The epidemiologic transition to chronic diseases in developing countries: cardiovascular mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

The occurrence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and related risk factors was evaluated in Seychelles, a middle level income country, as accumulating evidence supports increasing rates of CVD in developing countries. CVD mortality was obtained from vital statistics for two periods, 1984-5 and 1991-3. CVD morbidity was estimated by retrospective review of discharge diagnoses for all admissions to medical wards in 1990-1992. Levels of CVD risk factors in the population were assessed in 1989 through a population-based survey. In 1991-93, standardized mortality rates were in males and females respectively, 80.9 and 38.8 for cerebrovascular disease and 92.9 and 47.0 for ischemic heart disease. CVD accounted for 25.2% of all admissions to medical wards. Among the general population aged 35-64, 30% had high blood pressure, 52% of males smoked, and 28% of females were obese. These findings substantiate the current health transition to CVD in Seychelles. More generally, epidemiologic data on CVD mortality, morbidity, and related risk factors, as well as similar indicators for other chronic diseases, should more consistently appear in national and international reports of human development to help emphasize, in the health policy making scene, the current transition to chronic diseases in developing countries and the subsequent need for appropriate control and prevention programs.

Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Circulating carotenoids and risk of breast cancer: pooled analysis of eight prospective studies.

Background Carotenoids, micronutrients in fruits and vegetables, may reduce breast cancer risk. Most, but not all, past studies of circulating carotenoids and breast cancer have found an inverse association with at least one carotenoid, although the specific carotenoid has varied across studies. Methods We conducted a pooled analysis of eight cohort studies comprising more than 80% of the world's published prospective data on plasma or serum carotenoids and breast cancer, including 3055 case subjects and 3956 matched control subjects. To account for laboratory differences and examine population differences across studies, we recalibrated participant carotenoid levels to a common standard by reassaying 20 plasma or serum samples from each cohort together at the same laboratory. Using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for several breast cancer risk factors, we calculated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using quintiles defined among the control subjects from all studies. All P values are two-sided. Results Statistically significant inverse associations with breast cancer were observed for α-carotene (top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.71 to 1.05, Ptrend = .04), β-carotene (RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98, Ptrend = .02), lutein+zeaxanthin (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.70 to 1.01, Ptrend = .05), lycopene (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.99, Ptrend = .02), and total carotenoids (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.96, Ptrend = .01). β-Cryptoxanthin was not statistically significantly associated with risk. Tests for heterogeneity across studies were not statistically significant. For several carotenoids, associations appeared stronger for estrogen receptor negative (ER(-)) than for ER(+) tumors (eg, β-carotene: ER(-): top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.77, Ptrend = .001; ER(+): RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.04, Ptrend = .06; Pheterogeneity = .01). Conclusions This comprehensive prospective analysis suggests women with higher circulating levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene, and total carotenoids may be at reduced risk of breast cancer.

Previous thyroid disease and risk of thyroid cancer in Switzerland

A hospital-based case-control study of 86 cases of thyroid cancer and 317 controls was done in the Swiss Canton of Vaud. Patients with thyroid cancer tended to be better educated (odds ratio [OR] 2.1 for greater than or equal to 14 vs. less than or equal to 8 years of education 95% CI 1.1-4.1) and of higher social class than controls. Cases more often had a history of benign thyroid nodules (OR 25.2, 95% CI 7.6-83.6) and non-toxic goitre (OR 5.3, 95% CI 2.5-11.2). Furthermore, patients with thyroid cancer were more likely to have resided in endemic goitre areas (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.0) and to have had first-degree relatives affected by benign thyroid disease (OR 3.9, 95% CI 2.1-7.1). Therefore, this study offers quantitative evidence of the association between various thyroid diseases and the risk of thyroid cancer which, despite difficulties in the classification of benign and malignant thyroid diseases, is remarkably consistent in studies from different countries.

A multicenter, cross-sectional study on the prevalence and risk factors for nasal colonization with Staphylococcus aureus in patients admitted to children's hospitals in Switzerland.

The rate of nasal carriage of Staphylococcus aureus and associated risk factors were determined in a cross-sectional study involving Swiss children's hospitals. S. aureus was isolated in 562 of 1363 cases. In a stepwise multivariate analysis, the variables age, duration of antibiotic use, and hospitalization of a household member were independently associated with carriage of S. aureus.

