Factors affecting farmland prices in Finland

The purpose of the study was to analyse factors affecting the differences in land prices between regions. The key issue was to find out the policy effects on farmland prices. In addition to comprehensive literature review, a theoretical analysis as well as modern panel and spatial econometric techniques were utilized. The study clearly pointed out the importance of taking into account the possible spatial dependence. The data were exceptionally large, comprising more than 6 000 observations. Thus, it allowed a thorough econometric estimation including the possibility to take into account the spatial nature of the data. This study supports the view that there are many other factors that affect farmland prices besides pure agricultural returns. It was also found that the support clearly affects land prices. However, rather than assuming the discount rates for support and market returns to be similar, the rough analysis refers to the discount rate for support being a little lower. If this were true it would indicate that farmers rely more on support income than market returns. The results support the view presented in literature that land values are more responsive to government payments when these payments are perceived to be permanent. An important result of this study is that the structural differences between regions and the structural change in agriculture seemed to have a considerable role in affecting land prices. Firstly, the present structure affects the competition in the land market: the more dense farms are in the region the more there are potential buyers, and the land price increases. Secondly, the change in farm structure (especially in animal husbandry) connected to the policy changes that increase area-based support affects land prices. The effect comes from two sources. Growing farms need more land for the manure, and the proportion of retiring farmers may be lower. The introduction of the manure density variable proved to be an efficient way to aggregate the otherwise very difficult task of taking into account the environmental pressure caused by structural change in animal husbandry. Finally, infrastructure also has a very important role in determining the price level of agricultural land. If other industries are prospering in the surrounding area, agricultural viability also seems to improve. The non-farm opportunities offered to farm families make continuing and developing farming more tempting.

Thekopsora minima causes blueberry rust in south-eastern Queensland and northern New South Wales

The cause of blueberry rust in eastern Australia was determined by molecular and morphological analysis as Thekopsora minima.

Rural Income Generation and Diversification : A Case Study in Eastern Zambia

Rural income diversification has been found to be rather the norm than the exception in developing countries. Smallholder households tend to diversify their income sources because of the need to manage risks, secure a smooth flow of income, allocate surplus labour, respond to various kinds of market failures, and apply coping strategies. The Agricultural Household Model provides a theoretical rationale for income diversification in that rural households aim at maximising their utility. There are several elements involved, such as agricultural production for their own consumption and markets, leisure activities and income from non-farm sources. The aim of the present study is to enhance understanding of the processes of rural income generation and diversification in eastern Zambia. Specifically, it explores the relationship between household characteristics, asset endowments and income-generation patterns. According to the sustainable- rural-livelihoods framework, the assets a household possesses shape its capacity to seize new economic opportunities. The study is based on two surveys conducted among rural smallholder households in four districts of Eastern Province in Zambia in 1985/86 and 2003. Sixty-seven of the interviewed households were present in both surveys and this panel allows comparison between the two points of time. The initial descriptive analysis is complemented with an econometric analysis of the relationships between household assets and income sources. The results show that, on average, 30 per cent of the households income originated from sources outside their own agriculture. There was a slight increase in the proportion of non-farm income from 1985/86 to 2003, but total income clearly declined mainly on account of diminishing crop income. The land area the household was able to cultivate, which is often dependent on the available labour, was the most significant factor affecting both the household-income level and the diversification patterns. Diversification was, in most cases, a coping strategy rather than a voluntary choice. Measured as income/capita/day, all households were below the poverty line in 2003. The agricultural reforms in Zambia, combined with other trends such as changes in rainfall pattern, the worsening livestock situation and the incidence of human disease, had a negative impact on agricultural productivity and income between 1985/86 and 2003. Sources of non-farm income were closely linked to agriculture either upstream or downstream and the income they generated was not enough to compensate for the decline of agricultural income. Household assets and characteristics had a smaller impact on diversification patterns than expected, which could reflect the lack of opportunities in the remote rural environment.

