Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Dynamics of Sodium‐22 and Cesium‐134 in Young Wheat Plants

The dynamics of the two alkali metals sodium and cesium in crop plants are relevant in an ecological context. Redistribution processes for these elements in young wheat plants were investigated in the work reported here. Two days old wheat plants (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Arina) were fed for 24 h with sodium‐22 (22Na) and cesium‐134 (134Cs) via the main root and incubated afterwards in a culture room. Cesium‐134 accumulated in newly formed parts of the main root and in the expanding leaves during the first 20 days after labeling, while 22Na accumulated transiently in these plant parts, reached a peak and declined after a few days. A high percentage of 22Na was released from the roots to the medium. Total Na in leaves also accumulated transiently, but its highest accumulation appeared later than the peak of 22Na. Therefore, the distribution and retranslocation processes differ considerably for sodium and cesium in wheat plants. Such differences must be considered for the evaluation of environmental effects (e.g., release of pollutants into the environment) on the quality of harvested cereal products.

Effects of climate, fire, and humans on forest dynamics: forest simulations compared to the palaeological record

In order to find out which factors influenced the forest dynamics in northern Italy during the Holocene, a palaeoecological approach involving pollen analysis was combined with ecosystem modelling. The dynamic and distribution based forest model DisCForm was run with different input scenarios for climate, species immigration, fire, and human impact and the similarity of the simulations with the original pollen record was assessed. From the comparisons of the model output and the pollen core, it appears that immigration was most important in the first part of the Holocene, and that fire and human activity had a major influence in the second half. Species not well represented in the simulation outputs are species with a higher abundance in the past than today (Corylus), with their habitat in riparian forests (Alnus) or with a strong response to human impact (Castanea).

Sequestration of plant secondary metabolites by insect herbivores: molecular mechanisms and ecological consequences

Numerous insect herbivores can take up and store plant toxins as self-defense against their own natural enemies. Plant toxin sequestration is tightly linked with tolerance strategies that keep the toxins functional. Specific transporters have been identified that likely allow the herbivore to control the spatiotemporal dynamics of toxin accumulation. Certain herbivores furthermore possess specific enzymes to boost the bioactivity of the sequestered toxins. Ecologists have studied plant toxin sequestration for decades. The recently uncovered molecular mechanisms in combination with transient, non-transgenic systems to manipulate insect gene expression will help to understand the importance of toxin sequestration for food-web dynamics in nature.

Ecological chaos in the wake of invasion.

Irregularities in observed population densities have traditionally been attributed to discretization of the underlying dynamics. We propose an alternative explanation by demonstrating the evolution of spatiotemporal chaos in reaction-diffusion models for predator-prey interactions. The chaos is generated naturally in the wake of invasive waves of predators. We discuss in detail the mechanism by which the chaos is generated. By considering a mathematical caricature of the predator-prey models, we go on to explain the dynamical origin of the irregular behavior and to justify our assertion that the behavior we present is a genuine example of spatiotemporal chaos.

Syntactic and Semantic Relationships in Models of Complex Systems: An Ecological Case

In this paper, the authors extend and generalize the methodology based on the dynamics of systems with the use of differential equations as equations of state, allowing that first order transformed functions not only apply to the primitive or original variables, but also doing so to more complex expressions derived from them, and extending the rules that determine the generation of transformed superior to zero order (variable or primitive). Also, it is demonstrated that for all models of complex reality, there exists a complex model from the syntactic and semantic point of view. The theory is exemplified with a concrete model: MARIOLA model.

Community dynamics of stabilized dune xerophytic shrubs

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Ecologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Ecological effects of an artificial island, Rincon Island, Punta Gorda, California /

This study documents marine ecological conditions at Rincon Island, located approximately 0.8 kilometer offshore between Ventura and Santa Barbara, California, in a depth of 14 meters. The island, which was constructed between 1957 and 1958 to serve as a permanent platform for oil and gas production, is particularly suitable for ecological study. Habitat features associated with the armor rock and concrete tetrapods surrounding the island support a 'microecosystem' which differs in biotic composition from surrounding natural bottom areas. A major part of the study was devoted to analysis of seasonal dynamics in biotic composition. Permanent transects extending from the high intertidal to natural bottom were established normal to each of the four cardinal sides of the island. All macrobiota were censused in duplicate 1-square meter quadrats along each transect during each of the four seasons. Data analysis indicated that many species exhibit significant variability in abundance from one season to the next. In general, the findings indicate a rich and varied fauna and flora associated with the high-relief solid substrate of Rincon Island which differs substantially from the more depauperate natural bottom habitats in the area.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics

A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics is presented. This is the stochastic SIS logistic model with the novel aspect that it incorporates varying carrying capacity. We present results of Kurtz and Barbour, that provide deterministic and diffusion approximations for a wide class of stochastic models, in a form that most easily allows their direct application to population models. These results are used to show that a suitably scaled version of the metapopulation model converges, uniformly in probability over finite time intervals, to a deterministic model previously studied in the ecological literature. Additionally, they allow us to establish a bivariate normal approximation to the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. This allows us to consider the effects of habitat dynamics on metapopulation modelling through a comparison with the stochastic SIS logistic model and provides an effective means for modelling metapopulations inhabiting dynamic landscapes.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Population dynamics and gene flow of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) on cotton and grain crops in the Murrumbidgee Valley, Australia

The population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the Murrumbidgee Valley, Australia, has been characterized using five highly variable microsatellite loci. In the 2001-2002 growing season, there were very high levels of migration into the Murrumbidgee Valley with no detectable genetic structuring, consistent with previous analyses on a national scale. By contrast, there was significant genetic structuring over the 2002-2003 growing season, with three distinct genetic types detected. The first type corresponded to the first two generations and was derived from local individuals emerging from diapause and their progeny. The second genetic type corresponded to generation 3 and resulted from substantial immigration into the region. There was another genetic shift in generation 4, which accounts for the third genetic type of the season. This genetic shift occurred despite low levels of immigration. During the third generation of the 2002-2003 growing season, different population dynamics was characterized for H. armigera on maize, Zea mays L., and cotton Gossipium hirsutum L. Populations on cotton tended to cycle independently with very little immigration from outside the region or from maize within the region. Maize acted as a major sink for immigrants from cotton and from outside the region. If resistance were to develop on cotton under these circumstances, susceptible individuals from maize or from other regions would not dilute this resistance. In addition, resistance is likely to be transferred to maize and be perpetuated until diapause, from where it may reemerge next season. If low levels of immigration were to occur on transgenic cotton, this may undermine the effectiveness of refugia, especially noncotton refugia.