Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Dimensione di particolari sistemi lineari di curve piane

La tesi è orientata ad elaborare un’introduzione alla geometria algebrica particolarmente rivolta agli strumenti di algebra commutativa, al fine di affrontare i problemi descritti nell'ultimo paragrafo. A partire da testi basilari per l’argomento, come [A, MD] e [Ha], si introdurrà la nozione di spettro di un anello e si andranno a studiare vari casi che costituiscono una buona base per avere un panorama delle possibili strutture che si generano come schemi associati ad un anello e se ne studieranno le proprietà caratteristiche. In particolare, si analizzeranno proprietà di irriducibilità, finitezza e altro, in connessione con quelle degli anelli commutativi. Una particolare attenzione viene poi rivolta agli schemi 0-dimensionali, alle loro diverse immersioni negli spazi proiettivi ed ai problemi aperti ad essi connessi (es. determinazione della funzione di Hilbert). In questo ambito molti problemi aperti rimangono anche per questioni di semplice formulazione (ad esempio sulla dimensione di particolari spazi lineari di curve piane definite dall'imposizione di singolarità lungo schemi 0-dimensionali).

Measurement of the elastic electron-proton cross section and separation of the electric and magnetic form factor in the Q 2 range from 0.004 to 1 (GeV/c) 2

The electromagnetic form factors of the proton are fundamental quantities sensitive to the distribution of charge and magnetization inside the proton. Precise knowledge of the form factors, in particular of the charge and magnetization radii provide strong tests for theory in the non-perturbative regime of QCD. However, the existing data at Q^2 below 1 (GeV/c)^2 are not precise enough for a hard test of theoretical predictions.rnrnFor a more precise determination of the form factors, within this work more than 1400 cross sections of the reaction H(e,e′)p were measured at the Mainz Microtron MAMI using the 3-spectrometer-facility of the A1-collaboration. The data were taken in three periods in the years 2006 and 2007 using beam energies of 180, 315, 450, 585, 720 and 855 MeV. They cover the Q^2 region from 0.004 to 1 (GeV/c)^2 with counting rate uncertainties below 0.2% for most of the data points. The relative luminosity of the measurements was determined using one of the spectrometers as a luminosity monitor. The overlapping acceptances of the measurements maximize the internal redundancy of the data and allow, together with several additions to the standard experimental setup, for tight control of systematic uncertainties.rnTo account for the radiative processes, an event generator was developed and implemented in the simulation package of the analysis software which works without peaking approximation by explicitly calculating the Bethe-Heitler and Born Feynman diagrams for each event.rnTo separate the form factors and to determine the radii, the data were analyzed by fitting a wide selection of form factor models directly to the measured cross sections. These fits also determined the absolute normalization of the different data subsets. The validity of this method was tested with extensive simulations. The results were compared to an extraction via the standard Rosenbluth technique.rnrnThe dip structure in G_E that was seen in the analysis of the previous world data shows up in a modified form. When compared to the standard-dipole form factor as a smooth curve, the extracted G_E exhibits a strong change of the slope around 0.1 (GeV/c)^2, and in the magnetic form factor a dip around 0.2 (GeV/c)^2 is found. This may be taken as indications for a pion cloud. For higher Q^2, the fits yield larger values for G_M than previous measurements, in agreement with form factor ratios from recent precise polarized measurements in the Q2 region up to 0.6 (GeV/c)^2.rnrnThe charge and magnetic rms radii are determined as rn⟨r_e⟩=0.879 ± 0.005(stat.) ± 0.004(syst.) ± 0.002(model) ± 0.004(group) fm,rn⟨r_m⟩=0.777 ± 0.013(stat.) ± 0.009(syst.) ± 0.005(model) ± 0.002(group) fm.rnThis charge radius is significantly larger than theoretical predictions and than the radius of the standard dipole. However, it is in agreement with earlier results measured at the Mainz linear accelerator and with determinations from Hydrogen Lamb shift measurements. The extracted magnetic radius is smaller than previous determinations and than the standard-dipole value.

