Dynamical local models for segmentation and prediction of financial time series

In the analysis and prediction of many real-world time series, the assumption of stationarity is not valid. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We introduce a new model which combines a dynamic switching (controlled by a hidden Markov model) and a non-linear dynamical system. We show how to train this hybrid model in a maximum likelihood approach and evaluate its performance on both synthetic and financial data.

Local government modernisation:UK and comparative analysis from an organizational perspective

This article analyses three strands of local government modernization. The first takes an overview of the development of 'modernization' and 'improvement' of local government in the UK under the Labour government since 1997 and the overall programme of reform. We discuss both the shifts and the continuities with the previous decade and a half of the 'new public management' of Conservative administrations. We examine the implicit assumptions about how to achieve organizational and cultural change, arguing that much modernization is premised on a mechanistic metaphor of organizational change. The second section of the article examines other metaphors and theories of organizational change, arguing for the need to consider institutional and organizational perspectives in analysing local government modernization. The third section of the article then applies some organizational concepts to the comparative analysis of local government modernization.

Modelling the relationship between local logistics management decisions and overall supply chain performance:A research agenda

Supply chains are advocated widely as being the new units for commercial competition and developments have made the sharing of supply chain wide information increasingly common. Most organisations however still make operational decisions intended to maximise local organisational performance. With improved information sharing a holistic focus for operational decisions should now be possible. The development of a pan supply chain performance framework requires an examination of the conditions under which holistic-decisions provide benefits to either the individual enterprise or the complete supply chain. This paper presents the background and supporting methodology for a study of the impact of an overall supply chain performance metric framework upon local logistics decisions and the conditions under which such a framework would improve overall supply chain performance. The methodology concludes a simulation approach using a functionally extended Gensym's e-SCOR model, together with case based triangulation, to be optimum. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

The spatial patterns of beta-amyloid deposits and neurofibrillary tangles in the cerebral cortex in Alzheimer's disease

In Alzheimer's disease (AD) brain, beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) are not randomly distributed but exhibit a spatial pattern, i.e., a departure from randomness towards regularity or clustering. Studies of the spatial pattern of a lesion may contribute to an understanding of its pathogenesis and therefore, of AD itself. This article describes the statistical methods most commonly used to detect the spatial patterns of brain lesions and the types of spatial patterns exhibited by ß-amyloid deposits and NFT in the cerebral cortex in AD. These studies suggest that within the cerebral cortex, Abeta deposits and NFT exhibit a similar spatial pattern, i.e., an aggregation of individual lesions into clusters which are regularly distributed parallel to the pia mater. The location, size and distribution of these clusters supports the hypothesis that AD is a 'disconnection syndrome' in which degeneration of specific cortical pathways results in the formation of clusters of NFT and Abeta deposits. In addition, a model to explain the development of the pathology within the cerebral cortex is proposed.

Optic sensors of high refractive-index responsivity and low thermal cross sensitivity that use fiber Bragg gratings of >80° tilted structures

For the first time to the authors' knowledge, fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) with >80° tilted structures have been fabricated and characterized. Their performance in sensing temperature, strain, and the surrounding medium's refractive index was investigated. In comparison with normal FBGs and long-period gratings (LPGs), >80° tilted FBGs exhibit significantly higher refractive-index responsivity and lower thermal cross sensitivity. When the grating sensor was used to detect changes in refractive index, a responsivity as high as 340nm/refractive-index unit near an index of 1.33 was demonstrated, which is three times higher than that of conventional LPGs.

From local to global: feminist and postcolonial approaches to the relationship between the Antipodes (Galicia-Australia)

Starting from the exploration of the common features related to a postcolonial and feminist analysis, I will attempt to establish new relationships and to open up new perspectives within the cultural exchanges between the two nations, Galicia and Australia, within a global world. On the one hand, this will be new relationships in favour of a non-sexist language which contributes to overcoming gender discrimination; and on the other hand, new relationships which favour a re-evaluation of voices which have been silenced by hegemonic and centralised discourses.

The two forms of visuo-spatial perspective taking are differently embodied and subserve different spatial prepositions

We set out to distinguish level 1 (VPT-1) and level 2 (VPT-2) perspective taking with respect to the embodied nature of the underlying processes as well as to investigate their dependence or independence of response modality (motor vs. verbal). While VPT-1 reflects understanding of what lies within someone else’s line of sight, VPT-2 involves mentally adopting someone else’s spatial point of view. Perspective taking is a high-level conscious and deliberate mental transformation that is crucially placed at the convergence of perception, mental imagery, communication, and even theory of mind in the case of VPT-2. The differences between VPT-1 and VPT-2 mark a qualitative boundary between humans and apes, with the latter being capable of VPT-1 but not of VPT-2. However, our recent data showed that VPT-2 is best conceptualized as the deliberate simulation or emulation of a movement, thus underpinning its embodied origins. In the work presented here we compared VPT-2 to VPT-1 and found that VPT-1 is not at all, or very differently embodied. In a second experiment we replicated the qualitatively different patterns for VPT-1 and VPT-2 with verbal responses that employed spatial prepositions. We conclude that VPT-1 is the cognitive process that subserves verbal localizations using “in front” and “behind,” while VPT-2 subserves “left” and “right” from a perspective other than the egocentric. We further conclude that both processes are grounded and situated, but only VPT-2 is embodied in the form of a deliberate movement simulation that increases in mental effort with distance and incongruent proprioception. The differences in cognitive effort predict differences in the use of the associated prepositions. Our findings, therefore, shed light on the situated, grounded and embodied basis of spatial localizations and on the psychology of their use.

Evaluating local strategic partnerships:theory and practice of change

Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs) are a major recent innovation in English local governance. As the 'partnership of partnerships' in a locality, the ability of the LSP to provide an arena for community leadership and joined up service delivery is vital to the Local Government Modernisation Agenda. Drawing on material from the national evaluation of LSPs, this paper assesses their progress. A theory of change (ToC) approach was adopted in the evaluation, and the paper shows how this approach was developed and utilised. The main findings from the evaluation are then presented and discussed. In conclusion, the article draws some wider conclusions both about the strengths and weaknesses of the ToC approach and about LSPs themselves.

Local economic development initiatives and the transition from training and enterprise councils to new institutional structures in England

Current British government economic development policy emphasises regional and sub-regional scale, multi-agent initiatives that form part of national frameworks to encourage a 'bottom up' approach to economic development. An emphasis on local multi-agent initiatives was also the mission of Training and Enterprise Councils (TECs). Using new survey evidence this article tracks the progress of a number of initiatives established under the TECs, using the TEC Discretionary Fund as an example. It assesses the ability of successor bodies to be more effective in promoting local economic development. Survey evidence is used to confirm that many projects previously set up by the TECs continue to operate successfully under new partnership arrangements. However as new structures have developed, and policy has become more centralized, it is less likely that similar local initiatives will be developed in future. There is evidence to suggest that with the end of the TECs a gap has emerged in the institutional infrastructure for local economic development, particularly with regard to workforce development. Much will depend in future on how the Regional Development Agencies deploy their growing power and resources.

Optic sensors of high refractive-index responsivity and low thermal cross sensitivity that use fiber Bragg gratings of >80° tilted structures

For the first time to the authors' knowledge, fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) with >80° tilted structures nave been fabricated and characterized. Their performance in sensing temperature, strain, and the surrounding medium's refractive index was investigated. In comparison with normal FBGs and long-period gratings (LPGs), >80° tilted FBGs exhibit significantly higher refractive-index responsivity and lower thermal cross sensitivity. When the grating sensor was used to detect changes in refractive index, a responsivity as high as 340 nm/refractive-index unit near an index of 1.33 was demonstrated, which is three times higher than that of conventional LPGs. © 2006 Optical Society of America.

The spatial patterns of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) in late-onset sporadic Alzheimer's disease

The spatial patterns of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) were studied in areas of the cerebral cortex in 16 patients with the late-onset, sporadic form of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Diffuse, primitive, and classic Aβ deposits and NFT were aggregated into clusters; the clusters being regularly distributed parallel to the pia mater in many areas. In a significant proportion of regions, the sizes of the regularly distributed clusters approximated to those of the cells of origin of the cortico-cortical projections. The diffuse and primitive Aβ deposits exhibited a similar range of spatial patterns but the classic Aβ deposits occurred less frequently in large clusters >6400m. In addition, the NFT often occurred in larger regularly distributed clusters than the Aβ deposits. The location, size, and distribution of the clusters of Aβ deposits and NFT supports the hypothesis that AD is a 'disconnection syndrome' in which degeneration of specific cortico-cortical and cortico-hippocampal pathways results in synaptic disconnection and the formation of clusters of NFT and Aβ deposits. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.