Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Pricing the option adjust spread of Brazilian Eurobonds

This paper presents results of a pricing system to compute the option adjusted spread ("DAS") of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian firms. The system computes the "DAS" over US treasury rates taktng imo account the embedded options present on these bonds. These options can be calls ("callable bond"), puts ("putable bond") or combinations ("callable and putable bond"). The pricing model takes into account the evolution of the term structure along time, is compatible with the observable market term structure and is able to compute risk measures such as duration and convexity, and pricing and hedging of options on these bonds. Examples show the ejJects of the embedded options on the spread and risk measures as well as the ejJects on the spread due to variations on the volatility parameters ofthe short rate.

Stochastic discount factor bounds and rare events: a review

We aim to provide a review of the stochastic discount factor bounds usually applied to diagnose asset pricing models. In particular, we mainly discuss the bounds used to analyze the disaster model of Barro (2006). Our attention is focused in this disaster model since the stochastic discount factor bounds that are applied to study the performance of disaster models usually consider the approach of Barro (2006). We first present the entropy bounds that provide a diagnosis of the analyzed disaster model which are the methods of Almeida and Garcia (2012, 2016); Ghosh et al. (2016). Then, we discuss how their results according to the disaster model are related to each other and also present the findings of other methodologies that are similar to these bounds but provide different evidence about the performance of the framework developed by Barro (2006).

Evaluation Method for Strategic Investments

Real Options Analysis (ROA) has become a complimentary tool for engineering economics. It has become popular due to the limitations of conventional engineering valuation methods; specifically, the assumptions of uncertainty. Industry is seeking to quantify the value of engineering investments with uncertainty. One problem with conventional tools are that they may assume that cash flows are certain, therefore minimizing the possibility of the uncertainty of future values. Real options analysis provides a solution to this problem, but has been used sparingly by practitioners. This paper seeks to provide a new model, referred to as the Beta Distribution Real Options Pricing Model (BDROP), which addresses these limitations and can be easily used by practitioners. The positive attributes of this new model include unconstrained market assumptions, robust representation of the underlying asset‟s uncertainty, and an uncomplicated methodology. This research demonstrates the use of the model to evaluate the use of automation for inventory control.

Impact of the Level of Disclosure of Financial Information on the Pricing of Shares in the Context of Adverse Selection: an experimental research

Managers know more about the performance of the organization than investors, which makes the disclosure of information a possible strategy for competitive differentiation, minimizing adverse selection. This paper's main goal is to analyze whether or not an entity's level of diclosure may affect the risk perception of individuals and the process of evaluating their shares. The survey was carried out in an experimental study with 456 subjects. In a stock market simulation, we investigated the pricing of the stocks of two companies with different levels of information disclosure at four separate stages. The results showed that, when other variables are constant, the level of disclosure of an entity can affect the expectations of individuals and the process of evaluating their shares. A higher level of disclosure by an entity affected the value of its share and the other company's.

Houses built from accommodating cabins

The current economic crisis has meant, particularly in Spain, the almost cessation of new buildings construction. This deep crisis will mean in future an irreversible change in the Spanish construction model, based to date almost exclusively on the brick. After focusing on the Spanish property boom and examining its impact on the concept of housing (in a few years the house has moved forward from being contemplated exclusively as a primary good to be also considered a capital asset), we analyse the influence that this transformation has had on architecture (housing typology, building methods, the architectural profession and the architect training) and offers architectural alternatives –trough the university– to the present crisis. The project “Houses built from accommodating cabins” is part of a larger research within the line “Modular Architecture” developed by the Research Group “Design and Industrial Production”, belonging to the Technical University of Madrid, which aims to respond to the need for decent housing at an affordable price, by offering through Internet the plans, resources and other technical details required to build a house oneself. The proposed houses are built from the combination of industrially made modules (accommodation cabins, which are prefabricated modules usually used as provisional constructions in conventional building works), prefabricated subsystems and other catalogue components available on the market, all they set together by dry joints.

PADRÕES DE PRODUTIVIDADE EM PESQUISA NA LITERATURA DE FINANÇAS: UM ESTUDO BIBLIOMÉTRICO NOS PRINCIPAIS PERIÓDICOS CIENTÍFICOS NACIONAIS NO PERÍODO DE 2005 A 2014

A Administração Financeira surge no início do século XIX juntamente com o movimento de consolidação das grandes empresas e a formação dos mercados nacionais americano enquanto que no Brasil os primeiros estudos ocorrem a partir da segunda metade do século XX. Desde entãoo país conseguiu consolidar alguns centros de excelência em pesquisa, formar grupo significativo de pesquisadores seniores e expandir as áreas de pesquisa no campo, contudo, ainda são poucos os trabalhos que buscam retratar as características da produtividade científica em Finanças. Buscando contribuir para a melhor compreensão do comportamento produtivo dessa área a presente pesquisa estuda sua produção científica, materializada na forma de artigos digitais, publicados em 24 conceituados periódicos nacionais classificados nos estratos Qualis/CAPES A2, B1 e B2 da Área de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo. Para tanto são aplicadas a Lei de Bradford, Lei do Elitismo de Price e Lei de Lotka. Pela Lei de Bradford são identificadas três zonas de produtividade sendo o núcleo formado por três revistas, estando uma delas classificada no estrato Qualis/CAPES B2, o que evidencia a limitação de um recorte tendo como único critério a classificação Qualis/CAPES. Para a Lei do Elitismo de Price, seja pela contagem direta ou completa, não identificamos comportamento de uma elite semelhante ao apontado pela teoria e que conta com grande número de autores com apenas uma publicação.Aplicando-se o modelo do Poder Inverso Generalizado, calculado por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO), verificamos que produtividade dos pesquisadores, quando feita pela contagem direta, se adequa àquela definida pela Lei de Lotka ao nível de α = 0,01 de significância, contudo, pela contagem completa não podemos confirmar a hipótese de homogeneidade das distribuições, além do fato de que nas duas contagens a produtividade analisada pelo parâmetro n é maior que 2 e, portanto, a produtividade do pesquisadores de finanças é menor que a defendida pela teoria.

