943 resultados para Bayesian p-values


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QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To assess whether the prevalence of HIV positive tests in clients at five anonymous testing sites in Switzerland had increased since the end of the 1990s, and ascertain whether there had been any concurrent change in the proportions of associated risk factors. METHODS: Baseline characteristics were analysed, by groups of years, over the eleven consecutive years of data collected from the testing sites. Numbers of HIV positive tests were presented as prevalence/1000 tests performed within each category. Multivariable analyses, stratified by African nationality and risk group of heterosexuals or men who have sex with men (MSM), were done controlling simultaneously for a series of variables. Odds ratios (ORs) were reported together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). P values were calculated from likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: There was an increase in the prevalence of positive tests in African heterosexuals between 1996-1999 and 2004-2006, rising from 54.2 to 86.4/1000 and from 5.6 to 25.2/1000 in females and males respectively. The proportion of MSM who knew that one or more of their sexual partners was infected with HIV increased from 2% to 17% and the proportion who reported having more than five sexual partners in the preceding two years increased from 44% to 51%. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data from anonymous testing sites continue to provide useful information on the changing epidemiology of HIV and thus inform public health strategies against HIV.

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OBJECTIVE: To examine whether excluding patients from the analysis of randomised trials are associated with biased estimates of treatment effects and higher heterogeneity between trials. DESIGN: Meta-epidemiological study based on a collection of meta-analyses of randomised trials. DATA SOURCES: 14 meta-analyses including 167 trials that compared therapeutic interventions with placebo or non-intervention control in patients with osteoarthritis of the hip or knee and used patient reported pain as an outcome. METHODS: Effect sizes were calculated from differences in means of pain intensity between groups at the end of follow-up, divided by the pooled standard deviation. Trials were combined by using random effects meta-analysis. Estimates of treatment effects were compared between trials with and trials without exclusions from the analysis, and the impact of restricting meta-analyses to trials without exclusions was assessed. RESULTS: 39 trials (23%) had included all patients in the analysis. In 128 trials (77%) some patients were excluded from the analysis. Effect sizes from trials with exclusions tended to be more beneficial than those from trials without exclusions (difference -0.13, 95% confidence interval -0.29 to 0.04). However, estimates of bias between individual meta-analyses varied considerably (tau(2)=0.07). Tests of interaction between exclusions from the analysis and estimates of treatment effects were positive in five meta-analyses. Stratified analyses indicated that differences in effect sizes between trials with and trials without exclusions were more pronounced in meta-analyses with high between trial heterogeneity, in meta-analyses with large estimated treatment benefits, and in meta-analyses of complementary medicine. Restriction of meta-analyses to trials without exclusions resulted in smaller estimated treatment benefits, larger P values, and considerable decreases in between trial heterogeneity. CONCLUSION: Excluding patients from the analysis in randomised trials often results in biased estimates of treatment effects, but the extent and direction of bias is unpredictable. Results from intention to treat analyses should always be described in reports of randomised trials. In systematic reviews, the influence of exclusions from the analysis on estimated treatment effects should routinely be assessed.

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The aim of this study was to compare standard plaster models with their digital counterparts for the applicability of the Index of Complexity, Outcome, and Need (ICON). Generated study models of 30 randomly selected patients: 30 pre- (T(0)) and 30 post- (T(1)) treatment. Two examiners, calibrated in the ICON, scored the digital and plaster models. The overall ICON scores were evaluated for reliability and reproducibility using kappa statistics and reliability coefficients. The values for reliability of the total and weighted ICON scores were generally high for the T(0) sample (range 0.83-0.95) but less high for the T(1) sample (range 0.55-0.85). Differences in total ICON score between plaster and digital models resulted in mostly statistically insignificant values (P values ranging from 0.07 to 0.19), except for observer 1 in the T(1) sample. No statistically different values were found for the total ICON score on either plaster or digital models. ICON scores performed on computer-based models appear to be as accurate and reliable as ICON scores on plaster models.

