Scales of Impact: Settlement History and Landscape Change in the Gordion Region, Central Anatolia

The expansion of agriculture in the Near East during the middle Holocene significantly altered the physical landscape. However, the relationship between the scale of agriculture and the magnitude and timing of the environmental impacts is not well known. The Gordion Regional Survey provides a novel dataset to compare settlement density during archaeological periods to rates of environmental disruption. Sediment samples from alluvial cores directly date the environmental disruption, which can be matched to period-specific settlement intensities in the watershed as constructed from archaeological survey ceramics. Degradation rates rose sharply within a millennium of the earliest Chalcolithic occupation. Early Bronze Age (EBA) land use induced the greatest rates of environmental degradation, although settlement density was relatively low on the landscape. The degradation rate subsequently decreased to one-third its early peak by the Iron Age, even as settlement intensity climbed. This trajectory reveals how complex interaction effects can amplify or subdue the responses of the landscape-land use system. Prior to settlement, landscape soil reservoirs were highly vulnerable, easily tipped by early agricultural expansion. Subsequent reduced rates of erosion are tied both to changes in sociopolitical organization and to depletion of the vulnerable soil supply.

Occupational maxillofacial fractures: a 3-year survey in central Switzerland

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine occupational facial fractures in central Switzerland. Concomitant injuries were also studied. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Department of Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery at the University Hospital in Berne provides a 24-hour maxillofacial trauma service for its population (1.6 million). The present study was comprised of 42 patients (8.4% of treated maxillofacial injuries) with occupational maxillofacial fractures registered at this unit between 2000 and 2002. Information on the topic of occupation, the cause of the accidents, and the topographic location of the fractures was analyzed. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 44.4 years, with a male to female ratio of 41:1. Sixty-nine percent of the injuries occurred in farm and forestry workers and in construction laborers during the summertime (33%). Workers in these occupations carried a 127-fold (farm and forestry workers) and a 44-fold (construction laborers) higher risk of incurring maxillofacial fractures than did service and office workers. Injuries were most frequently (43%) caused by a thrown, projected, or falling object. Eighty-two percent of the fractures occurred in the midface region and at the skull base. Fifty-nine percent of the patients had concomitant injuries. In 69%, surgery was necessary, the mean duration of their hospital stay being 4.8 days. CONCLUSION: The probability of sustaining work-related maxillofacial traumata is correlated to the nature of the occupation. Farm and forestry workers are at the highest risk, most frequently injured by being struck by an object or an animal. The introduction of personalized safety measures should become obligatory in high-risk occupations.

The supply of complementary and alternative medicine in Swiss hospitals

OBJECTIVES: Over the past few years, a considerable increase in complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) has been observed, particularly in primary care. In contrast little is known about the supply of CAM in Swiss hospitals. This study aims at the investigation of amount and structure of CAM activities of Swiss hospitals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We designed a cross-sectional survey using a 2-step, questionnaire- based approach acquiring overview information form hospital managers in a first questionnaire leading to detailed information on CAM usage at medical department level (head of department). This second questionnaire provides data of physician-based and non-physician-based CAM supply. RESULTS: The size of hospitals was significantly associated with the provision of CAM. 33% of the hospital managers indicated 1 or more medical doctor (MD) using CAM in their hospital compared to 37% of confirmation on department level (Kappa value 0.5). Mostly different CAM methods were applied. Acupuncture was used most frequently. However only 13 hospitals (11%) occupied more than 3 CAM MDs and only 5 hospitals had more than 2 full-time equivalents for MDs. Furthermore, 74.7% of these personnel resources were dedicated for outpatient care. In terms of CAM methods anthroposophic medicine accounted for more than half of the total personnel costs. On the other hand usage of non-physician based CAM accounted for 41% according to hospital managers compared to 64% of CAM usage according to medical departments (Kappa values 0.31). Reflexology of the foot was used most frequently. CONCLUSION: Total supply of CAM in Swiss hospitals is low and concentrates on few hospitals. Acupuncture is the widest spread discipline but anthroposophic medicine spends the most resources. The study shows that a high patient demand for CAM faces low supply in hospitals.