Sviluppo e convalida di un modello Monte Carlo per ottenere le curve isodose all'interno di una sala a raggi x nell'ospedale clinico Universitario di Valencia

Per prevedere i campi di dose attorno a dispositivi radiologici, vengono sviluppati e validati, per mezzo di misure sperimentali, modelli Monte Carlo (utilizzando MCNP5). Lo scopo di questo lavoro è quello di valutare le dosi ricevute da persone che operano all'interno della sala di raggi X, mentre il tubo è in funzione. Il tubo utilizzato è un DI-1000/0.6-1.3 della azienda svizzera COMET AG. Per prima cosa si è ottenuto lo spettro di emissione dei raggi X con la Tally F5 simulando l'interazione di un fascio di elettroni contro un anodo di tungsteno. Successivamente, con una F4MESH, si è ricavato il flusso di fotoni in ogni cella della mesh tridimensionale definita sulla sala; la conversione a dose equivalente è ottenuta per mezzo di fattori di conversione estratti dal NIST. I risultati della Tally FMESH vengono confrontati con i valori di dose misurati con una camera di ionizzazione Radcal 1800 cc. I risultati sono ottenuti per le seguenti condizioni operative: 40 kVp, 100 mA, 200 mAs, fuoco fine e filtro in alluminio di spessore 0,8 mm. Confrontando con le misure sperimentali si osserva che tali valori differiscono da quelli simulati di circa un 10%. Possiamo quindi prevedere con buona approssimazione la distribuzione di dose mentre il tubo è in funzione. In questo modo è possibile ridurre al minimo la dose ricevuta dall'operatore.

Short anterior correction of the thoracolumbar/lumbar curve in King 1 idiopathic scoliosis: the behaviour of the instrumented and non-instrumented curves and the trunk balance

This is a retrospective clinical, radiological and patient outcome assessment of 21 consecutive patients with King 1 idiopathic adolescent scoliosis treated by short anterior selective fusion of the major thoracolumbar/lumbar (TL/L) curve. Three-dimensional changes of both curves, changes in trunk balance and rib hump were evaluated. The minimal follow-up was 24 months (max. 83). The Cobb angle of the TL/L curve was 52 degrees (45-67 degrees) with a flexibility of 72% (40-100%). The average length of the main curve was 5 (3-8) segments. An average of 3 (2-4) segments was fused using rigid single rod implants with side-loading screws. The Cobb angle of the thoracic curve was 33 degrees (18-50 degrees) with a flexibility of 69% (29-100%). The thoracic curve in bending was less than 20 degrees in 17 patients, and 20-25 degrees in 4 patients. In the TL/L curve there was an improvement of the Cobb angle of 67%, of the apex vertebral rotation of 51% and of the apex vertebral translation of 74%. The Cobb angle of the thoracic curve improved 29% spontaneously. Shoulder balance improved significantly from an average preoperative imbalance of 14.5-3.1 mm at the last follow-up. Seventy-five percent of the patients with preoperative positive shoulder imbalance (higher on the side of the thoracic curve) had levelled shoulders at the last follow-up. C7 offset improved from a preoperative 19.8 (0-40) to 4.8 (0-18) mm at the last follow-up. There were no significant changes in rotation, translation of the thoracic curve and the clinical rib hump. There were no significant changes in thoracic kyphosis or lumbar lordosis. The average score of the SRS-24 questionnaire at the last follow-up was 91 points (max. 120). We conclude that short anterior selective fusion of the TL/L curve in King 1 scoliosis with a thoracic curve bending to 25 degrees or less (Type 5 according to Lenke classification) results in a satisfactory correction and a balanced spine. Short fusions leave enough mobile lumbar segments for the establishment of global spinal balance. A positive shoulder imbalance is not a contraindication for this procedure. Structural interbody grafts are not necessary to maintain lumbar lordosis.

