Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Co-evolution between sociality and dispersal: The role of synergistic cooperative benefits.

Explaining the evolution of sociality is challenging because social individuals face disadvantages that must be balanced by intrinsic benefits of living in a group. One potential route towards the evolution of sociality may emerge from the avoidance of dispersal, which can be risky in some environments. Although early studies found that local competition may cancel the benefits of cooperation in viscous populations, subsequent studies have identified conditions, such as the presence of kin recognition or specific demographic conditions, under which altruism will still spread. Most of these studies assume that the costs of cooperating outweigh the direct benefits (strong altruism). In nature, however, many organisms gain synergistic benefits from group living, which may counterbalance even costly altruistic behaviours. Here, we use an individual based model to investigate how dispersal and social behaviour co-evolve when social behaviours result in synergistic benefits that counterbalance the relative cost of altruism to a greater extent than assumed in previous models. When the cost of cooperation is high, selection for sociality responds strongly to the cost of dispersal. In particular, cooperation can begin to spread in a population when higher cooperation levels become correlated with lower dispersal tendencies within individuals. In contrast, less costly social behaviours are less sensitive to the cost of dispersal. In line with previous studies, we find that mechanisms of global population control also affect this relationship: when whole patches (groups) go extinct each generation, selection favours a relatively high dispersal propensity, and social behaviours evolve only when they are not very costly. If random individuals within groups experience mortality each generation to maintain a global carrying capacity, on the other hand, social behaviours spread and dispersal is reduced, even when the latter is not costly.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl.

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

On the number of independent cultural traits carried by individuals and populations.

In species subject to individual and social learning, each individual is likely to express a certain number of different cultural traits acquired during its lifetime. If the process of trait innovation and transmission reaches a steady state in the population, the number of different cultural traits carried by an individual converges to some stationary distribution. We call this the trait-number distribution. In this paper, we derive the trait-number distributions for both individuals and populations when cultural traits are independent of each other. Our results suggest that as the number of cultural traits becomes large, the trait-number distributions approach Poisson distributions so that their means characterize cultural diversity in the population. We then analyse how the mean trait number varies at both the individual and population levels as a function of various demographic features, such as population size and subdivision, and social learning rules, such as conformism and anti-conformism. Diversity at the individual and population levels, as well as at the level of cultural homogeneity within groups, depends critically on the details of population demography and the individual and social learning rules.

On metapopulation resistance to drift and extinction.

The spatial configuration of metapopulations (numbers, sizes, and localization of patches) affects their ability to resist demographic extinction and genetic drift, but sometimes with opposite effects. Small and isolated patches, for instance, contribute marginally to demography but may play a large role in genetics by maintaining a sizeable amount of genetic variance among demes. In source-sink systems, similarly, connectivity may be beneficial in terms of effective size, but detrimental in terms of survival, by lowering the reproductive value of source populations. How to reconcile these opposite effects? Here we propose an analytical framework that integrates fixation time (ability to resist genetic drift) and extinction time (ability to resist demographic extinction) into a single index of resistance, measuring the ability of a metapopulation to maintain its demo-genetic integrity. We then illustrate with numerical examples how conflicting demands may be resolved.

