The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM General Circulation Model

We demonstrate that summer precipitation biases in the South Asian monsoon domain are sensitive to increasing the convective parametrisation’s entrainment and detrainment rates in the Met Office Unified Model. We explore this sensitivity to improve our understanding of the biases and inform efforts to improve convective parametrisation. We perform novel targeted experiments in which we increase the entrainment and detrainment rates in regions of especially large precipitation bias. We use these experiments to determine whether the sensitivity at a given location is a consequence of the local change to convection or is a remote response to the change elsewhere. We find that a local change leads to different mean-state responses in comparable regions. When the entrainment and detrainment rates are increased globally, feedbacks between regions usually strengthen the local responses. We choose two regions of tropical ascent that show different mean-state responses, the western equatorial Indian Ocean and western north Pacific, and analyse them as case studies to determine the mechanisms leading to the different responses. Our results indicate that several aspects of a region’s mean-state, including moisture content, sea surface temperature and circulation, play a role in local feedbacks that determine the response to increased entrainment and detrainment.

Mixing length controls on high resolution simulations of convective storms

We perform simulations of several convective events over the southern UK with the Met Office Unified Model (UM) at horizontal grid lengths ranging from 1.5 km to 200 m. Comparing the simulated storms on these days with the Met Office rainfall radar network allows us to apply a statistical approach to evaluate the properties and evolution of the simulated storms over a range of conditions. Here we present results comparing the storm morphology in the model and reality which show that the simulated storms become smaller as grid length decreases and that the grid length that fits the observations best changes with the size of the observed cells. We investigate the sensitivity of storm morphology in the model to the mixing length used in the subgrid turbulence scheme. As the subgrid mixing length is decreased, the number of small storms with high area-averaged rain rates increases. We show that by changing the mixing length we can produce a lower resolution simulation that produces similar morphologies to a higher resolution simulation.

The three-dimensional morphology of simulated and observed convective storms over southern England

A set of high-resolution radar observations of convective storms has been collected to evaluate such storms in the UK Met Office Unified Model during the DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms). The 3-GHz Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar was set up with a scan-scheduling algorithm to automatically track convective storms identified in real-time from the operational rainfall radar network. More than 1,000 storm observations gathered over fifteen days in 2011 and 2012 are used to evaluate the model under various synoptic conditions supporting convection. In terms of the detailed three-dimensional morphology, storms in the 1500-m grid-length simulations are shown to produce horizontal structures a factor 1.5–2 wider compared to radar observations. A set of nested model runs at grid lengths down to 100m show that the models converge in terms of storm width, but the storm structures in the simulations with the smallest grid lengths are too narrow and too intense compared to the radar observations. The modelled storms were surrounded by a region of drizzle without ice reflectivities above 0 dBZ aloft, which was related to the dominance of ice crystals and was improved by allowing only aggregates as an ice particle habit. Simulations with graupel outperformed the standard configuration for heavy-rain profiles, but the storm structures were a factor 2 too wide and the convective cores 2 km too deep.

Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective banding

Quasi-stationary convective bands can cause large localised rainfall accumulations and are often anchored by topographic features. Here, the predictability of and mechanisms causing one such band are determined using ensembles of the Met Office Unified Model at convection-permitting resolution (1.5 km grid length). The band was stationary over the UK for 3 h and produced rainfall accumulations of up to 34 mm. The amount and location of the predicted rainfall was highly variable despite only small differences between the large-scale conditions of the ensemble members. Only three of 21 members of the control ensemble produced a stationary rain band; these three had the weakest upstream winds and hence lowest Froude number. Band formation was due to the superposition of two processes: lee-side convergence resulting from flow around an upstream obstacle and thermally forced convergence resulting from elevated heating over the upstream terrain. Both mechanisms were enhanced when the Froude number was lower. By increasing the terrain height (thus reducing the Froude number), the band became more predictable. An ensemble approach is required to successfully predict the possible occurrence of such quasi-stationary convective events because the rainfall variability is largely modulated by small variations of the large-scale flow. However, high-resolution models are required to accurately resolve the small-scale interactions of the flow with the topography upon which the band formation depends. Thus, although topography provides some predictability, the quasi-stationary convective bands anchored by it are likely to remain a forecasting challenge for many years to come.

Meteorological forcing data for urban outdoor thermal comfort models from a coupled convective boundary layer and surface energy balance scheme

Site-specific meteorological forcing appropriate for applications such as urban outdoor thermal comfort simulations can be obtained using a newly coupled scheme that combines a simple slab convective boundary layer (CBL) model and urban land surface model (ULSM) (here two ULSMs are considered). The former simulates daytime CBL height, air temperature and humidity, and the latter estimates urban surface energy and water balance fluxes accounting for changes in land surface cover. The coupled models are tested at a suburban site and two rural sites, one irrigated and one unirrigated grass, in Sacramento, U.S.A. All the variables modelled compare well to measurements (e.g. coefficient of determination = 0.97 and root mean square error = 1.5 °C for air temperature). The current version is applicable to daytime conditions and needs initial state conditions for the CBL model in the appropriate range to obtain the required performance. The coupled model allows routine observations from distant sites (e.g. rural, airport) to be used to predict air temperature and relative humidity in an urban area of interest. This simple model, which can be rapidly applied, could provide urban data for applications such as air quality forecasting and building energy modelling, in addition to outdoor thermal comfort.

