Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Transmission network expansion planning considering repowering and reconfiguration

Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is a classic problem in electric power systems. In current optimization models used to approach the TEP problem, new transmission lines and two-winding transformers are commonly used as the only candidate solutions. However, in practice, planners have resorted to non-conventional solutions such as network reconfiguration and/or repowering of existing network assets (lines or transformers). These types of non-conventional solutions are currently not included in the classic mathematical models of the TEP problem. This paper presents the modeling of necessary equations, using linear expressions, in order to include non-conventional candidate solutions in the disjunctive linear model of the TEP problem. The resulting model is a mixed integer linear programming problem, which guarantees convergence to the optimal solution by means of available classical optimization tools. The proposed model is implemented in the AMPL modeling language and is solved using CPLEX optimizer. The Garver test system, IEEE 24-busbar system, and a Colombian system are used to demonstrate that the utilization of non-conventional candidate solutions can reduce investment costs of the TEP problem. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Desenvolvimento de metodologia de eficiência energética para aplicação em processos industriais de laticínios

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Desenvolvimento de um sistema de controle para avaliação de fontes de energias renováveis no bombeamento de água

The use of alternative energy systems in the current days is an urgent necessity due to the problems that the planet is facing as the heating and loss of ozone layer. The scarcity of conventional energy is another problem that must be solved for the future of humanity. It must be considered that the people are inhabiting places moved away not always with available energy. The application of technologies as automation and control can help us to solve this problem. Therefore, this work aimed at apply an equipment of industrial usage, the Programmable Logical Controller, PLC, in alternative energies systems, as eolic generation and fotovoltaic generation used for water pumping, aiming the automatic control and the efficiency in the places where it has simultaneous availability of these sources, based in criterion of priority that previously established itself between them. It was made a hydraulic and energetic evaluation of the energy system, eolic and fotovoltaic, used in the automatic control system of pumping, in the place of accomplishment of the experiment, according to previously established physical conditions. The results have shown that the control system using the PLC is practicable and has trustworthiness. The program developed can be adapted for the use with several power plants in a specific application place. The fotovoltaic system of pumping, using a polycrystalline of 70 Watts connected to a pump Shurflo 8000, showed to be efficient with significant flows in almost all the months. The eolic system of pumping, using an eolic generator of 400 Watts assembled in place of experiment, did not demonstrate energetic capacity for use in this specific type of application.

Distorções harmônicas produzidas por inversores de geração distribuída fotovoltaica em condição de ressonância paralela

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Robust and optimal adjustment of Power System Stabilizers through Linear Matrix Inequalities

This work presents the application of Linear Matrix Inequalities to the robust and optimal adjustment of Power System Stabilizers with pre-defined structure. Results of some tests show that gain and zeros adjustments are sufficient to guarantee robust stability and performance with respect to various operating points. Making use of the flexible structure of LMI's, we propose an algorithm that minimizes the norm of the controllers gain matrix while it guarantees the damping factor specified for the closed loop system, always using a controller with flexible structure. The technique used here is the pole placement, whose objective is to place the poles of the closed loop system in a specific region of the complex plane. Results of tests with a nine-machine system are presented and discussed, in order to validate the algorithm proposed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel method for power quality multiple disturbance decomposition based on Independent Component Analysis

In this paper, a novel method for power quality signal decomposition is proposed based on Independent Component Analysis (ICA). This method aims to decompose the power system signal (voltage or current) into components that can provide more specific information about the different disturbances which are occurring simultaneously during a multiple disturbance situation. The ICA is originally a multichannel technique. However, the method proposes its use to blindly separate out disturbances existing in a single measured signal (single channel). Therefore, a preprocessing step for the ICA is proposed using a filter bank. The proposed method was applied to synthetic data, simulated data, as well as actual power system signals, showing a very good performance. A comparison with the decomposition provided by the Discrete Wavelet Transform shows that the proposed method presented better decoupling for the analyzed data. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical tools to assess the voltage stability of induction-based distributed generators

The installation of induction distributed generators should be preceded by a careful study in order to determine if the point of common coupling is suitable for transmission of the generated power, keeping acceptable power quality and system stability. In this sense, this paper presents a simple analytical formulation that allows a fast and comprehensive evaluation of the maximum power delivered by the induction generator, without losing voltage stability. Moreover, this formulation can be used to identify voltage stability issues that limit the generator output power. All the formulation is developed by using the equivalent circuit of squirrel-cage induction machine. Simulation results are used to validate the method, which enables the approach to be used as a guide to reduce the simulation efforts necessary to assess the maximum output power and voltage stability of induction generators. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Algebraic-graph method for identification of islanding in power system grids

