Variational ensemble Kalman filtering applied to data assimilation problems in computational fluid dynamics

One challenge on data assimilation (DA) methods is how the error covariance for the model state is computed. Ensemble methods have been proposed for producing error covariance estimates, as error is propagated in time using the non-linear model. Variational methods, on the other hand, use the concepts of control theory, whereby the state estimate is optimized from both the background and the measurements. Numerical optimization schemes are applied which solve the problem of memory storage and huge matrix inversion needed by classical Kalman filter methods. Variational Ensemble Kalman filter (VEnKF), as a method inspired the Variational Kalman Filter (VKF), enjoys the benefits from both ensemble methods and variational methods. It avoids filter inbreeding problems which emerge when the ensemble spread underestimates the true error covariance. In VEnKF this is tackled by resampling the ensemble every time measurements are available. One advantage of VEnKF over VKF is that it needs neither tangent linear code nor adjoint code. In this thesis, VEnKF has been applied to a two-dimensional shallow water model simulating a dam-break experiment. The model is a public code with water height measurements recorded in seven stations along the 21:2 m long 1:4 m wide flume’s mid-line. Because the data were too sparse to assimilate the 30 171 model state vector, we chose to interpolate the data both in time and in space. The results of the assimilation were compared with that of a pure simulation. We have found that the results revealed by the VEnKF were more realistic, without numerical artifacts present in the pure simulation. Creating a wrapper code for a model and DA scheme might be challenging, especially when the two were designed independently or are poorly documented. In this thesis we have presented a non-intrusive approach of coupling the model and a DA scheme. An external program is used to send and receive information between the model and DA procedure using files. The advantage of this method is that the model code changes needed are minimal, only a few lines which facilitate input and output. Apart from being simple to coupling, the approach can be employed even if the two were written in different programming languages, because the communication is not through code. The non-intrusive approach is made to accommodate parallel computing by just telling the control program to wait until all the processes have ended before the DA procedure is invoked. It is worth mentioning the overhead increase caused by the approach, as at every assimilation cycle both the model and the DA procedure have to be initialized. Nonetheless, the method can be an ideal approach for a benchmark platform in testing DA methods. The non-intrusive VEnKF has been applied to a multi-purpose hydrodynamic model COHERENS to assimilate Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi. The lake has an area of 154 km2 with an average depth of 5:4 m. Turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentrations from MERIS satellite images for 7 days between May 16 and July 6 2009 were available. The effect of the organic matter has been computationally eliminated to obtain TSM data. Because of computational demands from both COHERENS and VEnKF, we have chosen to use 1 km grid resolution. The results of the VEnKF have been compared with the measurements recorded at an automatic station located at the North-Western part of the lake. However, due to TSM data sparsity in both time and space, it could not be well matched. The use of multiple automatic stations with real time data is important to elude the time sparsity problem. With DA, this will help in better understanding the environmental hazard variables for instance. We have found that using a very high ensemble size does not necessarily improve the results, because there is a limit whereby additional ensemble members add very little to the performance. Successful implementation of the non-intrusive VEnKF and the ensemble size limit for performance leads to an emerging area of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). To save computational resources, running full-blown model in ROM is avoided. When the ROM is applied with the non-intrusive DA approach, it might result in a cheaper algorithm that will relax computation challenges existing in the field of modelling and DA.

Shortcuts to adiabaticity in the double well

123 p.

Estudo comparativo do desempenho de controladores robustos aplicados a um sistema de tanques acoplados.

Currently the uncertain system has attracted much academic community from the standpoint of scientific research and also practical applications. A series of mathematical approaches emerge in order to troubleshoot the uncertainties of real physical systems. In this context, the work presented here focuses on the application of control theory in a nonlinear dynamical system with parametric variations in order and robustness. We used as the practical application of this work, a system of tanks Quanser associates, in a configuration, whose mathematical model is represented by a second order system with input and output (SISO). The control system is performed by PID controllers, designed by various techniques, aiming to achieve robust performance and stability when subjected to parameter variations. Other controllers are designed with the intention of comparing the performance and robust stability of such systems. The results are obtained and compared from simulations in Matlab-simulink.