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OBJECTIVES To identify factors associated with discrepant outcome reporting in randomized drug trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Cohort study of protocols submitted to a Swiss ethics committee 1988-1998: 227 protocols and amendments were compared with 333 matching articles published during 1990-2008. Discrepant reporting was defined as addition, omission, or reclassification of outcomes. RESULTS Overall, 870 of 2,966 unique outcomes were reported discrepantly (29.3%). Among protocol-defined primary outcomes, 6.9% were not reported (19 of 274), whereas 10.4% of reported outcomes (30 of 288) were not defined in the protocol. Corresponding percentages for secondary outcomes were 19.0% (284 of 1,495) and 14.1% (334 of 2,375). Discrepant reporting was more likely if P values were <0.05 compared with P ≥ 0.05 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.78], more likely for efficacy compared with harm outcomes (aOR: 2.99; 95% CI: 2.08, 4.30) and more likely for composite than for single outcomes (aOR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.20). Cardiology (aOR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.44, 3.79) and infectious diseases (aOR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.13) had more discrepancies compared with all specialties combined. CONCLUSION Discrepant reporting was associated with statistical significance of results, type of outcome, and specialty area. Trial protocols should be made freely available, and the publications should describe and justify any changes made to protocol-defined outcomes.

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We investigated patients with a primary diagnosis of peripheral artery disease (n = 69) and coronary heart disease (CAD; n = 520) at baseline and on changes in psychosocial risk factors (depression, anxiety, quality of life, negative and positive affect) during a cardiovascular rehabilitation program. Patients completed psychosocial questionnaires at the beginning and at discharge of a 12-week rehabilitation program. Depression and anxiety were measured with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), positive and negative affect with the Global Mood Scale, and health-related quality of life with the SF-36 Health Survey. Patients with PAD showed improvements in anxiety (p < 0.001), negative affect (p < 0.001) and bodily pain (p < 0.001). Patients with CAD reported significant improvements in all measured dimensions (all p-values < 0.001).

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OBJECTIVES In dental research multiple site observations within patients or taken at various time intervals are commonplace. These clustered observations are not independent; statistical analysis should be amended accordingly. This study aimed to assess whether adjustment for clustering effects during statistical analysis was undertaken in five specialty dental journals. METHODS Thirty recent consecutive issues of Orthodontics (OJ), Periodontology (PJ), Endodontology (EJ), Maxillofacial (MJ) and Paediatric Dentristry (PDJ) journals were hand searched. Articles requiring adjustment accounting for clustering effects were identified and statistical techniques used were scrutinized. RESULTS Of 559 studies considered to have inherent clustering effects, adjustment for this was made in the statistical analysis in 223 (39.1%). Studies published in the Periodontology specialty accounted for clustering effects in the statistical analysis more often than articles published in other journals (OJ vs. PJ: OR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.37, p<0.001; MJ vs. PJ: OR=0.02, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.07, p<0.001; PDJ vs. PJ: OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.28, p<0.001; EJ vs. PJ: OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.22, p<0.001). A positive correlation was found between increasing prevalence of clustering effects in individual specialty journals and correct statistical handling of clustering (r=0.89). CONCLUSIONS The majority of studies in 5 dental specialty journals (60.9%) examined failed to account for clustering effects in statistical analysis where indicated, raising the possibility of inappropriate decreases in p-values and the risk of inappropriate inferences.

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OBJECTIVES Optical scanners combined with computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) technology provide high accuracy in the fabrication of titanium (TIT) and zirconium dioxide (ZrO) bars. The aim of this study was to compare the precision of fit of CAD/CAM TIT bars produced with a photogrammetric and a laser scanner. METHODS Twenty rigid CAD/CAM bars were fabricated on one single edentulous master cast with 6 implants in the positions of the second premolars, canines and central incisors. A photogrammetric scanner (P) provided digitized data for TIT-P (n=5) while a laser scanner (L) was used for TIT-L (n=5). The control groups consisted of soldered gold bars (gold, n=5) and ZrO-P with similar bar design. Median vertical distance between implant and bar platforms from non-tightened implants (one-screw test) was calculated from mesial, buccal and distal scanning electron microscope measurements. RESULTS Vertical microgaps were not significantly different between TIT-P (median 16μm; 95% CI 10-27μm) and TIT-L (25μm; 13-32μm). Gold (49μm; 12-69μm) had higher values than TIT-P (p=0.001) and TIT-L (p=0.008), while ZrO-P (35μm; 17-55μm) exhibited higher values than TIT-P (p=0.023). Misfit values increased in all groups from implant position 23 (3 units) to 15 (10 units), while in gold and TIT-P values decreased from implant 11 toward the most distal implant 15. SIGNIFICANCE CAD/CAM titanium bars showed high precision of fit using photogrammetric and laser scanners. In comparison, the misfit of ZrO bars (CAM/CAM, photogrammetric scanner) and soldered gold bars was statistically higher but values were clinically acceptable.