The effect of a myocardial infarction on the normalized time-varying elastance curve

It has been suggested that the shape of the normalized time-varying elastance curve [E(n)(t(n))] is conserved in different cardiac pathologies. We hypothesize, however, that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively after myocardial infarction (MI). Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 9) were anesthetized, and the left anterior descending coronary artery was ligated to provoke the MI. A sham-operated control group (CTRL) (n = 10) was treated without the MI. Two months later, a conductance catheter was inserted into the left ventricle (LV). The LV pressure and volume were measured and the E(n)(t(n)) derived. Slopes of E(n)(t(n)) during the preejection period (alpha(PEP)), ejection period (alpha(EP)), and their ratio (beta = alpha(EP)/alpha(PEP)) were calculated, together with the characteristic decay time during isovolumic relaxation (tau) and the normalized elastance at end diastole (E(min)(n)). MI provoked significant LV chamber dilatation, thus a loss in cardiac output (-33%), ejection fraction (-40%), and stroke volume (-30%) (P < 0.05). Also, it caused significant calcium increase (17-fold), fibrosis (2-fold), and LV hypertrophy. End-systolic elastance dropped from 0.66 +/- 0.31 mmHg/microl (CTRL) to 0.34 +/- 0.11 mmHg/microl (MI) (P < 0.05). Normalized elastance was significantly reduced in the MI group during the preejection, ejection, and diastolic periods (P < 0.05). The slope of E(n)(t(n)) during the alpha(PEP) and beta were significantly altered after MI (P < 0.05). Furthermore, tau and end-diastolic E(min)(n) were both significantly augmented in the MI group. We conclude that the E(n)(t(n)) differs quantitatively in all phases of the heart cycle, between normal and hearts post-MI. This should be considered when utilizing the single-beat concept.

Blood concentration curve of cyclosporine: impact of itraconazole in lung transplant recipients

Although the influence of cytochrome P450 inhibitory drugs on the area under the curve (AUC) of cyclosporine (CsA) has been described, data concerning the impact of these substances on the shape of the blood concentration curve are scarce. By assessment of CsA blood levels before and 1, 2, and 4 hr after oral intake (C0, C1, C2, and C4, respectively) CsA profiling examinations were performed in 20 lung transplant recipients taking 400 mg, 200 mg, and no itraconazole, respectively. The three groups showed comparable results for C0, C2, and AUC(0-12). Greater values were found for Cmax, Cmax-C0, peak-trough fluctuation and rise to Cmax in favor of the non-itraconazole group. Additionally, tmax was shorter in the non-itraconazole group. Comedication with the metabolic inhibitor itraconazole is associated with a flattening of the CsA blood concentration profile in lung transplant recipients. These changes cannot be assessed by isolated C0, C2, or AUC(0-12) values alone.

Learning curve for robotic-assisted laparoscopic colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Robotic-assisted laparoscopic surgery (RALS) is evolving as an important surgical approach in the field of colorectal surgery. We aimed to evaluate the learning curve for RALS procedures involving resections of the rectum and rectosigmoid. METHODS: A series of 50 consecutive RALS procedures were performed between August 2008 and September 2009. Data were entered into a retrospective database and later abstracted for analysis. The surgical procedures included abdominoperineal resection (APR), anterior rectosigmoidectomy (AR), low anterior resection (LAR), and rectopexy (RP). Demographic data and intraoperative parameters including docking time (DT), surgeon console time (SCT), and total operative time (OT) were analyzed. The learning curve was evaluated using the cumulative sum (CUSUM) method. RESULTS: The procedures performed for 50 patients (54% male) included 25 AR (50%), 15 LAR (30%), 6 APR (12%), and 4 RP (8%). The mean age of the patients was 54.4 years, the mean BMI was 27.8 kg/m(2), and the median American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification was 2. The series had a mean DT of 14 min, a mean SCT of 115.1 min, and a mean OT of 246.1 min. The DT and SCT accounted for 6.3% and 46.8% of the OT, respectively. The SCT learning curve was analyzed. The CUSUM(SCT) learning curve was best modeled as a parabola, with equation CUSUM(SCT) in minutes equal to 0.73 × case number(2) - 31.54 × case number - 107.72 (R = 0.93). The learning curve consisted of three unique phases: phase 1 (the initial 15 cases), phase 2 (the middle 10 cases), and phase 3 (the subsequent cases). Phase 1 represented the initial learning curve, which spanned 15 cases. The phase 2 plateau represented increased competence with the robotic technology. Phase 3 was achieved after 25 cases and represented the mastery phase in which more challenging cases were managed. CONCLUSIONS: The three phases identified with CUSUM analysis of surgeon console time represented characteristic stages of the learning curve for robotic colorectal procedures. The data suggest that the learning phase was achieved after 15 to 25 cases.

