Does ‘better’ discounting lead to ‘worse’ outcomes in long-run decisions? The dilemma of hyperbolic discounting

The shortcomings of conventional discounting, especially in the context of long-run environmental problems, have been extensively discussed in the literature. Recently, hyperbolic discounting, i. e. discounting at declining instead of constant discount rates, has attracted a lot of interest among both scientists and politicians. Although there are compelling arguments for employing hyperbolic discounting, there are also pitfalls, which have to be pointed out. In this paper I show that the problem of time-inconsistency, an inherent characteristics of hyperbolic discounting, leads to a potential clash between economic efficiency and intergenerational equity. As an example, I refer to the weak progress in the controlling of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto protocol. As the problem of time-inconsistency cannot be solved on economic grounds alone, there is a need for an intergenerational moral commitment.

Risk adjustment in aging societies

Background In Switzerland, age is the predominant driver of solidarity transfers in risk adjustment (RA). Concerns have been voiced regarding growing imbalances in cost sharing between young and old insured due to demographic changes (larger fraction of elderly >65 years and rise in average age). Particularly young adults aged 19–25 with limited incomes have to shoulder increasing solidarity burdens. Between 1996 and 2011, monthly intergenerational solidarity payments for young adults have doubled from CHF 87 to CHF 182, which corresponds to the highest absolute transfer increase of all age groups. Results By constructing models for age-specific RA growth and for calculating the lifetime sum of RA transfers we investigated the causes and consequences of demographic changes on RA payments. The models suggest that the main driver for RA increases in the past was below average health care expenditure (HCE) growth in young adults, which was only half as high (average 2% per year) compared with older adults (average 4% per year). Shifts in age group distributions were only accountable for 2% of the CHF 95 rise in RA payments. Despite rising risk adjustment debts for young insured the balance of lifetime transfers remains positive as long as HCE growth rates are greater than the discount rate used in this model (3%). Moreover, the life-cycle model predicts that the lifetime rate of return on RA payments may even be further increased by demographic changes. Nevertheless, continued growth of RA contributions may overwhelm vulnerable age groups such as young adults. We therefore propose methods to limit the burden of social health insurance for specific age groups (e.g. young adults in Switzerland) by capping solidarity payments. Conclusions Taken together, our mathematical modelling framework helps to gain a better understanding of how demographic changes interact with risk adjustment and how redistribution of funds between age groups can be controlled without inducing further selection incentives. Those methods can help to construct more equitable systems of health financing in light of population aging.

Outcomes associated with chemotherapy in elderly patients with early stage operable breast cancer

Background. Various clinical trials have proved the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy in women with breast cancer. Chemotherapy efficacy and guidelines for its use differ by stage of tumor and age of the patient with no clear recommendations for patients aged 70 and above. Objective. To examine the clinical and economic outcomes associated with chemotherapy use in and to examine the disparities in treatment and survival in elderly patients with early stage operable breast cancer by age and axillary node status. Methods. We studied a cohort of 23,110 node positive and 31,572 node negative women aged 65 and over diagnosed with incident American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I, II or IIIa breast cancer between January 1, 1991 and December 31, 2002 using SEER-Medicare data. Total patient costs were estimated using the phase of care approach and adjusted cost estimates were obtained from regression analysis using a 3% discount rate. Cox proportional hazard ratio of mortality was used to determine the effectiveness of chemotherapy. Propensity score approach was also used to minimize the bias associated with receipt of chemotherapy. To assess disparity in treatment, multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the relative odds of receiving surgery, chemotherapy and radiation after BCS for African Americans compared to Whites. Results. Regression adjusted cost estimates for all node positive patients receiving chemotherapy was approximately $2,300 and was significantly higher (p<0.05) than for patients not receiving chemotherapy. Mortality was significantly lower in node positive and node negative women aged 65-74 years receiving chemotherapy. There was a significant difference between African American and White women in receiving BCS and radiation after BCS; however this difference was explained by patient demographics, tumor characteristics and socioeconomic status (SES). African American node positive women were 21% less likely to receive chemotherapy than White women (OR, 0.79; CI, 0.68-0.92) in multivariate analysis. Conclusion. Chemotherapy is associated with increased survival in patients aged 65-74 and total costs attributable to chemotherapy differ by phase and age of the patient. Underutilization of systemic adjuvant chemotherapy in African American women requires attention and may serve as potential areas for appropriate intervention.^