Relationship of dayside auroral precipitations to the open-closed separatrix and the pattern of convective flow

The implications are discussed of acceleration of magnetospheric ions by reflection off two magnetopause Alfvén waves, launched by the reconnection site into the inflow regions on both sides of the boundary. The effects of these waves on the ion populations, predicted using the model described by Lockwood et al. [1996], offer a physical interpretation of all the various widely used classifications of precipitation into the dayside ionosphere, namely, central plasma sheet, dayside boundary plasma sheet (BPS), void, low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), cusp, mantle, and polar cap. The location of the open-closed boundary and the form of the convection flow pattern are discussed in relation to the regions in which these various precipitations are typically found. Specifically, the model predicts that both the LLBL and the dayside BPS precipitations are on newly opened field lines and places the convection reversal within the LLBL, as is often observed. It is shown that this offers solutions to a number of paradoxes and problems that arise if the LLBL and BPS precipitations are thought of as being on closed field lines. This model is also used to make quantitive predictions of the longitudinal extent and latitudinal width of the cusp, as a function of solar wind density.

Dependence of convective flows and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere on theXandYcomponents of the interplanetary magnetic field

The asymmetries in the convective flows, current systems, and particle precipitation in the high-latitude dayside ionosphere which are related to the equatorial plane components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are discussed in relation to the results of several recent observational studies. It is argued that all of the effects reported to date which are ascribed to the y component of the IMF can be understood, at least qualitatively, in terms of a simple theoretical picture in which the effects result from the stresses exerted on the magnetosphere consequent on the interconnection of terrestrial and interplanetary fields. In particular, relaxation under the action of these stresses allows, in effect, a partial penetration of the IMF into the magnetospheric cavity, such that the sense of the expected asymmetry effects on closed field lines can be understood, to zeroth order, in terms of the “dipole plus uniform field” model. In particular, in response to IMF By, the dayside cusp should be displaced in longitude about noon in the same sense as By in the northern hemisphere, and in the opposite sense to By in the southern hemisphere, while simultaneously the auroral oval as a whole should be shifted in the dawn-dusk direction in the opposite sense with respect to By. These expected displacements are found to be consistent with recently published observations. Similar considerations lead to the suggestion that the auroral oval may also undergo displacements in the noon-midnight direction which are associated with the x component of the IMF. We show that a previously published study of the position of the auroral oval contains strong initial evidence for the existence of this effect. However, recent results on variations in the latitude of the cusp are more ambiguous. This topic therefore requires further study before definitive conclusions can be drawn.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

Observations on the flight paths of the day-flying moth Virbia lamae during periods of mate location: do males have a strategy for contacting the pheromone plume?

1. To maximize the probability of rapid contact with a female’s pheromone plume, the trajectories of male foraging flights might be expected to be directed with respect to wind flow and also to be energetically efficient. 2. Flights directed either upwind, downwind, or crosswind have been proposed as optimal strategies for rapid and/or energetically efficient plume contact. Other possible strategies are random and Lévy walks, which have trajectories and turn frequencies that are not dictated by the direction of wind flow. 3. The planar flight paths of males of the day-active moth Virbia lamae were recorded during the customary time of its sexual activity. 4. We found no directional preference in these foraging flights with respect to the direction of contemporaneous wind flow, but, because crosswind encompasses twice the possible orientations of either upwind or downwind, a random orientation is in effect a de facto crosswind strategy. 5. A crosswind preference should be favoured when the plume extends farther downwind than crosswind, and this strategy is realized by V. lamae males by a random orientation of their trajectories with respect to current wind direction

The plume also rises: trajectories of pheromone plumes issuing from point sources in an orchard canopy at night

The trajectories of pheromone plumes in canopied habitats, such as orchards, have been little studied. We documented the capture of male navel orangeworm moths, Amyelois transitella, in female-baited traps positioned at 5 levels, from ground level to the canopy top, at approximately 6 m above ground, in almond orchards. Males were captured in similar proportions at all levels, suggesting that they do not favor a particular height during ranging flight. A 3-D sonic anemometer was used to establish patterns of wind flow and temperature at 6 heights from 2.08 to 6.65 m in an almond orchard with a 5 m high canopy, every 3 h over 72 h. The horizontal velocity of wind flow was highest above the canopy, where its directionality also was the most consistent. During the time of A. transitella mating (0300–0600), there was a net vertical displacement upward. Vertical buoyancy combined with only minor reductions in the distance that plumes will travel in the lower compared to the upper canopy suggest that the optimal height for release of pheromone from high-release-rate sources, such as aerosol dispensers (“puffers”), that are deployed at low densities (e.g., 3 per ha.) would be at mid or low in the canopy, thereby facilitating dispersion of disruptant throughout the canopy. Optimal placement of aerosol dispensers will vary with the behavioral ecology of the target pest; however, our results suggest that current protocols, which generally propose dispenser placement in the upper third of the canopy, should be reevaluated.

