Organisational Values as "Attractors of Chaos": An Emerging Cultural Change to Manage Organisational Complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

CT arthrography of the glenohumeral joint: CT fluoroscopy versus conventional CT and fluoroscopy--comparison of image-guidance techniques.

PURPOSE: To compare examination time with radiologist time and to measure radiation dose of computed tomographic (CT) fluoroscopy, conventional CT, and conventional fluoroscopy as guiding modalities for shoulder CT arthrography. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Glenohumeral injection of contrast material for CT arthrography was performed in 64 consecutive patients (mean age, 32 years; age range, 16-74 years) and was guided with CT fluoroscopy (n = 28), conventional CT (n = 14), or conventional fluoroscopy (n = 22). Room times (arthrography, room change, CT, and total examination times) and radiologist times (time the radiologist spent in the fluoroscopy or CT room) were measured. One-way analysis of variance and Bonferroni-Dunn posthoc tests were performed for comparison of mean times. Mean effective radiation dose was calculated for each method with examination data, phantom measurements, and standard software. RESULTS: Mean total examination time was 28.0 minutes for CT fluoroscopy, 28.6 minutes for conventional CT, and 29.4 minutes for conventional fluoroscopy; mean radiologist time was 9.9 minutes, 10.5 minutes, and 9.0 minutes, respectively. These differences were not statistically significant. Mean effective radiation dose was 0.0015 mSv for conventional fluoroscopy (mean, nine sections), 0.22 mSv for CT fluoroscopy (120 kV; 50 mA; mean, 15 sections), and 0.96 mSv for conventional CT (140 kV; 240 mA; mean, six sections). Effective radiation dose can be reduced to 0.18 mSv for conventional CT by changing imaging parameters to 120 kV and 100 mA. Mean effective radiation dose of the diagnostic CT arthrographic examination (140 kV; 240 mA; mean, 25 sections) was 2.4 mSv. CONCLUSION: CT fluoroscopy and conventional CT are valuable alternative modalities for glenohumeral CT arthrography, as examination and radiologist times are not significantly different. CT guidance requires a greater radiation dose than does conventional fluoroscopy, but with adequate parameters CT guidance constitutes approximately 8% of the radiation dose.

The genetical theory of social behaviour.

We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.

Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

1st radiometric dating of a paleontologically dated Bathonian level from Georgia (USSR) - Use of the cathodoluminescence for selection of suitable plagioclases

Jurassic volcanic formations interlayered with (ammonite-bearing) sediments are common in the Caucasus area; this situation is of interest for the numerical calibration of the poorly documented Jurassic portion of the time scale. However, following petrographic study on thin sections no whole-rocks can be considered reliable geochronometers due to subsequent alteration; from about 20 samples, two were selected for plagioclase dating; one (V134) is probably early Kimmeridgian in age; the other (V136) is probably located in the Lower Bathonian stage according to diagnostic ammonites. Cathodoluminescence (CTL) study has shown that sample V136 was similar to usual volcanic feldspars (blue to green colour); however, the lack of CTL of the V134 plagioclase is a character common to diagenetic feldspars; consequently, in spite of a good optical preservation, this geo-chronometer cannot give an age representative of the time of emplacement of the lava flow. We have combined CTL observation with microprobe analysis in order to document the poorly known CTL behaviour of volcanic feldspars; cations Ti4+ and Fe2+ play a major role in the CTL colour of plagioclases and are able to document the growing history of these feldspars ; phenocrysts are initially rich in Fe2+ (core of the crystals, green in colour), then richer in Ti toward the exterior; microcrysts are even richer in Ti (blue to bright blue). We have also observed that natural CTL colour was modified resulting from acid ``cleaning'' of the separated feldspars : the initial blue or green colour tends to change to yellow or violet, respectively, after acid treatment probably due to oxydation of Fe2+ toward Fe3+. X-ray and microprobe analyses both indicated that plagioclases from sample V134 was near the sodic end member (albite) suggesting a diagenetic origin in this andesitic basalt; In contrast, sample V136 contains a calcic plagioclase of common composition for a doleritic basalt. The K-Ar conventional technique was applied as a preliminary tool for radiometric analysis. The Kimmeridgian Na-plagioclase sample gave a ``rejuvenated'' (85 Ma) apparent age which confirms a late genesis for the separated plagioclase phase; this interpretation is based on CTL observation, X-ray analysis, and microprobe analysis ; these techniques are able to distinguish samples which have been submitted to diagenetic alteration from those which have not. An age consistent with the stratigraphic location has been obtained from sample V136. This age of 161 +/- 3 (2-sigma) Ma, is the first one available from a sample palaeontologically located with reasonable precision within the mid Jurassic time.

