Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

Clock Genes, Melanopsins, Melatonin, and Dopamine Key Enzymes and Their Modulation by Light and Glutamate in Chicken Embryonic Retinal Cells

The avian circadian system is composed of the retina, the mammalian homolog region of the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SNC), and the pineal gland. The retina, itself, displays many rhythmic physiological events, such as movements of photoreceptor cells, opsin expression, retinal reisomerization, and melatonin and dopamine production and secretion. Altogether, these rhythmic events are coordinated to predict environmental changes in light conditions during the day, optimizing retina function. The authors investigated the expression pattern of the melanopsin genes Opn4x and Opn4m, the clock genes Clock and Per2, and the genes for the key enzymes N-Acetyltransferase and Tyrosine Hidroxylase in chicken embryo dispersed retinal cells. Primary cultures of chicken retina from 8-day-old embryos were kept in constant dark (DD), in 12-h light/12-h dark (12L:12D), in 12L:12D followed by DD, or in DD in the absence or presence of 100 mu M glutamate for 12 h. Total RNA was extracted throughout a 24-h span, every 3 h starting at zeitgeber time 0 (ZT0) of the 6th day, and submitted to reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) followed by quantitative PCR (qPCR) for mRNA quantification. The data showed no rhythmic pattern of transcription for any gene in cells kept in DD. However under a light-dark cycle, Clock, Per2, Opn4m, N-Acetyltransferase, and Tyrosine Hydroxylase exhibited rhythmic patterns of transcription. In DD, 100 mu M glutamate was able to induce rhythmic expression of Clock, strongly inhibited the expression of Tyrosine Hydroxylase, and, only at some ZTs, of Opn4x and Opn4m. The neurotransmitter had no effect on Per2 and N-Acetyltransferase transcription. The authors confirmed the expression of the protein OPN4x by immunocytochemistry. These results suggest that chicken embryonic retinal cells contain a functional circadian clock, whose synchronization requires light-dark cycle or glutamate stimuli. (Author correspondence: amdlcast@ib.usp.br).

Melanopsin and Clock Genes: Regulation by Light and Endothelin in the Zebrafish ZEM-2S Cell Line

It is well known that clocks are present in brain regions other than the suprachiasmatic nucleus and in many peripheral tissues. In the teleost, Danio rerio, peripheral oscillators can be directly synchronized by light. Danio rerio ZEM-2S embryonic cells respond to light with differential growth: cells kept in constant light exhibited a strong inhibition of proliferation, whereas in cells kept in light:dark (LD) cycles (14L:10D and 10L:14D) or in constant darkness (DD), the doubling times were not statistically different. We demonstrated by RT-PCR followed by PCR that ZEM-2S cells express two melanopsins, Opn4x and Opn4m, and the six Cry genes. The presence of the protein OPN4x was demonstrated by immunocytochemistry. The pattern of temporal expression of the genes Opn4x, Per1, Cry1b, and Clock was studied in ZEM-2S cells kept for five days in 12L:12D or DD. In 12L:12D, the clock genes Per 1 and Cry1b exhibited robust circadian expression, while Opn4x and Clock expression seemed to vary in an ultradian pattern. Both Per1 and Cry1b genes had higher expression during the L phase; Clock gene had an increase in expression coincident with the D phase, and during the subjective night. In DD, the temporal variation of Per1 and Cry1b genes was greatly attenuated but not extinguished, and the higher expressions were shifted to the transition times between subjective day and night, demonstrating that Per and Cry1b were synchronized by the LD cycle. Clock and Opn4x kept the ultradian oscillation, but the rhythm was not statistically significant. As endothelins (ET) have been reported to be a potent stimulator of Per genes in rodents, we investigated the effect of endothelin on ZEM-2S cells, which express ETA receptors. Cells were kept in 12D:12L for five days, and then treated with 10-11 to 10-8M ET-1 for 24h. ET-1 exhibited a biphasic effect on Opn4x expression. At 10-11M, the hormone exerted a highly significant stimulation of Opn4x expression during the L phase and introduced a circadian oscillatory pattern. At 10-10M, a significant increase was seen at ZT21 and ZT0 (i.e., at the end of the D phase and beginning of the L phase), whereas 10-9 and 10-8M ET-1 inhibited the expression of Opn4x at most ZTs. Clock expression was unaffected by 10-8M ET-1; however, in the presence of lower concentrations, the expression was enhanced at some ZTs, strengthening the ultradian oscillation. ET-1 at 10-11 and 10-10M had no effect on Per1 circadian expression; however, 10-9 and 10-8M ET-1 reduced the amplitude of Per1 expression in the beginning of the L phase. ET-1 effects were less evident on Cry 1b. For both genes, the reduction in expression was not sufficient to abolish the circadian oscillatory pattern. Based on these results and data in the literature, a link between ET-1 stimulation of ETA receptors may be established by E4BP4 binding to the promoters and consequent inhibition of gene expression.