Multicentre study on peri- and postoperative central venous oxygen saturation in high-risk surgical patients

Introduction Low central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) has been associated with increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. Whether this association is centre-specific or more generalisable is not known. The aim of this study was to assess the association between peri- and postoperative ScvO2 and outcome in high-risk surgical patients in a multicentre setting. Methods Three large European university hospitals (two in Finland, one in Switzerland) participated. In 60 patients with intra-abdominal surgery lasting more than 90 minutes, the presence of at least two of Shoemaker's criteria, and ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) class greater than 2, ScvO2 was determined preoperatively and at two hour intervals during the operation until 12 hours postoperatively. Hospital length of stay (LOS) mortality, and predefined postoperative complications were recorded. Results The age of the patients was 72 ± 10 years (mean ± standard deviation), and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) was 32 ± 12. Hospital LOS was 10.5 (8 to 14) days, and 28-day hospital mortality was 10.0%. Preoperative ScvO2 decreased from 77% ± 10% to 70% ± 11% (p < 0.001) immediately after surgery and remained unchanged 12 hours later. A total of 67 postoperative complications were recorded in 32 patients. After multivariate analysis, mean ScvO2 value (odds ratio [OR] 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.50], p = 0.037), hospital LOS (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.59 to 0.94], p = 0.012), and SAPS II (OR 0.90 [95% CI 0.82 to 0.99], p = 0.029) were independently associated with postoperative complications. The optimal value of mean ScvO2 to discriminate between patients who did or did not develop complications was 73% (sensitivity 72%, specificity 61%). Conclusion Low ScvO2 perioperatively is related to increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. This warrants trials with goal-directed therapy using ScvO2 as a target in high-risk surgery patients.

Prevalence and associated factors of viral hepatitis and transferrin elevations in 5036 patients admitted to the emergency room of a Swiss university hospital: cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of liver disease in patients admitted to emergency rooms is largely unknown. The current study aimed to measure the prevalence of viral hepatitis B and C infection and pathological laboratory values of liver disease in such a population, and to study factors associated with these measurements. METHODS: Cross-sectional study in patients admitted to the emergency room of a university hospital. No formal exclusion criteria. Determination of anti-HBs, anti-HCV, transferrin saturation, alanine aminotransferase, and obtaining answers from a study-specific questionnaire. RESULTS: The study included 5'036 patients, representing a 14.9% sample of the target population during the study period. Prevalence of anti-HBc and anti-HCV was 6.7% (95%CI 6.0% to 7.4%) and 2.7% (2.3% to 3.2%), respectively. Factors independently associated with positive anti-HBc were intravenous drug abuse (OR 18.3; 11.3 to 29.7), foreign country of birth (3.4; 2.6 to 4.4), non-white ethnicity (2.7; 1.9 to 3.8) and age > or =60 (2.0; 1.5 to 2.8). Positive anti-HCV was associated with intravenous drug abuse (78.9; 43.4 to 143.6), blood transfusion (1.7; 1.1 to 2.8) and abdominal pain (2.7; 1.5 to 4.8). 75% of all participants were not vaccinated against hepatitis B or did not know their vaccination status. Among anti-HCV positive patients only 49% knew about their infection and 51% reported regular alcohol consumption. Transferrin saturation was elevated in 3.3% and was associated with fatigue (prevalence ratio 1.9; 1.2 to 2.8). CONCLUSION: Emergency rooms should be considered as targets for public health programs that encourage vaccination, patient education and screening of high-risk patients for liver disease with subsequent referral for treatment if indicated.

Incidence of low central venous oxygen saturation during unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit: an observational study

INTRODUCTION: It has been shown that early central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2)-guided optimization of hemodynamics can improve outcome in septic patients. The early ScvO2 profile of other patient groups is unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit (ICU) with respect to ScvO2 and outcome. METHODS: Ninety-eight consecutive unplanned admissions to a multidisciplinary ICU (median age 63 [range 19 to 83] years, median Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS II] 43 [range 11 to 92]) with a clinical indication for a central venous catheter were included in the study. ScvO2 was assessed at ICU arrival and six hours later but was not used to guide treatment. Length of stay in ICU (LOSICU) and in hospital (LOShospital) and 28-day mortality were recorded. RESULTS: ScvO2 was 70% +/- 12% (mean +/- standard deviation) at admission and 71% +/- 10% six hours later (p = 0.484). Overall 28-day mortality was 18%, LOSICU was 3 (1 to 28) days, and LOShospital was 19 (1 to 28) days. Patients with an ScvO2 of less than 60% at admission had higher mortality than patients with an ScvO2 of more than 60% (29% versus 17%, p < 0.05). Changes in ScvO2 during the first six hours were not predictive of LOSICU, LOShospital, or mortality. CONCLUSION: Low ScvO2 in unplanned admissions and high SAPS II are associated with increased mortality. Standard ICU treatment increased ScvO2 in patients with a low admission ScvO2, but the increase was not associated with LOSICU or LOShospital.

