What trees tell us: dendrochronological and statistical analysis of the data

Trees are a great bank of data, named sometimes for this reason as the "silentwitnesses" of the past. Due to annual formation of rings, which is normally influenced directly by of climate parameters (generally changes in temperature and moisture or precipitation) and other environmental factors; these changes, occurred in the past, are"written" in the tree "archives" and can be "decoded" in order to interpret what hadhappened before, mainly applied for the past climate reconstruction.Using dendrochronological methods for obtaining samples of Pinus nigra fromthe Catalonian PrePirineous region, the cores of 15 trees with total time spine of about 100 - 250 years were analyzed for the tree ring width (TRW) patterns and had quite high correlation between them (0.71 ¿ 0.84), corresponding to a common behaviour for the environmental changes in their annual growth.After different trials with raw TRW data for standardization in order to take outthe negative exponential growth curve dependency, the best method of doubledetrending (power transformation and smoothing line of 32 years) were selected for obtaining the indexes for further analysis.Analyzing the cross-correlations between obtained tree ring width indexes andclimate data, significant correlations (p<0.05) were observed in some lags, as forexample, annual precipitation in lag -1 (previous year) had negative correlation with TRW growth in the Pallars region. Significant correlation coefficients are between 0.27- 0.51 (with positive or negative signs) for many cases; as for recent (but very short period) climate data of Seu d¿Urgell meteorological station, some significant correlation coefficients were observed, of the order of 0.9.These results confirm the hypothesis of using dendrochronological data as aclimate signal for further analysis, such as reconstruction of climate in the past orprediction in the future for the same locality.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.

Traducción técnica del capítulo III del libro Advanced Data Warehouse design: from conventional to spatial and temporal applications

The proposal to work on this final project came after several discussions held with Dr. Elzbieta Malinowski Gadja, who in 2008 published the book entitled Advanced Data Warehouse Design: From Conventional to Spatial and Temporal Applications (Data-Centric Systems and Applications). The project was carried out under the technical supervision of Dr. Malinowski and the direct beneficiary was the University of Costa Rica (UCR) where Dr. Malinowski is a professor at the Department of Computer Science and Informatics. The purpose of this project was twofold: First, to translate chapter III of said book with the intention of generating educational material for the use of the UCR and, second, to venture in the field of technical translation related to data warehouse. For the first component, the goal was to generate a final product that would eventually serve as an educational tool for the post-graduate courses of the UCR. For the second component, this project allowed me to acquire new skills and put into practice techniques that have helped me not only to perfom better in my current job as an Assistant Translator of the Inter-American BAnk (IDB), but also to use them in similar projects. The process was lenggthy and required torough research and constant communication with the author. The investigation focused on the search of terms and definitions to prepare the glossary, which was the basis to start the translation project. The translation process itself was carried out by phases, so that comments and corrections by the author could be taken into account in subsequent stages. Later, based on the glossary and the translated text, illustrations had been created in the Visio software were translated. In addition to the technical revision by the author, professor Carme Mangiron was in charge of revising the non-technical text. The result was a high-quality document that is currently used as reference and study material by the Department of Computer Science and Informatics of Costa Rica.

Soil seed bank variation patterns according to environmental factors in a natural grassland

This research aimed to determine the soil seed bank and its relationship with environmental factors that have an influence in the distribution of the vegetation above the ground in an excluded area of natural grassland in the South of Brazil. Most of the 122 identified species in the seed bank were perennials. Data analysis indicated three distinct community groups, according to the size and composition of the soil seed bank in lowlands with permanent wet soils, in lowlands and in other areas. In general, lowlands were characterized by low-fertility soils, high moisture and aluminum contents, being spatially homogeneous habitats and, therefore, more restricted to vegetation heterogeneity than other parts of the relief. Environmental factors most associated with soil seed bank size and composition were relief position and their co-related soil variables such as: soil moisture content, potassium content, organic matter, basic saturation of cation exchange soil capacity, exchangeable basics sum of the soil and clay soil content. According to that, relief position, associated with combined effects of soil chemical properties related to it, determines the observed variation pattern of the soil seed bank, as a reflection of the vegetation above the area.

