Hungary and the eurozone crisis: a comedy of errors?

The spill-over of the global fi nancial crisis has uncovered the weaknesses in the governance of the EMU. As one of the most open economies in Europe, Hungary has suff ered from the ups and downs of the global and European crisis and its mismanagement. Domestic policy blunders have complicated the situation. This paper examines how Hungary has withstood the ups and downs of the eurozone crisis. It also addresses the questions of whether the country has converged with or diverged from the EMU membership, whether joining the EMU is still a good idea for Hungary, and whether the measures to ward off the crisis have actually helped to face the challenge of growth.

A temporary loss of pace or the "middle income trap" - a commentary on the tasks for Hungary's economic development

The latest Hungarian economic growth data, though favourable, do not let us forget that in the longer term growth is weak compared to the preceding period – as well as to the performance of the East-Central European region, which is more dynamic than the European average. In order to make sense of the past decade’s relative loss of pace and lay the foundations for future development policy, it is worth placing Hungary’s case in the context of the slowing tempo typical of middle-income countries. The economic development policies currently pursued by the government are aimed at increasing output in the processing industry, and by extension exports, while relevant international experience advises that it is the higher value-added activities of the global value chain, particularly business services, which should be developed further. In this way real wages and income levels could be increased, and the economy would be less exposed to the fluctuations of international cycles.

Correspondence of historic salinity fluctuations in Florida Bay, USA, to atmospheric variability and anthropogenic changes

Florida Bay is a highly dynamic estuary that exhibits wide natural fluctuations in salinity due to changes in the balance of precipitation, evaporation and freshwater runoff from the mainland. Rapid and large-scale modification of freshwater flow and construction of transportation conduits throughout the Florida Keys during the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries reshaped water circulation and salinity patterns across the ecosystem. In order to determine long-term patterns in salinity variation across the Florida Bay estuary, we used a diatom-based salinity transfer function to infer salinity within 3.27 ppt root mean square error of prediction from diatom assemblages from four ~130 year old sediment records. Sites were distributed along a gradient of exposure to anthropogenic shifts in the watershed and salinity. Precipitation was found to be the primary driver influencing salinity fluctuations over the entire record, but watershed modifications on the mainland and in the Florida Keys during the late-1800s and 1900s were the most likely cause of significant shifts in baseline salinity. The timing of these shifts in the salinity baseline varies across the Bay: that of the northeastern coring location coincides with the construction of the Florida Overseas Railway (AD 1906–1916), while that of the east-central coring location coincides with the drainage of Lake Okeechobee (AD 1881–1894). Subsequent decreases occurring after the 1960s (east-central region) and early 1980s (southwestern region) correspond to increases in freshwater delivered through water control structures in the 1950s–1970s and again in the 1980s. Concomitant increases in salinity in the northeastern and south-central regions of the Bay in the mid-1960s correspond to an extensive drought period and the occurrence of three major hurricanes, while the drop in the early 1970s could not be related to any natural event. This paper provides information about major factors influencing salinity conditions in Florida Bay in the past and quantitative estimates of the pre- and post-South Florida watershed modification salinity levels in different regions of the Bay. This information should be useful for environmental managers in setting restoration goals for the marine ecosystems in South Florida, especially for Florida Bay.

Historical analysis of two contemporary issues at the International Community School of Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire: Local -hired and overseas -hired teacher relationships. Community perceptions of the U.S. Embassy at ICSA

This study was a qualitative investigation to ascertain and describe two of the current issues at the International Community School of Abidjan, examine their historical bases, and analyze their impact on the school environment.^ Two issues emerged during the inquiry phase of this study: (1) the relationship between local-hired and overseas-hired teachers in light of the January 1994 devaluation which polarized the staff by negating a four-year salary scale that established equity, (2) the school community's wide variance in the perceived power that the U.S. Embassy has on school operations based on its role as ICSA's founding sponsor.^ A multiple studies approach was used in gathering data. An extensive examination of the school's archives was used to reconstruct an historical overview of ICSA. An initial questionnaire was distributed to teachers and administrators at an educational conference to determine the scope of the 1994 devaluation of the West and Central African CFA and its impact on school personnel in West African American-sponsored overseas schools (ASOS). Personal interviews were conducted with the school staff, administration, school board members, and relevant historical participants to determine the principal issues at ICSA at that time. The researcher, an overseas-hired teacher, also used participant observations to collect data. Findings based on these sources were used to analyze the two issues from an historical perspective and to form conclusions.^ Findings in this study pertaining to the events induced by the French and African governments' decision to implement a currency devaluation in January 1994 were presented in ex post-facto chronological narrative form to describe the events which transpired, describe the perception of school personnel involved in these events, examine the final resolution and interpret these events within a historical framework for analysis.^ The topic of the U.S. Embassy and its role at ICSA emerged inductively from open-ended personal interviews conducted over the course of a year. Contradictory perspectives were examined and researched for accuracy and cause. The results of this inquiry presented the U.S. Embassy role at ICSA from a two-sided perspective, examined the historical role of the Embassy, and presented means by which the role and responsibility of the U.S. Embassy could best be communicated to the school community.^ The final chapter provides specific actions for mediation of problems stemming from these issues, implications for administrators and teachers currently involved in overseas schools or considering the possibility, and suggestions for future inquiries.^ Examination of a two-tier salary scale for local-hired and overseas-hired teachers generated the following recommendations: movement towards a single salary scale when feasible, clearly stated personnel policies and full disclosure of benefits, a uniform certification standard, professional development programs and awareness of the impact of this issue on staff morale.^ Divergent perceptions and attitudes toward the role of the U.S. Embassy produced these recommendations: a view towards limiting the number of Americans on ASOS school boards, open school board meetings, selection of Embassy Administrative Officers who can educate school communities on the exact role of the Embassy, educating parents through the outreach activities that communicate American educational philosophy and involve all segments of the international community, and a firm effort on the part of the ASOS to establish the school's autonomy from special interests. ^

