Swiss Alps Jungfrau Aletsch UNESCO World Heritage Site - The state of this World Heritage region as a starting point for regional monitoring

The UNESCO listing as World Heritage Site confirms the outstanding qualities of the high-mountain region around the Great Aletsch Glacier. The region of the World Heritage Site now faces the responsibility to make these qualities visible and to preserve them for future generations. Consequently the qualities of the site must not be regarded in isolation but in the context of the entire region with its dynamics and developments. Regional monitoring is the observation and evaluation of temporal changes in target variables. It is thus an obligation towards UNESCO, who demands regular reports about the state of the listed World Heritage assets. It also allows statements about sustainable regional development and can be the basis for early recognition of threats to the outstanding qualities. Monitoring programmes face three major challenges: first, great care must be taken in defining the target qualities to be monitored or the monitoring would remain vague. Secondly, the selection of ideal indicators to describe these qualities is impeded by inadequate data quality and availability, compromises are inevitable. Thirdly, there is always an element of insecurity in the interpretation of the results as to what influences and determines the changes in the target qualities. The first survey of the monitoring programme confirmed the exceptional qualities of the region and also highlighted problematic issues.

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

fMRI of Emotion

Recent brain imaging work has expanded our understanding of the mechanisms of perceptual, cognitive, and motor functions in human subjects, but research into the cerebral control of emotional and motivational function is at a much earlier stage. Important concepts and theories of emotion are briefly introduced, as are research designs and multimodal approaches to answering the central questions in the field. We provide a detailed inspection of the methodological and technical challenges in assessing the cerebral correlates of emotional activation, perception, learning, memory, and emotional regulation behavior in healthy humans. fMRI is particularly challenging in structures such as the amygdala as it is affected by susceptibility-related signal loss, image distortion, physiological and motion artifacts and colocalized Resting State Networks (RSNs). We review how these problems can be mitigated by using optimized echo-planar imaging (EPI) parameters, alternative MR sequences, and correction schemes. High-quality data can be acquired rapidly in these problematic regions with gradient compensated multiecho EPI or high resolution EPI with parallel imaging and optimum gradient directions, combined with distortion correction. Although neuroimaging studies of emotion encounter many difficulties regarding the limitations of measurement precision, research design, and strategies of validating neuropsychological emotion constructs, considerable improvement in data quality and sensitivity to subtle effects can be achieved. The methods outlined offer the prospect for fMRI studies of emotion to provide more sensitive, reliable, and representative models of measurement that systematically relate the dynamics of emotional regulation behavior with topographically distinct patterns of activity in the brain. This will provide additional information as an aid to assessment, categorization, and treatment of patients with emotional and personality disorders.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Intra-Rater and Inter-Rater Reliability of a Medical Record Abstraction Study on Transition of Care after Childhood Cancer.

BACKGROUND The abstraction of data from medical records is a widespread practice in epidemiological research. However, studies using this means of data collection rarely report reliability. Within the Transition after Childhood Cancer Study (TaCC) which is based on a medical record abstraction, we conducted a second independent abstraction of data with the aim to assess a) intra-rater reliability of one rater at two time points; b) the possible learning effects between these two time points compared to a gold-standard; and c) inter-rater reliability. METHOD Within the TaCC study we conducted a systematic medical record abstraction in the 9 Swiss clinics with pediatric oncology wards. In a second phase we selected a subsample of medical records in 3 clinics to conduct a second independent abstraction. We then assessed intra-rater reliability at two time points, the learning effect over time (comparing each rater at two time-points with a gold-standard) and the inter-rater reliability of a selected number of variables. We calculated percentage agreement and Cohen's kappa. FINDINGS For the assessment of the intra-rater reliability we included 154 records (80 for rater 1; 74 for rater 2). For the inter-rater reliability we could include 70 records. Intra-rater reliability was substantial to excellent (Cohen's kappa 0-6-0.8) with an observed percentage agreement of 75%-95%. In all variables learning effects were observed. Inter-rater reliability was substantial to excellent (Cohen's kappa 0.70-0.83) with high agreement ranging from 86% to 100%. CONCLUSIONS Our study showed that data abstracted from medical records are reliable. Investigating intra-rater and inter-rater reliability can give confidence to draw conclusions from the abstracted data and increase data quality by minimizing systematic errors.