PADRÕES DE PRODUTIVIDADE EM PESQUISA NA LITERATURA DE FINANÇAS: UM ESTUDO BIBLIOMÉTRICO NOS PRINCIPAIS PERIÓDICOS CIENTÍFICOS NACIONAIS NO PERÍODO DE 2005 A 2014

A Administração Financeira surge no início do século XIX juntamente com o movimento de consolidação das grandes empresas e a formação dos mercados nacionais americano enquanto que no Brasil os primeiros estudos ocorrem a partir da segunda metade do século XX. Desde entãoo país conseguiu consolidar alguns centros de excelência em pesquisa, formar grupo significativo de pesquisadores seniores e expandir as áreas de pesquisa no campo, contudo, ainda são poucos os trabalhos que buscam retratar as características da produtividade científica em Finanças. Buscando contribuir para a melhor compreensão do comportamento produtivo dessa área a presente pesquisa estuda sua produção científica, materializada na forma de artigos digitais, publicados em 24 conceituados periódicos nacionais classificados nos estratos Qualis/CAPES A2, B1 e B2 da Área de Administração, Ciências Contábeis e Turismo. Para tanto são aplicadas a Lei de Bradford, Lei do Elitismo de Price e Lei de Lotka. Pela Lei de Bradford são identificadas três zonas de produtividade sendo o núcleo formado por três revistas, estando uma delas classificada no estrato Qualis/CAPES B2, o que evidencia a limitação de um recorte tendo como único critério a classificação Qualis/CAPES. Para a Lei do Elitismo de Price, seja pela contagem direta ou completa, não identificamos comportamento de uma elite semelhante ao apontado pela teoria e que conta com grande número de autores com apenas uma publicação.Aplicando-se o modelo do Poder Inverso Generalizado, calculado por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO), verificamos que produtividade dos pesquisadores, quando feita pela contagem direta, se adequa àquela definida pela Lei de Lotka ao nível de α = 0,01 de significância, contudo, pela contagem completa não podemos confirmar a hipótese de homogeneidade das distribuições, além do fato de que nas duas contagens a produtividade analisada pelo parâmetro n é maior que 2 e, portanto, a produtividade do pesquisadores de finanças é menor que a defendida pela teoria.

Future Earnings Growth Volatility and the Value Premium

The value premium is well established in empirical asset pricing, but to date there is little understanding as to its fundamental drivers. We use a stochastic earnings valuation model to establish a direct link between the volatility of future earnings growth and firm value. We illustrate that risky earnings growth affects growth and value firms differently. We provide empirical evidence that the volatility of future earnings growth is a significant determinant of the value premium. Using data on individual firms and characteristic-sorted test portfolios, we also find that earnings growth volatility is significant in explaining the cross-sectional variation of stock returns. Our findings imply that the value premium is the rational consequence of accounting for risky earnings growth in the firm valuation process.

Empirical validation of CAPM

This paper pretends to show empirical evidence of the CAPM model of Sharpe-Lintner (1964) for Colombia from 2003 to 2010, whose validation is carried out using the method of Black, Jensen and Scholes (1972) but introducing certain methodological econometric type changes associated to the requirements imposed by the used sample -- Specifically, we found no empirical evidence to reject the CAPM for the Colombian economyin the period under analysis

Size anomalies in EU bank stock returns

Mestrado em Finanças

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

XII Iberian-Italian Congress of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics

"The purpose of the XII Iberian-Italian Congress of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics is to provide a meeting point for researchers in Financial Economics from different countries and research backgrounds in universities, government or financial institutions. In fact, the Congress which is currently taking place in Lisbon has been organized to encourage communication and debate among the participants as well as to reinforce the bonds between us.The current edition of the Congress is characterized by the quality and diversity of the papers that have been submitted with special attention to the International Financial Crisis and measures of risk in different financial markets. However, as the Congress Program indicates, there are also parallel sessions about traditional topics in finance such as asset pricing, insurance, corporate finance, etc.Although this Congress has always been organized alternately between Spain and Italy, this year we have the great pleasure of celebrating it in Portugal which will be included as a permanent partner." [prefácio]

Crashes, volatility, and the equity premium: Lessons from S&P 500 options

We use a novel pricing model to imply time series of diffusive volatility and jump intensity from S&P 500 index options. These two measures capture the ex ante risk assessed by investors. Using a simple general equilibrium model, we translate the implied measures of ex ante risk into an ex ante risk premium. The average premium that compensates the investor for the ex ante risks is 70% higher than the premium for realized volatility. The equity premium implied from option prices is shown to significantly predict subsequent stock market returns.