Análise do grau de proteção do Aquífero Barreiras em perímetros sob fertilização química a partir de dados hidrogeofísicos - área da bacia do Rio Catu-RN

The use of chemical fertilization in arable perimeters provides increased productivity, though it can eventually lead to a qualitative depreciation of groundwater sources, especially if such sources are unconfined in nature. In this context, this thesis presents results from an analysis of the level of natural protection of the Barreiras Aquifer in an area located on the eastern coast of the Rio Grande do Norte State - Brazil. Such an aquifer is clastic in nature and has an unconfined hydraulic character, which clearly makes it susceptible to contamination from surface ground loads with contaminants associated with the leaching of excess fertilizers not absorbed by ground vegetation. The methodology used was based on the use of hydro-geophysical data, particularly inverse models of vertical electrical soundings (VES) and information from well profiles, allowing the acquisition of longitudinal conductance cartographies (S), data in mili-Siemens (mS), and the vulnerability of the aquifer. Such maps were prepared with emphasis to the unsaturated overlying zone, highlighting in particular its thickness and occurrence of clay lithologies. Thus, the longitudinal conductance and aquifer vulnerability reveal areas more susceptible to contamination in the northeast and east-central sections of the study area, with values equal to or less than 10mS and greater than or equal to 0,50, respectively. On the other hand, the southwestern section proved to be less susceptible to contamination, whose longitudinal conductance and vulnerability indices are greater than or equal to 30mS and less than or equal to 0,40, respectively.

Análise do grau de proteção do Aquífero Barreiras em perímetros sob fertilização química a partir de dados hidrogeofísicos - área da bacia do Rio Catu-RN

The use of chemical fertilization in arable perimeters provides increased productivity, though it can eventually lead to a qualitative depreciation of groundwater sources, especially if such sources are unconfined in nature. In this context, this thesis presents results from an analysis of the level of natural protection of the Barreiras Aquifer in an area located on the eastern coast of the Rio Grande do Norte State - Brazil. Such an aquifer is clastic in nature and has an unconfined hydraulic character, which clearly makes it susceptible to contamination from surface ground loads with contaminants associated with the leaching of excess fertilizers not absorbed by ground vegetation. The methodology used was based on the use of hydro-geophysical data, particularly inverse models of vertical electrical soundings (VES) and information from well profiles, allowing the acquisition of longitudinal conductance cartographies (S), data in mili-Siemens (mS), and the vulnerability of the aquifer. Such maps were prepared with emphasis to the unsaturated overlying zone, highlighting in particular its thickness and occurrence of clay lithologies. Thus, the longitudinal conductance and aquifer vulnerability reveal areas more susceptible to contamination in the northeast and east-central sections of the study area, with values equal to or less than 10mS and greater than or equal to 0,50, respectively. On the other hand, the southwestern section proved to be less susceptible to contamination, whose longitudinal conductance and vulnerability indices are greater than or equal to 30mS and less than or equal to 0,40, respectively.

Chemical composition of a manganese nodule from the Tiki Basin, Touamotou Archipelago, Pacific Ocean

The text studies the deep-sea red clays in the East-Central Pacific ocean (Tahiti-Touamotou Archipelago), their authigenic formation, transport and diagenetic character in particular through their composition in REE.

Chemistry and stable isotope record of sediment core GeoB4905-4

Evidence of rapid climatic oscillations like those observed in the Greenland ice cores and sediments from high latitudes of the northern Atlantic have been recognized in the pulses of terrigenous material to continental margin sediments off Cameroon. Fe/Ca ratios used as a parameter to quantify the relative proportions of terrigenous fluxes versus marine carbonate monitor the variability of the west African monsoon. They reveal the history of abrupt changes in precipitation over western and central Africa during the past 52 kyr. These rapid changes are particularly pronounced during the last glacial period and occur at timescales of a few thousand years. Stable oxygen isotope (delta18O) records of Globigerinoides ruber (pink) show high negative values reflecting periods of high monsoon precipitation. The Fe/Ca pattern is very similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles from the Greenland ice cores. The good correspondence between the warm interstadials of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles from the GISP2 ice core records and the high pulses of Fe/Ca sedimentation in our core suggest a strong teleconnection between the low-latitude African climate and the high-latitude northern hemisphere climate oscillations during the last glacial. This climatic link is probably vested in the west African monsoonal fluctuation that alters tropical sea surface temperatures, thermohaline circulations and in turn net export of heat from the south to the north Atlantic, coupled with the variability of the low-latitude southeast trade winds.

