920 resultados para Bayesian statistical decision theory
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The (2 + 1)-d U(1) quantum link model is a gauge theory, amenable to quantum simulation, with a spontaneously broken SO(2) symmetry emerging at a quantum phase transition. Its low-energy physics is described by a (2 + 1)-d RP(1) effective field theory, perturbed by an SO(2) breaking operator, which prevents the interpretation of the emergent pseudo-Goldstone boson as a dual photon. At the quantum phase transition, the model mimics some features of deconfined quantum criticality, but remains linearly confining. Deconfinement only sets in at high temperature.
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The reasons for the development and collapse of Maya civilization remain controversial and historical events carved on stone monuments throughout this region provide a remarkable source of data about the rise and fall of these complex polities. Use of these records depends on correlating the Maya and European calendars so that they can be compared with climate and environmental datasets. Correlation constants can vary up to 1000 years and remain controversial. We report a series of high-resolution AMS C-14 dates on a wooden lintel collected from the Classic Period city of Tikal bearing Maya calendar dates. The radiocarbon dates were calibrated using a Bayesian statistical model and indicate that the dates were carved on the lintel between AD 658-696. This strongly supports the Goodman-Martinez-Thompson (GMT) correlation and the hypothesis that climate change played an important role in the development and demise of this complex civilization.
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A first result of the search for ν ( )μ( ) → ν ( )e( ) oscillations in the OPERA experiment, located at the Gran Sasso Underground Laboratory, is presented. The experiment looked for the appearance of ν ( )e( ) in the CNGS neutrino beam using the data collected in 2008 and 2009. Data are compatible with the non-oscillation hypothesis in the three-flavour mixing model. A further analysis of the same data constrains the non-standard oscillation parameters θ (new) and suggested by the LSND and MiniBooNE experiments. For large values (>0.1 eV(2)), the OPERA 90% C.L. upper limit on sin(2)(2θ (new)) based on a Bayesian statistical method reaches the value 7.2 × 10(−3).
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La présente contribution porte sur le passage dans le degré tertiaire en tenant compte de l’intrication des inégalités liées au sexe et au contexte migratoire. L’étude, qui repose sur des concepts de la théorie décisionnelle, s’articule principalement sur une comparaison entre la Suisse (TREE), l’Allemagne (élèves pouvant prétendre aux études supérieures 2002 HIS) et la France (Panel d'élèves du second degré 1995). Les résultats révèlent qu’en Suisse et en Allemagne, indépendamment de l’origine sociale, les jeunes hommes appartenant à certains groupes de migrants socialement défavorisés (2e génération) affichent un taux de passage dans le supérieur plus élevé que leurs camarades nationaux. Ils mettent par ailleurs en évidence que, ni en Suisse, ni en Allemagne, ni en France, les migrantes de deuxième génération issues de pays fortement marqués par le modèle patriarcal sont désavantagées.
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A first result of the search for nu(mu)->nu(e) oscillations in the OPERA experiment, located at the Gran Sasso Underground Laboratory, is presented. The experiment looked for the appearance of nu(e) in the CNGS neutrino beam using the data collected in 2008 and 2009. Data are compatible with the non-oscillation hypothesis in the three-flavour mixing model. A further analysis of the same data constrains the non-standard oscillation parameters theta(new) and Delta m(new)(2) suggested by the LSND and MiniBooNE experiments. For large Delta m(new)(2) values (>0.1 eV(2)), the OPERA 90% C.L. upper limit on sin(2)(2 theta(new)) based on a Bayesian statistical method reaches the value 7.2 x 10(-3).
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In this paper, a model (called the elliptic model) is proposed to estimate the number of social ties between two locations using population data in a similar manner to how transportation research deals with trips. To overcome the asymmetry of transportation models, the new model considers that the number of relationships between two locations is inversely proportional to the population in the ellipse whose foci are in these two locations. The elliptic model is evaluated by considering the anonymous communications patterns of 25 million users from three different countries, where a location has been assigned to each user based on their most used phone tower or billing zip code. With this information, spatial social networks are built at three levels of resolution: tower, city and region for each of the three countries. The elliptic model achieves a similar performance when predicting communication fluxes as transportation models do when predicting trips. This shows that human relationships are influenced at least as much by geography as is human mobility.
