Implementation of bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring in modern patient care

The variability observed in drug exposure has a direct impact on the overall response to drug. The largest part of variability between dose and drug response resides in the pharmacokinetic phase, i.e. in the dose-concentration relationship. Among possibilities offered to clinicians, Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM; Monitoring of drug concentration measurements) is one of the useful tool to guide pharmacotherapy. TDM aims at optimizing treatments by individualizing dosage regimens based on blood drug concentration measurement. Bayesian calculations, relying on population pharmacokinetic approach, currently represent the gold standard TDM strategy. However, it requires expertise and computational assistance, thus limiting its large implementation in routine patient care. The overall objective of this thesis was to implement robust tools to provide Bayesian TDM to clinician in modern routine patient care. To that endeavour, aims were (i) to elaborate an efficient and ergonomic computer tool for Bayesian TDM: EzeCHieL (ii) to provide algorithms for drug concentration Bayesian forecasting and software validation, relying on population pharmacokinetics (iii) to address some relevant issues encountered in clinical practice with a focus on neonates and drug adherence. First, the current stage of the existing software was reviewed and allows establishing specifications for the development of EzeCHieL. Then, in close collaboration with software engineers a fully integrated software, EzeCHieL, has been elaborated. EzeCHieL provides population-based predictions and Bayesian forecasting and an easy-to-use interface. It enables to assess the expectedness of an observed concentration in a patient compared to the whole population (via percentiles), to assess the suitability of the predicted concentration relative to the targeted concentration and to provide dosing adjustment. It allows thus a priori and a posteriori Bayesian drug dosing individualization. Implementation of Bayesian methods requires drug disposition characterisation and variability quantification trough population approach. Population pharmacokinetic analyses have been performed and Bayesian estimators have been provided for candidate drugs in population of interest: anti-infectious drugs administered to neonates (gentamicin and imipenem). Developed models were implemented in EzeCHieL and also served as validation tool in comparing EzeCHieL concentration predictions against predictions from the reference software (NONMEM®). Models used need to be adequate and reliable. For instance, extrapolation is not possible from adults or children to neonates. Therefore, this work proposes models for neonates based on the developmental pharmacokinetics concept. Patients' adherence is also an important concern for drug models development and for a successful outcome of the pharmacotherapy. A last study attempts to assess impact of routine patient adherence measurement on models definition and TDM interpretation. In conclusion, our results offer solutions to assist clinicians in interpreting blood drug concentrations and to improve the appropriateness of drug dosing in routine clinical practice.

Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models.

Alpine tree-line ecotones are characterized by marked changes at small spatial scales that may result in a variety of physiognomies. A set of alternative individual-based models was tested with data from four contrasting Pinus uncinata ecotones in the central Spanish Pyrenees to reveal the minimal subset of processes required for tree-line formation. A Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods was employed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters, allowing the use of model selection procedures. The main features of real tree lines emerged only in models considering nonlinear responses in individual rates of growth or mortality with respect to the altitudinal gradient. Variation in tree-line physiognomy reflected mainly changes in the relative importance of these nonlinear responses, while other processes, such as dispersal limitation and facilitation, played a secondary role. Different nonlinear responses also determined the presence or absence of krummholz, in agreement with recent findings highlighting a different response of diffuse and abrupt or krummholz tree lines to climate change. The method presented here can be widely applied in individual-based simulation models and will turn model selection and evaluation in this type of models into a more transparent, effective, and efficient exercise.

Approximate Bayesian Computation Reveals the Crucial Role of Oceanic Islands for the Assembly of Continental Biodiversity.

The perceived low levels of genetic diversity, poor interspecific competitive and defensive ability, and loss of dispersal capacities of insular lineages have driven the view that oceanic islands are evolutionary dead ends. Focusing on the Atlantic bryophyte flora distributed across the archipelagos of the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, Western Europe, and northwestern Africa, we used an integrative approach with species distribution modeling and population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation to determine whether this view applies to organisms with inherent high dispersal capacities. Genetic diversity was found to be higher in island than in continental populations, contributing to mounting evidence that, contrary to theoretical expectations, island populations are not necessarily genetically depauperate. Patterns of genetic variation among island and continental populations consistently fitted those simulated under a scenario of de novo foundation of continental populations from insular ancestors better than those expected if islands would represent a sink or a refugium of continental biodiversity. We, suggest that the northeastern Atlantic archipelagos have played a key role as a stepping stone for transoceanic migrants. Our results challenge the traditional notion that oceanic islands are the end of the colonization road and illustrate the significant role of oceanic islands as reservoirs of novel biodiversity for the assembly of continental floras.