Étude de la dynamique du ferrofluide appliquée sur une surface générée par plusieurs actionneurs

Le sujet de cette thèse est la caractérisation dynamique d’une surface générée par plusieurs actionneurs d’un miroir ferrofluidique intégré dans un montage d’optique adaptative. Elle conclut un projet de doctorat au sein du groupe Borra s’étant échelonné sur 4 années. Un bref portrait général de l’optique adaptative est d’abord présenté, suivi d’une section sur la théorie du contrôle. Les types de contrôleurs y sont abordés, soit PID et surcharge. L’effet de la viscosité sur la réponse dynamique du système, ainsi que les analyseurs de front d’onde utilisés sont ensuite expliqués. La section résultats est subdivisée en plusieurs sous-sections ordonnées de façon chronologique. Dans un premier temps, il est question des résultats obtenus dans le cadre d’une caractérisation d’un nouveau miroir de 91 actionneurs fabriqué au sein du groupe. Il est ensuite question des résultats obtenus avec diverses techniques telles le PSD et l’imagerie déclenchée. Il y aura toute une section sur les résultats en vitesse, en fonction de la viscosité du liquide, suivie d’une section sur les simulations réalisées avec Simulink afin de bien cibler les limites du système. Les résultats portant sur la technique de surcharge des actionneurs seront ensuite présentés avec des projections futures. La dernière partie de cette thèse portera sur une innovation apportée par un autre membre du groupe. Nous parlerons de la déposition d’une membrane élastomère réfléchissante et de ses effets sur la dynamique du système.

Development of Optimal Energy Management Strategies for a Hybrid Boat

The present work proposes different approaches to extend the mathematical methods of supervisory energy management used in terrestrial environments to the maritime sector, that diverges in constraints, variables and disturbances. The aim is to find the optimal real-time solution that includes the minimization of a defined track time, while maintaining the classical energetic approach. Starting from analyzing and modelling the powertrain and boat dynamics, the energy economy problem formulation is done, following the mathematical principles behind the optimal control theory. Then, an adaptation aimed in finding a winning strategy for the Monaco Energy Boat Challenge endurance trial is performed via ECMS and A-ECMS control strategies, which lead to a more accurate knowledge of energy sources and boat’s behaviour. The simulations show that the algorithm accomplishes fuel economy and time optimization targets, but the latter adds huge tuning and calculation complexity. In order to assess a practical implementation on real hardware, the knowledge of the previous approaches has been translated into a rule-based algorithm, that let it be run on an embedded CPU. Finally, the algorithm has been tuned and tested in a real-world race scenario, showing promising results.

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology

Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

Experimental results on the nonlinear H(infinity) control via quasi-LPV representation and game theory for wheeled mobile robots

In this paper, nonlinear dynamic equations of a wheeled mobile robot are described in the state-space form where the parameters are part of the state (angular velocities of the wheels). This representation, known as quasi-linear parameter varying, is useful for control designs based on nonlinear H(infinity) approaches. Two nonlinear H(infinity) controllers that guarantee induced L(2)-norm, between input (disturbances) and output signals, bounded by an attenuation level gamma, are used to control a wheeled mobile robot. These controllers are solved via linear matrix inequalities and algebraic Riccati equation. Experimental results are presented, with a comparative study among these robust control strategies and the standard computed torque, plus proportional-derivative, controller.

Venture capital meets contract theory: risky claims or formal control?

This paper develops a theory of the joint allocation of formal control and cash-flow rights in venture capital deals. We argue that when the need for investor support calls for very high-powered outside claims, entrepreneurs should optimally retain formal control in order to avoid excessive interference. Hence, we predict that risky claims should be be negatively correlated to control rights, both along the life of a start-up and across deals. This challenges the idea that risky claims should a ways be associated to more formal control, and is in line with contractual terms increasingly used in venture capital, in corporate venturing and in partnership deals between biotech start-ups and large drug companies. The paper provides a theoretical explanation to some puzzling evidence documented in Gompers (1997) and Kaplan and Stromberg (2000), namely the inclusion in venture capital contracts of contingencies that trigger both a reduction in VC control and the conversion! of her preferred stocks into common stocks.