Changes in running mechanics and spring-mass behaviour induced by a 5-hour hilly running bout.

Abstract The aim of this study was to investigate changes in running mechanics and spring-mass behaviour with fatigue induced by 5-hour hilly running (5HHR). Running mechanics were measured pre- and post-5HHR at 10, 12 and 14 km · h(-1) on an instrumented treadmill in eight ultramarathon runners, and sampled at 1000 Hz for 10 consecutive steps. Contact (t(c) ) and aerial (t(a) ) times were determined from ground reaction force (GRF) signals and used to compute step frequency (f). Maximal GRF, loading rate, downward displacement of the centre of mass (Δz), and leg length change (ΔL) during the support phase were determined and used to compute both vertical (K(vert) ) and leg (K(leg) ) stiffness. A significant decrease in t(c) was observed at 12 and 14 km · h(-1) resulting in an increase of f at all speeds. Duty factor and F(max) significantly decreased at 10 km · h(-1). A significant increase in K(vert) and K(leg) was observed at all running speeds with significant decreases in Δz and ΔL. Despite the shorter duration, the changes in running mechanics appeared to be in the same direction (increased f and K(vert) , decrease in Δz and F(max) ) but of lower amplitude compared with those obtained after an ultra-trail or an ultramarathon.

Changes in leg spring behaviour, plantar loading and foot mobility magnitude induced by an exhaustive treadmill run in adolescent middle-distance runners.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine adjustments in spring-mass model characteristics, plantar loading and foot mobility induced by an exhaustive run. DESIGN: Within-participants repeated measures. METHODS: Eleven highly-trained adolescent middle-distance runners ran to exhaustion on a treadmill at a constant velocity corresponding to 95% of velocity associated with VO₂max (17.8 ± 1.4 kmh(-1), time to exhaustion=8.8 ± 3.4 min). Contact time obtained from plantar pressure sensors was used to estimate spring-mass model characteristics, which were recorded (during 30 s) 1 min after the start and prior to exhaustion using pressure insoles. Foot mobility magnitude (a composite measure of vertical and medial-lateral mobility of the midfoot) was measured before and after the run. RESULTS: Mean contact area (foot to ground), contact time, peak vertical ground reaction force, centre of mass vertical displacement and leg compression increased significantly with fatigue, while flight time, leg stiffness and mean pressure decreased. Leg stiffness decreased because leg compression increased to a larger extent than peak vertical ground reaction forces. Step length, step frequency and foot mobility magnitude did not change at exhaustion. CONCLUSIONS: The stride pattern of adolescents when running on a treadmill at high constant velocity deteriorates near exhaustion, as evidenced by impaired leg-spring behaviour (leg stiffness) and altered plantar loading.

The Half-Life of Election Pledges : What makes MPs change their positions?

"Thou shalt not bear false witness," as we all know. Yet changing one's mind in case of respectable reasons seems to be allowed. Which is good news for politicians, but reduces the effectiveness of prospective voting, i.e. the focus on "the commitments of candidates to take actions that citizens desire to be taken" (Powell 2000: 9). This may be bad news for voters. By comparing pre-election commitments of Swiss members of parliament (MPs) with actual voting behaviour in the lower house of parliament, the following article explores the question how much confidence voters can have in prospective voting and what factors explain (non-)fulfilment of election pledges.

