991 resultados para Climate control


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Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

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Selection of biocontrol agents that are adapted to the climates in areas of intended release demands a thorough analysis of the climates of the source and release sites. We present a case study that demonstrates how use of the CLIMEX software can improve decision making in relation to the identification of prospective areas for exploration for agents to control the woody weed, prickly acacia Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in the arid areas of north Queensland.

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Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (Myrtaceae) was imported into Florida from Australia over a century ago as a landscape plant. A favorable climate and periodic wildfires helped M. quinquenervia thrive; it now occupies about 200,000 hectares in southern Florida. A biological control (i.e., biocontrol) program against M. quinquenervia has been initiated, but not all biocontrol releases are successful. Some scientists have argued that poor biocontrol agent success may relate to genetic differences among populations of invasive weeds. I tested this premise by determining (1) the number and origins of M. quinquenervia introductions into Florida, (2) whether multiple introduction events resulted in the partitioning of Florida's M. quinquenervia populations into discrete biotypes, and (3) whether Oxyops vitiosa, an Australia snout beetle imported to control this weed, might discriminate among putative M. quinquenervia biotypes. Careful scrutiny of early horticultural catalogs and USDA plant introduction records suggested at least six distinct introduction events. Allozyme analyses indicated that the pattern of these introductions, and the subsequent redistribution of progeny, has resulted in geographic structuring of the populations in southern Florida. For example, trees on Florida's Gulf Coast had a greater effective number of alleles and exhibited greater heterozygosity than trees on the Atlantic Coast. Essential oil yields from M. quinquenervia leaves followed a similar trend; Gulf Coast trees yielded nearly twice as much oil as Atlantic Coast trees when both were grown in a common garden. These differences were partially explained by the predominance of a chemical phenotype (chemotype) very rich in the sesquiterpene (E)-nerolidol in M. quinquenervia trees from the Gulf Coast, but rich in a mixture of the monoterpene 1,8-cineole and the sesquiterpene viridiflorol in trees from the Atlantic Coast. Performance of O. vitiosa differed dramatically in laboratory studies depending on the chemotype of the foliage they were fed. Larval survivorship was four-fold greater on the (E)-nerolidol chemotype. Growth was also greater, with adult O. vitiosa gaining nearly 50% more biomass on the (E)-nerolidol plants than on the second chemotype. The results of this study thus confirmed the premise that plant genotype can affect the population dynamics of insects released as weed biocontrols. ^

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Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 101–102 km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.

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This data sets contains LPJ-LMfire dynamic global vegetation model output covering Europe and the Mediterranean for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka) and for a preindustrial control simulation (20th century detrended climate). The netCDF data files are time averages of the final 30 years of the model simulation. Each netCDF file contains four or five variables: fractional cover of 9 plant functional types (PFTs; cover), total fractional coverage of trees (treecover), population density of hunter-gatherers (foragerPD; only for the "people" simulations), fraction of the gridcell burned on 30-year average (burnedf), and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). The model spatial resolution is 0.5-degrees For the LGM simulations, LPJ-LMfire was driven by the PMIP3 suite of eight GCMs for which LGM climate simulations were available. Also provided in this archive is the result of an LPJ-LMfire run that was forced by the average climate of all GCMs (the "GCM-mean" files), and the average of each of the individual LPJ-LMfire runs over the eight LGM scenarios individually (the "LPJ-mean" files). The model simulations are provided that include the influence of human presence on the landscape (the "people" files), and in a "world without humans" scenario (the "natural" files). Finally this archive contains the preindustrial reference simulation with and without human influence ("PI_reference_people" and "PI_reference_nat", respectively). There are therefore 22 netCDF files in this archive: 8 each of LGM simulations with and without people (total 16) and the "GCM mean" simulation (2 files) and the "LPJ mean" aggregate (2 files), and finally the two preindustrial "control" simulations ("PI"), with and without humans (2 files). In addition to the LPJ-LMfire model output (netCDF files), this archive also contains a table of arboreal pollen percent calculated from pollen samples dated to the LGM at sites throughout (lgmAP.txt), and a table containing the location of archaeological sites dated to the LGM (LGM_archaeological_site_locations.txt).