The J-curve in HIV: low and moderate alcohol intake predicts mortality but not the occurrence of major cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVES In HIV-negative populations light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality than alcohol abstention. Whether the same holds true for HIV-infected individuals has not been evaluated in detail. DESIGN Cohort study METHODS:: Adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with follow-up after August 2005 were included. We categorized alcohol consumption into: abstention, low (1-9 g/d), moderate (10-29 g/d in females and 10-39g/d in men) and high alcohol intake. Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease free survival (combined endpoint) as well as cardiovascular disease events (CADE) and overall survival. Baseline and time-updated risk factors for CADE were included in the models. RESULTS Among 9,741 individuals included, there were 788 events of major CADE or death during 46,719 years of follow-up, corresponding to an incidence of 1.69 events/100 person-years. Follow-up according to alcohol consumption level was 51% abstention, 20% low, 23% moderate and 6% high intake. As compared to abstention, low (hazard ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.98) and moderate alcohol intake (0.78, 0.64-0.95) were associated with a lower incidence of the combined endpoint. There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and CADE. CONCLUSIONS Compared to abstention, low and moderate alcohol intake were associated with a better CADE-free survival. However, this result was mainly driven by mortality and the specific impact of drinking patterns and type of alcoholic beverage on this outcome remains to be determined.

Body mass index trajectories and predictors among 3rd to 12th graders using growth curve mixture modeling the Child and Adolescent Trial for Cardiovascular Health (CATCH) study

This dissertation examined body mass index (BMI) growth trajectories and the effects of gender, ethnicity, dietary intake, and physical activity (PA) on BMI growth trajectories among 3rd to 12th graders (9-18 years of age). Growth curve model analysis was performed using data from The Child and Adolescent Trial for Cardiovascular Health (CATCH) study. The study population included 2909 students who were followed up from grades 3-12. The main outcome was BMI at grades 3, 4, 5, 8, and 12. ^ The results revealed that BMI growth differed across two distinct developmental periods of childhood and adolescence. Rate of BMI growth was faster in middle childhood (9-11 years old or 3rd - 5th grades) than in adolescence (11-18 years old or 5th - 12th grades). Students with higher BMI at 3rd grade (baseline) had faster rates of BMI growth. Three groups of students with distinct BMI growth trajectories were identified: high, average, and low. ^ Black and Hispanic children were more likely to be in the groups with higher baseline BMI and faster rates of BMI growth over time. The effects of gender or ethnicity on BMI growth differed across the three groups. The effects of ethnicity on BMI growth were weakened as the children aged. The effects of gender on BMI growth were attenuated in the groups with a large proportion of black and Hispanic children, i.e., “high” or “average” BMI trajectory group. After controlling for gender, ethnicity, and age at baseline, in the “high BMI trajectory”, rate of yearly BMI growth in middle childhood increased 0.102 for every 500 Kcals increase (p=0.049). No significant effects of percentage of energy from total fat and saturated fat on BMI growth were found. Baseline BMI increased 0.041 for every 30 minutes increased in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) in the “low BMI trajectory”, while Baseline BMI decreased 0.345 for every 30 minutes increased in vigorous PA (VPA) in the “high BMI trajectory”. ^ Childhood overweight and obesity interventions should start at the earliest possible ages, prior to 3rd grade and continue through grade school. Interventions should focus on all children, but specifically black and Hispanic children, who are more likely to be highest at-risk. Promoting VPA earlier in childhood is important for preventing overweight and obesity among children and adolescents. Interventions should target total energy intake, rather than only percentage of energy from total fat or saturated fat. ^

Proglacial river dataset from the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River northern tributary, Southwest Greenland, 2008 - 2013, version 2.0

The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for one sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2013 This river is a tributary to the Watson River discharging into Kangerlussuaq Fjord by the town of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure are also provided. Compared to version 1.0 of the dataset, this dataset used a total of 36 in situ discharge observations collected between 2008 and 2012 to construct the rating curve. Furthermore, data of Station AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 have been removed from version 2.0 because these values were likely caused by backflow when a jokulhlaup from a large glacier dammed lake caused increased water levels in the downstreams lake. Thus, data measured at AK-004-001 between 2010-09-06T11:30 to 2010-09-07T13:30 are not representative for the AK-004 catchment.