An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Diving behaviour of two Australian bimodally respiring turtles, Rheodytes leukops and Emydura macquarii, in a natural setting

Time-depth recorders were used to investigate the diving performance and behaviour of two bimodally respiring turtle species, Rheodytes leukops and Emydura niacquarii, known to have a high and low reliance on aquatic respiration, respectively. Significant differences in diving performance between R. leukops and E. macquarii were observed in the number of dives/day (39.3 +/- 5.38 vs 112.2 +/- 11.73 dives/day; mean +/- SE), mean dive length (33.1 +/- 7.33 min vs 9.6 +/- 2.26 min) and maximum dive length (623 +/- 104.74 min vs 67.1 +/- 8.14 min), respectively. Differences in diving performance between R. leukops and E macquarii are attributed to the species' reliance (or lack thereof) upon aquatic respiration. Rheodytes leukops displayed a weak bimodal pattern of increased surfacing frequency in the early morning (05:00-07:00) and late afternoon (14:00-18:00), while E. macquarii displayed a strong bimodal pattern of elevated surfacing frequency over similar time periods. Daily patterns of increased surfacing frequency for both species failed to correlate with fluctuating aquatic Po-2 levels or water temperature, and may instead be explained by the heightened activity levels of both species during twilight.

Optimising cleaning behaviour: minimising the costs and maximising ectoparasite removal

Little is known of how client fish minimise the costs of cleaning behaviour while maximising ectoparasite removal by cleaner fish. Previous studies have found that abundance on fish and infestation behaviour of gnathiid isopods, the main parasite eaten by cleaner fish, varies diurnally. We examined whether reduced foraging is a cost of cleaning behaviour in clients and whether the behaviour of the client fish, the thick-lipped wrasse Hemigymnus melapterus, towards the cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus varied diurnally to maximise ectoparasite removal, possibly in response to the diurnal changes in the abundance and infestation patterns of gnathiids. We found that during the midday and afternoon, client foraging rates were negatively related to the duration and frequency of inspections, suggesting that cleaning may, at some times of the day, be energetically costly to the client in terms of reduced foraging opportunities. Surprisingly, we found that the duration and frequency of inspections of clients by cleaners did not vary among diel time periods. A model of gnathiid dynamics on individual fish is proposed. It shows that the observed diurnal pattern in gnathiid abundance on fish can be generated with the constant duration and frequency of inspections that was observed in this study. Thus clients would not have more gnathiids removed by modifying their cleaning behaviour.

Parasite distribution on client reef fish determines cleaner fish foraging patterns

Recent evidence suggests that cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus effectively control parasite densities on client reef fish that actively visit them to have parasites and dead or infected tissue removed. These findings support the hypothesis that clients benefit from cleaning, However, they do not show how cleaners reduce the parasite load of their clients. Cleaners could selectively feed on parasites or parasite removal could be a side product of cleaners foraging indifferently on the client surface, resulting in the removal of healthy mucus and scales also. To investigate cleaner fish foraging behaviour, we infected individuals of the surgeon fish Ctenochaetus striatus, with parasitic monogeneans on one body side, while the other body side was parasite free. We then allowed these clients to interact with L, dimidiatus. We found that the duration of interactions depended on parasite load, and that cleaners spent both more time and took more bites per time unit on the infected than on the uninfected side, Our data thus support the idea that parasite abundance determines food patch quality for cleaners. The overall outcome of cleaning interactions is thus likely to benefit the clients.

Behaviour of the black flying fox Pteropus alecto: 1. An ethogram of behaviour, and preliminary characterisation of mother-infant interactions

The black flying fox Pteropus alecto is one of four species of flying fox found on the Australian mainland. Little information exists about the specific behaviour of this species, and no framework for the study of its behaviour has yet been constructed. In the study reported here, two P alecto colonies were observed at two day roosts in South East Queensland, Australia, between 1998-2000. Observations focused on solitary and social actions in general and on mother-infant interactions in some detail and led to the construction of an ethogram that defines each action structurally and functionally, describing accompanying vocalisations where appropriate. Diurnal activity patterns of P. alecto throughout the year consisted predominantly of roosting, grooming and sleeping, and involved little social activity. Social interactions were largely restricted to the seasonal contexts of the birthing/rearing period of October to March and the subsequent courtship/mating season of February to April. In all, 74 behavioural units were defined with the aim of facilitating further research and the implementation of effective conservation strategies for the species.