Intensity, productivity and efficiency in agriculture in Finland and implications for N and P fertiliser management

The purpose of this study was to evaluate intensity, productivity and efficiency in agriculture in Finland and show implications for N and P fertiliser management. Environmental concerns relating to agricultural production have been and still are focused on arguments about policies that affect agriculture. These policies constrain production while demand for agricultural products such as food, fibre and energy continuously increase. Therefore the importance of increasing productivity is a great challenge to agriculture. Over the last decades producers have experienced several large changes in the production environment such as the policy reform when Finland joined the EU 1995. Other and market changes occurred with the further EU enlargement with neighbouring countries in 2005 and with the decoupling of supports over the 2006-2007 period. Decreasing prices a decreased number of farmers and decreased profitability in agricultural production have resulted from these changes and constraints and of technological development. It is known that the accession to the EU 1995 would herald changes in agriculture. Especially of interest was how the sudden changes in prices of commodities on especially those of cereals, decreased by 60%, would influence agricultural production. The knowledge of properties of the production function increased in importance as a consequence of price changes. A research on the economic instruments to regulate productions was carried out and combined with earlier studies in paper V. In paper I the objective was to compare two different technologies, the conventional farming and the organic farming, determine differences in productivity and technical efficiency. In addition input specific or environmental efficiencies were analysed. The heterogeneity of agricultural soils and its implications were analysed in article II. In study III the determinants of technical inefficiency were analysed. The aspects and possible effects of the instability in policies due to a partial decoupling of production factors and products were studied in paper IV. Consequently connection between technical efficiency based on the turnover and the sales return was analysed in this study. Simple economic instruments such as fertiliser taxes have a direct effect on fertiliser consumption and indirectly increase the value of organic fertilisers. However, fertiliser taxes, do not fully address the N and P management problems adequately and are therefore not suitable for nutrient management improvements in general. Productivity of organic farms is lower on average than conventional farms and the difference increases when looking at selling returns only. The organic sector needs more research and development on productivity. Livestock density in organic farming increases productivity, however, there is an upper limit to livestock densities on organic farms and therefore nutrient on organic farms are also limited. Soil factors affects phosphorous and nitrogen efficiency. Soils like sand and silt have lower input specific overall efficiency for nutrients N and P. Special attention is needed for the management on these soils. Clay soils and soils with moderate clay content have higher efficiency. Soil heterogeneity is cause for an unavoidable inefficiency in agriculture.

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Genetic diversity of subgroup 1 ilarviruses from eastern Australia

This is the first report of the genetic diversity within ilarvirus subgroup 1 from eastern Australia. It supports the separation of tobacco streak virus (TSV) strains from parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus) and crownbeard (Verbescina encelioides) based on serology and host specificity. It has confirmed one previously described strain of TSV as a member of the species Strawberry necrotic shock virus and another as a new subgroup 1 ilarvirus, ageratum latent virus (AgLV), from Ageratum houstonianum. A multiplex RT-PCR showed that the genetically distinct strains of TSV and AgLV were commonly found in symptomless infections in virus-specific alternative weed hosts growing over a wide geographical range in eastern Australia. TSV has been one of the most damaging viruses in Australian oilseed and pulse crops in recent years, and this study has provided the taxonomic knowledge essential for the development of control programs for these viruses. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Wien.

Elderly Middle Eastern Man Observing a Torah Scroll

Digital image

Elderly Middle Eastern Man Observing a Torah Scroll

Digital image

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.