A 3-year survey of assault-related maxillofacial fractures in central Switzerland

AIM: The aim of this study was to analyse the character of assault-related facial fractures in central Switzerland and to compare their prevalence with the data presented in similar reports from other countries. MATERIAL: The present study comprised 65 patients with assault-related maxillofacial fractures treated in the Department of Cranio-Maxillofacial Surgery, University Hospital of Bern between 2000 and 2002. METHODS: The mechanism, the causes of the injuries and the location of the fractures were analysed by reviewing emergency and hospital records. Concomitant injuries were also studied. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 33 years with the largest group being below 25 years. The male-to-female ratio was 56:9. The most common causes of assault-related injuries were fights, most frequently facial blows, accounting for 92.5% of all patients. Seventy-six per cent of the fractures occurred in the middle and upper facial skeleton with a predominance of 2:1 for the left side. In 39 patients (60%) surgery was necessary, with a mean hospital stay of 3.3 days. Thirty-five patients (54%) had concomitant injuries. Alcohol and drug abuse was found in 15 patients (23%). CONCLUSION: It seems that mostly young men suffer assault-related maxillofacial injuries. A contributing factor to the increased disposition for violence could be alcohol and drug abuse. Therefore, national prevention programmes for alcohol or drug abuse and addiction might have a positive effect on reducing the incidence of assault-related maxillofacial injuries.

Das zyanotische Kind mit kardialer Erkrankung im Notfalldienst

m Gegensatz zu Erwachsenen mit vorwiegend pulmonalen Erkrankungen wie der chronisch obstruktiven Lungenerkrankung, entsteht bei Kindern eine zentrale Zyanose meist durch angeborene Herzfehler. Zyanotische Herzfehler kommen mit einer Häufigkeit von ca. 13 pro 10.000 Lebendgeburten vor. Dadurch, dass heutzutage auch komplexe Herzfehler erfolgreich palliiert werden, steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit stetig an, im Rettungsdienst Kindern mit einer zentralen Zyanose zu begegnen. Ursachen für das untersättigte Blut in den großen Arterien können eine Minderperfusion der Lungen oder eine vermehrte Durchmischung von arteriellen mit venösem Blut über einen Rechts-Links-Shunt sein. Der beste Indikator einer zentralen Zyanose ist die Zunge, da sie reichlich vaskularisiert und frei von Pigmenten ist. Je nach Altersklasse ist eher eine primäre Volumentherapie oder eine großzügige Sauerstoffapplikation essenziell, oder aber auch keine Notfalltherapie notwendig. Nach der präklinischen Versorgung ist eine stationäre Einweisung unabdingbar, bevorzugt in ein Zentrum mit der Option der kinderintensivmedizinischen oder kinderkardiologischen Betreuung.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Decision making in patients with acute abdominal pain at a university and at a rural hospital: Does the value of abdominal sonography differ?

Introduction and objectives Abdominal sonography is regarded as a quick and effective diagnostic tool for acute abdominal pain in emergency medicine. However, final diagnosis is usually based on a combination of various clinical examinations and radiography. The role of sonography in the decision making process at a hospital with advanced imaging capabilities versus a hospital with limited imaging capabilities but more experienced clinicians is unclear. The aim of this pilot study was to assess the relative importance of sonography and its influence on the clinical management of acute abdominal pain, at two Swiss hospitals, a university hospital (UH) and a rural hospital (RH). Methods 161 patients were prospectively examined clinically. Blood tests and sonography were performed in all patients. Patients younger than 18 years and patients with trauma were excluded. In both hospitals, the diagnosis before and after ultrasonography was registered in a protocol. Certainty of the diagnosis was expressed on a scale from 0% to 100%. The decision processes used to manage patients before and after they underwent sonography were compared. The diagnosis at discharge was compared to the diagnosis 2 – 6 weeks thereafter. Results Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of sonography were high: 94%, 88% and 91%, respectively. At the UH, management after sonography changed in only 14% of cases, compared to 27% at the RH. Additional tests were more frequently added at the UH (30%) than at the RH (18%), but had no influence on the decision making process-whether to operate or not. At the UH, the diagnosis was missed in one (1%) patient, but in three (5%) patients at the RH. No significant difference was found between the two hospitals in frequency of management changes due to sonography or in the correctness of the diagnosis. Conclusion Knowing that sonography has high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in the diagnosis of acute abdominal pain, one would assume it would be an important diagnostic tool, particularly at the RH, where tests/imaging studies are rare. However, our pilot study indicates that sonography provides important diagnostic information in only a minority of patients with acute abdominal pain. Sonography was more important at the rural hospital than at the university hospital. Further costly examinations are generally ordered for verification, but these additional tests change the final treatment plan in very few patients.

