The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

eHabitat, a multi-purpose Web Processing Service for ecological modeling

The number of interoperable research infrastructures has increased significantly with the growing awareness of the efforts made by the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). One of the Societal Benefit Areas (SBA) that is benefiting most from GEOSS is biodiversity, given the costs of monitoring the environment and managing complex information, from space observations to species records including their genetic characteristics. But GEOSS goes beyond simple data sharing to encourage the publishing and combination of models, an approach which can ease the handling of complex multi-disciplinary questions. It is the purpose of this paper to illustrate these concepts by presenting eHabitat, a basic Web Processing Service (WPS) for computing the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties to those specified by a user. When chained with other services providing data on climate change, eHabitat can be used for ecological forecasting and becomes a useful tool for decision-makers assessing different strategies when selecting new areas to protect. eHabitat can use virtually any kind of thematic data that can be considered as useful when defining ecosystems and their future persistence under different climatic or development scenarios. The paper will present the architecture and illustrate the concepts through case studies which forecast the impact of climate change on protected areas or on the ecological niche of an African bird.

Strategic HRM:transforming its responsibilities toward ecological sustainability - the greatest global challenge facing organizations

If we are to move to a more sustainable world, all actorsÑincluding governments, organizations, communities, and individualsÑneed to play their part in committing to a shift in the way we live our lives. This conceptual article explores the challenges that face the human resource management (HRM) profession in moving to a strategic position that supports the requirements of the biophysical environment. We argue that this is becoming an imperative for the future survival and success of organizations large and small, and thus is likely to be a key "modus operandi" for HRM professionals in the future who are looking to embed ecological sustainability into their organizations. This article offers new insights into developing business strategies for ecological sustainability, highlighting the implications for strategic HRM activity through organizational effectiveness, leadership, values, and, ultimately, HRM processes and systems.

Decision–making Support Systems as Personal Intellectual Device of a Decision–maker

The problems of the cognitive development of subject “perception” are discussed in the thesis: from the object being studied and means of action till the single system “subject – modus operandi of subject – object”. Problems of increasing adequacy of models of “live” nature are analyzed. The concept of developing decisionmaking support systems as expert systems to decision-making support systems as personal device of a decisionmaker is discussed. The experience of the development of qualitative prediction on the basis of polyvalent dependences, represented by a decision tree, which realizes the concept of “plural subjective determinism”, is analyzed. The examples of applied systems prediction of ecological-economic and social processes are given. The ways of their development are discussed.

About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathematical models of decision making in ecologically- economic and social systems.

Comparison of different space indexing methods for ecological evaluation of urban openspaces

Nowadays we meet many different evaluation methods regarding the ecological performance of green surfaces and parks. All these methods are extremely valuable in determining how well a green surface performs from ecological aspect and to what extent the environment were damaged if these sites would be built or would be developed any other way causing reduction of green surfaces. The goal of the article is to clarify the differences between two evaluation methods (GSI – Green Space Intensity, BARC – Biological Activity Rate Calculation) suitable for urban green infrastructure analysis and to see if any significant difference can be observed evaluating the same site by these methods. Our research sites are in Budapest and their sizes vary between 2,5-8 acres. The most important aspects of site analysis are the following: size and boundaries of the park, existence or lack of water features, the characteristics of their surfaces and the complexity of vegetation. We summarize the data of the site analysis in tables, make a summarizing diagram for visual representation and draw conclusions from the results. As a final step, we evaluate how these two evaluation systems relate to urban open space developments.

Ecological effects of low-level phosphorus additions on two plant communities in a neotropical freshwater wetland ecosystem