A review of economic analysis in the vaccination program; decision making and governance: Adivisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) develops written recommendations for the routine administration of vaccines to children and adults in the U.S. civilian population. The ACIP is the only entity in the federal government that makes such recommendations. ACIP elaborates on selection of its members and rules out concerns regarding its integrity, but fails to provide information about the importance of economic analysis in vaccine selection. ACIP recommendations can have large health and economic consequences. Emphasis on economic evaluation in health is a likely response to severe pressures of the federal and state health budget. This study describes the economic aspects considered by the ACIP while sanctioning a vaccine, and reviews the economic evaluations (our economic data) provided for vaccine deliberations. A five year study period from 2004 to 2009 is adopted. Publicly available data from ACIP web database is used. Drummond et al. (2005) checklist serves as a guide to assess the quality of economic evaluations presented. Drummond et al.'s checklist is a comprehensive hence it is unrealistic to expect every ACIP deliberation to meet all of their criteria. For practical purposes we have selected seven criteria that we judge to be significant criteria provided by Drummond et al. Twenty-four data points were obtained in a five year period. Our results show that out of the total twenty-four data point‘s (economic evaluations) only five data points received a score of six; that is six items on the list of seven were met. None of the data points received a perfect score of seven. Seven of the twenty-four data points received a score of five. A minimum of a two score was received by only one of the economic analyses. The type of economic evaluation along with the model criteria and ICER/QALY criteria met at 0.875 (87.5%). These three criteria were met at the highest rate among the seven criteria studied. Our study findings demonstrate that the perspective criteria met at 0.583 (58.3%) followed by source and sensitivity analysis criteria both tied at 0.541 (54.1%). The discount factor was met at 0.250 (25.0%).^ Economic analysis is not a novel concept to the ACIP. It has been practiced and presented at these meetings on a regular basis for more than five years. ACIP‘s stated goal is to utilize good quality epidemiologic, clinical and economic analyses to help policy makers choose among alternatives presented and thus achieve a better informed decision. As seen in our study the economic analyses over the years are inconsistent. The large variability coupled with lack of a standardized format may compromise the utility of the economic information for decision-making. While making recommendations, the ACIP takes into account all available information about a vaccine. Thus it is vital that standardized high quality economic information is provided at the ACIP meetings. Our study may provide a call for the ACIP to further investigate deficiencies within the system and thereby to improve economic evaluation data presented. ^

Policy analysis of Texas Senate Bill 532 and the regulation of nurse practitioners in the convenience care model