Sudden cardiac arrest in sports - need for uniform registration: A Position Paper from the Sport Cardiology Section of the European Association for Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation

There are large variations in the incidence, registration methods and reported causes of sudden cardiac arrest/sudden cardiac death (SCA/SCD) in competitive and recreational athletes. A crucial question is to which degree these variations are genuine or partly due to methodological incongruities. This paper discusses the uncertainties about available data and provides comprehensive suggestions for standard definitions and a guide for uniform registration parameters of SCA/SCD. The parameters include a definition of what constitutes an 'athlete', incidence calculations, enrolment of cases, the importance of gender, ethnicity and age of the athlete, as well as the type and level of sporting activity. A precise instruction for autopsy practice in the case of a SCD of athletes is given, including the role of molecular samples and evaluation of possible doping. Rational decisions about cardiac preparticipation screening and cardiac safety at sport facilities requires increased data quality concerning incidence, aetiology and management of SCA/SCD in sports. Uniform standard registration of SCA/SCD in athletes and leisure sportsmen would be a first step towards this goal.

Descriptive epidemiology of cancer in three regions of Kazakhstan

The current study investigated data quality and estimated cancer incidence and mortality rates using data provided by Pavlodar, Semipalatinsk and Ust-Kamenogorsk Regional Cancer Registries of Kazakhstan during the period of 1996–1998. Assessment of data quality was performed using standard quality indicators including internal database checks, proportion of cases verified from death certificates only, mortality:incidence ratio, data patterns, proportion of cases with unknown primary site, proportion of cases with unknown age. Crude and age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated, by gender, for all cancers combined and for 28 specific cancer sites for each year of the study period. The five most frequent cancers were identified and described for every population. The results of the study provide the first simultaneous assessment of data quality and standardized incidence and mortality rates for Kazakh cancer registries. ^

Prostate cancer in Texas: Addressing racial and ethnic disparities

Racial disparities in prostate cancer are of public health concern. This dissertation used Texas Cancer Registry data to examine racial disparities in prostate cancer incidence for Texas over the period 1995–1998 and subsequent mortality through the year 2001. Incidence, mortality, treatment, and risk factors for survival were examined. It was found that non-Hispanic blacks have higher incidence and mortality from prostate cancer than non-Hispanic whites, and that Hispanics and non-Hispanic Asians are roughly similar to non-Hispanic whites in cancer survival. The incidence rates in non-Hispanic whites were spread more evenly across the age spectrum compared to other racial and ethnic groups. Non-Hispanic blacks were more often diagnosed at a higher stage of disease. All racial and ethnic groups in the Registry had lower death rates from non-prostate cancer causes than non-Hispanic whites. Age, stage and grade all conferred about the same relative risks of all-cause and prostate cancer survival within each racial and ethnic group examined. Radiation treatment for non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics did not confer a relative risk of survival statistically significantly different from surgery, whereas it conferred greater survival in non-Hispanic whites. However, non-Hispanic blacks were statistically significantly less likely to have received radiation treatment, while controlling for age, stage, and grade. Among only those who died of prostate cancer, non-Hispanic blacks were less likely to have received radiation than were non-Hispanic whites, whereas among those who had not died, non-Hispanic blacks were more likely to have received this treatment. Hispanics were less likely to have received radiation whether they died from prostate cancer or not. All racial and ethnic groups were less likely than Non-Hispanic whites to have received surgery. Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to have received hormonal treatment. The findings are interpreted with caution with regard to the limitations of data quality and missing information. Results are discussed in the context of previous work, and public health implications are pondered. This study confirms some earlier findings, identifies treatment as one possible source of disparity in prostate cancer mortality, and contributes to understanding the epidemiology of prostate cancer in Hispanics. ^