In this paper, a new algebraic-graph method for identification of islanding in power system grids is proposed. The proposed method identifies all the possible cases of islanding, due to the loss of a equipment, by means of a factorization of the bus-branch incidence matrix. The main features of this new method include: (i) simple implementation, (ii) high speed, (iii) real-time adaptability, (iv) identification of all islanding cases and (v) identification of the buses that compose each island in case of island formation. The method was successfully tested on large-scale systems such as the reduced south Brazilian system (45 buses/72 branches) and the south-southeast Brazilian system (810 buses/1340 branches). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

I dati metereologici per applicazioni energetiche e ambientali

Many energetic and environmental evaluations need appropriate meteorological data, as input to analysis and prevision softwares. In Italy there aren't adeguate meteorological data because, in many cases, they are incomplete, incorrect and also very expensive for a long-term analysis (that needs multi-year data sets). A possible solution to this problem is the use of a Typical Meteorological Year (TRY), generated for specific applications. Nowadays the TRYs have been created, using statistical criteria, just for the analysis of solar energy systems and for predicting the thermal performance of buildings, applying it also to the study of photovoltaic plants (PV), though not specifically created for this type of application. The present research has defined the methodology for the creation of TRYs for different applications. In particular TRYs for environmental and wind plant analysis have been created. This is the innovative aspect of this research, never explored before. In additions, the methodology of the generation for the PV TRYs has been improved. The results are very good and the TRYs generated for these applications are adeguate to characterize the climatic condition of the place over a long period and can be used for energetic and environmental studies.

Analisi della stabilità dei risultati dei test di risposta termica: prove in campo, confronto e analisi critica per diversi metodi di esecuzione e modellizzazione

Il Test di Risposta Termica (Thermal Response Test-TRT) (Mogenson,1983) è il test esistente con il più alto grado di accuratezza per la caratterizzazione del reservoir geotermico superficiale. Il test consiste in una simulazione in situ del funzionamento di un sistema a circuito chiuso di sfruttamento dell’energia geotermica, per un periodo limitato di tempo, attraverso l’iniezione o estrazione di calore a potenza costante all’interno del geo-scambiatore (Borehole Heat Exchanger-BHE). Dall’analisi della variazione delle temperature del fluido circolante, è possibile avere una stima delle proprietà termiche medie del volume del reservoir geotermico interessato dal test. Le grandezze principali per la caratterizzazione di un serbatoio geotermico sono la conduttività termica (λ), la capacità termica volumetrica (c), la temperatura indisturbata del suolo (Tg) e la resistenza termica del pozzo (Rb); la loro determinazione è necessaria per il corretto progettazione degli geo-scambiatori. I risultati del TRT sono tuttavia sensibili alle condizioni al contorno spazio-temporali quali ad es.: variazione della temperatura del terreno, movimento d’acqua di falda, condizioni metereologiche, eventi stagionali, ecc. Questo lavoro vuole: i) introdurre uno studio sui problemi di caratterizzazione del reservoir geotermico superficiale, in particolare analizzando l’effetto che il movimento d’acqua di falda ha sui parametri termici; ii) analizzare la sensitività dei risultati del test alle variabilità dei parametri caratteristici del funzionamento delle attrezzature. Parte del lavoro della mia tesi è stata svolta in azienda per un periodo di 4 mesi presso la “Groenholland Geo Energy systems” che ha sede ad Amsterdam in Olanda. Tre diversi esperimenti sono stati realizzati sullo stesso sito (stratigrafia nota del terreno: argilla, sabbia fine e sabbia grossa) usando una sonda profonda 30 metri e diversi pozzi per l’estrazione d’acqua e per monitorare gli effetti in prossimità del geo scambiatore. I risultati degli esperimenti sono stati molto diversi tra di loro, non solo in termini di dati registrati (temperature del fluido termovettore), ma in termini dei valori dei parametri ottenuti elaborando i dati. In particolare non è sufficiente adottare il modello classico della sorgente lineare infinita (Infinite Line Source Solution- ILS) (Ingersoll and Plass, 1948), il quale descrive il trasferimento di calore per conduzione in un mezzo omogeneo indefinito a temperatura costante. Infatti, lo scambio di calore avviene anche tramite convezione causata dal movimento d’acqua di falda, non identificabile mediante gli approcci classici tipo CUSUM test (Cumulative Sum test) (Brown e altri,1975) Lo studio della tesi vuole dare un quadro di riferimento per correlare la variabilità dei risultati con la variabilità delle condizioni al contorno. L’analisi integra le metodologie classiche (ILS) con un approccio geostatistico utile a comprendere i fenomeni e fluttuazioni che caratterizzano il test. Lo studio delle principali variabili e parametri del test, quali temperatura in ingresso e uscita del fluido termovettore, portata del fluido e potenza iniettata o estratta, è stato sviluppato mediante: il variogramma temporale, ovvero la semivarianza dell’accrescimento, che esprime il tipo di autocorrelazione temporale della variabile in esame; la covarianza incrociata temporale, ovvero la covarianza fra due variabili del sistema, che ne definisce quantitativamente il grado di correlazione in funzionamento del loro sfasamento temporale. L’approccio geostatistico proposto considera la temperatura del fluido Tf come una funzione aleatoria (FA) non stazionaria nel tempo (Chiles, 1999), il cui trend è formalmente definito, ma deve essere identificato numericamente. Si considera quindi un classico modello a residuo; in cui la FA è modellizzata come la somma di un termine deterministico, la media (il valore atteso) m(t),coincidente col modello descritto dalla teoria della sorgente lineare infinità, e di un termine aleatorio, la fluttuazione, Y(t). Le variabili portata e potenza sono invece considerate delle funzioni aleatorie stazionarie nel tempo, ovvero a media costante. Da questo studio di Tesi si sono raggiunte delle conclusioni molto importanti per lo studio del TRT: Confronto tra gli esperimenti in estrazione di calore, con e senza movimento d’acqua di falda: si studia l’effetto indotto dalla falda sul TRT. E’ possibile caratterizzare quantitativamente l’incremento della conducibilità termica equivalente legata a fenomeni convettivi dovuti al movimento d’acqua di falda. Inoltre, i variogrammi sperimentali evidenziano periodicità simili nei due casi e legate al funzionamento della pompa di calore e della componentistica associata ed alla circolazione del fluido termovettore all’interno della sonda. Tuttavia, la componente advettiva ha un effetto di smorzamento sulle piccole periodicità dei variogrammi, ma di aumento dell’ampiezza delle periodicità maggiori a causa del funzionamento della pompa di calore che deve fornire maggiore energia al sistema per bilanciare le dispersioni dovute al movimento d’acqua di falda. Confronto fra estrazione ed iniezione di calore, con movimento d’acqua di falda: si studia la significatività dei risultati nei due casi. L’analisi delle variografie evidenzia significative differenze nella struttura dei variogrammi sperimentali. In particolare, nel test con iniezione di calore i variogrammi sperimentali delle temperature hanno valori sistematicamente inferiori, circostanza che assicura una migliore precisione nella stima dei parametri termici. Quindi eseguire il TRT in iniezione di calore risulta più preciso. Dall’analisi dei variogrammi sperimentali delle singole variabili quali temperatura del fluido in ingresso e uscita all’interno del geoscambiatore è stato confermato il fenomeno di smorzamento delle oscillazioni da parte del terreno. Dall’analisi delle singole variabili del test (temperature, potenza, portata) è stata confermata l’indipendenza temporale fra portate e temperature. Ciò è evidenziato dalle diverse strutture dei variogrammi diretti e dalle covarianze incrociate prossime a zero. Mediante correlogrami è stato dimostrato la possibilità di calcolare il tempo impiegato dal fluido termovettore per circolare all’interno della sonda. L’analisi geostatistica ha permesso quindi di studiare in dettaglio la sensitività dei risultati del TRT alle diverse condizioni al contorno, quelle legate al reservoir e quelle legate al funzionamento delle attrezzature