We conducted a low-level phosphorus (P) enrichment study in two oligotrophic freshwater wetland communities (wet prairies [WP] and sawgrass marsh [SAW]) of the neotropical Florida Everglades. The experiment included three P addition levels (0, 3.33, and 33.3 mg P m−2 month−1), added over 2 years, and used in situ mesocosms located in northeastern Everglades National Park, Fla., USA. The calcareous periphyton mat in both communities degraded quickly and was replaced by green algae. In the WP community, we observed significant increases in net aboveground primary production (NAPP) and belowground biomass. Aboveground live standing crop (ALSC) did not show a treatment effect, though, because stem turnover rates of Eleocharis spp., the dominant emergent macrophyte in this community, increased significantly. Eleocharis spp. leaf tissue P content decreased with P additions, causing higher C:P and N:P ratios in enriched versus unenriched plots. In the SAW community, NAPP, ALSC, and belowground biomass all increased significantly in response to P additions. Cladium jamaicense leaf turnover rates and tissue nutrient content did not show treatment effects. The two oligotrophic communities responded differentially to P enrichment. Periphyton which was more abundant in the WP community, appeared to act as a P buffer that delayed the response of other ecosystem components until after the periphyton mat had disappeared. Periphyton played a smaller role in controlling ecosystem dynamics and community structure in the SAW community. Our data suggested a reduced reliance on internal stores of P by emergent macrophytes in the WP that were exposed to P enrichment. Eleocharis spp. rapidly recycled P through more rapid aboveground turnover. In contrast, C. jamaicense stored added P by initially investing in belowground biomass, then shifting growth allocation to aboveground tissue without increasing leaf turnover rates. Our results suggest that calcareous wetland systems throughout the Caribbean, and oligotrophic ecosystems in general, respond rapidly to low-level additions of their limiting nutrient.

Science behind management of Shark Bay and Florida Bay, two P-limited subtropical systems with different climatology and human pressures

This special issue on ‘Science for the management of subtropical embayments: examples from Shark Bay and Florida Bay’ is a valuable compilation of individual research outcomes from Florida Bay and Shark Bay from the past decade and addresses gaps in our scientific knowledge base in Shark Bay especially. Yet the compilation also demonstrates excellent research that is poorly integrated, and driven by interests and issues that do not necessarily lead to a more integrated stewardship of the marine natural values of either Shark Bay or Florida Bay. Here we describe the status of our current knowledge, introduce the valuable extension of the current knowledge through the papers in this issue and then suggest some future directions. For management, there is a need for a multidisciplinary international science program that focusses research on the ecological resilience of Shark Bay and Florida Bay, the effect of interactions between physical environmental drivers and biological control through behavioural and trophic interactions, and all under increased anthropogenic stressors. Shark Bay offers a ‘pristine template’ for this scale of study.

Does landscape context affect habitat value? The importance of seascape ecology in back-reef systems

Seascape ecology provides a useful framework from which to understand the processes governing spatial variability in ecological patterns. Seascape context, or the composition and pattern of habitat surrounding a focal patch, has the potential to impact resource availability, predator-prey interactions, and connectivity with other habitats. For my dissertation research, I combined a variety of approaches to examine how habitat quality for fishes is influenced by a diverse range of seascape factors in sub-tropical, back-reef ecosystems. In the first part of my dissertation, I examined how seascape context can affect reef fish communities on an experimental array of artificial reefs created in various seascape contexts in Abaco, Bahamas. I found that the amount of seagrass at large spatial scales was an important predictor of community assembly on these reefs. Additionally, seascape context had differing effects on various aspects of habitat quality for the most common reef species, White grunt Haemulon plumierii. The amount of seagrass at large spatial scales had positive effects on fish abundance and secondary production, but not on metrics of condition and growth. The second part of my dissertation focused on how foraging conditions for fish varied across a linear seascape gradient in the Loxahatchee River estuary in Florida, USA. Gray snapper, Lutjanus griseus, traded food quality for quantity along this estuarine gradient, maintaining similar growth rates and condition among sites. Additional work focused on identifying major energy flow pathways to two consumers in oyster-reef food webs in the Loxahatchee. Algal and microphytobenthos resource pools supported most of the production to these consumers, and body size for one of the consumers mediated food web linkages with surrounding mangrove habitats. All of these studies examined a different facet of the importance of seascape context in governing ecological processes occurring in focal habitats and underscore the role of connectivity among habitats in back-reef systems. The results suggest that management approaches consider the surrounding seascape when prioritizing areas for conservation or attempting to understand the impacts of seascape change on focal habitat patches. For this reason, spatially-based management approaches are recommended to most effectively manage back-reef systems.