Tp53-dependent repression of cell cycle target genes: Global and mechanistic analysis

Most studies of p53 function have focused on genes transactivated by p53. It is less widely appreciated that p53 can repress target genes to affect a particular cellular response. There is evidence that repression is important for p53-induced apoptosis and cell cycle arrest. It is less clear if repression is important for other p53 functions. A comprehensive knowledge of the genes repressed by p53 and the cellular processes they affect is currently lacking. We used an expression profiling strategy to identify p53-responsive genes following adenoviral p53 gene transfer (Ad-p53) in PC3 prostate cancer cells. A total of 111 genes represented on the Affymetrix U133A microarray were repressed more than two fold (p ≤ 0.05) by p53. An objective assessment of array data quality was carried out using RT-PCR of 20 randomly selected genes. We estimate a confirmation rate of >95.5% for the complete data set. Functional over-representation analysis was used to identify cellular processes potentially affected by p53-mediated repression. Cell cycle regulatory genes exhibited significant enrichment (p ≤ 5E-28) within the repressed targets. Several of these genes are repressed in a p53-dependent manner following DNA damage, but preceding cell cycle arrest. These findings identify novel p53-repressed targets and indicate that p53-induced cell cycle arrest is a function of not only the transactivation of cell cycle inhibitors (e.g., p21), but also the repression of targets that act at each phase of the cell cycle. The mechanism of repression of this set of p53 targets was investigated. Most of the repressed genes identified here do not harbor consensus p53 DNA binding sites but do contain binding sites for E2F transcription factors. We demonstrate a role for E2F/RB repressor complexes in our system. Importantly, p53 is found at the promoter of CDC25A. CDC25A protein is rapidly degraded in response to DNA damage. Our group has demonstrated for the first time that CDC25A is also repressed at the transcript level by p53. This work has important implications for understanding the DNA damage cell cycle checkpoint response and the link between E2F/RB complexes and p53 in the repression of target genes. ^

Process evaluation of the Texas occupational safety & health surveillance system

Introduction: The Texas Occupational Safety & Health Surveillance System (TOSHSS) was created to collect, analyze and interpret occupational injury and illness data in order to decrease the impact of occupational injuries within the state of Texas. This process evaluation was performed midway through the 4-year grant to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of the surveillance system’s planning and implementation activities1. ^ Methods: Two evaluation guidelines published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were used as the theoretical models for this process evaluation. The Framework for Program Evaluation in Public Health was used to examine the planning and design of TOSHSS using logic models. The Framework for Evaluating Public Health Surveillance Systems was used to examine the implementation of approximately 60 surveillance activities, including uses of the data obtained from the surveillance system. ^ Results/Discussion: TOSHSS planning activities omitted the creation of a scientific advisory committee and specific activities designed to maintain contacts with stakeholders; and proposed activities should be reassessed and aligned with ongoing performance measurement criteria, including the role of collaborators in helping the surveillance system achieve each proposed activity. TOSHSS implementation activities are substantially meeting expectations and received an overall score of 61% for all activities being performed. TOSHSS is considered a surveillance system that is simple, flexible, acceptable, fairly stable, timely, moderately useful, with good data quality and a PVP of 86%. ^ Conclusions: Through the third year of TOSHSS implementation, the surveillance system is has made a considerable contribution to the collection of occupational injury and illness information within the state of Texas. Implementation of the nine recommendations provided under this process evaluation is expected to increase the overall usefulness of the surveillance system and assist TDSHS in reducing occupational fatalities, injuries, and diseases within the state of Texas. ^ 1 Disclaimer: The Texas Occupational Safety and Health Surveillance System is supported by Grant/Cooperative Agreement Number (U60 OH008473-01A1). The content of the current evaluation are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.^