented through a look-up table of gains. This structure is specially designed for converters whose output impedance depends on the load current level, e.g. quasi-resonant converters. The proposed model is a generic one whose parameters can be obtained by direct measuring the transient response at different operating points. It also includes optional functionalities for modeling converters with current limitation and current sharing in paralleling characteristics. The pusposed structured also allows including aditional characteristics of the DC to DC converter as the efficency as a function of the input voltage and the output current or overvoltage and undervoltage protections. In addition, this proposed model is valid for overdamped and underdamped situations.

A regular perturbation approach to surface tension driven flows

Surface tension induced convection in a liquid bridge held between two parallel, coaxial, solid disks is considered. The surface tension gradient is produced by a small temperature gradient parallel Co the undisturbed surface. The study is performed by using a mathematical regular perturbation approach based on a small parameter, e, which measures the deviation of the imposed temperature field from its mean value. The first order velocity field is given by a Stokes-type problem (viscous terms are dominant) with relatively simple boundary conditions. The first order temperature field is that imposed from the end disks on a liquid bridge immersed in a non-conductive fluid. Radiative effects are supposed to be negligible. The second order temperature field, which accounts for convective effects, is split into three components, one due to the bulk motion, and the other two to the distortion of the free surface. The relative importance of these components in terms of the heat transfer to or from the end disks is assessed

Markov blanket-based approach for learning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers: An application to predict the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39)

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs) are probabilistic graphical models recently proposed to deal with multi-dimensional classification problems, where each instance in the data set has to be assigned to more than one class variable. In this paper, we propose a Markov blanket-based approach for learning MBCs from data. Basically, it consists of determining the Markov blanket around each class variable using the HITON algorithm, then specifying the directionality over the MBC subgraphs. Our approach is applied to the prediction problem of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) from the 39-item Parkinson’s Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39) in order to estimate the health-related quality of life of Parkinson’s patients. Fivefold cross-validation experiments were carried out on randomly generated synthetic data sets, Yeast data set, as well as on a real-world Parkinson’s disease data set containing 488 patients. The experimental study, including comparison with additional Bayesian network-based approaches, back propagation for multi-label learning, multi-label k-nearest neighbor, multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations, shows encouraging results in terms of predictive accuracy as well as the identification of dependence relationships among class and feature variables.

An approach to automatic learning assessment based on the computational theory of perceptions

E-learning systems output a huge quantity of data on a learning process. However, it takes a lot of specialist human resources to manually process these data and generate an assessment report. Additionally, for formative assessment, the report should state the attainment level of the learning goals defined by the instructor. This paper describes the use of the granular linguistic model of a phenomenon (GLMP) to model the assessment of the learning process and implement the automated generation of an assessment report. GLMP is based on fuzzy logic and the computational theory of perceptions. This technique is useful for implementing complex assessment criteria using inference systems based on linguistic rules. Apart from the grade, the model also generates a detailed natural language progress report on the achieved proficiency level, based exclusively on the objective data gathered from correct and incorrect responses. This is illustrated by applying the model to the assessment of Dijkstra’s algorithm learning using a visual simulation-based graph algorithm learning environment, called GRAPHs

Activity based costing, time-driven activity based costing and lean accounting: differences among three accounting systems' approach to manufacturing

Choosing an appropriate accounting system for manufacturing has always been a challenge for managers. In this article we try to compare three accounting systems designed since 1980 to address problems of traditional accounting system. In the first place we are going to present a short overview on background and definition of three accounting systems: Activity Based costing, Time-Driven Activity Based Costing and Lean Accounting. Comparisons are made based on the three basic roles of information generated by accounting systems: financial reporting, decision making, and operational control and improvement. The analysis in this paper reveals how decisions are made over the value stream in the companies using Lean Accounting while decisions under the ABC Accounting system are taken at individual product level, and finally we will show how TD-ABC covers both product and process levels for decision making. In addition, this paper shows the importance of nonfinancial measures for operational control and improvement under the Lean Accounting and TD-ABC methods whereas ABC relies mostly on financial measures in this context.