Ecological Science and Transformation to the Sustainable City

There is growing urgency to enhance the sustainability of existing and emerging cities. The science of ecology, especially as it interacts with disciplines in the social sciences and urban design, has contributions to make to the sustainable transformation of urban systems. Not all possible urban transformations may lead toward sustainability. Ecological science helps identify components of resilience that can favor transformations that are more sustainable. To summarize the dynamics and choices involved in sustainable transformations, a “metacity” framework is presented, embracing ecological processes in cities as complementary to those involving society, power, and economy.

The Roles of Large Top Predators in Coastal Ecosystems: New Insights from Long Term Ecological Research

During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

Assessing the utility of geospatial technologies to investigate environmental change within lake systems

Over 50% of the world's population live within 3. km of rivers and lakes highlighting the on-going importance of freshwater resources to human health and societal well-being. Whilst covering c. 3.5% of the Earth's non-glaciated land mass, trends in the environmental quality of the world's standing waters (natural lakes and reservoirs) are poorly understood, at least in comparison with rivers, and so evaluation of their current condition and sensitivity to change are global priorities. Here it is argued that a geospatial approach harnessing existing global datasets, along with new generation remote sensing products, offers the basis to characterise trajectories of change in lake properties e.g., water quality, physical structure, hydrological regime and ecological behaviour. This approach furthermore provides the evidence base to understand the relative importance of climatic forcing and/or changing catchment processes, e.g. land cover and soil moisture data, which coupled with climate data provide the basis to model regional water balance and runoff estimates over time. Using examples derived primarily from the Danube Basin but also other parts of the World, we demonstrate the power of the approach and its utility to assess the sensitivity of lake systems to environmental change, and hence better manage these key resources in the future.

Towards an Ecological Pedagogy: Body Movement for Ecological Consciousness

This paper examines the moving body as a vehicle for raising ecological consciousness. Due to the modern over-preoccupation with the pursuit of rational aims, human interactions with the surrounding environment increasingly lack conscious awareness. Consequently, in the modern world people tend to lack an ecological consciousness. Nevertheless, the human body is a rich reservoir of ecological significance. From birth, humans are woven into tremendous interconnection with the world. However, humans thrive when their sensitivity to the physical world exists in harmony with their ability to pursue their rational aims. It is the combination of these characteristics that enables humans to survive in capricious surroundings and prosper in a wide array of contexts. Today, the human species faces an unprecedented crisis that threatens to collapse the reciprocality of the ecological bonds bolstering the prosperity of all worldly beings. This paper proposes that it is no longer a rational strategy for people to remain inattentive to their embodied ecological resonance, and that the moving body is an adequate pedagogical site for raising ecological consciousness. Ritualized body movements derived from Chinese traditional cultivation systems such as Taijiquan could orient practitioners to reestablish a perceptual intimacy with the larger cosmic world, thereby raising their ecological consciousness.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

Constructing stability landscapes to identify alternative states in coupled social-ecological agent-based models

The resilience of a social-ecological system is measured by its ability to retain core functionality when subjected to perturbation. Resilience is contextually dependent on the state of system components, the complex interactions among these components, and the timing, location, and magnitude of perturbations. The stability landscape concept provides a useful framework for considering resilience within the specified context of a particular social-ecological system but has proven difficult to operationalize. This difficulty stems largely from the complex, multidimensional nature of the systems of interest and uncertainty in system response. Agent-based models are an effective methodology for understanding how cross-scale processes within and across social and ecological domains contribute to overall system resilience. We present the results of a stylized model of agricultural land use in a small watershed that is typical of the Midwestern United States. The spatially explicit model couples land use, biophysical models, and economic drivers with an agent-based model to explore the effects of perturbations and policy adaptations on system outcomes. By applying the coupled modeling approach within the resilience and stability landscape frameworks, we (1) estimate the sensitivity of the system to context-specific perturbations, (2) determine potential outcomes of those perturbations, (3) identify possible alternative states within state space, (4) evaluate the resilience of system states, and (5) characterize changes in system-scale resilience brought on by changes in individual land use decisions.