Attitudes, Ideologies and Self-Organisation : Information Load Minimisation in Multi-Agent Decision Making

Sophisticated models of human social behaviour are fast becoming highly desirable in an increasingly complex and interrelated world. Here, we propose that rather than taking established theories from the physical sciences and naively mapping them into the social world, the advanced concepts and theories of social psychology should be taken as a starting point, and used to develop a new modelling methodology. In order to illustrate how such an approach might be carried out, we attempt to model the low elaboration attitude changes of a society of agents in an evolving social context. We propose a geometric model of an agent in context, where individual agent attitudes are seen to self-organise to form ideologies, which then serve to guide further agent-based attitude changes. A computational implementation of the model is shown to exhibit a number of interesting phenomena, including a tendency for a measure of the entropy in the system to decrease, and a potential for externally guiding a population of agents towards a new desired ideology.

A new first-order decision-making model for the procurement of public sector infrastructure: Procedures and Testing

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and delivering Value for Money (VfM). As part of the background to this challenge, a critique is given of current practice in the selection of the approach to procure major public sector infrastructure in Australia and which is akin to the Multi-Attribute Utility Approach (MAUA). To contribute towards addressing the key weaknesses of MAUA, a new first-order procurement decision-making model is presented. The model addresses the make-or-buy decision (risk allocation); the bundling decision (property rights incentives), as well as the exchange relationship decision (relational to arms-length exchange) in its novel approach to articulating a procurement strategy designed to yield superior VfM across the whole life of the asset. The aim of this paper is report on the development of this decisionmaking model in terms of the procedural tasks to be followed and the method being used to test the model. The planned approach to testing the model uses a sample of 87 Australian major infrastructure projects in the sum of AUD32 billion and deploys a key proxy for VfM comprising expressions of interest, as an indicator of competition.

Interacting constraints shape emergent decision-making of referees

How and why football referees made decisions was investigated. A constructivist grounded theory methodology was undertaken to tap into the experiential knowledge of referees. The participant cohort comprised 7 A-League referees (aged 23 to 35) and 8 local Brisbane league referees (aged 20 to 50), spanning the lowest to highest levels of competition in men’s football in Australia. Results found that referees used ‘four pillars’ to underpin their judgments, these were conceptual notions of: safety, fairness, accuracy and entertainment. A fifth pillar ‘consistency’ referred to the referee’s ‘contextual sensitivity’. Results were explained using an ecological dynamics framework that emphasises the individual-environment scale of analysis. It was concluded that interacting constraints shape emergent decision-making in referees which are nested in task goals.

Assessing testamentary and decision-making competence/capacity in the Australian context

Australia lacks a satisfactory, national paradigm for assessing competence and capacity in the context of testamentary, enduring power of attorney and advance care directive documents. Competence/capacity assessments are currently conducted on an ad hoc basis by legal and/or medical professionals. The reliability of the assessment process is subject to the skill set and mutual understanding of the legal and/or medical professional conducting the assessment. There is a growth in the prevalence of diseases such as dementia. Such diseases impact upon cognition which increasingly necessitates collaboration between the legal and medical professions when assessing the effect of mentally disabling conditions upon competency/capacity. Miscommunication and lack of understanding between legal and medical professionals involved could impede the development of a satisfactory paradigm. A qualitative study seeking the views of legal and medical professionals who practise in this area has been conducted. This incorporated surveys and interviews of 10 legal and 20 medical practitioners. Some of the results are discussed here. Practitioners were asked whether there is a standard approach and whether national guidelines were desirable. There was general agreement that uniform guidelines for the assessment of competence/capacity would be desirable. The interviews also canvassed views as to the state of the relationship between the professions. The results of the empirical research support the hypothesis that relations between the professions could be improved. The development of a national paradigm would promote consistency and transparency of process, helping to improve the professional relationship and maximising the principles of autonomy, participation and dignity.

Decision making under pressure : a behavioural economics perspective

This research investigates the decision making process of individuals from revealed preferences in extreme environments or life-and-death situations, from a behavioral economics perspective. The empirical analysis of revealed behavioral preferences shows how the individual decision making process can deviate from the standard self-interested or “homo economicus” model in non-standard situations. The environments examined include: elite athletes in FIFA World and Euro Cups; climbing on Everest and the Himalaya; communication during 9/11 and risk seeking after the 2011 Brisbane floods. The results reveal that the interaction of culture and environment has a significant impact on the decision process, as social behaviors and institutions are intimately intertwined, which govern the processes of human behavior and interaction. Additionally, that risk attitudes are not set and that immediate environmental factors can induce a significant shift in an individuals risk seeking behaviors.

