How does social security affect economic growth? Evidence from cross-country data

This paper investigates how social security interacts with growth and growth determinants (savings, human capital investment, and fertility). Our empirical investigation finds that the estimated coefficient on social security is significantly negative in the fertility equation, insignificant in the saving equation, and significantly positive in the growth and education equations. By contrast, the estimated coefficient on growth is insignificant in the social security equation. The results suggest that social security may indeed be conducive to growth through tipping the trade-off between the number and quality of children toward the latter.

Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries

This paper reinvestigates the energy consumption-GDP growth nexus in a panel error correction model using data on 20 net energy importers and exporters from 1971 to 2002. Among the energy exporters, there was bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption in the developed countries in both the short and long run, while in the developing countries energy consumption stimulates growth only in the short run. The former result is also found for energy importers and the latter result exists only for the developed countries within this category. In addition, compared to the developing countries, the developed countries' elasticity response in terms of economic growth from an increase in energy consumption is larger although its income elasticity is lower and less than unitary. Lastly. the implications for energy policy calling for a more holistic approach are discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

The Post-Growth Project:how the end of economic growth could bring a fairer and happier society

This book challenges the assumption that it is bad news when the economy doesn’t grow. For decades, it has been widely recognized that there are ecological limits to continuing economic growth and that different ways of living, working and organizing our economies are urgently required. This urgency has increased since the financial crash of 2007–2008, but mainstream economists and politicians are unable to think differently. The authors of this book demonstrate why our economic system demands ecologically unsustainable growth and the pursuit of more ‘stuff’. They believe that what matters is quality, not quantity – a better life based on having fewer material possessions, less production and less work. Such a way of life will emphasize well‑being, community, security and ‘conviviality’. That is, more real wealth. The book will therefore appeal to everyone curious as to how a new post-growth economics can be conceived and enacted. It will be of particular interest to policy makers, politicians, businesspeople, trade unionists, academics, students, journalists and a wide range of people working in the not-for-profit sector. All of the contributors are leading thinkers on green issues and members of the new think-tank Green House.

International trade law, plain packaging and tobacco industry political activity:the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Tobacco companies are increasingly turning to trade and investment agreements to challenge measures aimed at reducing tobacco use. This study examines their efforts to influence the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a major trade and investment agreement which may eventually cover 40% of the world's population; focusing on how these efforts might enhance the industry's power to challenge the introduction of plain packaging. Specifically, the paper discusses the implications for public health regulation of Philip Morris International's interest in using the TPP to: shape the bureaucratic structures and decision-making processes of business regulation at the national level; introduce a higher standard of protection for trademarks than is currently provided under the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights; and expand the coverage of Investor-State Dispute Settlement which empowers corporations to litigate directly against governments where they are deemed to be in breach of investment agreements. The large number of countries involved in the TPP underlines its risk to the development of tobacco regulation globally.

Energy security in the news:North/South perspectives

Analysis of newspaper reporting on the topic of energy security in eight countries – four from the global North (France, Germany, the UK, and the United States) and four from the global South (China, India, Brazil, and South Africa) – produces no support for the thesis that news is disseminated from core countries to the periphery and semi-periphery. There is an important difference between China and the other three fast-developing countries and a highly asymmetric flow of news not aligned to old core-periphery boundaries. In general, energy security is mainly covered in trade and business outlets and less in newspapers with mass circulation, indicating that the topic is still an elite concern. In some instances, attention has surged at the same time in different countries. But very few of these instances show a homogenous coverage across countries. Despite increasingly globalised media, news is created and consumed at a national level.

Nemlineáris dinamika klasszikus növekedési modellekben (Nonlinear dynamics in classical economic growth models)

Ebben a tanulmányban a klasszikus Harrod növekedési modellt nemlineáris kiterjesztéssel, keynesi és schumpeteri tradíciók bevezetésével reprezentatív ügynök modellbe alakítjuk. A híres Lucas kritika igazolásaként megmutatjuk, hogy az intrinsic gazdasági növekedési ütemek trajektóriái vagy egy turbulens káoszba szóródnak szét, vagy egy nagyméretű rendhez vezetnek, ami elsődlegesen a megfelelő fogyasztási függvény típusától függ, s bizonyos paraméterek piaci értékei, pedig csak másodlagos szerepet játszanak. A másik meglepő eredmény empirikus, ami szerint külkereskedelmi többlet, a hazai valuta bizonyos devizapiaci értékei mellett, különös attraktorokat generálhat. _____ In this paper the classical Harrodian growth model is transformed into a representative agent model by its nonlinear extensions and the Keynesian and Schumpeterian traditions. For the proof of the celebrated Lucas critique it is shown that the trajectories of intrinsic economic growth rates either are scattered into a turbulent chaos or lead to a large scale order. It depends on the type of the appropriate consumption function, and the market values of some parameters are playing only secondary role.Another surprising result is empirical: the international trade su±cit may generate strange attractors under some exchange rate values.

International tourism : can it contribute to Nigeria's economic growth as other industrial sectors?