ESMO Consensus Guidelines for management of patients with colon and rectal cancer. A personalized approach to clinical decision making

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common tumour type in both sexes combined in Western countries. Although screening programmes including the implementation of faecal occult blood test and colonoscopy might be able to reduce mortality by removing precursor lesions and by making diagnosis at an earlier stage, the burden of disease and mortality is still high. Improvement of diagnostic and treatment options increased staging accuracy, functional outcome for early stages as well as survival. Although high quality surgery is still the mainstay of curative treatment, the management of CRC must be a multi-modal approach performed by an experienced multi-disciplinary expert team. Optimal choice of the individual treatment modality according to disease localization and extent, tumour biology and patient factors is able to maintain quality of life, enables long-term survival and even cure in selected patients by a combination of chemotherapy and surgery. Treatment decisions must be based on the available evidence, which has been the basis for this consensus conference-based guideline delivering a clear proposal for diagnostic and treatment measures in each stage of rectal and colon cancer and the individual clinical situations. This ESMO guideline is recommended to be used as the basis for treatment and management decisions.

The expression of melanopsin and clock genes in Xenopus laevis melanophores and their modulation by melatonin

Vertebrates have a central clock and also several peripheral clocks. Light responses might result from the integration of light signals by these clocks. The dermal melanophores of Xenopus laevis have a photoreceptor molecule denominated melanopsin (OPN4x). The mechanisms of the circadian clock involve positive and negative feedback. We hypothesize that these dermal melanophores also present peripheral clock characteristics. Using quantitative PCR, we analyzed the pattern of temporal expression of Opn4x and the clock genes Per1, Per2, Bmal1, and Clock in these cells, subjected to a 14-h light:10-h dark (14L:10D) regime or constant darkness (DD). Also, in view of the physiological role of melatonin in the dermal melanophores of X. laevis, we determined whether melatonin modulates the expression of these clock genes. These genes show a time-dependent expression pattern when these cells are exposed to 14L:10D, which differs from the pattern observed under DD. Cells kept in DD for 5 days exhibited overall increased mRNA expression for Opn4x and Clock, and a lower expression for Per1, Per2, and Bmal1. When the cells were kept in DD for 5 days and treated with melatonin for 1 h, 24 h before extraction, the mRNA levels tended to decrease for Opn4x and Clock, did not change for Bmal1, and increased for Per1 and Per2 at different Zeitgeber times (ZT). Although these data are limited to one-day data collection, and therefore preliminary, we suggest that the dermal melanophores of X. laevis might have some characteristics of a peripheral clock, and that melatonin modulates, to a certain extent, melanopsin and clock gene expression.

Spectrum shaping and its application: spread-spectrum clock generator and circuits for ultra wide band

Electromagnetic spectrum can be identified as a resource for the designer, as well as for the manufacturer, from two complementary points of view: first, because it is a good in great demand by many different kind of applications; second, because despite its scarce availability, it may be advantageous to use more spectrum than necessary. This is the case of Spread-Spectrum Systems, those systems in which the transmitted signal is spread over a wide frequency band, much wider, in fact, than the minimum bandwidth required to transmit the information being sent. Part I of this dissertation deals with Spread-Spectrum Clock Generators (SSCG) aiming at reducing Electro Magnetic Interference (EMI) of clock signals in integrated circuits (IC) design. In particular, the modulation of the clock and the consequent spreading of its spectrum are obtained through a random modulating signal outputted by a chaotic map, i.e. a discrete-time dynamical system showing chaotic behavior. The advantages offered by this kind of modulation are highlighted. Three different prototypes of chaos-based SSCG are presented in all their aspects: design, simulation, and post-fabrication measurements. The third one, operating at a frequency equal to 3GHz, aims at being applied to Serial ATA, standard de facto for fast data transmission to and from Hard Disk Drives. The most extreme example of spread-spectrum signalling is the emerging ultra-wideband (UWB) technology, which proposes the use of large sections of the radio spectrum at low amplitudes to transmit high-bandwidth digital data. In part II of the dissertation, two UWB applications are presented, both dealing with the advantages as well as with the challenges of a wide-band system, namely: a chaos-based sequence generation method for reducing Multiple Access Interference (MAI) in Direct Sequence UWB Wireless-Sensor-Networks (WSNs), and design and simulations of a Low-Noise Amplifier (LNA) for impulse radio UWB. This latter topic was studied during a study-abroad period in collaboration with Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands.

Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.