Bulk and molecular proxies of sediment core GeoB6518-1

A 20 kyr long sediment sequence from the Congo deep sea fan (core GeoB 6518-1), one of the world's largest deep sea river fans, has been analysed for bulk and molecular proxies in order to reconstruct the marine, soil and plant organic carbon (OC) contributions to these sediments since the last glacial maximum. The bulk proxies applied, C/N ratio and d13Corg, ranged from 10 to 12.5 and from -24.5 to -21 per mill VPDB, respectively. As molecular proxies, concentrations of marine derived alkenones and terrestrial derived odd-numbered n-alkanes were used, which varied between 0.2 and 4 µg/g dry weight sediment. In addition, the branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index, a proxy for soil organic matter input, was used, which varied from 0.3 to 0.5 in this core. Application of binary mixing models, based on the different individual proxies, showed estimates for terrestrial OC input varying by up to 50% due to the heterogeneous nature of the OC. Application of a three end-member mixing model using the d13Corg content, the C/N ratio and the BIT index, enabled the distinction of soil and plant organic matter as separate contributors to the sedimentary OC pool. The results show that marine OC accounts for 20% to 40% of the total OC present in the deep sea fan sediments over the last 20 kyr and that soil OC accounts for about half (45% on average) of the OC present. This suggests that soil OC represents the majority of the terrestrial OC delivered to the fan sediments. Accumulation rates of the plant and soil OC fractions over the last 20 kyr varied by a factor of up to 5, and are strongly related to sediment accumulation rates. They showed an increase starting at ca. 17 kyr BP, a decline during the Younger Dryas, peak values during the early Holocene and lower values in the late Holocene. This pattern matches with reconstructions of past central African humidity and Congo River discharge from the same core and revealed that central African precipitation patterns exert a dominant control on terrestrial OC deposition in the Congo deep sea fan. Marine OC accumulation rates are only weakly related to sediment accumulation rates and vary only little over time compared to the terrigenous fractions. These variations are likely a result of enhanced preservation during times of higher sedimentation rates and of relative small fluctuations in primary production due to wind-driven upwelling.

Isotope record of Nd-Sr-Pb in deep sea sediments from the Pacific (Table 2)

Pelagic clay of the east-central Pacific province is shown to be a mixture of three primary detrital components, reflecting continental source areas in Asia, North America, and Central and South America. Relative contributions from each source area are a function of geography, and this distribution appears to have remained constant over the past five million years, despite changing flux rates. A Q-mode factor analysis of downcore records for Pb, Sr, and Nd isotopes identified three factors that account for 98% of the total variance. These factors represent the radiogenic isotopic signatures of 1) late Cenozoic Asian dust, which dominates in the central North Pacific; 2) North American continental hemipelagic/eolian sources, restricted mainly to the easternmost North Pacific at ~30 °N latitude; and 3) Central and South American sources, restricted to areas east of ~100 °W longitude. South of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (~6 °N), the Asian dust signature diminishes abruptly. We conclude that late Cenozoic Asian dust sources can be isotopically differentiated downcore from both North American and South and Central American sources in the eastcentral Pacific. This approach has a utility for identifying changes in long-term Cenozoic atmospheric circulation patterns.

Document Management System: Strategic Plan, 1996

This Strategic Plan provides the Iowa Department of Transportation with guidelines for defining the acquisition and implementation of a document management system to automate current manual methods of document handling and distribution. In preparation for the production of the Strategic Plan, the USI Team conducted a series of user interviews at the DOT Ames and East Central Iowa Transportation Region facilities, and reviewed various documents relating to day-to-day operations.

Phylogenetic analyses of chikungunya virus among travelers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2014-2015

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that emerged in Brazil by late 2014. In the country, two CHIKV foci characterized by the East/Central/South Africa and Asian genotypes, were established in North and Northeast regions. We characterized, by phylogenetic analyses of full and partial genomes, CHIKV from Rio de Janeiro state (2014-2015). These CHIKV strains belong to the Asian genotype, which is the determinant of the current Northern Brazilian focus, even though the genome sequence presents particular single nucleotide variations. This study provides the first genetic characterisation of CHIKV in Rio de Janeiro and highlights the potential impact of human mobility in the spread of an arthropod-borne virus.

Sixty Years On: How the Superpowers Could Have Avoided the 1956 Hungarian Revolution

Following the political transition in Hungary and in East-Central Europe in 1989-90 an archival revolution unfolded in the countries of the former Soviet bloc, including Russia after 1991. Thanks to this process, the previously taboo topic of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution has become one of the best researched events of the history of the Soviet Bloc by the time of the sixtieth anniversary of the events. This includes the international context of the revolt as well, which has been covered by scholars in Hungary and abroad based on multiarchival evidence.