Construct validity and internal reliability of a French version of FACES III in adolescents and adults

Family cohesion and adaptability, as operationalised in the Family Adaptability and Cohesion Scales III (FACES III), are two hypothesised dimensions of family functioning. We tested the properties of a French version of FACES III in school-children (mean age: 13 years; S.D:0.85) recruited from the general population and their parents. Separate confirmatory factor analyses were performed for adolescents and adults. The results of both analyses were compatible with a two-factor structure similar to that proposed by the authors of the original instrument. However, orthogonality between the two factors was only supported in the adult data. Internal reliability estimates were 0.78 and 0.68 in adolescents and 0.82 and 0.65 in adults, for cohesion and adaptability respectively.

Frailty and risk for heart failure in older adults: The health, aging, and body composition study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the association between frailty and risk for heart failure (HF) in older adults. BACKGROUND: Frailty is common in the elderly and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Impact of frailty on HF risk is not known. METHODS: We assessed the association between frailty, using the Health ABC Short Physical Performance Battery (HABC Battery) and the Gill index, and incident HF in 2825 participants aged 70 to 79 years. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 74 ± 3 years; 48% were men and 59% were white. During a median follow up of 11.4 (7.1-11.7) years, 466 participants developed HF. Compared to non-frail participants, moderate (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.71) and severe frailty (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.47) by Gill index was associated with a higher risk for HF. HABC Battery score was linearly associated with HF risk after adjusting for the Health ABC HF Model (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36 per SD decrease in score) and remained significant when controlled for death as a competing risk (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.00-1.55). Results were comparable across age, sex, and race, and in sub-groups based on diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease at baseline. Addition of HABC Battery scores to the Health ABC HF Risk Model improved discrimination (change in C-index, 0.014; 95% CI 0.018-0.010) and appropriately reclassified 13.4% (net-reclassification-improvement 0.073, 95% CI 0.021-0.125; P = .006) of participants (8.3% who developed HF and 5.1% who did not). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is independently associated with risk of HF in older adults.

Efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir-based therapy for treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.

Serum resistin concentrations and risk of new onset heart failure in older persons: the health, aging, and body composition (Health ABC) study.

OBJECTIVE: Resistin is associated with inflammation and insulin resistance and exerts direct effects on myocardial cells including hypertrophy and altered contraction. We investigated the association of serum resistin concentrations with risk for incident heart failure (HF) in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 2902 older persons without prevalent HF (age, 73.6+/-2.9 years; 48.1% men; 58.8% white) enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Correlation between baseline serum resistin concentrations (20.3+/-10.0 ng/mL) and clinical variables, biochemistry panel, markers of inflammation and insulin resistance, adipocytokines, and measures of adiposity was weak (all rho <0.25). During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 341 participants (11.8%) developed HF. Resistin was strongly associated with risk for incident HF in Cox proportional hazards models controlling for clinical variables, biomarkers, and measures of adiposity (HR, 1.15 per 10.0 ng/mL in adjusted model; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.27; P=0.003). Results were comparable across sex, race, diabetes mellitus, and prevalent and incident coronary heart disease subgroups. In participants with available left ventricular ejection fraction at HF diagnosis (265 of 341; 77.7%), association of resistin with HF risk was comparable for cases with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Serum resistin concentrations are independently associated with risk for incident HF in older persons.

Incidence, complications and risk factors for severe falls in patients on maintenance haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Falls have been insufficiently studied in patients on maintenance haemodialysis (MHD). This study assessed the incidence and complications of severe falls and the ability of risk factors, including the Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) test, to predict them in this population. METHODS: All patients on MHD from our centre were asked to participate in this survey. POMA test and a record of risk factors for falls were obtained at baseline. Severe falls, as defined by an admission in an emergency ward, were documented prospectively. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (median age 69.5 years, minimum 26 years, maximum 85 years) were enrolled. Predialytic POMA scores were low (median 20, minimum 5, maximum 26). After a mean follow-up of 20.6 months (142.2 patient-years), 31 severe falls were recorded in 24 patients (28.6%; incidence 0.22 per patient-year) and complicated by fractures in 54.8% of severe falls. In univariate analysis, age, a past history of falls, malnutrition, depression, but not POMA score, were associated with severe falls. A POMA score of >21 had a negative predictive value of 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Severe falls were common in MHD patients in this study and resulted in fractures in >50% of the cases. They were associated with ageing, a past history of falls, malnutrition and depression. Although there was a trend towards a lower POMA score in fallers as compared to non-fallers, the POMA score was not an independent predictor of severe falls in this study. These data may help to stratify the patient's risk of falling in order to target programmes to prevent falls in this population.