Evolution of Y chromosomes : lessons from mammals and amphibians

RÉSUMÉ : Le sexe des individus peut être déterminé par l'environnement ou la génétique. Lorsque la détermination du sexe est génétique, il y a dans le génome, la présence de chromosomes spécifiques qui détermineront le sexe. Dans cette thèse, j'ai étudié l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels et dans quel contexte des marqueurs sur ces chromosomes peuvent être utilisés. Pour explorer la formation du chromosome Y, nous avons étudié les caractéristiques des chromosomes sexuels chez la rainette verte, Hyla arborea. Dans un premier temps, nous avons utilisé un marqueur situé sur les chromosomes sexuels X et Y chez plusieurs espèces appartenant au groupe de la rainette verte. Cela nous a permis de révéler chez toutes ces espèces une hétérogamétie mâle. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons tiré profit de deux autres marqueurs situés sur les chromosomes sexuels pour montrer que la recombinaison est supprimée chez les mâles mais pas chez les femelles. Pour expliquer la réduction de la variabilité sur le chromosome Y, il n'est pas nécessaire d'invoquer le balayage sélectif ou la sélection d'arrière-plan : le nombre de copies plus petit du chromosome Y dans le génome et l'absence de recombinaison suffisent à l'expliquer. Nous avons également analysé plus en détail la suppression de la recombinaison chez les mâles de H. arborea. Les modèles classiques de l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels supposent que la taille de la région non-recombinante augmente progressivement pendant l'évolution du chromosome Y, due à l'accumulation de changements structuraux. Dans cette étude, nous montrons un modèle différent, à savoir que la recombinaison est supprimée ou diminuée non seulement sur les chromosomes sexuels mais aussi sur les autosomes chez les mâles, dû à l'action de modificateurs généraux. En utilisant des marqueurs localisés sur le chromosome Y, ainsi que sur l'ADN mitochondrial et le chromosome X, nous avons étudié l'histoire évolutive de la musaraigne musette, Crocidura russula. Cette étude illustre que les analyses génétiques avec plusieurs types de marqueurs génétiques peuvent faciliter l'interprétation de l'histoire évolutive des espèces, mais que l'utilisation des marqueurs sur les chromosomes X et Y pour des études phylogéographiques est limitée par le peu de polymorphisme observé sur ces deux types de marqueurs. Le même jeu de données combiné avec des simulations a été employé pour comprendre les facteurs responsables de la faible variabilité sur le chromosome Y qui peut être expliqué, dans notre étude, par la démographie et les traits d'histoire de vie de C. russula. SUMMARY The sex of an individual is determined either by its environment or its genetics. Genetic sex determination relies on the presence of specific chromosomes that will determine the sex of their bearer. In this thesis, I studied the evolution of the sex chromosomes and the context in which markers on this type of chromosomes can be used. To explore the evolution of a Y chromosome, we studied the nascent sex chromosomes in the European tree frog Hyla arborea. First; we amplified a sex specific marker in several related species of European tree frog and found a homogeneous pattern of male heterogamety. Secondly, we used two additional sex-specific markers to show that recombination is suppressed in males but not in females. There is, therefore, no need to invoke background selection or selective sweeps to explain the reduced genetic variability on the Y chromosome, because the lower number of copies of the Y chromosomes per breeding pair and the absence of recombination are sufficient. To further analyze the suppression of recombination in male European. tree frogs, we constructed a microsatellite linkage map for this species. Classical models of sex-chromosome evolution assume that the non-recombining region expands progressively during the long-term evolution of the Y chromosome, owing to the accumulation of structural changes. Here we show a strikingly different pattern: recombination is suppressed or depressed both on sex chromosomes and autosomes in the heterogametic sex, presumably due to the action of general modifiers. We investigated the evolutionary history of the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula, using markers on both sex chromosomes and mtDNA. This study illustrates that multilocus genetic analyses facilitates the interpretation of a species' evolutionary history. It also demonstrates that phylogeographic inferences from X and Y chromosomal markers are restricted by the low levels of observed polymorphism. Combining this genetic study with simulations, we determined that the demography and the life-history traits of this species can alone be responsible for the low Y diversity. In conclusion, this thesis shows that sex chromosomes, in combination with autosomes or mtDNA, are necessary to understand the evolution of sex chromosomes and to precisely infer the population history of a species.

Knowledge of the Portuguese population on Basic Life Support and availability to attend training

OBJECTIVETo evaluate the level of knowledge and the availability of the Portuguese population to attend training in Basic Life Support (BLS) and identify factors related to their level of knowledge about BLS.METHODObservational study including 1,700 people who responded to a questionnaire containing data on demography, profession, training, interest in training and knowledge about BLS.RESULTSAmong 754 men and 943 women, only 17.8% (303) attended a course on BLS, but 95.6% expressed willingness to carry out the training. On average, they did not show good levels of knowledge on basic life support (correct answers in 25.9 ± 11.5 of the 64 indicators). Male, older respondents who had the training and those who performed BLS gave more correct answers, on average (p<0.01).CONCLUSIONThe skill levels of the Portuguese population are low, but people are available for training, hence it is important to develop training courses and practice to improve their knowledge.

The genetical theory of social behaviour.

We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.