The growth of international tourism and the attendant economic benefits to the world nations, has been phenominal since the end of the second world war. It is considered that the industry's upsurge will continue even in the phase of various constraints exemplified in high fuel cost, constant increase in fares and the threatening world-wide recessions. Developed as well as developing countries have gained substantially from the industry. A recent development shows increasing tourist traffic towards developing countries, while developed countries still hold their fort in stable growth of tourist receipts. The strategic beneficial effects of international tourist industry are often quantified in terms of foreign exchange earnings, employments offered, and the Real Estate super-structures; but in general,the industry has innumerable direct and indirect benefits to any nation engaging in the trade. The objective of this thesis is to demonstrate by comparative analysis and proven parameters that the international tourist industry which is given low priority in development in Nigeria, can equally contribute to the nation's economic growth as other industrial sectors which receive high priority and patronage in development. The data for this paper are gathered from primary sources which are i) responses by the Federal and State Governments' tourism-related offices; ii) government publications e.a. the Third National Development Plan of Federal Republic of Nigeria; and iii) Books and collections. The secondary sources include reports,periodicals and hospitality industry publications. To formally establish the international tourist industry in Nigeria, all the governments (Federal, State and Local) and the private sector in the country, should commence the development of the industry with research and feasibility studies, to be followed by proper planning at all levels and based on the result of the research and feasibility studies.

Auditoría integrada de Información + Conocimiento: aplicación en un caso de estudio

Se presentan los resultados de la aplicación de una metodología integradora de auditoría de información y conocimiento, llevada a cabo en un Centro de Investigación del Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología y Medio Ambiente de la provincia de Holguín, Cuba, conformada por siete etapas con un enfoque híbrido dirigida a revisar la estrategia y la política de gestión de información y conocimiento, identificar e inventariar y mapear los recursos de I+C y sus flujos, y valorar los procesos asociados a su gestión. La alta dirección de este centro, sus especialistas e investigadores manifestaron la efectividad de la metodología aplicada cuyos resultados propiciaron reajustar la proyección estratégica en relación con la gestión de la I+C, rediseñar los flujos informativos de los procesos claves, disponer de un directorio de sus expertos por áreas y planificar el futuro aprendizaje y desarrollo profesional.

Setting the Rules of the Game: Mega-Regionals and the Role of the WTO

Faced with a WTO in a state of paralysis, large developed trading nations have shifted their attentions to other fora to pursue their trade policy objectives. In particular, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are now being used to promote the regulatory disciplines that were previously rejected by developing countries at the multilateral level. These so-called ‘deep’ or ‘21st century’ PTAs address a variety of issues, from technical norms, procurement, investment protection and intellectual property rights to social and environmental protection. Moreover, recently, developed countries have sought to negotiate PTAs which are large in scale, both in terms of economic size and geographical reach, including the so-called ‘mega-regional’ PTAs, such as the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, the EU-Japan PTA, the Transpacific Partnership, and the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. These mega-regional PTAs are distinctive not just in terms of their sheer size and the breadth and depth of issues addressed, but also because some of their proponents readily admit that one of the central aims pursued by such agreements is to design global rules on new trade issues. In other words, these agreements are being conceived as alternatives to multilateral rule making at the WTO level. The proliferation of 21st century trade deals raises important questions concerning the continued relevance of the WTO as a global rule-making venue, and the impact that the regulatory disciplines promoted in such agreements will have on both developing and developed countries. This paper discusses the emerging features of an international trading system that is increasingly populated by large-scale PTAs and discusses some of the points of tension that arise from such practice. Firstly, it examines instances of horizontal tension resulting from the proliferation of PTAs, particularly the extent to which such PTAs represent a threat or multilateral trade governance. Secondly, it looks at an example of vertical tension by examining the manner in which the imposition of regulatory disciplines through trade agreements can undermine the ability of countries, especially developing countries, to pursue legitimate public interest objectives. Finally, the paper considers a number of steps that could be considered to address some of the adverse effects associated with the fragmentation of the international trading system, including the option of embracing variable geometry within the WTO framework and the need to develop mechanisms that provide flexibility for developing countries in the implementation of regulatory disciplines.

National incomes and economic growth in pre-industrial Europe: insights from recent research

Pessimistic Malthusian verdicts on the capacity of pre-industrial European economies to sustain a degree of real economic growth under conditions of population growth are challenged using current reconstructions of urbanisation ratios, the real wage rates of building and agricultural labourers, and GDP per capita estimated by a range of methods. Economic growth is shown to have outpaced population growth and raised GDP per capita to in excess of $1,500 (1990 $ international at PPP) in Italy during its twelfth- and thirteenth-century commercial revolution, Holland during its fifteenth- and sixteenth-century golden age, and England during the seventeenth- and eighteenth-century runup to its industrial revolution. During each of these Smithian growth episodes expanding trade and commerce sustained significant output and employment growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. These positive developments were not necessarily reflected by trends in real wage rates for the latter were powerfully influenced by associated changes in relative factor prices and the per capita supply of labour as workers varied the length of the working year in order to consume either more leisure or more goods. The scale of the divergence between trends in real wage rates and GDP per capita nevertheless varied a great deal between countries for reasons which have yet to be adequately explained.