Choosing among techniques for quantifying single-case intervention effectiveness

If single case experimental designs are to be used to establish guidelines for evidence-based interventions in clinical and educational settings, numerical values that reflect treatment effect sizes are required. The present study compares four recently developed procedures for quantifying the magnitude of intervention effect using data with known characteristics. Monte Carlo methods were used to generate AB designs data with potential confounding variables (serial dependence, linear and curvilinear trend, and heteroscedasticity between phases) and two types of treatment effect (level and slope change). The results suggest that data features are important for choosing the appropriate procedure and, thus, inspecting the graphed data visually is a necessary initial stage. In the presence of serial dependence or a change in data variability, the Nonoverlap of All Pairs (NAP) and the Slope and Level Change (SLC) were the only techniques of the four examined that performed adequately. Introducing a data correction step in NAP renders it unaffected by linear trend, as is also the case for the Percentage of Nonoverlapping Corrected Data and SLC. The performance of these techniques indicates that professionals" judgments concerning treatment effectiveness can be readily complemented by both visual and statistical analyses. A flowchart to guide selection of techniques according to the data characteristics identified by visual inspection is provided.

Flight energetics in relation to sexual differences in the mating behaviour of a mayfly, Siphlonurus aestivalis

Mayflies (Ephemeroptera) are known to have short adult life-spans. Adults are unable to feed, and they utilize reserves stored during their aquatic larval stage. Energy reserves (fat, glycogen, and free sugars) of mature larvae, subimagoes and imagoes of both sexes of Siphlonurus aestivalis Eaton were compared. All the stages of both sexes had low glycogen and free sugar contents, and the only significant change occurred during the transformation of the mature larva to subimago when almost all the reserves of free sugars were used up. Glycogen and free sugars may serve as energy sources permitting individuals to swim and fly out of the water during emergence. Fat made up most of the energy reserves of mature larvae and was the main source of energy used during the final development of both sexes. Young adult males had high fat reserves which they used as a source of energy for their swarming flights. In contrast, females did not seem to use a significant amount of fat for flight. This difference is probably related to the different mating strategies of the sexes in this species. Males perform long flights waiting for females, whereas females perform only brief flights to mate and reproduce.

Similarity in food cleaning techniques within matrilines in wild vervet monkeys.

Social learning and the formation of traditions rely on the ability and willingness to copy one another. A central question is under which conditions individuals adapt behaviour to social influences. Here, we demonstrate that similarities in food processing techniques emerge on the level of matrilines (mother-offspring) but not on the group level in an experiment on six groups of wild vervet monkeys that involved grapes covered with sand. Monkeys regularly ate unclean grapes but also used four cleaning techniques more similarly within matrilines: rubbing in hands, rubbing on substrate, open with mouth, and open with hands. Individual cleaning techniques evolved over time as they converged within matrilines, stabilised at the end and remained stable in a follow-up session more than one year later. The similarity within matrilines persisted when we analyzed only foraging events of individuals in the absence of other matriline members and matriline members used more similar methods than adult full sisters. Thus, momentary conversion or purely genetic causation are unlikely explanations, favouring social learning as mechanism for within matriline similarities. The restriction of traditions to matriline membership rather than to the group level may restrict the development of culture in monkeys relative to apes or humans.

What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Surgical treatment of perforated peptic ulcer. Is there a need for a change?