Background. Retail clinics, also called convenience care clinics, have become a rapidly growing trend since their initial development in 2000. These clinics are coupled within a larger retail operation and are generally located in "big-box" discount stores such as Wal-mart or Target, grocery stores such as Publix or H-E-B, or in retail pharmacies such as CVS or Walgreen's (Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, 2008). Care is typically provided by nurse practitioners. Research indicates that this new health care delivery system reduces cost, raises quality, and provides a means of access to the uninsured population (e.g., Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, 2008; Convenient Care Association, 2008a, 2008b, 2008c; Hansen-Turton, Miller, Nash, Ryan, Counts, 2007; Salinsky, 2009; Scott, 2006; Ahmed & Fincham, 2010). Some healthcare analysts even suggest that retail clinics offer a feasible solution to the shortage of primary care physicians facing the nation (AHRQ Health Care Innovations Exchange, 2010). ^ The development and performance of retail clinics is heavily dependent upon individual state policies regulating NPs. Texas currently has one of the most highly regulated practice environments for NPs (Stout & Elton, 2007; Hammonds, 2008). In September 2009, Texas passed Senate Bill 532 addressing the scope of practice of nurse practitioners in the convenience care model. In comparison to other states, this law still heavily regulates nurse practitioners. However, little research has been conducted to evaluate the impact of state laws regulating nurse practitioners on the development and performance of retail clinics. ^ Objectives. (1). To describe the potential impact that SB 532 has on retail clinic performance. (2). To discuss the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of the convenience care model. (3). To describe possible alternatives to Texas' nurse practitioner scope of practice guidelines as delineated in Texas Senate Bill 532. (4). To describe the type of nurse practitioner state regulation (i.e. independent, light, moderate, or heavy) that best promotes the convenience care model. ^ Methods. State regulations governing nurse practitioners can be characterized as independent, light, moderate, and heavy. Four state NP regulatory types and retail clinic performance were compared and contrasted to that of Texas regulations using Dunn and Aday's theoretical models for conducting policy analysis and evaluating healthcare systems. Criteria for measurement included effectiveness, efficiency, and equity. Comparison states were Arizona (Independent), Minnesota (Light), Massachusetts (Moderate), and Florida (Heavy). ^ Results. A comparative states analysis of Texas SB 532 and alternative NP scope of practice guidelines among the four states: Arizona, Florida, Massachusetts, and Minnesota, indicated that SB 532 has minimal potential to affect the shortage of primary care providers in the state. Although SB 532 may increase the number of NPs a physician may supervise, NPs are still heavily restricted in their scope of practice and limited in their ability to act as primary care providers. Arizona's example of independent NP practice provided the best alternative to affect the shortage of PCPs in Texas as evidenced by a lower uninsured rate and less ED visits per 1,000 population. A survey of comparison states suggests that retail clinics thrive in states that more heavily restrict NP scope of practice as opposed to those that are more permissive, with the exception of Arizona. An analysis of effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of the convenience care model indicates that retail clinics perform well in the areas of effectiveness and efficiency; but, fall short in the area of equity. ^ Conclusion. Texas Senate 532 represents an incremental step towards addressing the problem of a shortage of PCPs in the state. A comparative policy analysis of the other four states with varying degrees of NP scope of practice indicate that a more aggressive policy allowing for independent NP practice will be needed to achieve positive changes in health outcomes. Retail clinics pose a temporary solution to the shortage of PCPs and will need to expand their locations to poorer regions and incorporate some chronic care to obtain measurable health outcomes. ^

Revisiting the determinants of unit values

This paper studies the issue of how traded quantities affect trade prices, which has been relatively unexplored in the trade literature. By reproducing previous literatures' regressions which are based on the general equilibrium trade theories, incorporating the role of traded quantities, this paper shows a possibility of prevalence of the second degree price discrimination (quantity discount) in international trade, rather than the pricing behaviour of the general equilibrium theories.

Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia

Microinsurance is widely considered an important tool for sustainable poverty reduction, especially in the face of increasing climate risk. Although index-based microinsurance, which should be free from the classical incentive problems, has attracted considerable attention, uptake rates have generally been weak in low-income rural communities. We explore the purchase patterns of index-based livestock insurance in southern Ethiopia, focusing in particular on the role of accurate product comprehension and price, including the prospective impact of temporary discount coupons on subsequent period demand due to price anchoring effects. We find that randomly distributed learning kits contribute to improving subjects' knowledge of the products; however, we do not find strong evidence that the improved knowledge per se induces greater uptake. We also find that reduced price due to randomly distributed discount coupons has an immediate, positive impact on uptake, without dampening subsequent period demand due to reference-dependence associated with price anchoring effects.

A note on three factor model of discounting

In Montiel Olea and Strzalecki (2014), authors have axiomatically developed an algorithm to infer the parameters of beta-delta model of cognitive bias (present and future biases). While this is extremely useful, it allows the implied beta to become very large when the response is impatient in the future choices relative to present choices, i.e., when there is a strong future bias. I modify the model to further exponentiate the functional form to get more reasonable beta values.