Project governance : ethical decision making in project procurement in the Malaysian public sectors

Managing public sector projects in Malaysia is a unique challenge. This is because of the ethical issues involved during the project procurement process. These ethical issues need attention because they will have an impact on the quality, cost and time of the project itself. The ethical issues here include conflict of interest, bid shopping, collusive tendering, bid cutting, corruption and the payment game. In 2006, 17.3% of 417 Malaysian government contract projects were considered sick due to contractors' performances that failed to conduct the project according to the project plan. Some of the sick projects from these statistics are due to the ethical issues involved. These construction projects have low quality due to the selection of the contractors, done unethically due to personal relationships instead of professional qualifications. That is why it is important to govern the project procurement processes to ensure the accountability and transparency of the decision making process to ensure that these ethical issues can be avoided. Extensive research has been conducted on the ethical issues in the tendering process or the award phase of project management. There is a lack of studies looking at the role of clients, including the government client, in relation to unethical practice in project procurement in the public sector. It is important to understand that ethical issues not only involve the contractors and suppliers but also the clients. Even though there are codes of ethics in the public sectors, ethical issues still arise. Therefore, this research develops a project governance framework (PGEDM) for ethical decision making in the Malaysian public sectors. This framework combines the ethical decision making process together with the project governance principals in guiding the public sectors with ethical decision making in project procurement. A triangulation of questionnaire survey and Delphi study was employed in this research to collect required qualitative and quantitative data. A questionnaire survey was conducted among the public officials (the practitioners) who are currently working in the procurement area in the Malaysian public sectors, in identifying the ethical behaviours and factors influencing further ethical behaviour to occur. A Delphi study was also conducted with the assistance of a panel of experts consisting of practitioners that have expertise in the area of project governance and project procurement as well as academician, which further considered the relationship and the influence of the criteria and indicators of ethical decision making (EDM) and project governance (project criteria, organisational culture, contract award criteria, individual criteria, client's requirements, government procedures and professional ethics). Through the identification and integration of the factors and EDM criteria as well as the project governance criteria and EDM steps for ethical issues, a PGEDM framework was developed to promote, and drive consistent decision outcome in project procurement in the public sector. The framework contributes significantly to ethical decision making in the project procurement process. These findings not only give benefit to the people involved in project procurement but also to the public officials in guiding them to be more accountable in handling ethical issues in the future and to have a more transparent decision making process.

Constructing a clinical decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy using a Bayesian Network

A decision-making framework for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is being developed using a Bayesian Network (BN) to graphically describe, and probabilistically quantify, the many interacting factors that are involved in this complex clinical process. Outputs of the BN will provide decision-support for radiation therapists to assist them to make correct inferences relating to the likelihood of treatment delivery accuracy for a given image-guided set-up correction. The framework is being developed as a dynamic object-oriented BN, allowing for complex modelling with specific sub-regions, as well as representation of the sequential decision-making and belief updating associated with IGRT. A prototype graphic structure for the BN was developed by analysing IGRT practices at a local radiotherapy department and incorporating results obtained from a literature review. Clinical stakeholders reviewed the BN to validate its structure. The BN consists of a sub-network for evaluating the accuracy of IGRT practices and technology. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) contains nodes and directional arcs representing the causal relationship between the many interacting factors such as tumour site and its associated critical organs, technology and technique, and inter-user variability. The BN was extended to support on-line and off-line decision-making with respect to treatment plan compliance. Following conceptualisation of the framework, the BN will be quantified. It is anticipated that the finalised decision-making framework will provide a foundation to develop better decision-support strategies and automated correction algorithms for IGRT.

The importance of importance : its impact on decision-making in mall retail categories during an economic downturn

The study examines how, during an economic downturn, the perceived importance of the value offering of retail store categories, as identified by a major international mall operator based in Australia, influences the relationship between consumers’ shopping attitudes and likelihood of purchasing in those categories. The findings show variance in the importance pertaining to retail store categories between those that have and those that have not altered their shopping behaviour. Different mediating effects were found in the major, mini-major, leisure, apparel, and mobile phone categories, suggestive of each group having differing levels of self-interest in the value offerings of each category, thus, symptomatic of dissimilar decision-making strategies for each group. Contributions to theory and practice are discussed.

Voltage regulation, power balancing and battery storage discharge control by smart demand side management and multi-objective decision making

A novel intelligent online demand side management system is proposed for peak load management. The method also regulates the network voltage, balances the power in three phases and coordinates the battery storage discharge within the network. This method uses low cost controllers with low bandwidth two-way communication installed in costumers' premises and at distribution transformers to manage the peak load while maximizing customer satisfaction. A multi-objective decision making process is proposed to select the load(s) to be delayed or controlled. The efficacy of the proposed control system is verified through an event-based developed simulation in Matlab.

Remote sensing and core data needed to support planning and policy decision making

A variety of sustainable development research efforts and related activities are attempting to reconcile the issues of conserving our natural resources without limiting economic motivation while also improving our social equity and quality of life. Land use/land cover change, occurring on a global scale, is an aggregate of local land use decisions and profoundly impacts our environment. It is therefore the local decision making process that should be the eventual target of many of the ongoing data collection and research efforts which strive toward supporting a sustainable future. Satellite imagery data is a primary source of data upon which to build a core data set for use by researchers in analyzing this global change. A process is necessary to link global change research, utilizing satellite imagery, to the local land use decision making process. One example of this is the NASA-sponsored Regional Data Center (RDC) prototype. The RDC approach is an attempt to integrate science and technology at the community level. The anticipated result of this complex interaction between research and the decision making communities will be realized in the form of long-term benefits to the public.