The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk and the results of surgical treatment for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU), to compare them through time, and to determine the current optimal surgical treatment. In a retrospective study, the charts of all the patients admitted for PPU between January 1976 and October 1991 were reviewed. The features believed to be of importance in the outcome were assessed for statistical analysis. A comparison was made between three periods of the study (1976-1980, 1981-1985, 1986-1991). 247 patients were included. Mortality was 11.7% (29/247). Factors associated with an increased mortality were: shock on admission (p = 0.01), age (p < 0.001), severe associated medical illnesses (p < 0.001) and the form of treatment (p < 0.01). After multivariate analysis, only shock on admission and associated disease remained significant. Chronic peptic ulcer disease occurred in 76% of the patients. Comparing the periods showed that age, associated illnesses, percentage of acute or subacute ulcers, mortality, as well as the number of patients, are increasing. The main determinant of surgical treatment for PPU is the patient and his/her general state. Because of the high frequency of chronic peptic ulcer disease, we believe that the gold standard in the treatment for PPU remains definitive surgery. However, in the presence of more than one risk factor, suture and patch are probably safer.

Family interactions in IVF families: change over the transition to parenthood

Objective: This article presents a study of the change over time in the family interactions of couples who conceived through in-vitro fertilisation (IVF). Background: Observational methods are rarely used to study family interactions in families who used assisted reproductive techniques, but these methods are crucial for taking account of the communication that occurs in interactions with infants. Methods: Thirty-one couples expecting their first child were seen during the fifth month of pregnancy and when the child was nine months old. Family interactions were recorded in pre- and postnatal versions of the Lausanne Trilogue Play situation. Measures of marital satisfaction and parent-to-foetus/baby attachment or 'bonding' were also used to assess family relational dynamics. Results: Results showed that family alliance, marital satisfaction and parental attachment scores in the IVF sample were all similar to or higher than those in the reference sample during pregnancy. However, at nine months postnatally, the family alliance scores were lower. While marital satisfaction decreased over the period and parent-baby attachment increased, the family alliance scores were unstable, as no association was observed between the pre- and postnatal scores. In addition, neither prenatal marital satisfaction nor parent-foetus attachment predicted the postnatal family alliance. Conclusion: The change in the family alliance over the transition to parenthood appears to be specific to our IVF sample. Given that postnatal family functioning could not be predicted by prenatal family functioning, our observational data underline the importance of offering postnatal support to these families.

Body image perception and weight-related behaviour among adolescents of the Seychelles

Background: We examined one's own body image perception and its association with reported weight-related behavior among adolescents of a rapidly developing country in the African region. Methods: We conducted a school-based survey of 1432 students aged 11-17 years in the Seychelles. Weight and height were measured, and thinness, normal weight and overweight were assessed along standard criteria. A self-administered and anonymous questionnaire was administered. Perception of body image was assessed using both a closed-ended question (CEQ) and the Stunkard's pictorial silhouettes (SPS). Finally, a question assessed voluntary attempts to change weight. Results: Overall, 14.1% of the students were thin, 63.9% were normal-weight, and 22.0% were overweight or obese. There was fair agreement between actual weight status and self-perceived body image based on either CEQ or SPS. However, a substantial proportion of the overweight students did not consider themselves as overweight (SPS: 24%, CEQ: 34%) and, inversely, a substantial proportion of the normal-weight students considered themselves as too thin (SPS: 29%, CEQ: 15%). Among the overweight students, an adequate attempt to lose weight was reported more often by boys and girls who perceived themselves as overweight vs. not overweight (72-88% vs. 40-71%, p <0.05 for most comparisons). Among the normal-weight students, an inadequate attempt to gain weight was reported more often by boys and girls who perceived themselves as thin vs. not thin (27-68% vs. 11-19%, p <0.05). Girls had leaner own body ideals than boys. Conclusions: We found that substantial proportions of overweight students did not perceive themselves as overweight and/or did not want to lose weight and, inversely, that many normalweight students perceived themselves as too thin and/or wanted to gain weight: this points to forces that can drive the upwards overweight trends. Appropriate perception of one's weight was associated with adequate weight-control behavior, although not strongly, emphasizing that appropriate weight perception is only one of several factors driving adequate weight-related behavior. These findings emphasize the need to address appropriate perception of one's own weight and adequate weight-related behavior in adolescents for both individual and community weight-related interventions.