Después de Einstein: una arquitectura para una teoría

En 1905, aparecen en la revista "Annalen der physik" tres artículos que revolucionarán las ciencias físicas y pondrán en jaque los asentados conceptos newtonianos de Espacio y Tiempo. La formulación de la Teoría de la Relatividad por Albert Einstein pone en crisis el valor absoluto de estos conceptos, y permite proponer nuevas reflexiones a propósito de su concepción dentro del campo de la física. Esta revolución ¿podría extrapolarse al campo de la arquitectura, donde Espacio y Tiempo tienen un papel protagonista? Hay que entender la complejidad del hecho arquitectónico y las innumerables variables que participan de su definición. Se estudia en esta Tesis Doctoral un aspecto muy concreto: cómo un paradigma (la Teoría de la Relatividad) puede intervenir y modificar, o no, la Arquitectura. Se plantea para ello ir al origen; desentrañar el momento de interacción entre la Teoría de la Relatividad y la Teoría de la Arquitectura, que permita determinar si aquella influyó sobre ésta en los escritos teóricos de las vanguardias aplicados a la Arquitectura. “Después de Einstein. Una arquitectura para una teoría” buscará los puntos de conexión de la Teoría de la Relatividad con la teoría arquitectónica de las vanguardias de principio del siglo XX, su influencia, la contaminación entre una y otra, con posibles resultados arquitectónicos a partir de esta interacción, capaz de definir nuevos argumentos formales para un nuevo lenguaje enArquitectura. Annalen der physik Después de Einstein. Una arquitectura para una teoría Para ello la Tesis se estructura en cuatro capítulos. El primero expone el ámbito geográfico y cronológico donde se desarrolla la Teoría de la Relatividad con la repercusión teórica que tiene para el arte, en función de una nueva definición de espacio vinculado al tiempo, como evento que se desarrolla en un ámbito cuatridimensional; la indeterminación de las medidas de espacio y de las medidas de tiempo, y la importancia de entender la materia como energía. El segundo capítulo estudia los movimientos de vanguardia coetáneos a la eclosión de la Relatividad, enmarcados en su ámbito geográfico más próximo. El cubismo se muestra como movimiento que participa ocasionalmente de las matemáticas y la geometría, bajo el influjo del científico Henri Poincaré y las geometrías no euclidianas. El futurismo indaga en los avances de la ciencia desde una cierta lejanía, cierta falta de rigor o profundidad científica para extraer las leyes de su nuevo idealismo plástico constructivo, definiendo e interpretando su Universo a partir de los avances de la ciencia, en respuesta a la crisis del espacio y del tiempo newtonianos. El lenguaje científico se encuentra presente en conceptos como "simultaneidad" (Boccioni), "expansión esférica de la luz en el espacio" (Severini y Carrá), "cuatridimensionalidad", "espacio-tiempo", "aire-luz-fuerza", "materia y energía" que paralelamente conforman el cuerpo operacional de la teoría de Einstein. Si bien no es posible atribuir a la Teoría de la Relatividad un papel protagonista como referente para el pensamiento artístico, en 1936, con la aparición del manifiesto Dimensionista, se atribuyen explícitamente a las teorías de Einstein las nuevas ideas de espacio-tiempo del espíritu europeo seguido por cubistas y futuristas. El tercer capítulo describe cómo la Teoría de la Relatividad llegó a ser fuente de inspiración para la Teoría de la Arquitectura. Estructurado en tres subcapítulos, se estudia el autor principal que aportó para la Arquitectura conceptos e ideas extrapoladas de la Teoría de la Relatividad después de su estudio e interpretación (Van Doesburg), dónde se produjeron las influencias y puntos de contacto (Lissitzky, Eggeling, Moholy-Nagy) y cómo fueron difundidas a través de la arquitectura (Einsteinturm de Mendelsohn) y de las revistas especializadas. El cuarto capítulo extrae las conclusiones del estudio realizado en esta Tesis, que bien pudiera resumir MoholyNagy en su texto "Vision inmotion" (1946) al comentar: "Ya que el "espacio-tiempo" puede ser un término engañoso, tiene que hacerse especialmente hincapié en que los problemas de espacio-tiempo en el arte no están necesariamente basados en la Teoría de la Relatividad de Einstein. Esto