Spoilage patterns of skim and whole milks

The reason for the reported difference in spoilage behaviour of skim and whole pasteurised milks was investigated The rates of growth of psychrotrophic bacteria were not significantly different in the two milks and the bacterial types. till pseudomonad, present at spoilage were also similar. However. when representative spoilage organisms were cultured into freshly pasteurised skim and whole milks, skim milks exhibited predominantly bitter flavours while whole milk showed mostly sour flavours. The different spoilage, behaviours can be largely explained by greater proteolysis in skim milk than in whole milk. caused by, higher production of protease and greater susceptibility of the protein to protease attack. In addition, lipolysis in whole milk, caused by the substantial quantities of lipase produced by spoilage pseudomonads in this milk. also contributes to the different flavours produced during cold storage of these milk types.

Dispersal patterns in a regional koala population in south-east Queensland

Koala dispersal was investigated as part of a detailed ecological study of a nationally significant koala population located 20 km south-east of Brisbane, Queensland. From 1996 to 2000, 195 koalas from three sites were captured and fitted with radio-collars. A total of 40 koalas ( 23 males and 17 females) dispersed from these sites. Most (93%) dispersing individuals were 20 - 36 months of age. Three adult females ( more than 36 months old) dispersed and no adult males dispersed during the study. A significantly higher proportion of young males dispersed than females. Dispersal occurred between June and December, with most dispersal of males commencing in July and August and that of females commencing between September and November prior to, and early in, the annual breeding season. The mean straight-line distance between the natal and breeding home ranges for males and females was similar and was measured at 3.5 km ( range 1.1 - 9.7 km) and 3.4 km ( range 0.3 - 10.6 km) respectively. Dispersing males and females tended to successfully disperse south and west of their natal home ranges and were generally unable to successfully disperse to urban areas within the study area, as a high proportion of the mortality of dispersing koalas was associated with attacks by domestic dogs and with collisions with vehicles on roads. Information from other studies indicates that most young koalas disperse from their natal areas. It is likely that the social behaviour and mating systems of koala populations provide mechanisms for young koalas to disperse. The potential role of dispersal in the dynamics of regional koala populations is discussed.

Influence of discount price announcements on consumer's behavior

The theoretical framework that underpins this research study is based on the Prospect Theory formulated by Kahneman and Tversky, and Thaler's Mental Accounting Theory. The research aims to evaluate the consumers' behavior when different patterns of discount are offered (in percentage and absolute value and for larger and smaller discounts). Two experiments were conducted to explore these patterns of behavior and the results that were obtained supported the view that the framing effect was a common occurrence. The patterns of choice of individuals in a sample were found to be different due to changes in the ways discounts were offered. This can be explained by the various ways of presenting discount rates that had an impact on the influence of purchase intentions, recommendations and quality perception.

Knowledge extraction from medium voltage load diagrams to support the definition of electrical tariffs

With the electricity market liberalization, distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity customers. In this environment all consumers are free to choose their electricity supplier. A fair insight on the customer´s behaviour will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In this paper Data Mining (DM) techniques are applied to electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database. To form the different customer´s classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns, we have used the Two-Step algorithm which is a hierarchical clustering algorithm. Each consumer class will be represented by its load profile resulting from the clustering operation. Next, to characterize each consumer class a classification model will be constructed with the C5.0 classification algorithm.

Water-contact patterns and schistosoma mansoni infection in a rural community in northeast Brazil

We evaluated the influence of water-related human activities, contaminative behaviour, house location, education and socio-economic status on endemic Schistosoma mansoni infection. The study was conducted in a hilry non-irrigated area of rural northeast Brazil amongst a defined population of subsistence farmers, of whom 93% were infected by age 20. The area was mapped, water bodies were surveyed, and a detailed questionnaire was performed on each household. Infection was assessed by duplicate stool examinations using the sensitive Bell technique to quantify egg excretion. For each household, and index of intensity of infection was computed by grouping individual log-transformed egg counts as an age-sex adjusted Z score. Few households had a sanitary installation or a domestic water supply. However, neither water-contact nor contaminative behavior were indiscriminate. The people made considerable effort to defaecate far from a water source, to obtain household drinking water from the cleanest source, and to bathe only at certain sites where privacy is assured. Land ownership and literacy correlated poorly with the household index of intensity of infection. The key influence on infection status was the relative location of the house and snail-free or snail colonized water sources. In this area, a safe domestic water supply is the critical input needed to achieve definitive control of endemic Schistosomiasis.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Patterns in financial markets: Dynamic time warping

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Modelling and Forecasting Mortality Patterns

Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Statistics and Information Management

Dynamics of innovation patterns: some insights for Portugal

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Gestão de Informação

Prescription patterns of pharmaceuticals

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics