Incumbency Reconsidered: Prospects, Strategic Entry, and Incumbent Quality in U.S. House Elections

Efforts to estimate the magnitude of the incumbency effect in U.S. House elections and assess its political meaning have been complicated by two omitted-variables problems. First, in the absence of an adequate measure of incumbent prospects, estimates of the magnitude of the incumbency effect fail to control for selection effects associated with the decision incumbents make about whether to run for reelection. Strategic incumbents enter races they think they can win and withdraw when they expect to lose. The consequence is an upward bias in estimates of incumbents’ electoral advantages. Second, the normative implications of high reelection rates cannot be assessed without measuring incumbent quality, since a possible explanation for their electoral success is that incumbents are of high quality and doing a good job. We propose a strategy for measuring incumbent prospects and quality, demonstrate the strategic nature of incumbent and challenger entry, re-estimate the incumbency effect, and show that incumbent quality has an impact on electoral outcomes. Our conclusion is that incumbents’ advantages in House elections have been over estimated while the positive basis of incumbent safety is typically under appreciated.

The drivers for entry and expansion modes of U.S.- based MNES in Brazil

The drivers for entry and expansion modes of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have been studied by several authors over the last decades but empirical results have been historically mixed. More recently, Hennart (2009) argued that the reason for the inconsistent results to date resided in the fact that prior theories assumed that local markets could be freely accessed based on a unilateral decision by the MNEs, and then proposes an alternative framework in which the entry and expansion modes of MNEs in foreign countries are a solution based on the relative efficiency of both markets. In this study, the proposed framework is tested against the prior theories based on investments made by U.S.-based MNEs in Brazil from 2005 to 2010. The results suggest that the local market characteristics, more specifically the concentration ratio at the firm and asset levels, are indeed important to influence the entry and expansion mode of U.S.-based MNEs in Brazil, reinforcing the argument against MNEs-centric theories. However, differently from Hennart’s proposition, we were not able to confirm the hypotheses that the MNEs skills are relevant to influence the final solution. We have also tested whether the difference in growth rate between the two countries could be a driver for MNEs to favor acquisition over greenfield given the opportunity cost of postponing the investments. The test result, based on our sample, was not able to confirm this hypothesis.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

Homogeneous middles vs. heterogeneous tails, and the end of the ‘Inverted-U’: the share of the rich is what it’s all about

This paper examines the current global scene of distributional disparities within-nations. There are six main conclusions. First, about 80 per cent of the world’s population now live in regions whose median country has a Gini not far from 40. Second, as outliers are now only located among middle-income and rich countries, the ‘upwards’ side of the ‘Inverted-U’ between inequality and income per capita has evaporated (and with it the statistical support there was for the hypothesis that posits that, for whatever reason, ‘things have to get worse before they can get better’). Third, among middle-income countries Latin America and mineral-rich Southern Africa are uniquely unequal, while Eastern Europe follows a distributional path similar to the Nordic countries. Fourth, among rich countries there is a large (and growing) distributional diversity. Fifth, within a global trend of rising inequality, there are two opposite forces at work. One is ‘centrifugal’, and leads to an increased diversity in the shares appropriated by the top 10 and bottom 40 per cent. The other is ‘centripetal’, and leads to a growing uniformity in the income-share appropriated by deciles 5 to 9. Therefore, half of the world’s population (the middle and upper-middle classes) have acquired strong ‘property rights’ over half of their respective national incomes; the other half, however, is increasingly up for grabs between the very rich and the poor. And sixth, Globalisation is thus creating a distributional scenario in which what really matters is the income-share of the rich — because the rest ‘follows’ (middle classes able to defend their shares, and workers with ever more precarious jobs in ever more ‘flexible’ labour markets). Therefore, anybody attempting to understand the within-nations disparity of inequality should always be reminded of this basic distributional fact following the example of Clinton’s campaign strategist: by sticking a note on their notice-boards saying “It’s the share of the rich, stupid”.

Calculable lepton masses, seesaw relations, and four neutrino mixings in a 3-3-1 model with an extra U(1) symmetry

We propose a scheme in which the masses of the heavier leptons obey seesaw type relations. The light lepton masses, except the electron and the electron neutrino ones, are generated by one loop level radiative corrections. We work in a version of the 3-3-1 electroweak model that predicts singlets (charged and neutral) of heavy leptons beyond the known ones. An extra U(1)(Omega) symmetry is introduced in order to avoid the light leptons getting masses at the tree level. The electron mass induces an explicit symmetry breaking at U(1)(Omega). We discuss also the mixing matrix among four neutrinos. The new energy scale required is not higher than a few TeV.

Spermatozoal ultrastructure in three species of the genus Uca Leach, 1814 (Crustacea, Brachyura, Ocypodidae)

Morphological aspects of spermatozoa in marine animals have been used in recent decades as phylogenetic criteria (spermiotaxonomy). This paper presents ultrastructural descriptions of the spermatozoa from Uca maracoani, U. thayeri, and U. vocator. A small portion of the vas deferens of each species was examined under the transmission and scanning electron microscopy. The ultrastructural analysis showed that each spermatophore consists of a varying number of spermatozoa embedded in a dense fibrillar matrix surrounded by a membrane. The spermatozoa of U. maracoani, U. thayeri, and U. vocator are typical of brachyurans. The Voluminous acrosome is characterized by three different layers. The postero-lateral surface of the acrosome is cupped by the reduced cytoplasm, and the anterior surface is covered by the operculum. The perforatorium consists of coiled, helicoidal membranous tubules and is continuous with the cytoplasm. The nucleus is composed by uncondensed chromatin and presents several lateral arms distributed over the entire equatorial plane of the cell. The presence of the apical button is a well defined character among all species of the genus Uca, but in U. thayeri it was not observed. The accessory opercular ring can be found in the three studied species, but in distinct development degree-Two centrioles were detected in U. thayeri and U. vocator, but only one was found in U. maracoani. The presence of centrioles in the mature spermatozoa is the first account for the genus Uca upto-date. Considering the ultrastructure of the spermatozoa of U. maracoani, U. thayeri, and U. vocator, we suggest that these three species partially follow the morphological patterns previously described in other Thoracotremata brachyurans. The absence of the apical button in U. thayeri spermatozoa may represent an evolutionary novelty in the genus Uca. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prostate carcinogenesis induced by N-methyl-N-nitrosourea (mnu) in gerbils: Histopathological diagnosis and potential invasiveness mediated by extracellular matrix components

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

(D)over-barN interaction from meson-exchange and quark-gluon dynamics

We investigate the (D) over barN interaction at low energies using a meson exchange model supplemented with a short-distance contribution from one-gluon exchange. The model is developed in close analogy to the meson-exchange KN interaction of the Julich group utilizing SU(4) symmetry constraints. The main ingredients of the interaction are provided by vector meson (rho, omega) exchange and higher-order box diagrams involving (D) over bar *N , (D) over bar Delta, and (D) over bar*Delta intermediate states. The short-range part is assumed to receive additional contributions from genuine quark-gluon processes. The predicted cross-sections for (D) over barN for excess energies up to 150MeV are of the same order of magnitude as those for KN but with average values of around 20mb, roughly a factor two larger than for the latter system. It is found that the omega-exchange plays a very important role. Its interference pattern with the rho-exchange, which is basically fixed by the assumed SU(4) symmetry, clearly determines the qualitative features of the (D) over barN interaction - very similiar to what happens also for the KN system.