Organic contaminants - occurrence and biological effects in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea was studied with respect to selected organic contaminants and their ecotoxicology. The research consisted of analyses of total hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, bile metabolites, hepatic ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). The contaminants were measured from various matrices, such as seawater, sediment and biota. The methods of analysis were evaluated and refined to comparability of the results. Polyaromatic hydrocarbons, originating from petroleum, are known to be among the most harmful substances to the marine environment. In Baltic subsurface water, seasonal dependence of the total hydrocarbon concentrations (THCs) was seen. Although concentrations of parent polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment surface varied between 64 and 5161 ug kg-1 (dw), concentrations above 860 ug kg-1 (dw) were found in all the studied sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. Concentrations commonly considered to substantially increase the risk of liver disease and reproductive impairment in fish, as well as potential effects on growth (above 1000 ug kg-1 dw), were found in all the studied sub-basins of the Baltic Sea except Kattegat. Thus, considerable pollution in sediments was indicated. In bivalves, the sums of 12 PAHs varied on a wet weight basis between 44 and 298 ug kg-1 (ww). The predominant PAHs were high molecular weight and the PAH profiles of M. balthica differed from those found in sediment from the same area. The PAHs were both pyrolytic and petrogenic in origin, and a contribution from diesel engines was found, which indicates pollution of the Baltic Sea, most likely caused by the steadily increasing shipping in the area. The HPLC methods developed for hepatic EROD activity and bile metabolite measurements proved to be fast and suitable for the study of biological effects. A mixed function oxygenase enzyme system in Baltic Sea perch collected from the Gulf of Finland was induced slightly: EROD activity in perch varied from 0.30 14 pmol min-1 mg-1 protein. This range can be considered to be comparable to background values. Recent PAH exposure was also indicated by enhanced levels (213 and 1149 ug kg-1) of the bile metabolite 1-hydroxypyrene. No correlation was indicated between hepatic EROD activity and concentration of 1-hydroxypyrene in bile. PCBs and OCPs were observed in Baltic Sea sediment, bivalves and herring. Sums of seven CBs in surface sediment (0 5 cm) ranged from 0.04 to 6.2 ug kg-1 (dw) and sums of three DDTs from 0.13 to 5.0 ug kg-1 (dw). The highest levels of contaminants were found in the most eastern area of the Gulf of Finland where the highest total carbon and nitrogen content was found and where the lowest percentage proportion of p,p -DDT was found. The highest concentrations of CBs and the lowest concentration of DDTs were found in M. balthica from the Gulf of Finland. The highest levels of DDTs were found in M. balthica from the Hanö Bight, which is the outer part of the Bornholm Basin close to the Swedish mainland. In bivalves, the sums of seven CBs were 72 108 ug kg-1 (lw) and the sums of three DDTs were 66 139 ug kg-1 (lw). Results from temporal trend monitoring showed, that during the period 1985 2002, the concentrations of seven CBs in two-year-old female Baltic herring were clearly decreased, from 9 16 to 2 6 ug kg-1 (ww) in the northern Baltic Sea. At the same time, concentrations of three DDTs declined from 8 15 to 1 5 ug kg-1 (ww). The total concentration of the fat-soluble CBs and DDTs in Baltic herring muscle was shown to be age-dependent; the average concentrations in ten-year-old Baltic herring were three to five-fold higher than in two-year-old herring. In Baltic herring and bivalves, as well as in surface sediments, CB 138 and CB153 were predominant among CBs, whereas among DDTs p,p'-DDD predominated in sediment and p,p'-DDE in bivalves and Baltic herring muscle. Baltic Sea sediments are potential sources of contaminants that may become available for bioaccumulation. Based on ecotoxicological assessment criteria, cause for concern regarding CBs in sediments was indicated for the Gulf of Finland and the northern Baltic Proper, and for the northern Baltic Sea regarding CBs in Baltic herring more than two years old. Statistical classification of selected organic contaminants indicated high-level contamination for p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDE, total DDTs, HCB, CB118 and CB153 in muscle of Baltic herring in age groups two to ten years; in contrast, concentrations of a-HCH and g-HCH were found to be moderate. The concentrations of DDTs and CBs in bivalves is sufficient to cause biological effects, and demonstrates that long-term biological effects are still possible in the case of DDTs in the Hanö Bight.

Is stocking barramundi (Lates calcarifer) in north-eastern Queensland a threat to aquatic biodiversity?

The stocking of predators can have significant consequences on recipient aquatic ecosystems. We investigated some potential ecological impacts of stocking a predatory fish (Lates calcarifer) into a coastal river and a large impoundment in north-eastern Australia. L. calcarifer was mostly found in slower-moving, larger reaches of the river or in the main body of the impoundment where there was abundant suitable habitat. In the tidally influenced freshwater reaches of the coastal river, L. calcarifer predominately consumed aytid and palaemonid shrimp that were associated with local macrophyte beds or littoral grasses. In this area the diets of juvenile stocked and wild L. calcarifer were similar and stocked fish displayed a high degree of site fidelity. Further upstream in the river, away from tidal influence, and in the impoundment, fish were the main prey item. Cannibalism was uncommon and we suggest that, at the current stocking densities, there was little dietary evidence of predatory impacts from L. calcarifer on species of conservation concern. We caution against introducing novel predatory species such as L. calcarifer in or near areas that are outside their natural range and are known to support rare, threatened or endangered species.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.