Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The case for “n«all”: Why the Big Data revolution will probably happen differently in the mining sector

Big Data and predictive analytics have received significant attention from the media and academic literature throughout the past few years, and it is likely that these emerging technologies will materially impact the mining sector. This short communication argues, however, that these technological forces will probably unfold differently in the mining industry than they have in many other sectors because of significant differences in the marginal cost of data capture and storage. To this end, we offer a brief overview of what Big Data and predictive analytics are, and explain how they are bringing about changes in a broad range of sectors. We discuss the “N=all” approach to data collection being promoted by many consultants and technology vendors in the marketplace but, by considering the economic and technical realities of data acquisition and storage, we then explain why a “n « all” data collection strategy probably makes more sense for the mining sector. Finally, towards shaping the industry’s policies with regards to technology-related investments in this area, we conclude by putting forward a conceptual model for leveraging Big Data tools and analytical techniques that is a more appropriate fit for the mining sector.

Visions of Past Glory: Nationalism and the Construction of Early Finnish History

The study is an examination of how the distant national past has been conceived and constructed for Finland from the mid-sixteenth century to the Second World War. The author argues that the perception and need of a national 'Golden Age' has undergone several phases during this period, yet the perceived Greatness of the Ancient Finns has been of great importance for the growth and development of the fundamental concepts of Finnish nationalism. It is a question reaching deeper than simply discussing the Kalevala or the Karelianism of the 1890s. Despite early occurrences of most of the topics the image-makers could utilize for the construction of an Ancient Greatness, a truly national proto-history only became a necessity after 1809, when a new conceptual 'Finnishness' was both conceived and brought forth in reality. In this process of nation-building, ethnic myths of origin and descent provided the core of the nationalist cause - the defence of a primordial national character - and within a few decades the antiquarian issue became a standard element of the nationalist public enlightenment. The emerging, archaeologically substantiated, nationhood was more than a scholarly construction: it was a 'politically correct' form of ethnic self-imaging, continuously adapting its message to contemporary society and modern progress. Prehistoric and medieval Finnishness became even more relevant for the intellectual defence of the nation during the period of Russian administrative pressure 1890-1905. With independence the origins of Finnishness were militarized even further, although the 'hot' phase of antiquarian nationalism ended, as many considered the Finnish state reestablished after centuries of 'dependency'. Nevertheless, the distant past of tribal Finnishness and the conceived Golden Age of the Kalevala remained obligating. The decline of public archaeology is quite evident after 1918, even though the national message of the antiquarian pursuits remained present in the history culture of the public. The myths, symbols, images, and constructs of ancient Finnishness had already become embedded in society by the turn of the century, like the patalakki cap, which remains a symbol of Finnishness to this day. The method of approach is one of combining a broad spectrum of previously neglected primary sources, all related to history culture and the subtle banalization of the distant past: school books, postcards, illustrations, festive costumes, drama, satirical magazines, novels, jewellery, and calendars. Tracing the origins of the national myths to their original contexts enables a rather thorough deconstruction of the proto-historical imaginary in this Finnish case study. Considering Anthony D. Smith's idea of ancient 'ethnies' being the basis for nationalist causes, the author considers such an approach in the Finnish case totally misplaced.

Drug discovery approaches utilizing three-dimensional cell culture

Historically, two-dimensional (2D) cell culture has been the preferred method of producing disease models in vitro. Recently, there has been a move away from 2D culture in favor of generating three-dimensional (3D) multicellular structures, which are thought to be more representative of the in vivo environment. This transition has brought with it an influx of technologies capable of producing these structures in various ways. However, it is becoming evident that many of these technologies do not perform well in automated in vitro drug discovery units. We believe that this is a result of their incompatibility with high-throughput screening (HTS). In this study, we review a number of technologies, which are currently available for producing in vitro 3D disease models. We assess their amenability with high-content screening and HTS and highlight our own work in attempting to address many of the practical problems that are hampering the successful deployment of 3D cell systems in mainstream research.