Effects of bank supervision and regulation on bank risk

In the last few decades, banking has strongly internationalized and become more complex. Hence, bank supervision and regulation has taken global perspective, too. The most important international regulation are the Basel frameworks by the Basel committee on banking supervision. This study examines the effects of bank supervision and regulation, especially the Basel II, on bank risk and risk-taking. In order to separate and recognize the efficiency of these effects, the co-effects of many supervisory and regulatory tools together with other relevant factors must be taken into account. The focus of the study is on the effects of asymmetric information and banking procyclicality on the efficiency of the Basel II. This study tries to find an answer, if the Basel II, implemented in 2008, has decreased bank risk in banks of European Union member states. This study examines empirically, if the volatility on bank stock returns have changed after the implementation of the Basel II. Panel data consists of 62 bank stock returns, bank-specific variables, economic variables and variables concerning regulatory environment between 2003 and 2011. Fixed effects regression is used for panel data analysis. Results indicate that volatility on bank stock returns has increased after 2008 and the implementation of the Basel II. Result is statistically very significant and robustness has been verified in different model specifications. The result of this study contradicts with the goal of the Basel II about banking system stability. Banking procyclicality and wrong incentives for regulatory arbitrage under asymmetric information explained in theoretical part may explain this result. On the other hand, simultaneously with the implementation of the Basel II, the global financial crisis emerged and caused severe losses in banks and increased stock volatility. However, it is clear that supervision and regulation was unable to prevent the global financial crisis. After the financial crisis, supervision and regulation have been reformed globally. The main problems of the Basel II, examined in the theoretical part, have been recognized in order to prevent problems of procyclicality and wrong incentives in the future.

The Inflation Bias When the Central Bank Targets, the Natural Rate of Unemployment

This paper studies the proposition that an inflation bias can arise in a setup where a central banker with asymmetric preferences targets the natural unemployment rate. Preferences are asymmetric in the sense that positive unemployment deviations from the natural rate are weighted more (or less) severely than negative deviations in the central banker's loss function. The bias is proportional to the conditional variance of unemployment. The time-series predictions of the model are evaluated using data from G7 countries. Econometric estimates support the prediction that the conditional variance of unemployment and the rate of inflation are positively related.

Fertility differentials of Jewish women living in Israel and the West Bank

Israël est l’un des pays développés les plus féconds dans le monde et maintient un taux de fécondité stable depuis 1995. Il a échappé à la chute spectaculaire de la fécondité qui a été observée dans la plupart des pays occidentaux. Le taux de fécondité était de 2,96 enfants par femme en 2009 (Statistical Abstract of Israel, 2010, tableau 3.14). Le maintien d’une si forte fécondité pourrait être dû à l’immigration et à la “guerre démographique” qui sévit entre les différentes communautés vivant dans le pays (Sardon, 2006). Toutefois, on observe une différence significative entre les niveaux de fécondité des juifs d’Israël et de Cisjordanie depuis plusieurs années. Les études qui portent sur la fécondité en Israël sont faites au niveau national, ce qui ne fournit aucune explication sur cette différence. Pour ces raisons, l’étude de la fécondité en Israël mérite une attention particulière. Ce projet vise à identifier les différents facteurs qui ont une incidence sur la fécondité des femmes juives vivant en Israël et en Cisjordanie. Il contribuera à une meilleure compréhension des comportements liés à la fécondité de la population juive de la Cisjordanie et peut fournir des indices sur les mécanismes complexes qui régissent les relations entre Juifs et Arabes dans les territoires occupés. Grâce aux données recueillies dans l’Enquête sociale générale de 2004 d’Israël,des analyses descriptives et explicatives ont été produites. Dans un premier temps, les facteurs qui ont un impact sur la fécondité dans chaque région ont été déterminés et par la suite, une analyse de l’importance de ces facteur sur la fécondité a été produite. Le nombre d’enfants nés de femmes âgées de 20 à 55 ans constitue la variable d’intérêt et les variables explicatives retenues sont les suivantes: religiosité, éducation, revenu familial mensuel, statut d’emploi, pays d’origine, âge et état matrimonial. Cette étude a montré que les femmes juives qui résident en Cisjordanie ont un nombre prévu d’enfants de 13% supérieur à celui des femmes juives qui résident en Israël lorsque l’on contrôle toutes les variables. Il est notamment montré que la religion joue un rôle important dans l’explication de la forte fécondité des femmes juives dans les deux régions, mais son impact est plus important en Israël. L’éducation joue également un rôle important dans la réduction du nombre prévu d’enfants, en particulier en Cisjordanie. Tous ces facteurs contribuent à expliquer les différents niveaux de fécondité dans les deux régions, mais l’étude montre que ces facteurs ne permettent pas une explication exhaustive de la forte fécondité en Israël et en Cisjordanie. D’autres forces qui ne sont pas mesurables doivent avoir une incidence sur la fécondité telles que le nationalisme ou la laïcisation, par exemple.

