Producción en masa, economía monetaria y vitalidad comercial del Mediterráneo

Se argumenta que la arqueología y la historia monetaria reúnen entre sí el potencial para proyectar una imagen de la economía romana muy diferente a la que sugieren los estereotipos minimalistas. Se discuten las implicancias de esta argumentación para el período tardoantiguo en particular, rechazando el catastrofismo con el que Rostovtzeff concluía su célebre historia del temprano imperio. En el imperio tardío la fortaleza de los intereses privados se mantuvo tan firme como siempre, en una economía caracterizada por la integración de los negocios públicos y privados antes que por un supuesto conflicto o antagonismo entre ambos. El imperio de Oriente conservó estas tendencias en forma pura, con niveles sostenidos de comercio y circulación monetaria hasta las décadas centrales del siglo VII. En este trabajo se argumenta que pensar en términos de ciclos económicos sería para los historiadores más razonable que la patología convencional de la "declinación", "decadencia", etc. Este patrón es notablemente evidente en la historia económica bizantina, marcada por abruptas fluctuaciones entre los siglos V y XII.

Producción en masa, economía monetaria y vitalidad comercial del Mediterráneo

Se argumenta que la arqueología y la historia monetaria reúnen entre sí el potencial para proyectar una imagen de la economía romana muy diferente a la que sugieren los estereotipos minimalistas. Se discuten las implicancias de esta argumentación para el período tardoantiguo en particular, rechazando el catastrofismo con el que Rostovtzeff concluía su célebre historia del temprano imperio. En el imperio tardío la fortaleza de los intereses privados se mantuvo tan firme como siempre, en una economía caracterizada por la integración de los negocios públicos y privados antes que por un supuesto conflicto o antagonismo entre ambos. El imperio de Oriente conservó estas tendencias en forma pura, con niveles sostenidos de comercio y circulación monetaria hasta las décadas centrales del siglo VII. En este trabajo se argumenta que pensar en términos de ciclos económicos sería para los historiadores más razonable que la patología convencional de la "declinación", "decadencia", etc. Este patrón es notablemente evidente en la historia económica bizantina, marcada por abruptas fluctuaciones entre los siglos V y XII.

Producción en masa, economía monetaria y vitalidad comercial del Mediterráneo

Se argumenta que la arqueología y la historia monetaria reúnen entre sí el potencial para proyectar una imagen de la economía romana muy diferente a la que sugieren los estereotipos minimalistas. Se discuten las implicancias de esta argumentación para el período tardoantiguo en particular, rechazando el catastrofismo con el que Rostovtzeff concluía su célebre historia del temprano imperio. En el imperio tardío la fortaleza de los intereses privados se mantuvo tan firme como siempre, en una economía caracterizada por la integración de los negocios públicos y privados antes que por un supuesto conflicto o antagonismo entre ambos. El imperio de Oriente conservó estas tendencias en forma pura, con niveles sostenidos de comercio y circulación monetaria hasta las décadas centrales del siglo VII. En este trabajo se argumenta que pensar en términos de ciclos económicos sería para los historiadores más razonable que la patología convencional de la "declinación", "decadencia", etc. Este patrón es notablemente evidente en la historia económica bizantina, marcada por abruptas fluctuaciones entre los siglos V y XII.

The impact of unstable aids on consumption volatility in developing countries

In recent years, a large and expanding literature has examined the properties of developing economies with regard to the macroeconomic cycle.1 One such property that is characteristic of developing economies is large fluctuations in consumption. Meanwhile, aid for the low income countries is extremely volatile, and under certain circumstances, the volatile aid amplifies the consumption volatility. This document examines whether it is possible that the volatile aid yields high consumption volatility in African countries that constitute the majority of the low income countries. Our numerical analysis reveals that the strongly influential aid disbursements yield a considerably large fluctuation in consumption.

Offshoring of Information-intensive Services: Structural Breaks in Industry Life Cycles. ACES Working Papers, August 2010

The emergence of widespread offshoring of information-intensive services is arguably one of the more impactful phenomena to transform business in the last ten years. A growing body of research has examined the firm-level drivers andlocation factors (i.e., the why's and where's) of services offshoring. However, little empirical research has examined the maturation sequencing (or when's) of services offshoring. Adopting industry life cycle theory as a framework, the key research questions examined in the paper are: when do different categories of offshoring services provision change from being emergent sectors to more mature ones, and how does the timing of this sequence relate to the type of service offshored. Using a database of 1420 offshore services FDI projects, we find that the value-add as well as the information sensitivity of the service category are related to when the service categories progress through the industry life cycle. Implications for future waves of service offshoring are discussed.