Analyse systémique et prospective des usages de l'eau dans la région de Crans-Montana-Sierre (Suisse)

Crans-Montana-Sierre is a tourist area locateci in Rhone valley in central Valais, cha-racterized by dry climate and scarce summer precipitations. More than other regions in Switzerland, this area has suffered the effects of the drought (heat wave) that affec¬ted all Western Europe during summer 2003. In the future, climate change together with societal and economic development will signicantly modify the water need of the region and, consequently, may increase the potential conflicts of interest. Within a long term planning strategy, decision-makers require precise information about the current amount of water needed in the region, with particular attention to temporal and spatial concentration, and the forecasted amount for 2050. This work therefore aims at estimating the variation of the water demand by taking into account the influence of climate change (CH2011) and socio-economic scenarios, developed in cooperation with the competent authorities. This thesis, whose aim is to study the water management and water uses is a core part of the MontanAqua project "Water management in times of scarcity and global change" mainly because of its interdisciplinary topic at the interface between water resources, land development and the socio-political structure. Results show that socio-economic development by 2050 could have a greater impact than expected climate changes (CH2011, A1B scenarios) for the same time horizon for water demand. Demography, spatial planning, tourism and economic development are just some of the factors that could significantly affect the water consumption of the Crans-Montana-Sierre region. Compared with the future water resources available, the maximal water demand forecasted by the socio-economic scenarios developed within the project MontanAqua, could not always be satisfied. This issue, like extreme climate phenomena (as it was the summer drought occurred in 2003 or in April / May 2011), could be mitigated adopting regional management policies relating to a more rational water use and preventive storage of water resource. - Crans-Montana-Sierre est une région touristique située dans la vallée du Rhône; dans le Valais central, qui se caractérise par un climat relativement pauvre en précipitations et qui plus que d'autres a subi les effets de la sécheresse qui a touché l'Europe occidentale durant l'été 2003. À l'avenir, les changements climatiques ainsi que le développement socio-économique modifieront de manière significative les besoins en eau de la région, ce qui risque de faire augmenter les rivalités d'usage concernant cette ressource. Afin de jouer à l'avance, les décideurs ont besoin d'informations précises sur la quantité d'eau nécessaire à la région, avec une attention particulière à sa concentration temporelle et spatiale, à l'heure actuelle et à l'horizon 2050. Ce travail vise donc à estimer la variation de la demande en eau en tenant compte de l'influence des changements climatiques (CH2011) et des scénarios socio-économiques, élaborés en collaboration avec les autorités compétentes. Cette thèse, qui met l'accent sur les usages de l'eau fait partie du projet Montan Aqua « Gestion de l'eau en temps de pénurie et de changement global », est à l'intersection entre les ressources hydriques, l'aménagement du territoire et son organisation socio-politique, fait qui la met, non pas par son importance, mais par son emplacement et ses interconnexions, au coeur de cette recherche. Les résultats obtenus montrent comment les développements socio-économiques d'ici à 2050 ont un impact potentiellement plus important que les changements climatiques prévus par les scénarios AlB de CH2011 pour le même horizon temporel sur la demande en eau. Démographie, aménagement du territoire et contexte économico-touristique, ne sont que quelques-uns des facteurs qui ont la capacité d'agir significativement sur les usages de l'eau en ce qui concerne les aspects qualitatif et quantitatif de la région de Crans-Montana-Sierre. Par rapport aux ressources en eau disponibles à l'avenir, la demande maximale d'eau prévue par les scénarios socio-économiques développés au sein du projet MontanAqua risque de ne pas être toujours satisfaite. Ce danger et la manifestation de phénomènes climatiques extrêmes, comme la sécheresse estivale survenue en 2003 ou celle d'avril/mai 2011, ne pourront être atténués que par l'adoption de politiques de gestion à l'échelle régionale favorisant une utilisation plus rationnelle et un stockage préventif de la ressource en eau.