Factors related to treatment intensity in Swiss primary care

BACKGROUND: Questions about the existence of supplier-induced demand emerge repeatedly in discussions about governing Swiss health care. This study therefore aimed to evaluate the interrelationship between structural factors of supply and the volume of services that are provided by primary care physicians in Switzerland. METHODS: The study was designed as a cross-sectional investigation, based on the complete claims data from all Swiss health care insurers for the year 2004, which covered information from 6087 primary care physicians and 4.7 million patients. Utilization-based health service areas were constructed and used as spatial units to analyze effects of density of supply. Hierarchical linear models were applied to analyze the data. RESULTS: The data showed that, within a service area, a higher density of primary care physicians was associated with higher mortality rates and specialist density but not with treatment intensity in primary care. Higher specialist density was weakly associated with higher mortality rates and with higher treatment intensity density of primary care physicians. Annual physician-level data indicate a disproportionate increase of supplied services irrespective of the size of the number of patients treated during the same year and, even in high volume practices, no rationing but a paradoxical inducement of consultations occurred. The results provide empirical evidence that higher densities of primary care physicians, specialists and the availability of out-patient hospital clinics in a given area are associated with higher volume of supplied services per patient in primary care practices. Analyses stratified by language regions showed differences that emphasize the effect of the cantonal based (fragmented) governance of Swiss health care. CONCLUSION: The study shows high volumes in Swiss primary care and provides evidence that the volume of supply is not driven by medical needs alone. Effects related to the competition for patients between primary care physicians, specialists and out-patient hospital clinics and an association with the system of reimbursing services on a fee-for-service basis can not be excluded.

Age modeling of young non-varved lake sediments: methods and limits. Examples from two lakes in Central Chile

High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

Patient characteristics but not virulence factors discriminate between asymptomatic and symptomatic E. coli bacteriuria in the hospital

Background Escherichia coli is a common cause of asymptomatic and symptomatic bacteriuria in hospitalized patients. Asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) is frequently treated with antibiotics without a clear indication. Our goal was to determine patient and pathogen factors suggestive of ASB. Methods We conducted a 12-month prospective cohort study of adult inpatients with E. coli bacteriuria seen at a tertiary care hospital in St. Louis, Missouri, USA. Urine cultures were taken at the discretion of treating physicians. Bacterial isolates were tested for 14 putative virulence genes using high-throughput dot-blot hybridization. Results The median age of the 287 study patients was 65 (19–101) years; 78% were female. Seventy percent had community-acquired bacteriuria. One-hundred ten (38.3%) patients had ASB and 177 (61.7%) had symptomatic urinary tract infection (sUTI). Asymptomatic patients were more likely than symptomatic patients to have congestive heart failure (p = 0.03), a history of myocardial infarction (p = 0.01), chronic pulmonary disease (p = 0.045), peripheral vascular disease (p = 0.04), and dementia (p = 0.03). Patients with sUTI were more likely to be neutropenic at the time of bacteriuria (p = 0.046). Chronic pulmonary disease [OR 2.1 (95% CI 1.04, 4.1)] and dementia [OR 2.4 (95% CI 1.02, 5.8)] were independent predictors for asymptomatic bacteriuria. Absence of pyuria was not predictive of ASB. None of the individual virulence genes tested were associated with ASB nor was the total number of genes. Conclusions Asymptomatic E. coli bacteriuria in hospitalized patients was frequent and more common in patients with dementia and chronic pulmonary disease. Bacterial virulence factors could not discriminate symptomatic from asymptomatic bacteriurias. Asymptomatic E. coli bacteriuria cannot be predicted by virulence screening.