Megaprojects, Affected communities and sustainability decision making

Increasing scrutiny from the wider community is contributing to a shift towards the delivery and operation of major projects that meets and maintains the sustainability priorities of the community. This is especially significant for large economic projects which have a global track record of social benefit shortfalls, cost overruns, and underestimation of risks. Major industrial and infrastructure projects that cost more than US$1 billion are typically called mega-projects. Globally, investment in mega-projects has exceeded $10 trillion in the last ten years. With so many projects in the pipeline -and many taking place in emerging economies – the effectiveness of the sustainability decision making process is particularly important. The purpose of this paper is to examine how the existing sustainability decision making processes and strategies address the potential challenges facing communities affected by mega-projects. It highlights issues with current operational level approaches to social sustainability assessment at the project level, and argues that to improve accountability and transparency of project outcomes, positive externalities that flow from goods and services provided by the social and cultural systems of the community must be incorporated into decision making.

Navigating the social dimension of sustainability decision making of mega-projects

Until recently, sustainable development was perceived as essentially an environmental issue, relating to the integration of environmental concerns into economic decision-making. As a result, environmental considerations have been the primary focus of sustainability decision making during the economic development process for major projects, and the assessment and preservation of social and cultural systems has been arguably too limited. The practice of social impact and sustainability assessment is an established and accepted part of project planning, however, these practices are not aimed at delivering sustainability outcomes for social systems, rather they are designed to minimise ‘unsustainability’ and contribute to project approval. Currently, there exists no widely recognised standard approach for assessing social sustainability and accounting for positive externalities of existing social systems in project decision making. As a result, very different approaches are applied around the world, and even by the same organisations from one project to another. This situation is an impediment not only to generating a shared understanding of the social implications as related to major projects, but more importantly, to identifying common approaches to help improve social sustainability outcomes of proposed activities. This paper discusses the social dimension of sustainability decision making of mega-projects, and argues that to improve accountability and transparency of project outcomes it is important to understand the characteristics that make some communities more vulnerable than others to mega-project development. This paper highlights issues with current operational level approaches to social sustainability assessment at the project level, and asserts that the starting point for project planning and sustainability decision making of mega-projects needs to include the preservation, maintenance, and enhancement of existing social and cultural systems. It draws attention to the need for a scoping mechanism to systematically assess community vulnerability (or sensitivity) to major infrastructure development during the feasibility and planning stages of a project.

eHealth-as-a-Service (eHaaS) : a data-driven decision making approach in Australian context

A commitment in 2010 by the Australian Federal Government to spend $466.7 million dollars on the implementation of personally controlled electronic health records (PCEHR) heralded a shift to a more effective and safer patient centric eHealth system. However, deployment of the PCEHR has met with much criticism, emphasised by poor adoption rates over the first 12 months of operation. An indifferent response by the public and healthcare providers largely sceptical of its utility and safety speaks to the complex sociotechnical drivers and obstacles inherent in the embedding of large (national) scale eHealth projects. With government efforts to inflate consumer and practitioner engagement numbers giving rise to further consumer disillusionment, broader utilitarian opportunities available with the PCEHR are at risk. This paper discusses the implications of establishing the PCEHR as the cornerstone of a holistic eHealth strategy for the aggregation of longitudinal patient information. A viewpoint is offered that the real value in patient data lies not just in the collection of data but in the integration of this information into clinical processes within the framework of a commoditised data-driven approach. Consideration is given to the eHealth-as-a-Service (eHaaS) construct as a disruptive next step for co-ordinated individualised healthcare in the Australian context.

The role of interpersonal influence in budget decision making: The Canadian public library experience

This study determined factors which influenced Canadian provincial (state) politicians when making funding decisions for public libraries. Using the case study methodology, Canadian provincial/state-level funding for public libraries in the 2009-2010 fiscal year was examined. The data were analyzed to determine whether Cialdini’s theory of influence and specifically any of the six tactics of influence (i.e., commitment and consistency, authority, liking, social proof, scarcity, and reciprocity) were instrumental in these budgetary decision-making processes. Findings show the principles of “authority,” “consistency and commitment,” and “liking” were relevant, and that “liking” was especially important to these decisions.

Real-time decision making for autonomous city vehicles

This paper addresses the topic of real-time decision making by autonomous city vehicles. Beginning with an overview of the state of research, the paper presents the vehicle decision making & control systemarchitecture, explains the subcomponents which are relevant for decision making (World Model and Driving Maneuver subsystem), and presents the decision making process. Experimental test results confirmthe suitability of the developed approach to deal with the complex real-world urban traffic.