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Coat color and pattern variations in domestic animals are frequently inherited as simple monogenic traits, but a number are known to have a complex genetic basis. While the analysis of complex trait data remains a challenge in all species, we can use the reduced haplotypic diversity in domestic animal populations to gain insight into the genomic interactions underlying complex phenotypes. White face and leg markings are examples of complex traits in horses where little is known of the underlying genetics. In this study, Franches-Montagnes (FM) horses were scored for the occurrence of white facial and leg markings using a standardized scoring system. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed for several white patterning traits in 1,077 FM horses. Seven quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting the white marking score with p-values p≤10(-4) were identified. Three loci, MC1R and the known white spotting genes, KIT and MITF, were identified as the major loci underlying the extent of white patterning in this breed. Together, the seven loci explain 54% of the genetic variance in total white marking score, while MITF and KIT alone account for 26%. Although MITF and KIT are the major loci controlling white patterning, their influence varies according to the basic coat color of the horse and the specific body location of the white patterning. Fine mapping across the MITF and KIT loci was used to characterize haplotypes present. Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes were calculated to assess their selective and evolutionary influences on the extent of white patterning. This novel approach shows that KIT and MITF act in an additive manner and that accumulating mutations at these loci progressively increase the extent of white markings.

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The improvement of meat quality and production traits has high priority in the pork industry. Many of these traits show a low to moderate heritability and are difficult and expensive to measure. Their improvement by targeted breeding programs is challenging and requires knowledge of the genetic and molecular background. For this study we genotyped 192 artificial insemination boars of a commercial line derived from the Swiss Large White breed using the PorcineSNP60 BeadChip with 62,163 evenly spaced SNPs across the pig genome. We obtained 26 estimated breeding values (EBVs) for various traits including exterior, meat quality, reproduction, and production. The subsequent genome-wide association analysis allowed us to identify four QTL with suggestive significance for three of these traits (p-values ranging from 4.99×10⁻⁶ to 2.73×10⁻⁵). Single QTL for the EBVs pH one hour post mortem (pH1) and carcass length were on pig chromosome (SSC) 14 and SSC 2, respectively. Two QTL for the EBV rear view hind legs were on SSC 10 and SSC 16.

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Most published genomewide association studies (GWAS) in sheep have investigated recessively inherited monogenic traits. The objective here was to assess the feasibility of performing GWAS for a dominant trait for which the genetic basis was already known. A total of 42 Manchega and Rasa Aragonesa sheep that segregate solid black or white coat pigmentation were genotyped using the SNP50 BeadChip. Previous analysis in Manchegas demonstrated a complete association between the pigmentation trait and alleles of the MC1R gene, setting an a priori expectation for GWAS. Multiple methods were used to identify and quantify the strength of population substructure between black and white animals, before allelic association testing was performed for 49 034 SNPs. Following correction for substructure, GWAS identified the most strongly associated SNP (s26449) was also the closest to the MC1R gene. The finding was strongly supported by the permutation tree-based random forest (RF) analysis. Importantly, GWAS identified unlinked SNP with only slightly lower p-values than for s26449. Random forest analysis indicated these were false positives, suggesting interpretation based on both approaches was beneficial. The results indicate that a combined analytical approach can be successful in studies where a modest number of animals are available and substantial population stratification exists.

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OBJECTIVE: Psychological states relate to changes in circulating immune cells, but associations with immune cells in peripheral tissues such as macrophages have hardly been investigated. Here, we aimed to implement and validate a method for measuring the microbicidal potential of ex vivo isolated human monocyte-derived macrophages (HMDMs) as an indicator of macrophage activation. METHODS: The method was implemented and validated for two blood sampling procedures (short-term cannula insertion versus long-term catheter insertion) in 79 participants (34 women, 45 men) aged between 18 and 75 years. The method principle is based on the reduction of 2-(4-iodophenyl)-3-(4-nitrophenyl)-5-(2,4-dis-ulfophenyl)-2H-tetrazolium, monosodium salt (WST-1) by superoxide anions, the first in a series of pathogen-killing reactive oxygen species produced by phorbol myristate acetate-activated HMDM. Cytochrome c reduction and current generation were measured as reference methods for validation purposes. We further evaluated whether depressive symptom severity (Beck Depression Inventory) and chronic stress (Chronic Stress Screening Scale) were associated with macrophage microbicidal potential. RESULTS: The assay induced superoxide anion responses by HMDM in all participants. Assay results depended on blood sampling procedure (cannula versus catheter insertion). Interassay variability as a measure for assay reliability was 10.92% or less. WST-1 reduction scores correlated strongly with results obtained by reference methods (cytochrome c: r = 0.57, p = .026; current generation: r values ≥ 0.47, p values <.033) and with psychological factors (depressive symptom severity: r = 0.35 [cannula insertion] versus r = -0.54 [catheter insertion]; chronic stress: r = 0.36 [cannula insertion]; p values ≤ .047). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the implemented in vitro method investigates microbicidal potential of HMDM in a manner that is valid and sensitive to psychological measures.