no tiene intención de descartar la relevancia de su teoría para las artes. Pero los artistas y los laicos rara vez tienen el conocimiento matemático para visualizar en fórmulas científicas las analogías con su propio trabajo. La terminología de Einstein del "espacio-tiempo" y la "relatividad" ha sido absorbida por nuestro lenguaje diario." ABSTRACT. "AFTER EINSTEIN:ANARCHITECTUREFORATHEORY." In 1905, three articles were published in the journal "Annalen der Physik ". They revolutionized physical sciences and threw into crisis the newtonian concepts of Space and Time. The formulation of the Theory of Relativity by Albert Einstein put a strain on the absolute value of these concepts, and proposed new reflections about them in the field of Physics. Could this revolution be extrapolated to the field of Architecture, where Space and Time have a main role? It is necessary to understand the complexity of architecture and the countless variables involved in its definition. For this reason, in this PhD. Thesis, we study a specific aspect: how a paradigm (Theory of Relativity) can intervene and modify -or not- Architecture. It is proposed to go back to the origin; to unravel the moment in which the interaction between the Theory of Relativity and the Theory of Architecture takes place, to determine whether the Theory of Relativity influenced on the theoretical avant-garde writings applied to Architecture. "After Einstein.An architecture for a theory " will search the connection points between the Theory of Relativity and architectural avant-garde theory of the early twentieth century, the influence and contamination between them, giving rise to new architectures that define new formal arguments for a new architectural language. Annalen der Physik This thesis is divided into four chapters. The first one describes the geographical and chronological scope in which the Theory of Relativity is developed showing its theoretical implications in the field of art, according to a new definition of Space linked to Time, as an event that takes place in a fourdimensional space; the indetermination of the measurement of space and time, and the importance of understanding "matter" as "energy". The second chapter examines the avant-garde movements contemporary to the theory of relativity. Cubism is shown as an artist movement that occasionally participates in mathematics and geometry, under the influence of Henri Poincaré and non-Euclidean geometries. Futurism explores the advances of science at a certain distance, with lack of scientific rigor to extract the laws of their new plastic constructive idealism. Scientific language is present in concepts like "simultaneity" (Boccioni), "expanding light in space" (Severini and Carra), "four-dimensional space", "space-time", "light-air-force," "matter and energy" similar to the operational concepts of Einstein´s theory. While it is not possible to attribute a leading role to the Theory of Relativity, as a benchmark for artistic laws, in 1936, with the publication of the Dimensionist manifest, the new ideas of space-time followed by cubist and futurist were attributed to the Einstein's theory. The third chapter describes how the Theory of Relativity became an inspiration for the architectural theory. Structured into three subsections, we study the main author who studied the theory of relativity and ,as a consequence, contributed with some concepts and ideas to the theory of architecture (Van Doesburg), where influences and contact points took place (Lissitzky, Eggeling, Moholy-Nagy) and how were disseminated throughArchitecture (Einsteinturm, by Mendelsohn) and journals. The fourth chapter draws the conclusions of this PhD. Thesis, which could be well summarized by Moholy Nagy in his text "Vision in Motion" (1946): vi Since "space-time" can be a misleading term, it especially has to be emphasized that the space-time problems in the arts are not necessarily based upon Einstein´s Theory of Relativity. This is not meant to discount the relevance of his theory to the arts. But artists and laymen seldom have the mathematical knowledge to visualize in scientific formulae the analogies to their own work. Einstein's terminology of "space-time" and "relativity" has been absorbed by our daily language.