Senataxin controls meiotic silencing through ATR activation and chromatin remodeling

Senataxin, defective in ataxia oculomotor apraxia type 2, protects the genome by facilitating the resolution of RNA–DNA hybrids (R-loops) and other aspects of RNA processing. Disruption of this gene in mice causes failure of meiotic recombination and defective meiotic sex chromosome inactivation, leading to male infertility. Here we provide evidence that the disruption of Setx leads to reduced SUMOylation and disruption of protein localization across the XY body during meiosis. We demonstrate that senataxin and other DNA damage repair proteins, including ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related protein-interacting partner, are SUMOylated, and a marked downregulation of both ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related protein-interacting partner and TopBP1 leading to defective activation and signaling through ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related protein occurs in the absence of senataxin. Furthermore, chromodomain helicase DNA-binding protein 4, a component of the nucleosome remodeling and deacetylase chromatin remodeler that interacts with both ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related protein and senataxin was not recruited efficiently to the XY body, triggering altered histone acetylation and chromatin conformation in Setx−/− pachytene-staged spermatocytes. These results demonstrate that senataxin has a critical role in ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related protein- and chromodomain helicase DNA-binding protein 4-mediated transcriptional silencing and chromatin remodeling during meiosis providing greater insight into its critical role in gene regulation to protect against neurodegeneration.

Bringing nature to schools to promote children’s physical activity

Physical activity (PA) is essential for human health and wellbeing across all age, socioeconomic and ethnic groups. Engagement with the natural world is a new defining criterion for enhancing the benefits of PA particularly for children and young people. Interacting with nature benefits children’s social and emotional wellbeing, develops resilience and reduces the risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes across all population groups. Governments around the world are now recognising the importance of children spending more active time outdoors. However, children’s outdoor activities, free play and nature-related exploration are often structured and supervised by adults due to safety concerns and risks. In this context schools become more accessible and safe options for children to engage in PA outdoors with the presence of nature features. Research on school designs involving young children has revealed that children prefer nature-related features in school environments. Affordances in nature may increase children’s interest in physically active behaviours. Given that present school campuses are designed for operational efficiency and economic reasons there is a need to re-design schools responding to the positive role of nature on human health. If schools were re-designed to incorporate diverse natural features children’s PA and consequent health and wellbeing would likely improve markedly.

Distinct subpopulations of gamma delta T cells are present in normal and tumor-bearing human liver

Gamma delta T cells are thought to mediate immune responses at epithelial surfaces. We have quantified and characterized hepatic and peripheral blood gamma delta T cells from 11 normal and 13 unresolved tumor-bearing human liver specimens. gamma delta T cells are enriched in normal liver (6.6% of T cells) relative to matched blood (0.9%; P = 0.008). The majority express CD4(-)CD8(-) phenotypes and many express CD56 and/or CD161. In vitro, hepatic gamma delta T cells can be induced to kill tumor cell lines and release interferon-gamma, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin-2 and interleukin-4. Analysis of V gamma and V delta chain usage indicated that V delta 3(+) cells are expanded in normal livers (21.2% of gamma delta T cells) compared to blood (0.5%; P = 0.001). Tumor-bearing livers had significant expansions and depletions of gamma delta T cell subsets but normal cytolytic activity. This study identifies novel populations of liver T cells that may play a role in immunity against tumors.

NKT cells from normal and tumor-bearing human livers are phenotypically and functionally distinct from murine NKT cells

A major group of murine NK T (NKT) cells express an invariant Vα14Jα18 TCR α-chain specific for glycolipid Ags presented by CD1d. Murine Vα14Jα18+ account for 30–50% of hepatic T cells and have potent antitumor activities. We have enumerated and characterized their human counterparts, Vα24Vβ11+ NKT cells, freshly isolated from histologically normal and tumor-bearing livers. In contrast to mice, human NKT cells are found in small numbers in healthy liver (0.5% of CD3+ cells) and blood (0.02%). In contrast to those in blood, most hepatic Vα24+ NKT cells express the Vβ11 chain. They include CD4+, CD8+, and CD4−CD8− cells, and many express the NK cell markers CD56, CD161, and/or CD69. Importantly, human hepatic Vα24+ T cells are potent producers of IFN-γ and TNF-α, but not IL-2 or IL-4, when stimulated pharmacologically or with the NKT cell ligand, α-galactosylceramide. Vα24+Vβ11+ cell numbers are reduced in tumor-bearing compared with healthy liver (0.1 vs 0.5%; p < 0.04). However, hepatic cells from cancer patients and healthy donors release similar amounts of IFN-γ in response to α-galactosylceramide. These data indicate that hepatic NKT cell repertoires are phenotypically and functionally distinct in humans and mice. Depletions of hepatic NKT cell subpopulations may underlie the susceptibility to metastatic liver disease.