Design and optimization of turbo-expanders for organic rankine cycles

In a world focused on the need to produce energy for a growing population, while reducing atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide, organic Rankine cycles represent a solution to fulfil this goal. This study focuses on the design and optimization of axial-flow turbines for organic Rankine cycles. From the turbine designer point of view, most of this fluids exhibit some peculiar characteristics, such as small enthalpy drop, low speed of sound, large expansion ratio. A computational model for the prediction of axial-flow turbine performance is developed and validated against experimental data. The model allows to calculate turbine performance within a range of accuracy of ±3%. The design procedure is coupled with an optimization process, performed using a genetic algorithm where the turbine total-to-static efficiency represents the objective function. The computational model is integrated in a wider analysis of thermodynamic cycle units, by providing the turbine optimal design. First, the calculation routine is applied in the context of the Draugen offshore platform, where three heat recovery systems are compared. The turbine performance is investigated for three competing bottoming cycles: organic Rankine cycle (operating cyclopentane), steam Rankine cycle and air bottoming cycle. Findings indicate the air turbine as the most efficient solution (total-to-static efficiency = 0.89), while the cyclopentane turbine results as the most flexible and compact technology (2.45 ton/MW and 0.63 m3/MW). Furthermore, the study shows that, for organic and steam Rankine cycles, the optimal design configurations for the expanders do not coincide with those of the thermodynamic cycles. This suggests the possibility to obtain a more accurate analysis by including the computational model in the simulations of the thermodynamic cycles. Afterwards, the performance analysis is carried out by comparing three organic fluids: cyclopentane, MDM and R245fa. Results suggest MDM as the most effective fluid from the turbine performance viewpoint (total-to-total efficiency = 0.89). On the other hand, cyclopentane guarantees a greater net power output of the organic Rankine cycle (P = 5.35 MW), while R245fa represents the most compact solution (1.63 ton/MW and 0.20 m3/MW). Finally, the influence of the composition of an isopentane/isobutane mixture on both the thermodynamic cycle performance and the expander isentropic efficiency is investigated. Findings show how the mixture composition affects the turbine efficiency and so the cycle performance. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates that the use of binary mixtures leads to an enhancement of the thermodynamic cycle performance.