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The marine isotopic stage 3 (MIS3) at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1060 (Gulf Stream) shows both sharp onset and end of interstadials, the existence of very short lived warm events during stadials, and points to differences in detail between the sea surface temperature (SST) record from the western North Atlantic and the atmospheric temperature record inferred from d18O in Greenland ice. Investigating MIS3 and obtaining comparable data from other locations appears crucial. The eastern Atlantic provides well-documented records of climate changes. We have selected a core from off Portugal and use it to examine Dansgaard/Oeschger events (D/O) at centennial-scale resolution (139 years on average between two data points). We have obtained a faunal data set for core MD01-2444, 37°N, 10°W, 2600 m water depth and use a group of species (Globigerina bulloides + Globigerinita glutinata) as a proxy of upwelling intensity driven by trade winds intensity changes. We tentatively relate the variation of this group to a North Atlantic Oscillation-like phenomenon (NAO) off Portugal. We observe that it resembles the rainfall index in the Caribbean as recorded at ODP Site 1002 (Cariaco Basin) which traces the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) location through changes of terrigenous inputs. The driest intervals (ITZC to the south) at Site 1002 correspond to intervals of increased upwelling in MD01-2444 as well as the driest periods identified during stadials on similar cores in the area. Because the ITZC to the south is consistent with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO+) situation, our study suggests a positive correlation between ENSO-like conditions and NAO-like conditions at a millennial timescale. During interstadial intervals when increased wetness over Cariaco is recorded (ITCZ to the north) and the upwelling in MD01-2444 is decreased, we see from both SSTs and faunal tropical indicators that MD01-2444 site is warm. In addition, interstadials are equally warm through each so-called Bond cycle. This contrasts with the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) record where interstadial peaks are successively cooler through each Bond cycle. This record confirms a link between tropical climate linked to ITCZ position and the climate of southern Europe at millennial timescales, in spite of showing a very good correlation with polar latitudes (GRIP) through d18O on Globigerina bulloides. In addition, because the warmest SSTs and the d18O on G. bulloides are so remarkably different, our work points to changes in seasonality as a strong control over the climatic pattern of the North Atlantic area and the marked influence of winter conditions.

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Short-term changes in sea surface conditions controlling the thermohaline circulation in the northern North Atlantic are expected to be especially efficient in perturbing global climate stability. Here we assess past variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the northeast Atlantic and Norwegian Sea during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 and, in particular, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Five high-resolution SST records were established on a meridional transect (53°N-72°N) to trace centennial-scale oscillations in SST and sea-ice cover. We used three independent computational techniques (SIMMAX modern analogue technique, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Revised Analog Method (RAM)) to reconstruct SST from planktonic foraminifer census counts. SIMMAX and ANN reproduced short-term SST oscillations of similar magnitude and absolute levels, while RAM, owing to a restrictive analog selection, appears less suitable for reconstructing "cold end" SST. The SIMMAX and ANN SST reconstructions support the existence of a weak paleo-Norwegian Current during Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) interstadials number 4, 3, 2, and 1. During the LGM, two warm incursions of 7°C water to occurred in the northern North Atlantic but ended north of the Iceland Faroe Ridge. A rough numerical estimate shows that the near-surface poleward heat transfer from 53° across the Iceland-Faroe Ridge up to to 72° N dropped to less than 60% of the modern value during DO interstadials and to almost zero during DO stadials. Summer sea ice was generally confined to the area north of 70°N and only rarely expanded southward along the margins of continental ice sheets. Internal LGM variability of North Atlantic (>40°N) SST in the GLAMAP 2000 compilation (Sarnthein et al., 2003, doi:10.1029/2002PA000771; Pflaumann et al., 2003, doi:10.1029/2002PA000774) indicates maximum instability in the glacial subpolar gyre and at the Iberian Margin, while in the Nordic Seas, SST was continuously low.

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Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policymakers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.