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Cation-π interactions are important forces in molecular recognition by biological receptors, enzyme catalysis, and crystal engineering. We have harnessed these interactions in designing molecular systems with circular arrangement of benzene units that are capable of acting as ionophores and models for biological receptors. [n]Collarenes are promising candidates with high selectivity for a specific cation, depending on n, because of their structural rigidity and well-defined cavity size. The interaction energies of [n]collarenes with cations have been evaluated by using ab initio calculations. The selectivity of these [n]collarenes in aqueous solution was revealed by using statistical perturbation theory in conjunction with Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations. It has been observed that in [n]collarenes the ratio of the interaction energies of a cation with it and the cation with the basic building unit (benzene) can be correlated to its ion selectivity. We find that collarenes are excellent and efficient ionophores that bind cations through cation-π interactions. [6]Collarene is found to be a selective host for Li+ and Mg2+, [8]collarene for K+ and Sr2+, and [10]collarene for Cs+ and Ba2+. This finding indicates that [10]collarene and [8]collarene could be used for effective separation of highly radioactive isotopes, 137Cs and 90Sr, which are major constituents of nuclear wastes. More interestingly, collarenes of larger cavity size can be useful in capturing organic cations. [12]Collarene exhibits a pronounced affinity for tetramethylammonium cation and acetylcholine, which implies that it could serve as a model for acetylcholinestrase. Thus, collarenes can prove to be novel and effective ionophores/model-receptors capable of heralding a new direction in molecular recognition and host-guest chemistry.
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A literatura acadêmica sobre o comportamento do investidor financeiro é bastante escassa. A pesquisa sobre o processo de decisão, em geral, aborda tradeoffs na aquisição de produtos e pouco se discute o processo de decisão de investimento. Esta tese pretende contribuir para a redução deste gap ao discutir fatores determinantes para a tomada de decisão do investidor pessoal em produtos financeiros. A decisão de investimento é complexa, envolve, entre outros, o tradeoff entre renunciar o consumo presente pela possibilidade de maior bem estar no futuro. Adicionalmente, em muitas situações, existe possibilidade real de perda dos recursos financeiros investidos. Para investigar os percursos desta decisão foram realizadas entrevistas em profundidade com executivos ligados ao setor de fundos de investimento e ao de distribuição de produtos de investimento dos maiores bancos brasileiros atuantes no segmento de varejo. Os conhecimentos recolhidos e a revisão de literatura efetuada subsidiaram a elaboração do questionário de pesquisa aplicado em plataforma web junto a potenciais investidores. Os atributos rentabilidade, possibilidade de perda (proxy de risco), liquidez, taxa de administração e recomendação do gerente foram identificados como os mais relevantes para a decisão do investidor. Para construção dos estímulos e decomposição da utilidade da decisão foi utilizada a técnica conjoint based choice (CBC) que simula uma decisão real. Os resultados apontaram ser a recomendação do gerente o atributo mais importante para a formação da preferência por uma alternativa de investimento, resultado que, por si só, indica que fatores não racionais exercem influência na decisão. Estudou-se, então, o impacto da aversão ao risco e do estilo cognitivo do investidor. Os resultados denotam que os mais avessos e os mais intuitivos são mais suscetíveis à recomendação do gerente, mas que seus efeitos são independentes entre si. As evidências sugerem que os mais intuitivos utilizam o gerente para alcançar conforto cognitivo na decisão e que os mais avessos para mitigar a sensação de risco associada ao produto. Uma análise de cluster indicou ser possível segmentar a amostra em dois grupos, um mais propenso à recomendação do gerente e outro aos atributos do produto. A recomendação do gerente mostrou ser o atributo mais forte na distinção dos grupos. Os resultados indicam que uma segmentação de mercado baseada na propensão à recomendação do gerente pode ser efetiva para direcionar a construção de uma estratégia de relacionamento que busque incrementar os resultados de longo prazo.
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"C00-2118-0048."
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Mode of access: Internet.
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Includes bibliography.
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Bibliographie: p. 495-499.
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With marine biodiversity conservation the primary goal for reserve planning initiatives, a site's conservation potential is typically evaluated on the basis of the biological and physical features it contains. By comparison, socio-economic information is seldom a formal consideration of the reserve system design problem and generally limited to an assessment of threats, vulnerability or compatibility with surrounding uses. This is perhaps surprising given broad recognition that the success of reserve establishment is highly dependent on widespread stakeholder and community support. Using information on the spatial distribution and intensity of commercial rock lobster catch in South Australia, we demonstrate the capacity of mathematical reserve selection procedures to integrate socio-economic and biophysical information for marine reserve system design. Analyses of trade-offs highlight the opportunities to design representative, efficient and practical marine reserve systems that minimise potential loss to commercial users. We found that the objective of minimising the areal extent of the reserve system was barely compromised by incorporating economic design constraints. With a small increase in area (< 3%) and boundary length (< 10%), the economic impact of marine reserves on the commercial rock lobster fishery was reduced by more than a third. We considered also how a reserve planner might prioritise conservation areas using information on a planning units selection frequency. We found that selection frequencies alone were not a reliable guide for the selection of marine reserve systems, but could be used with approaches such as summed irreplaceability to direct conservation effort for efficient marine reserve design.