Sustainability of irrigated farming systems in a Tunisian region: A recursive stochastic programming analysis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sustainability of farm irrigation systems in the Cébalat district in northern Tunisia. It addressed the challenging topic of sustainable agriculture through a bio-economic approach linking a biophysical model to an economic optimisation model. A crop growth simulation model (CropSyst) was used to build a database to determine the relationships between agricultural practices, crop yields and environmental effects (salt accumulation in soil and leaching of nitrates) in a context of high climatic variability. The database was then fed into a recursive stochastic model set for a 10-year plan that allowed analysing the effects of cropping patterns on farm income, salt accumulation and nitrate leaching. We assumed that the long-term sustainability of soil productivity might be in conflict with farm profitability in the short-term. Assuming a discount rate of 10% (for the base scenario), the model closely reproduced the current system and allowed to predict the degradation of soil quality due to long-term salt accumulation. The results showed that there was more accumulation of salt in the soil for the base scenario than for the alternative scenario (discount rate of 0%). This result was induced by applying a higher quantity of water per hectare for the alternative as compared to a base scenario. The results also showed that nitrogen leaching is very low for the two discount rates and all climate scenarios. In conclusion, the results show that the difference in farm income between the alternative and base scenarios increases over time to attain 45% after 10 years.

A novel monetary incentive for commercial P2P streaming

Today P2P faces two important challenges: design of mechanisms to encourage users’ collaboration in multimedia live streaming services; design of reliable algorithms with QoS provision, to encourage multimedia providers employ the P2P topology in commercial streaming services. We believe that these two challenges are tightly-related and there is much to be done with respect. This paper proposes a novel monetary incentive for P2P multimedia streaming. The incentive model classifies the users in groups according to the perceived video quality. We apply the model to a streaming system’s billing model in order to evaluate its feasibility and visualize its quantitative effect on the users’ motivation and the provider’s profit. We conclude that monetary incentive can boost up users’ cooperation, loyalty and enhance the overall system integrity and performance. Moreover the model defines the constraints for the provider’s cost and profit when the system is leveraged on the cloud. Considering those constraints, a multimedia content provider can adapt the billing model of his streaming service and achieve desirable discount-profit trade-off. This will moreover contribute to better promotion of the service, across the users on the Internet.

Integration of congestion pricing and intertemporal preference rate in social welfare function

Assessing social benefits in transport policy implementation has been studied by many researchers using theoretical or empirical measures. However, few of them measure social benefit using different discount rates including the inter-temporal preferences rate of users, the private investment discount rate and the inter-temporal preferences rate of the government. In general, the social discount rate used is the same for all social actors. Therefore, this paper aims to assess a new method by integrating different types of discount rate belonging to different social actors in order to measure the real benefits of each actor in the short, medium and long term. A dynamic simulation is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The method is tested by optimizing a cordon toll scheme in Madrid considering socio- economic efficiency and environmental criteria. Based on the modified social welfare function (WF), the effects on the measure of social benefits are estimated and compared with the classical WF results as well. The results of this research could be a key issue to understanding the relationship between transport system policies and social actors' benefits distribution in a metropolitan context. The results show that the use of more suitable discount rates for each social actor had an effect on the selection and definition of optimal strategy of congestion pricing. The usefulness of the measure of congestion toll declines more quickly overtime.

Integration of congestion pricing and intertemporal preferences rate integration in social welfare function

Many researchers have used theoretical or empirical measures to assess social benefits in transport policy implementation. However, few have measured social benefits by using discount rates, including the intertemporal preference rate of users, the private investment discount rate, and the intertemporal preference rate of the government. In general, the social discount rate used is the same for all social actors. This paper aims to assess a new method by integrating different types of discount rates belonging to different social actors to measure the real benefits of each actor in the short term, medium term, and long term. A dynamic simulation is provided by a strategic land use and transport interaction model. The method was tested by optimizing a cordon toll scheme in Madrid, Spain. Socioeconomic efficiency and environmental criteria were considered. On the basis of the modified social welfare function, the effects on the measure of social benefits were estimated and compared with the classical welfare function measures. The results show that the use of more suitable discount rates for each social actor had an effect on the selection and definition of optimal strategy of congestion pricing. The usefulness of the measure of congestion toll declines more quickly over time. This result could be the key to understanding the relationship between transport system policies and the distribution of social actors? benefits in a metropolitan context.

Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

A Valuation of SAREB, the Spanish “Bad Bank”, Upside Using the Real Options Methodology

This paper develops a model to analyze the upside potential of profitability of the SAREB (“Asset Management Company for Assets Arising from Bank Restructuring”), the Spanish “Bad Bank”. The model is based in the Real Options methodology, that is especially adequate due to the convergence of two elements, (i) depreciated assets with a high upside potential, and (ii) a highly volatile market as it has shown to be the real estate Spanish market. Our results suggest that the SAREB has a higher than expected profitability potentialthat would be dedicated to increase the return to its shareholders, mainly private banks. Consequently we also show that after the financial crisis are emerging two types of banks in Spain, in one hand the losers who are transferring their real estate assets at a deep discount, and in the other hand the winners, capturing the upside potential of those assets as shareholders of SAREB, and consequently consolidating their strength in the Spanish Real Estate Industry. It is worth to mention that Governments should make an effort in properly redistribute the wealth generated by the real Estate industry.