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Zoonotic parasitic diseases are increasingly impacting human populations due to the effects of globalization, urbanization and climate change. Here we review the recent literature on the most important helminth zoonoses, including reports of incidence and prevalence. We discuss those helminth diseases which are increasing in endemic areas and consider their geographical spread into new regions within the framework of globalization, urbanization and climate change to determine the effect these variables are having on disease incidence, transmission and the associated challenges presented for public health initiatives, including control and elimination.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) is an evaluation method by which heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration systems can be evaluated for their global warming impact over the course of their complete life cycle. LCCP is more inclusive than previous metrics such as Total Equivalent Warming Impact. It is calculated as the sum of direct and indirect emissions generated over the lifetime of the system “from cradle to grave”. Direct emissions include all effects from the release of refrigerants into the atmosphere during the lifetime of the system. This includes annual leakage and losses during the disposal of the unit. The indirect emissions include emissions from the energy consumption during manufacturing process, lifetime operation, and disposal of the system. This thesis proposes a standardized approach to the use of LCCP and traceable data sources for all aspects of the calculation. An equation is proposed that unifies the efforts of previous researchers. Data sources are recommended for average values for all LCCP inputs. A residential heat pump sample problem is presented illustrating the methodology. The heat pump is evaluated at five U.S. locations in different climate zones. An excel tool was developed for residential heat pumps using the proposed method. The primary factor in the LCCP calculation is the energy consumption of the system. The effects of advanced vapor compression cycles are then investigated for heat pump applications. Advanced cycle options attempt to reduce the energy consumption in various ways. There are three categories of advanced cycle options: subcooling cycles, expansion loss recovery cycles and multi-stage cycles. The cycles selected for research are the suction line heat exchanger cycle, the expander cycle, the ejector cycle, and the vapor injection cycle. The cycles are modeled using Engineering Equation Solver and the results are applied to the LCCP methodology. The expander cycle, ejector cycle and vapor injection cycle are effective in reducing LCCP of a residential heat pump by 5.6%, 8.2% and 10.5%, respectively in Phoenix, AZ. The advanced cycles are evaluated with the use of low GWP refrigerants and are capable of reducing the LCCP of a residential heat by 13.7%, 16.3% and 18.6% using a refrigerant with a GWP of 10. To meet the U.S. Department of Energy’s goal of reducing residential energy use by 40% by 2025 with a proportional reduction in all other categories of residential energy consumption, a reduction in the energy consumption of a residential heat pump of 34.8% with a refrigerant GWP of 10 for Phoenix, AZ is necessary. A combination of advanced cycle, control options and low GWP refrigerants are necessary to meet this goal.

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Idealized ocean models are known to develop intrinsic multidecadal oscillations of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Here we explore the role of ocean–atmosphere interactions on this low-frequency variability. We use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model set up in a flat-bottom aquaplanet geometry with two meridional boundaries. The model is run at three different horizontal resolutions (4°, 2° and 1°) in both the ocean and atmosphere. At all resolutions, the MOC exhibits spontaneous variability on multidecadal timescales in the range 30–40 years, associated with the propagation of large-scale baroclinic Rossby waves across the Atlantic-like basin. The unstable region of growth of these waves through the long wave limit of baroclinic instability shifts from the eastern boundary at coarse resolution to the western boundary at higher resolution. Increasing the horizontal resolution enhances both intrinsic atmospheric variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions. In particular, the simulated atmospheric annular mode becomes significantly correlated to the MOC variability at 1° resolution. An ocean-only simulation conducted for this specific case underscores the disruptive but not essential influence of air–sea interactions on the low-frequency variability. This study demonstrates that an atmospheric annular mode leading MOC changes by about 2 years (as found at 1° resolution) does not imply that the low-frequency variability originates from air–sea interactions.

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To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.

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Soils are the largest sinks of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Soil organic carbon is important for ecosystem balance as it supplies plants with nutrients, maintains soil structure, and helps control the exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. The processes in which wood carbon is stabilized and destabilized in forest soils is still not understood completely. This study attempts to measure early wood decomposition by different fungal communities (inoculation with pure colonies of brown or white rot, or the original microbial community) under various interacting treatments: wood quality (wood from +CO2, +CO2+O3, or ambient atmosphere Aspen-FACE treatments from Rhinelander, WI), temperature (ambient or warmed), soil texture (loamy or sandy textured soil), and wood location (plot surface or buried 15cm below surface). Control plots with no wood chips added were also monitored throughout the study. By using isotopically-labelled wood chips from the Aspen-FACE experiment, we are able to track wood-derived carbon losses as soil CO2 efflux and as leached dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We analyzed soil water for chemical characteristics such as, total phenolics, SUVA254, humification, and molecular size. Wood chip samples were also analyzed for their proportion of lignin:carbohydrates using FTIR analysis at three time intervals throughout 12 months of decomposition. After two years of measurements, the average total soil CO2 efflux rates were significantly different depending on wood location, temperature, and wood quality. The wood-derived portion soil CO2 efflux also varied significantly by wood location, temperature, and wood quality. The average total DOC and the wood-derived portion of DOC differed between inoculation treatments, wood location, and temperature. Soil water chemical characteristics varied significantly by inoculation treatments, temperature, and wood quality. After 12 months of decomposition the proportion of lignin:carbohydrates varied significantly by inoculation treatment, with white rot having the only average proportional decrease in lignin:carbohydrates. Both soil CO2 efflux and DOC losses indicate that wood location is important. Carbon losses were greater from surface wood chips compared with buried wood chips, implying the importance of buried wood for total ecosystem carbon stabilization. Treatments associated with climate change also had an effect on the level of decomposition. DOC losses, soil water characteristics, and FTIR data demonstrate the importance of fungal community on the degree of decomposition and the resulting byproducts found throughout the soil.