Banks and development: Jewish communities in the Italian Renaissance and current economic performance

Are differences in local banking development long-lasting? Do they affect long-term economic performance?I answer these questions by relying on an historical development that occurred in Italian cities during the 15thcentury. A sudden change in the Catholic doctrine had driven the Jews toward money lending. Cities thatwere hosting Jewish communities developed complex banking institutions for two reasons: first, the Jews werethe only people in Italy who were allowed to lend for a profit and, second, the Franciscan reaction to Jewishusury led to the creation of charity lending institutions, the Monti di Pietà, that have survived until today andhave become the basis of the Italian banking system. Using Jewish demography in 1500 as an instrument, Iprovide evidence of (1) an extraordinary persistence in the level of banking development across Italian cities (2)large effects of current local banking development on per-capita income. Additional firm-level analyses suggestthat well-functioning local banks exert large effects on aggregate productivity by reallocating resources towardmore efficient firms. I exploit the expulsion of the Jews from the Spanish territories in Italy in 1541 to arguethat my results are not driven by omitted institutional, cultural and geographical characteristics. In particular,I show that, in Central Italy, the difference in current income between cities that hosted Jewish communitiesand cities that did not exists only in those regions that were not Spanish territories in the 16th century.

Determinants of economic growth: Will data tell?

Many factors inhibiting and facilitating economic growth havebeen suggested. Can agnostics rely on international incomedata to tell them which matter? We find that agnostic priorslead to conclusions that are sensitive to differences acrossavailable income estimates. For example, the PWT 6.2 revisionof the 1960-96 income estimates in the PWT 6.1 leads tosubstantial changes regarding the role of government,international trade, demography, and geography. We concludethat margins of error in international income estimates appeartoo large for agnostic growth empirics.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Demographic and behavioral factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Switzerland.

Switzerland has the lowest adolescent fertility rate in Western Europe. According to data collected in 1993 as part of the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, 5% of 1,726 sexually active adolescents in a group of 3,993 15-20-year-old women enrolled in academic or vocational classes had ever been pregnant; most of these women (80%) had terminated their pregnancy. Adolescents who had ever been pregnant did not differ significantly from those who had not by demographic characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven factors associated with pregnancy: having had four or more sexual partners; not having used contraceptives at first intercourse; ever use of less-effective contraceptive methods; having used illicit drugs during the last 30 days; living apart from one's parents; recently experiencing stress; and perceiving a lack of future prospects.

Non-monophyly of the woody bamboos (Bambuseae; Poaceae): a multi-gene region phylogenetic analysis of Bambusoideae s.s.

The taxonomy of Bambusoideae is in a state of flux and phylogenetic studies are required to help resolve systematic issues. Over 60 taxa, representing all subtribes of Bambuseae and related non-bambusoid grasses were sampled. A combined analysis of five plastid DNA regions, trnL intron, trnL-F intergenic spacer, atpB-rbcL intergenic spacer, rps16 intron, and matK, was used to study the phylogenetic relationships among the bamboos in general and the woody bamboos in particular. Within the BEP clade (Bambusoideae s.s., Ehrhartoideae, Pooideae), Pooideae were resolved as sister to Bambusoideae s.s. Tribe Bambuseae, the woody bamboos, as currently recognized were not monophyletic because Olyreae, the herbaceous bamboos, were sister to tropical Bambuseae. Temperate Bambuseae were sister to the group consisting of tropical Bambuseae and Olyreae. Thus, the temperate Bambuseae would be better treated as their own tribe Arundinarieae than as a subgroup of Bambuseae. Within the tropical Bambuseae, neotropical Bambuseae were sister to the palaeotropical and Austral Bambuseae. In addition, Melocanninae were found to be sister to the remaining palaeotropical and Austral Bambuseae. We discuss phylogenetic and morphological patterns of diversification and interpret them in a biogeographic context.

Quantifying quantitative literacy: Age heaping and the history of human capital

Age data frequently display excess frequencies at round or attractive ages, such as even numbers and multiples of five. This phenomenon of age heaping has been viewed as a problem in previous research, especially in demography and epidemiology. We see it as an opportunity and propose its use as a measure of human capital that can yield comparable estimates across a wide range of historical contexts. A simulation study yields methodological guidelines for measuring and interpreting differences in ageheaping, while analysis of contemporary and historical datasets demonstrates the existence of a robust correlation between age heaping and literacy at both the individual and aggregate level. To illustrate the method, we generate estimates of human capital in Europe over the very long run, which support the hypothesis of a major increase in human capital preceding the industrial revolution.