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OBJECTIVES Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

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Despite current enthusiasm for investigation of gene-gene interactions and gene-environment interactions, the essential issue of how to define and detect gene-environment interactions remains unresolved. In this report, we define gene-environment interactions as a stochastic dependence in the context of the effects of the genetic and environmental risk factors on the cause of phenotypic variation among individuals. We use mutual information that is widely used in communication and complex system analysis to measure gene-environment interactions. We investigate how gene-environment interactions generate the large difference in the information measure of gene-environment interactions between the general population and a diseased population, which motives us to develop mutual information-based statistics for testing gene-environment interactions. We validated the null distribution and calculated the type 1 error rates for the mutual information-based statistics to test gene-environment interactions using extensive simulation studies. We found that the new test statistics were more powerful than the traditional logistic regression under several disease models. Finally, in order to further evaluate the performance of our new method, we applied the mutual information-based statistics to three real examples. Our results showed that P-values for the mutual information-based statistics were much smaller than that obtained by other approaches including logistic regression models.

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Several studies have shown associations of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) with the development of cardiometabolic diseases. The underlying psychopathological mechanisms, including potential links to inflammatory processes, have been discussed but remain elusive. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the association of PTSD symptoms with the inflammatory biomarkers C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-18 (IL-18). The study population consisted of 3012 participants aged 32-81years drawn from the population-based KORA F4 study conducted in 2006-08 in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany). PTSD symptoms were measured by the Impact of Event Scale, the Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale and interview data and classified as no, partial or full PTSD. The associations of PTSD with CRP and IL-18 concentrations were estimated by multiple regression analyses with adjustments for age, sex and cardiometabolic risk factors. Linear regression analyses showed no significant association between PTSD and CRP or IL-18 concentration: adjusted for age and sex, the geometric mean concentrations in participants with full PTSD was for CRP 9% lower and for IL-18 1% higher than in participants with no PTSD (p values 0.53 and 0.89). However, further analyses indicated that individuals with partial PTSD had an increased chance of belonging to the highest quartile of the IL-18 concentration. No significant association was observed for any of the three subscales intrusion, avoidance or hyperarousal with CRP or IL-18 concentration. This large, population-based study could not find an association of full PTSD with CRP and IL-18 concentrations. Further research is needed to analyse these relationships.

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Objectives.This study aimed to further elucidate the biobehavioral mechanisms linking dementia caregiving with an increased cardiovascular disease risk. We hypothesized that both elevated depressive symptoms and a behavioral correlate of depression, low leisure satisfaction, are associated with systemic inflammation.Method.We studied 121 elderly Alzheimer's disease caregivers who underwent 4 annual assessments for depressive symptoms, leisure satisfaction, and circulating levels of inflammatory markers. We used mixed-regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic and health-relevant covariates to examine longitudinal relationships between constructs of interest. RESULTS: There were inverse relationships between total leisure satisfaction and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α; p = .047), interleukin-8 (IL-8; p < .001), and interferon-γ (IFG; p = .020) but not with IL-6 (p = .21) and C-reactive protein (p = .65). Lower enjoyment from leisure activities was related to higher levels of TNF-α (p = .045), IL-8 (p < .001), and IFG (p = .002), whereas lower frequency of leisure activities was related only to higher IL-8 levels (p = .023). Depressive symptoms were not associated with any inflammatory marker (all p values > .17). Depressive symptoms did not mediate the relationship between leisure satisfaction and inflammation.Discussion.Lower satisfaction with leisure activities is related to higher low-grade systemic inflammation. This knowledge may provide a promising way of improving cardiovascular health in dementia caregivers through behavioral activation treatments targeting low leisure satisfaction.