An extension of an over-dispersion test for count data

While over-dispersion in capture–recapture studies is well known to lead to poor estimation of population size, current diagnostic tools to detect the presence of heterogeneity have not been specifically developed for capture–recapture studies. To address this, a simple and efficient method of testing for over-dispersion in zero-truncated count data is developed and evaluated. The proposed method generalizes an over-dispersion test previously suggested for un-truncated count data and may also be used for testing residual over-dispersion in zero-inflation data. Simulations suggest that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is standard normal and that this approximation is also reasonable for small sample sizes. The method is also shown to be more efficient than an existing test for over-dispersion adapted for the capture–recapture setting. Studies with zero-truncated and zero-inflated count data are used to illustrate the test procedures.

Planning rigid body motions using elastic curves

This paper tackles the problem of computing smooth, optimal trajectories on the Euclidean group of motions SE(3). The problem is formulated as an optimal control problem where the cost function to be minimized is equal to the integral of the classical curvature squared. This problem is analogous to the elastic problem from differential geometry and thus the resulting rigid body motions will trace elastic curves. An application of the Maximum Principle to this optimal control problem shifts the emphasis to the language of symplectic geometry and to the associated Hamiltonian formalism. This results in a system of first order differential equations that yield coordinate free necessary conditions for optimality for these curves. From these necessary conditions we identify an integrable case and these particular set of curves are solved analytically. These analytic solutions provide interpolating curves between an initial given position and orientation and a desired position and orientation that would be useful in motion planning for systems such as robotic manipulators and autonomous-oriented vehicles.

Finding the point on Bezier Curves with the normal vector passing an external point

Two algorithms for finding the point on non-rational/rational Bezier curves of which the normal vector passes through a given external point are presented. The algorithms are based on Bezier curves generation algorithms of de Casteljau's algorithm for non-rational Bezier curve or Farin's recursion for rational Bezier curve, respectively. Orthogonal projections from the external point are used to guide the directional search used in the proposed iterative algorithms. Using Lyapunov's method, it is shown that each algorithm is able to converge to a local minimum for each case of non-rational/rational Bezier curves. It is also shown that on convergence the distance between the point on curves to the external point reaches a local minimum for both approaches. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Urban tracer dispersion experiment in London (DAPPLE) 2003: field study and comparison with empirical prediction

The DAPPLE (Dispersion of Air Pollutants and their Penetration into the Local Environment) project seeks to characterise near-field urban atmospheric dispersion using a multidisciplinary approach. In this paper we report on the first tracer dispersion experiment carried out in May 2003. Results of concurrent meteorological measurements are presented. Variations of receptor tracer concentration with time are presented. Meteorological observations suggest that in-street channelling and flow-switching at intersections take place. A comparison between roof top and surface measurements suggest that rapid vertical mixing occurs, and a comparison between a simple dispersion model and maximum concentrations observed are presented

Urban tracer dispersion experiments during the second DAPPLE field campaign in London 2004

As part of the DAPPLE programme two large scale urban tracer experiments using multiple simultaneous releases of cyclic perfluoroalkanes from fixed location point sources was performed. The receptor concentrations along with relevant meteorological parameters measured are compared with a three screening dispersion models in order to best predict the decay of pollution sources with respect to distance. It is shown here that the simple dispersion models tested here can provide a reasonable upper bound estimate of the maximum concentrations measured with an empirical model derived from field observations and wind tunnel studies providing the best estimate. An indoor receptor was also used to assess indoor concentrations and their pertinence to commonly used evacuation procedures.

Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds

During April-May 2010 volcanic ash clouds from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano reached Europe causing an unprecedented disruption of the EUR/NAT region airspace. Civil aviation authorities banned all flight operations because of the threat posed by volcanic ash to modern turbine aircraft. New quantitative airborne ash mass concentration thresholds, still under discussion, were adopted for discerning regions contaminated by ash. This has implications for ash dispersal models routinely used to forecast the evolution of ash clouds. In this new context, quantitative model validation and assessment of the accuracies of current state-of-the-art models is of paramount importance. The passage of volcanic ash clouds over central Europe, a territory hosting a dense network of meteorological and air quality observatories, generated a quantity of observations unusual for volcanic clouds. From the ground, the cloud was observed by aerosol lidars, lidar ceilometers, sun photometers, other remote-sensing instru- ments and in-situ collectors. From the air, sondes and multiple aircraft measurements also took extremely valuable in-situ and remote-sensing measurements. These measurements constitute an excellent database for model validation. Here we validate the FALL3D ash dispersal model by comparing model results with ground and airplane-based measurements obtained during the initial 14e23 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive phase. We run the model at high spatial resolution using as input hourly- averaged observed heights of the eruption column and the total grain size distribution reconstructed from field observations. Model results are then compared against remote ground-based and in-situ aircraft-based measurements, including lidar ceilometers from the German Meteorological Service, aerosol lidars and sun photometers from EARLINET and AERONET networks, and flight missions of the German DLR Falcon aircraft. We find good quantitative agreement, with an error similar to the spread in the observations (however depending on the method used to estimate mass eruption rate) for both airborne and ground mass concentration. Such verification results help us understand and constrain the accuracy and reliability of ash transport models and it is of enormous relevance for designing future operational mitigation strategies at Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers.

The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.