Development of Dynamic Constraint Models for a Model Based Transient Calibration Process

Model based calibration has gained popularity in recent years as a method to optimize increasingly complex engine systems. However virtually all model based techniques are applied to steady state calibration. Transient calibration is by and large an emerging technology. An important piece of any transient calibration process is the ability to constrain the optimizer to treat the problem as a dynamic one and not as a quasi-static process. The optimized air-handling parameters corresponding to any instant of time must be achievable in a transient sense; this in turn depends on the trajectory of the same parameters over previous time instances. In this work dynamic constraint models have been proposed to translate commanded to actually achieved air-handling parameters. These models enable the optimization to be realistic in a transient sense. The air handling system has been treated as a linear second order system with PD control. Parameters for this second order system have been extracted from real transient data. The model has been shown to be the best choice relative to a list of appropriate candidates such as neural networks and first order models. The selected second order model was used in conjunction with transient emission models to predict emissions over the FTP cycle. It has been shown that emission predictions based on air-handing parameters predicted by the dynamic constraint model do not differ significantly from corresponding emissions based on measured air-handling parameters.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 1: data requirements, processing, and analysis

This is the first part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The motivation is to populate hundreds of parameters (which can be calibrated) in a methodical and optimum manner by using model-based optimization in conjunction with the manual process so that, relative to the manual process used by itself, a significant improvement in transient emissions and fuel consumption and a sizable reduction in calibration time and test cell requirements is achieved. Empirical transient modelling and optimization has been addressed in the second part of this work, while the required data for model training and generalization are the focus of the current work. Transient and steady-state data from a turbocharged multicylinder diesel engine have been examined from a model training perspective. A single-cylinder engine with external air-handling has been used to expand the steady-state data to encompass transient parameter space. Based on comparative model performance and differences in the non-parametric space, primarily driven by a high engine difference between exhaust and intake manifold pressures (ΔP) during transients, it has been recommended that transient emission models should be trained with transient training data. It has been shown that electronic control module (ECM) estimates of transient charge flow and the exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) fraction cannot be accurate at the high engine ΔP frequently encountered during transient operation, and that such estimates do not account for cylinder-to-cylinder variation. The effects of high engine ΔP must therefore be incorporated empirically by using transient data generated from a spectrum of transient calibrations. Specific recommendations on how to choose such calibrations, how many data to acquire, and how to specify transient segments for data acquisition have been made. Methods to process transient data to account for transport delays and sensor lags have been developed. The processed data have then been visualized using statistical means to understand transient emission formation. Two modes of transient opacity formation have been observed and described. The first mode is driven by high engine ΔP and low fresh air flowrates, while the second mode is driven by high engine ΔP and high EGR flowrates. The EGR fraction is inaccurately estimated at both modes, while EGR distribution has been shown to be present but unaccounted for by the ECM. The two modes and associated phenomena are essential to understanding why transient emission models are calibration dependent and furthermore how to choose training data that will result in good model generalization.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 2: modelling and optimization

This is the second part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The first part addressed the data requirements and data processing required for empirical transient emission and torque models. The current work focuses on modelling and optimization. The unexpected result of this investigation is that when trained on transient data, simple regression models perform better than more powerful methods such as neural networks or localized regression. This result has been attributed to extrapolation over data that have estimated rather than measured transient air-handling parameters. The challenges of detecting and preventing extrapolation using statistical methods that work well with steady-state data have been explained. The concept of constraining the distribution of statistical leverage relative to the distribution of the starting solution to prevent extrapolation during the optimization process has been proposed and demonstrated. Separate from the issue of extrapolation is preventing the search from being quasi-static. Second-order linear dynamic constraint models have been proposed to prevent the search from returning solutions that are feasible if each point were run at steady state, but which are unrealistic in a transient sense. Dynamic constraint models translate commanded parameters to actually achieved parameters that then feed into the transient emission and torque models. Combined model inaccuracies have been used to adjust the optimized solutions. To frame the optimization problem within reasonable dimensionality, the coefficients of commanded surfaces that approximate engine tables are adjusted during search iterations, each of which involves simulating the entire transient cycle. The resulting strategy, different from the corresponding manual calibration strategy and resulting in lower emissions and efficiency, is intended to improve rather than replace the manual calibration process.