Common variants near MC4R are associated with fat mass, weight and risk of obesity.

To identify common variants influencing body mass index (BMI), we analyzed genome-wide association data from 16,876 individuals of European descent. After previously reported variants in FTO, the strongest association signal (rs17782313, P = 2.9 x 10(-6)) mapped 188 kb downstream of MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor), mutations of which are the leading cause of monogenic severe childhood-onset obesity. We confirmed the BMI association in 60,352 adults (per-allele effect = 0.05 Z-score units; P = 2.8 x 10(-15)) and 5,988 children aged 7-11 (0.13 Z-score units; P = 1.5 x 10(-8)). In case-control analyses (n = 10,583), the odds for severe childhood obesity reached 1.30 (P = 8.0 x 10(-11)). Furthermore, we observed overtransmission of the risk allele to obese offspring in 660 families (P (pedigree disequilibrium test average; PDT-avg) = 2.4 x 10(-4)). The SNP location and patterns of phenotypic associations are consistent with effects mediated through altered MC4R function. Our findings establish that common variants near MC4R influence fat mass, weight and obesity risk at the population level and reinforce the need for large-scale data integration to identify variants influencing continuous biomedical traits.

Prevalence and risk of Down syndrome in monozygotic and dizygotic multiple pregnancies in Europe: implications for prenatal screening.

OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of Down syndrome (DS) in multiple relative to singleton pregnancies, and compare prenatal diagnosis rates and pregnancy outcome. DESIGN: Population-based prevalence study based on EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries. SETTING: Eight European countries. POPULATION: 14.8 million births 1990-2009; 2.89% multiple births. METHODS: DS cases included livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). Zygosity is inferred from like/unlike sex for birth denominators, and from concordance for DS cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risk (RR) of DS per fetus/baby from multiple versus singleton pregnancies and per pregnancy in monozygotic/dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies. Proportion of prenatally diagnosed and pregnancy outcome. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Poisson and logistic regression stratified for maternal age, country and time. RESULTS: Overall, the adjusted (adj) RR of DS for fetus/babies from multiple versus singleton pregnancies was 0.58 (95% CI 0.53-0.62), similar for all maternal ages except for mothers over 44, for whom it was considerably lower. In 8.7% of twin pairs affected by DS, both co-twins were diagnosed with the condition. The adjRR of DS for monozygotic versus singleton pregnancies was 0.34 (95% CI 0.25-0.44) and for dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies 1.34 (95% CI 1.23-1.46). DS fetuses from multiple births were less likely to be prenatally diagnosed than singletons (adjOR 0.62 [95% CI 0.50-0.78]) and following diagnosis less likely to be TOPFA (adjOR 0.40 [95% CI 0.27-0.59]). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of DS per fetus/baby is lower in multiple than singleton pregnancies. These estimates can be used for genetic counselling and prenatal screening.

Use of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected patients enrolled in the D:A:D study: a multi-cohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Whether nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors increase the risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected individuals is unclear. Our aim was to explore whether exposure to such drugs was associated with an excess risk of myocardial infarction in a large, prospective observational cohort of HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We used Poisson regression models to quantify the relation between cumulative, recent (currently or within the preceding 6 months), and past use of zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine, lamivudine, and abacavir and development of myocardial infarction in 33 347 patients enrolled in the D:A:D study. We adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors that are unlikely to be affected by antiretroviral therapy, cohort, calendar year, and use of other antiretrovirals. FINDINGS: Over 157,912 person-years, 517 patients had a myocardial infarction. We found no associations between the rate of myocardial infarction and cumulative or recent use of zidovudine, stavudine, or lamivudine. By contrast, recent-but not cumulative-use of abacavir or didanosine was associated with an increased rate of myocardial infarction (compared with those with no recent use of the drugs, relative rate 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir and 1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.003] with didanosine); rates were not significantly increased in those who stopped these drugs more than 6 months previously compared with those who had never received these drugs. After adjustment for predicted 10-year risk of coronary heart disease, recent use of both didanosine and abacavir remained associated with increased rates of myocardial infarction (1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.004] with didanosine; 1.89, 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir). INTERPRETATION: There exists an increased risk of myocardial infarction in patients exposed to abacavir and didanosine within the preceding 6 months. The excess risk does not seem to be explained by underlying established cardiovascular risk factors and was not present beyond 6 months after drug cessation.