Transport of the smoke plume from Chiado’s fire in Lisbon (Portugal) sensed by atmospheric electric field measurements

The Chiado’s fire that affected the city centre of Lisbon (Portugal) occurred on 25th August 1988 and had a significant human and environmental impact. This fire was considered the most significant hazard to have occurred in Lisbon city centre after the major earthquake of 1755. A clear signature of this fire is found in the atmospheric electric field data recorded at Portela meteorological station about 8 km NE from the site where the fire started at Chiado. Measurements were made using a Benndorf electrograph with a probe at 1 m height. The atmospheric electric field reached 510 V/m when the wind direction was coming from SW to NE, favourable to the transport of the smoke plume from Chiado to Portela. Such observations agree with predictions using Hysplit air mass trajectory modelling and have been used to estimate the smoke concentration to be ~0.4 mg/m3. It is demonstrated that atmospheric electric field measurements were therefore extremely sensitive to Chiado’s fire. This result is of particular current interest in using networks of atmospheric electric field sensors to complement existing optical and meteorological observations for fire monitoring.

Convective updraught evaluation in high-resolution NWP simulations using single-Doppler radar measurements

This study presents an evaluation of the size and strength of convective updraughts in high-resolution simulations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). Updraught velocities have been estimated from range–height indicator (RHI) Doppler velocity measurements using the Chilbolton advanced meteorological radar, as part of the Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (DYMECS) project. Based on mass continuity and the vertical integration of the observed radial convergence, vertical velocities tend to be underestimated for convective clouds due to the undetected cross-radial convergence. Velocity fields from the UM at a resolution corresponding to the radar observations are used to scale such estimates to mitigate the inherent biases. The analysis of more than 100 observed and simulated storms indicates that the horizontal scale of updraughts in simulations tend to decrease with grid length; the 200 m grid length agreed most closely with the observations. Typical updraught mass fluxes in the 500 m grid length simulations were up to an order of magnitude greater than observed, and greater still in the 1.5 km grid length simulations. The effect of increasing the mixing length in the sub-grid turbulence scheme depends on the grid length. For the 1.5 km simulations, updraughts were weakened though their horizontal scale remained largely unchanged. Progressively more so for the sub-kilometre grid lengths, updraughts were broadened and intensified; horizontal scale was now determined by the mixing length rather than the grid length. In general, simulated updraughts were found to weaken too quickly with height. The findings were supported by the analysis of the widths of reflectivity patterns in both the simulations and observations.

Sea-breeze dynamics and convection initiation: the influence of convective parameterization in weather and climate model biases

There are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis shows that, although the simulation with parameterized convection is able to reproduce the key rain-forming sea-breeze circulation, the parameterization is not able to respond realistically to the circulation. A feedback of errors also occurs: the convective parameterization causes rain to fall in the early morning, which cools and wets the boundary layer, reducing the land–sea temperature contrast and weakening the sea breeze. This is, however, an effect of the convective bias, rather than a cause of it. Improvements to how and when convection schemes trigger convection will improve both the timing and location of tropical rainfall and representation of sea-breeze circulations.

Generalized convective quasi-equilibrium principle

A generalization of Arakawa and Schubert's convective quasi-equilibrium principle is presented for a closure formulation of mass-flux convection parameterization. The original principle is based on the budget of the cloud work function. This principle is generalized by considering the budget for a vertical integral of an arbitrary convection-related quantity. The closure formulation includes Arakawa and Schubert's quasi-equilibrium, as well as both CAPE and moisture closures as special cases. The formulation also includes new possibilities for considering vertical integrals that are dependent on convective-scale variables, such as the moisture within convection. The generalized convective quasi-equilibrium is defined by a balance between large-scale forcing and convective response for a given vertically-integrated quantity. The latter takes the form of a convolution of a kernel matrix and a mass-flux spectrum, as in the original convective quasi-equilibrium. The kernel reduces to a scalar when either a bulk formulation is adopted, or only large-scale variables are considered within the vertical integral. Various physical implications of the generalized closure are discussed. These include the possibility that precipitation might be considered as a potentially-significant contribution to the large-scale forcing. Two dicta are proposed as guiding physical principles for the specifying a suitable vertically-integrated quantity.