Field Sales Management Control: Towards a Multi-Level Theory

The purpose of this dissertation is to increase the understanding and knowledge of field sales management control systems (i.e. sales managers monitoring, directing, evaluating and rewarding activities) and their potential consequences on salespeople. This topic is important because research conducted in the past has indicated that the choice of control system type can on the other hand have desirable consequences, such as high levels of motivation and performance, and on the other hand leadto harmful unintended consequences, such as opportunistic or unethical behaviors. Despite the fact that marketing and sales management control systems have been under rigorous research for over two decades, it still is at a very early stage of development, and several inconsistencies can be found in the research results. This dissertation argues that these inconsistencies are mainly derived from misspecification of the level of analysis in the past research. These different levels of analysis (i.e. strategic, tactical, and operational levels) involve very different decision-making situations regarding the control and motivation of sales force, which should be taken into consideration when conceptualizing the control. Moreover, the study of salesperson consequences of a field sales management control system is actually a cross-level phenomenon, which means that at least two levels of analysis are simultaneously involved. The results of this dissertation confirm the need to re-conceptualize the field sales management control system concept. It provides empirical evidence for the assertion that control should be conceptualized with more details atthe tactical/operational level of analysis than at the strategic levelof analysis. Moreover, the results show that some controls are more efficiently communicated to field salespeople than others. It is proposed that this difference is due to different purposes of control; some controls aredesigned for influencing salespersons' behavior (aim at motivating) whereas some controls are designed to aid decision-making (aim at providing information). According to the empirical results of this dissertation, the both types of controls have an impact to the sales force, but this impactis not as strong as expected. The results obtained in this dissertation shed some light to the nature of field sales management control systems, and their consequences on salespeopl

Reactive Control for Transmission Overload Relief Based on Sensitivity Analysis and Cooperative Game Theory

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Multi-task control strategy for grid-tied inverters based on conservative power theory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Coordination and Control of Autonomous Mobile Robots Swarms by using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Consensus Theory

This thesis presents some different techniques designed to drive a swarm of robots in an a-priori unknown environment in order to move the group from a starting area to a final one avoiding obstacles. The presented techniques are based on two different theories used alone or in combination: Swarm Intelligence (SI) and Graph Theory. Both theories are based on the study of interactions between different entities (also called agents or units) in Multi- Agent Systems (MAS). The first one belongs to the Artificial Intelligence context and the second one to the Distributed Systems context. These theories, each one from its own point of view, exploit the emergent behaviour that comes from the interactive work of the entities, in order to achieve a common goal. The features of flexibility and adaptability of the swarm have been exploited with the aim to overcome and to minimize difficulties and problems that can affect one or more units of the group, having minimal impact to the whole group and to the common main target. Another aim of this work is to show the importance of the information shared between the units of the group, such as the communication topology, because it helps to maintain the environmental information, detected by each single agent, updated among the swarm. Swarm Intelligence has been applied to the presented technique, through the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO), taking advantage of its features as a navigation system. The Graph Theory has been applied by exploiting Consensus and the application of the agreement protocol with the aim to maintain the units in a desired and controlled formation. This approach has been followed in order to conserve the power of PSO and to control part of its random behaviour with a distributed control algorithm like Consensus.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

A contingency theory perspective on the risk management control system within Birmingham City Council

In recent years the topic of risk management has moved up the agenda of both government and industry, and private sector initiatives to improve risk and internal control systems have been mirrored by similar promptings for change in the public sector. Both regulators and practitioners now view risk management as an integral part of the process of corporate governance, and an aid to the achievement of strategic objectives. The paper uses case study material on the risk management control system at Birmingham City Council to extend existing theory by developing a contingency theory for the public sector. The case demonstrates that whilst the structure of the control system fits a generic model, the operational details indicate that controls are contingent upon three core variables—central government policies, information and communication technology and organisational size. All three contingent variables are suitable for testing the theory across the broader public sector arena.