Measurement of the p(p)over-bar -> WZ+X cross section at root s=1.96 TeV and limits on WWZ trilinear gauge couplings

We present measurements of the process p (P) over bar -> WZ + X -> l 'nu(l ')l (l) over bar at root s = 1:96 TeV,where l and l ' are electrons or muons. Using 1 fb(-1) of data from the D0 experiment, we observe 13 candidates with an expected background of 4.5 +/- 0.6 events and measure a cross section sigma(WZ) = 2.7(-1.3)(+1.7) pb. From the number of observed events and the Z boson transverse momentum distribution, we limit the trilinear WWZ gauge couplings to -0: 17 <= lambda(Z) <= 0.21 (Delta k(Z) <= 0.29(lambda(Z) = 0) at the 95% C.L. for a form factor scale Lambda = 2 TeV. Further, assuming that Delta g(1)(Z) = Delta k(Z), we find -0.12 <= Delta k(Z) <= 0.29(lambda(Z) = 0) at the 95% C. L. These are the most restrictive limits on the WWZ couplings available to date.

Measurement of inclusive differential cross sections for Upsilon(1S) production in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV

We present measurements of the inclusive production cross sections of the Upsilon(1S) bottomonium state in p (p) over bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV. Using the Upsilon(1S)->mu(+)mu(-) decay mode for a data sample of 159 +/- 10 pb(-1) collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider, we determine the differential cross sections as a function of the Upsilon(1S) transverse momentum for three ranges of the Upsilon(1S) rapidity: 0 <\y(Upsilon)\<= 0.6, 0.6 <\y(Upsilon)\<= 1.2, and 1.2 <\y(Upsilon)\<= 1.8.

Measurement of the t(t)over-bar production cross section in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV using kinematic characteristics of lepton plus jets events

We present a measurement of the top quark pair production cross section in p (p) over bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV utilizing 425 pb(-1) of data collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We consider the final state of the top quark pair containing one high-p(T) electron or muon and at least four jets. We exploit specific kinematic features of t (t) over bar events to extract the cross section. For a top quark mass of 175 GeV, we measure sigma(t (t) over bar)=6.4(-1.2)(+1.3)(stat)+/- 0.7(syst)+/- 0.4(lum) pb, in good agreement with the standard model prediction.

Search for the flavour-changing neutral current B-s(0)->mu+mu- in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV with the D0 dectector

We present the results of a search for the flavor-changing neutral current decay B-s(0)-->mu(+)mu(-) using a data set with integrated luminosity of 240 pb(-1) of p (p) over bar collisions at roots=1.96 TeV collected with the D0 detector in run II of the Fermilab Tevatron collider. We find the upper limit on the branching fraction to be B(B-s(0)-->mu(+)mu(-))less than or equal to5.0x10(-7) at the 95% C.L. assuming no contributions from the decay B-d(0)-->mu(+)mu(-) in the signal region. This limit is the most stringent upper bound on the branching fraction B-s(0)-->mu(+)mu(-) to date.

Search for first-generation scalar leptoquarks in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV

We report on a search for pair production of first-generation scalar leptoquarks (LQ) in p (p) over bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV using an integrated luminosity of 252 pb(-1) collected at the Fermilab Tevatron collider by the D0 detector. We observe no evidence for LQ production in the topologies arising from LQ(LQ) over bar -> eqeq and LQ(LQ) over bar -> eq nu q, and derive 95% C.L. lower limits on the LQ mass as a function of beta, where beta is the branching fraction for LQ -> eq. The limits are 241 and 218 GeV/c(2) for beta=1 and 0.5, respectively. These results are combined with those obtained by D0 at root s=1.8 TeV, which increases these LQ mass limits to 256 and 234 GeV/c(2).

Measurement of the t(t)over-bar production cross section in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV using lepton plus jets events with lifetime b-tagging

We present a measurement of the top quark pair (t (t) over bar) production cross section (sigma(t (t) over bar)) in pp collisions at root s = 1.96 TeV using 230 pb(-1) of data collected by the DO experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We select events with one charged lepton (electron or muon), missing transverse energy, and jets in the final state. We employ lifetime-based b-jet identification techniques to further enhance the t F purity of the selected sample. For a top quark mass of 175 GeV, we measure sigma(t (t) over bar) 8.6(-1.5)(+1.6) (stat. + syst.) +/- 0.6(lumi.) pb, in agreement with the standard model expectation. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.