A Near-Real-Time Automatic Orbit Determination System for COSMIC and Its Follow-On Satellite Mission: Analysis of Orbit and Clock Errors on Radio Occultation

The COSMIC-2 mission is a follow-on mission of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) with an upgraded payload for improved radio occultation (RO) applications. The objective of this paper is to develop a near-real-time (NRT) orbit determination system, called NRT National Chiao Tung University (NCTU) system, to support COSMIC-2 in atmospheric applications and verify the orbit product of COSMIC. The system is capable of automatic determinations of the NRT GPS clocks and LEO orbit and clock. To assess the NRT (NCTU) system, we use eight days of COSMIC data (March 24-31, 2011), which contain a total of 331 GPS observation sessions and 12 393 RO observable files. The parallel scheduling for independent GPS and LEO estimations and automatic time matching improves the computational efficiency by 64% compared to the sequential scheduling. Orbit difference analyses suggest a 10-cm accuracy for the COSMIC orbits from the NRT (NCTU) system, and it is consistent as the NRT University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (URCA) system. The mean velocity accuracy from the NRT orbits of COSMIC is 0.168 mm/s, corresponding to an error of about 0.051 μrad in the bending angle. The rms differences in the NRT COSMIC clock and in GPS clocks between the NRT (NCTU) and the postprocessing products are 3.742 and 1.427 ns. The GPS clocks determined from a partial ground GPS network [from NRT (NCTU)] and a full one [from NRT (UCAR)] result in mean rms frequency stabilities of 6.1E-12 and 2.7E-12, respectively, corresponding to range fluctuations of 5.5 and 2.4 cm and bending angle errors of 3.75 and 1.66 μrad .

European Union and its member states as a collective actor in WTO decision-making process. ACES Cases No. 2010.3

This paper will outline and analyze the decision-making process in WTO matters. First, the players of the decision-making process -- the Council of the European Union (Council), the Trade Policy Committee, the Commission, and the European Parliament -- will be examined. Then the distinction will be made between decision-making in initiating WTO disputes and decision-making conducting trade agreement negotiations in the WTO. Then, decision-making practices in WTO matters will be assessed against constitutional principles of transparency, accountability, and legitimacy. After this assessment, conclusions will be drawn.

The encyclopaedia of practical cookery : a complete dictionary of all pertaining to the art of cookery and table service : including original modern reciepts for all kinds of dishes for general, occasional, and exceptional use, the making of every description of table confectionery, the home manufacture of wines, liqueurs, and table waters, the laying, decorating, and preparing of banquets, wedding breakfasts, luncheons, teas, celebration and ball suppers, picnics, garden-party refreshments, race and boating baskets, &c. : the care and good management of the cellar, butler's pantry, larder, ice rooms and chests, &c. /

[Division I. A to Cak] -- Division II. Cak to Cro -- Division III. Cro to Gri -- Division IV. Gri to Mus -- Division V. Mus to Pin -- Division VI. Pin to Ser -- Division VII. Sha to Tut -- Division VIII. Twe to Zwe.

The complete economical cook and frugal housewife : an entirely new system of domestic cookery : containing approved directions for purchasing, preserving, and cooking : also, trussing and carving, preparing soups, gravies, sauces, made dishes, potting, pickling, &c. : with directions for pastry and confectionery : likewise the art of making British wines, brewing, baking, &c. /

"Bills of fare": p. 63-90; "Table of income and wages": p. 426; "Marketing tables": p. [427]-432.

Every-day cookery for every family : containing nearly 1,000 receipts adapted to moderate incomes and comprising the best and most economical methods of roasting, boiling, broiling, and stewing all kinds of meats, fish, poultry, game and vegetables : simple inexpensive instructions for making pies, puddings, tarts and all other pastry : how to pickle and preserve fruits and vegetables : suitable cookery for invalids and children : food in season and how to choose it : the best ways to make domestic wines and syrups : and ample receipts for bread, cake, soups, gravies, sauces, desserts, jellies, brandied fruits, soaps, perfumes, etc., etc. : and ample directions for carving /

"Domestic wines and liquors": p. 226-236.

British manufactures.

[Vols. 4-6] are called "Series IV-VI."

Finding meaning in parenting a child with Asperger syndrome: correlates of sense making and benefit finding

This study explored the nature of two construals of meaning, benefit finding and sense making, in parents of a child with Asperger syndrome, and examined relations between both meaning constructs and the Double ABCX family stress model variables (initial stressor and pile-up of demands, appraisal, social support, coping strategies and adjustment) [H.I. McCubbin, J.M. Patterson, Social Stress and the Family: Advances and Developments in Family Stress Theory and Research, Haworth, New York, 1983, pp. 7-37]. A total of 59 parents completed questionnaires. Content analyses of parents' responses to questions inquiring about gains and sense making explanations revealed 8 benefit and 12 sense making themes. Results of correlations indicated that one or more of the meaning variables were related to each of the Double ABCX model predictors of parental adjustment. The meaning variables were positively related to adaptive coping processes: social support, self-efficacy, and problem-focused and emotional approach coping strategies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.