Studies on the benthose of the mud bank regions of the Kerala coast

There is very little information on the subtidal bottom fauna of the shelf regions in the seas around India. What little is known is restricted to macro benthos. The paucity of the work on bottom fauna and the importance of mud banks in the fishery of the South West Coast of India has initiated the present study. Attempts have been made to obtain a picture of the bottom fauna of a mud bank region of the Kerala Coast. The difficulties involved in the sampling and analysis, especially the availability of a suitable vessel during the S.W. Monsoon, resulted in the work being restricted mainly to the Narakal mud bank region 6 Km. north of Cochin Detailed sampling is conducted using grab, dredge and to a small extent beam trawl, to assess the qualitative and quantitative nature of the macro benthos. Important species contributing to the fauna are identified and the standing crop estimated for different seasons. The meiobenthos was studied using core samples taken from the grab. Animals were identified to the major taxa. Standing crop of meiobenthos and the quantitative importance of different groups were also studied. The data collected have been interpreted and discussed. As an understanding of the physico-chemical aspects of the environment is essential in order to obtain a true picture of the benthos, attempts were made in this direction. Environmental parameters such as temperature of the sediment, salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in the overlying water were studied .during the period of benthos investigation. Monthly observations on the dissolved inorganic and organic phosphorus in the area of investigation have been made. The physico-chemical nature of the sediment was also studied. Influence of these ecological variables on the bottom fauna is discussed.

A Compiler Integrated Assistance for Optimum Data Allocation in Banked Memory Embedded Processors

Bank switching in embedded processors having partitioned memory architecture results in code size as well as run time overhead. An algorithm and its application to assist the compiler in eliminating the redundant bank switching codes introduced and deciding the optimum data allocation to banked memory is presented in this work. A relation matrix formed for the memory bank state transition corresponding to each bank selection instruction is used for the detection of redundant codes. Data allocation to memory is done by considering all possible permutation of memory banks and combination of data. The compiler output corresponding to each data mapping scheme is subjected to a static machine code analysis which identifies the one with minimum number of bank switching codes. Even though the method is compiler independent, the algorithm utilizes certain architectural features of the target processor. A prototype based on PIC 16F87X microcontrollers is described. This method scales well into larger number of memory blocks and other architectures so that high performance compilers can integrate this technique for efficient code generation. The technique is illustrated with an example

Media bias and central bank response. Evidence from the nominal exchange rate behavior in Colombia

Since 1991 Colombia has had a market-determined Peso - US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate (NER), after more than 20 years of controlled and multiple exchange rates. The behavior (revaluation / devaluation) of the NER is constantly reported in news, editorials and op-eds of major newspapers of the nation with particular attention to revaluation. The uneven reporting of revaluation episodes can be explained by the existence of an interest group particulary affected by revaluation, looking to increase awareness and sympathy for help from public institutions. Using the number of news and op-eds from a major Colombian newspaper, it is shown that there is an over-reporting of revaluation episodes in contrast to devaluation ones. Secondly, using text analysis upon the content of the news, it is also shown that the words devaluation and revaluation are far apart in the distribution of words within the news; and revaluation is highly correlated with words related to: public institutions, exporters and the need of assistance. Finally it is also shown that the probability of the central bank buying US dollars to lessen revaluation effects increases with the number of news; even though the central bank allegedly intervenes in the exchange rate market only to tame volatility or accumulate international reserves.

Modeling the monetary policy reaction function of the colombian central bank

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target rather than in reducing inflation excessively. The forecasting performance of the model, both within and beyond the estimation period, appears to be particularly good.

The cyclical behavior of bank capital buffers in an emerging economy: size do matters

Using a panel of Colombian banks and quarterly data between 1996:1 and 2010:3, we study the relationship between short-run adjustemnts in bank capital buffers and the business cycle. We follow a partial adjustment framework and control for several variables that have been identified as important determinants of bank capital buffers in previous studies, and find that bank capital buffers vary over the business cycle. We are able to identify a negative co-movement of capital buffers and and the business cycle. However, we also find that capital buffers of small and large banks behave asymmetrically during the business cycle. While the former appear to be constant over time, once the appropriate set of control variables is used, the latter present a countercyclical behavior. Our results suggest the possible need of the implementation of regulatory policy measures in developing countries

Accurate molecular structures of chlorothiazide and hydrochlorothiazide by joint refinement against powder neutron and X-ray diffraction data

The compounds chlorothiazide and hydrochlorothiazide (crystalline form II) have been studied in their fully hydrogenous forms by powder neutron diffraction on the GEM diffractometer. The results of joint Rietveld refinement of the structures against multi-bank neutron and single-bank X-ray powder data are reported and show that accurate and precise structural information can be obtained from polycrystalline molecular organic materials by this route.

Dynamic data reconciliation for sequential modular simulators: application to a mixing process

This paper describes a method for dynamic data reconciliation of nonlinear systems that are simulated using the sequential modular approach, and where individual modules are represented by a class of differential algebraic equations. The estimation technique consists of a bank of extended Kalman filters that are integrated with the modules. The paper reports a study based on experimental data obtained from a pilot scale mixing process.