CD1 expression and CD1-restricted T cell activity in normal and tumour-bearing human liver

CD1d-restricted natural killer T (NKT) cells expressing invariant Valpha14Jalpha18 T cell receptor alpha-chains are abundant in murine liver and are implicated in the control of malignancy, infection and autoimmunity. Invariant NKT cells have potent anti-metastatic effects in mice and phase I clinical trials involving their homologues in humans are ongoing. However, invariant NKT cells are less abundant in human liver ( approximately 0.5% of hepatic T cells) than in murine liver (up to 50%) and it is not known if other hepatic T cells are CD1-restricted. We have examined expression of CD1a, CD1b, CD1c and CD1d mRNA and protein in human liver and evaluated the reactivity of mononuclear cells (MNC) from histologically normal and tumour-bearing human liver specimens against these CD1 isoforms. Messenger RNA for all CD1 isotypes was detectable in all liver samples. CD1c and CD1d were expressed at the protein level by hepatic MNC. CD1d, only, was detectable at the cell surface, but CD1c and CD1d were found at an intracellular location in significant numbers of liver MNC. CD1b was not expressed by MNC from healthy livers but was detectable within MNC in all tumour samples tested. Hepatic T cells exhibited reactivity against C1R cells expressing transfected CD1c and CD1d, but neither CD1a nor CD1b. These cells secreted interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) but not interleukin-4 (IL-4) upon stimulation. In contrast, similar numbers of peripheral T cells released 13- and 16-fold less IFN-gamma in response to CD1c and CD1d, respectively. CD1c and CD1d expression and T cell reactivity were not altered in tumour-bearing liver specimens compared to histologically normal livers. These data suggest that, in addition to invariant CD1d-restricted NKT cells, autoreactive T cells that recognise CD1c and CD1d and release inflammatory cytokines are abundant in human liver.

Diverse populations of T cells with NK cell receptors accumulate in the human intestine in health and in colorectal cancer

T cells expressing NK cell receptors (NKR) display rapid MHC-unrestricted cytotoxicity and potent cytokine secretion and are thought to play roles in immunity against tumors. We have quantified and characterized NKR+ T cells freshly isolated from epithelial and lamina propria layers of duodenum and colon from 16 individuals with no evidence of gastrointestinal disease and from tumor and uninvolved tissue from 19 patients with colorectal cancer. NKR+ T cell subpopulations were differentially distributed in different intestinal compartments, and CD161+ T cells accounted for over one half of T cells at all locations tested. Most intestinal CD161+ T cells expressed alpha beta TCR and either CD4 or CD8. Significant proportions expressed HLA-DR,CD69 and Fas ligand. Upon stimulation in vitro, CD161+ T cells produced IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha but not IL-4. NKT cells expressing the Valpha24Vbeta11 TCR, which recognizes CD1d,were virtually absent from the intestine, but colonic cells produced IFN-gamma in response to the NKT cell agonist ligand alpha-galactosylceramide. NKR+ T cells were not expanded in colonic tumors compared to adjacent uninvolved tissue. The predominance, heterogeneity and differential distribution of NKR+ T cells at different intestinal locations suggests that they are central to intestinal immunity.

Imagination for inclusion: Shared understandings across diverse contexts of educational practice

This chapter explores inclusive education as a social imaginary; that is, a common understanding that has become a global perspective. We trace the roots of inclusive education in early movements for social justice and the development of special education and note that these two domains continue to be seen in the ongoing tensions within the practice of inclusive education. We conclude that although much has been achieved in opening up greater opportunities for all children and young people to participate in and engage with education, there is still much work to be done. Creative imagining, discursive dialogue, and courageous actions in breaking down barriers in schools and communities will strengthen the local and global social imaginary of inclusive education, thus affording even greater opportunities for all children and young people regardless of any categorisation that may have been applied to their differences.

Promotion of a cancer-like phenotype, through chronic exposure to inflammatory cytokines and hypoxia in a bronchial epithelial cell line model

Globally, lung cancer accounts for approximately 20% of all cancer related deaths. Five-year survival is poor and rates have remained unchanged for the past four decades. There is an urgent need to identify markers of lung carcinogenesis and new targets for therapy. Given the recent successes of immune modulators in cancer therapy and the improved understanding of immune evasion by tumours, we sought to determine the carcinogenic impact of chronic TNF-α and IL-1β exposure in a normal bronchial epithelial cell line model. Following three months of culture in a chronic inflammatory environment under conditions of normoxia and hypoxia (0.5% oxygen), normal cells developed a number of key genotypic and phenotypic alterations. Important cellular features such as the proliferative, adhesive and invasive capacity of the normal cells were significantly amplified. In addition, gene expression profiles were altered in pathways associated with apoptosis, angiogenesis and invasion. The data generated in this study provides support that TNF-α, IL-1β and hypoxia promotes a neoplastic phenotype in normal bronchial epithelial cells. In turn these mediators may be of benefit for biomarker and/or immune-therapy target studies. This project provides an important inflammatory in vitro model for further immuno-oncology studies in the lung cancer setting.