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Introduction: The work environment and Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) practice have changed over the last number of years. A holistic OHS approach has been recommended by the authorities in this field (e.g. World Health Organisation (WHO), European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO)). This involves a unified action engaging elements of the physical and psychosocial workplace with greater focus on prevention and promotion of health and wellbeing. The health and safety practitioner (HSP) has been recognised as one of the main agents for implementation of OHS. Within an organisation they act as a leader of change and a professional who shapes health and safety while safeguarding the wellbeing of individuals at work. Additionally, safety climate (SC) has been developed as an essential concept for OHS of an organisation, its productivity and the wellbeing of its workforce. Scholars and practitioners have recognised the great need for further empirical evidence on the HSP’s role in a changing work environment that increasingly requires the use of preventative measures and the assessment and management of psychosocial work-related risks. This doctoral research brings together the different concepts used in OHS and Public Health including SC, Psychosocial workplace risks, Health Promotion and OHS performance. The associations between these concepts are analysed bearing in mind the WHO Healthy Workplace Framework and three of its main components (physical and psychosocial work environment and health resources). This thesis aims to establish a deeper understanding of the practice and management of OHS in Ireland and the UK, exploring the role of HSPs (employed in diverse sectors of activity) and of SC in the OHS of organisations. Methods: One systematic review and three cross-sectional research studies were performed. The systematic review focussed on the evidence compiled for the association of SC with accidents and injuries at work, clarifying this concept’s definition and its most relevant dimensions. The second article (chapter 3) explored the association of SC with accidents and injuries in a sample of workers (n=367) from a pharmaceutical industry and compared permanent with non-permanent workers. Associations of safety climate with employment status and with self-reported occupational accidents/injuries were studied through logistic regression modelling. The third and fourth papers in this thesis investigated the main tasks performed by HSPs, their perceptions of SC, health climate (HC), psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes as well as work efficacy. Validated questionnaires were applied to a sample of HSPs in Ireland and UK, members of the Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (n=1444). Chi-square analysis and logistic regression were used to assess the association between HSPs work characteristics and their involvement in the management of Psychosocial Risk Factors, Safety Culture and Health Promotion (paper 3). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the association between SC, HC, psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes (general health and mental wellbeing) and self-efficacy. Results: As shown in the systematic review, scientific evidence is unable to establish the widely assumed causal link between SC and accidents and injuries. Nevertheless, the current results suggested that, particularly, the organisational dimensions of SC were associated with accidents and injuries and that SC is linked to health, wellbeing and safety performance in the organisation. According to the present research, contingent workers had lower SC perceptions but showed a lower accident/injury rate than their permanent colleagues. The associations of safety climate with accidents/injuries had opposite directions for the two types of workers as for permanent employees it showed an inverse relationship while for temporary workers, although not significant, a positive association was found. This thesis’ findings showed that HSPs are, to a very small degree, included in activities related to psychosocial risk management and assessment, to a moderate degree, involved in HP activities and, to a large degree, engaged in the management of safety culture in organisations. In the final research study, SC and HC were linked to job demands-control-support (JDCS), health, wellbeing and efficacy. JDCS were also associated with all three outcomes under study. Results also showed the contribution of psychosocial risk factors to the association of SC and HC with all the studied outcomes. These associations had rarely been recorded previously. Discussion & Conclusions: Health and safety climate showed a significant association with health, wellbeing and efficacy - a relationship which affects working conditions and the health and wellbeing of the workforce. This demonstrates the link of both SC and HC with the OHS and the general strength or viability of organisations. A division was noticed between the area of “health” and “safety” in the workplace and in the approach to the physical and psychosocial work environment. These findings highlighted the current challenge in ensuring a holistic and multidisciplinary approach for prevention of hazards and for an integrated OHS management. HSPs have shown to be a pivotal agent in the shaping and development of OHS in organisations. However, as observed in this thesis, the role of these professionals is still far from the recommended involvement in the management of psychosocial risk factors and could have a more complete engagement in other areas of OHS such as health promotion. Additionally, a strong culture of health and safety with supportive management and buy-in from all stakeholders is essential to achieve the ideal unified and prevention-focussed approach to OHS as recommended by the WHO, EU-OSHA and ILO.