(Table 1) Ooze/chalk cycles: frequency of occurrence at DSDP Leg 74 Sites

Shallow- to deep-water environments are represented by the sediments and rocks recovered from the Walvis Ridge- Angola Basin transect. These calcareous oozes, chalks, limestones, and volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks are used to define and correlate four lithostratigraphic units. The sediments were deposited in cycles which represent recurring tectonic or Oceanographic events and may be related to climatic fluctuations and orbital perturbations. Turbidites are the most common and easily identified sedimentary cycle. They are Late Cretaceous to Paleocene in age and are repeated in intervals ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of years. They are also found interbedded between basalt layers. Turbidites are easily distinguished from the other cycles present by their sedimentary structures, mineral composition, alteration products, and physical properties (GRAPE) data. Large-scale turbidites, debris, or slump breccias are found at or just above the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary and indicate an event of considerable energy possibly related to intense tectonic activity. Diagenetic cycles, interpreted as small-scale dissolution cycles or sequences produced by biogenic activity, occur in early Paleocene chalks. The recurrence intervals average -20,000 y. but have a wide range of values. Variations in CaCO3 content, color, gradational boundaries, and trace fossil content characterize these sediments. These cycles reflect bottom-water conditions. Ooze-chalk cycles occur in upper Oligocene to upper Paleocene sediments and represent conditions that once existed at the sediment/water interface where they obtained their diagenetic potential. These oscillations are repeated over tens of thousands of years and may have no modern analogs. Color variations in sediments at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary indicate local fluctuations in oxygen content within the sediments or the water column. This situation lasted for several hundred thousand years and is not repeated elsewhere in the sequence. Large dissolution cycles are recorded in the sediments at Site 527 that are of middle Miocene and early Oligocene to middle Eocene age. During this time the seafloor at this site appears to have been located at or subsided to a depth occupied by a fluctuating CCD and lysocline.

Internationale Konjunkturverbunde

After conceptual clarification of international business cycle and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate times series of this indicator for 30 countries from 1970-2000. After some plausibility checks, we refer to these series to test a number of hypotheses. Cross correlations reveal a high degree of interconnectedness. Moreover, the number of highly positive correlations has increased over time, whereas the number of low and moderate correlations has decreased. A principal components analysis yields a first component that can be interpreted as the world business cycle. The further components suggest the existence of a Scandinavian-Anglo-Saxon business cycle as well as of another, smaller group of Anglo-Saxon countries that move together. This finding is replicated by a hierarchical cluster analysis, which in addition suggests a closely integrated group of non-Scandinavian and non-English speaking European countries plus Japan and Israel. Furthermore, there is indication for some, albeit weak business cycle integration in Southeast Asia and in South America. The international business cycle is thus found to have a hierarchical structure.

A temporary loss of pace or the "middle income trap" - a commentary on the tasks for Hungary's economic development

The latest Hungarian economic growth data, though favourable, do not let us forget that in the longer term growth is weak compared to the preceding period – as well as to the performance of the East-Central European region, which is more dynamic than the European average. In order to make sense of the past decade’s relative loss of pace and lay the foundations for future development policy, it is worth placing Hungary’s case in the context of the slowing tempo typical of middle-income countries. The economic development policies currently pursued by the government are aimed at increasing output in the processing industry, and by extension exports, while relevant international experience advises that it is the higher value-added activities of the global value chain, particularly business services, which should be developed further. In this way real wages and income levels could be increased, and the economy would be less exposed to the fluctuations of international cycles.

The response of lake margin sedimentary systems to climatically driven lake level fluctuations : Middle Devonian, Orcadian Basin, Scotland

Peer reviewed

The response of lake margin sedimentary systems to climatically driven lake level fluctuations : Middle Devonian, Orcadian Basin, Scotland

Peer reviewed

The response of lake margin sedimentary systems to climatically driven lake level fluctuations : Middle Devonian, Orcadian Basin, Scotland

Peer reviewed

Cycles saisonniers, reproduction et qualite des ovocytes chez Pecten maximus en rade de Brest

This work is part of the program, "recruitment determinism in scallops" initiated in 1992 by the "Contrat de Baie". The aim of this research was to explain interannual abundance fluctuations observed for Pecten maximus, in the Bay of Brest. To this end an analytical approach to the life cycle of the species was undertaken to determine its critical phases. A phase may be considered as "critical" if the mortality rate at its level varies from one year to the other. Using data from 1989 to 1994, a precise time-table of the "physiological year" of the scallop in the Bay of Brest was determined. Fecundity and gamete production kinetics were estimated from the annual variation in the weight indices of the gonad. In the laboratory, egg quality was estimated following stimulated spawning of newly caught individuals. The digestive activity was estimated by amylase activity measurements during a three year period. Spawning lasts 6 months in the Bay of Brest from March to October. Spawning, muscle and digestive gland growths, are intimately linked to phytoplancton blooms. Gonad production shows a maximum in April-May, and two relative minima in Match and November. These results, which provide detailed understanding of the adult's annual cycle in the Bay of Brest, will be used to interpret the relationship between the annual cycle and larval and post larval abundance and survival. Already, these results are being used to improve spat production in hatcheries.

A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

Climatic fluctuations and homogenization of Northeast Brazil using precipitation data.

Before using the basic precipitation data in any agroclimatic study to assess the productivity it is important to check the data series for homogeneity. For this purpose data of 105 locations for the period 1912-1981 over northeast Brazil were used. The preliminary study indicate nonhomogeneity in the time series during 1940's at few locations. The amplitude of variation of time series when taken as 10-year moving average show quite different for different regions. It appears that this amplitude is related to time of onset of effective rains in some extent. There is also great diversity in the fluctuations. They present a great regional diversity. Some diversity. Some of the data in the low latitudes indicate presence of four cycles namely 52, 26, 13 & 6.5. years. The 52-year cycle is also evident in the case of onset of southwest Monsoon over a low latitude zone (Kerala Coast) in India. In the case of south Africa the prominent cycles are 60, 30, 15 & 10 similar situation appears to be present in the higher latitudes of northeast Brazil.