Fusion weld metal solidification:Continuum from weld interface to centerline

We present a brief résumé of the history of solidification research and key factors affecting the solidification of fusion welds. There is a general agreement of the basic solidification theory, albeit differing - even confusing - nomenclatures do exist, and Cases 2 and 3 (the Chalmers' basic boundary conditions for solidification, categorized by Savage as Cases) are variably emphasized. Model Frame, a tool helping to model the continuum of fusion weld solidification from start to end, is proposed. It incorporates the general solidification models, of which the pertinent ones are selected for the actual modeling. The basic models are the main solidification Cases 1…4. These discrete Cases are joined with Sub-Cases: models of Pfann, Flemings and others, bringing needed Sub-Case variables into the model. Model Frame depicts a grain growing from the weld interface to its centerline. Besides modeling, the Model Frame supports education and academic debate. The new mathematical modeling techniques will extend its use into multi-dimensional modeling, introducing new variables and increasing the modeling accuracy. We propose a model: melting/solidification-model (M/S-model) - predicting the solute profile at the start of the solidification of a fusion weld. This Case 3-based Sub-Case takes into account the melting stage, the solute back-diffusion in the solid, and the growth rate acceleration typical to fusion welds. We propose - based on works of Rutter & Chalmers, David & Vitek and our experimental results on copper - that NEGS-EGS-transition is not associated only with cellular-dendritic-transition. Solidification is studied experimentally on pure and doped copper with welding speed range from 0 to 200 cm/min, with one test at 3000 cm/min. Found were only planar and cellular structures, no dendrites - columnar or equiaxed. Cell sub structures: rows of cubic elements we call "cubelettes", "cell-bands" and "micro-cells", as well as an anomalous crack morphology "crack-eye", were detected, as well as microscopic hot crack nucleus we call "grain-lag cracks", caused by a grain slightly lagging behind its neighbors in arrival to the weld centerline. Varestraint test and R-test revealed a change of crack morphologies from centerline cracks to grainand cell boundary cracks with an increasing welding speed. High speed made the cracks invisible to bare eye and hardly detectable with light microscope, while electron microscope often revealed networks of fine micro-cracks.

MRI/TRUS fusion software-based targeted biopsy: the new standard of care?

The advent of multiparametric MRI has made it possible to change the way in which prostate biopsy is done, allowing to direct biopsies to suspicious lesions rather than randomly. The subject of this review relates to a computer-assisted strategy, the MRI/US fusion software-based targeted biopsy, and to its performance compared to the other sampling methods. Different devices with different methods to register MR images to live TRUS are currently in use to allow software-based targeted biopsy. Main clinical indications of MRI/US fusion software-based targeted biopsy are re-biopsy in men with persistent suspicious of prostate cancer after first negative standard biopsy and the follow-up of patients under active surveillance. Some studies have compared MRI/US fusion software-based targeted versus standard biopsy. In men at risk with MRI-suspicious lesion, targeted biopsy consistently detects more men with clinically significant disease as compared to standard biopsy; some studies have also shown decreased detection of insignificant disease. Only two studies directly compared MRI/US fusion software-based targeted biopsy with MRI/US fusion visual targeted biopsy, and the diagnostic ability seems to be in favor of the software approach. To date, no study comparing software-based targeted biopsy against in-bore MRI biopsy is available. The new software-based targeted approach seems to have the characteristics to be added in the standard pathway for achieving accurate risk stratification. Once reproducibility and cost-effectiveness will be verified, the actual issue will be to determine whether MRI/TRUS fusion software-based targeted biopsy represents anadd-on test or a replacement to standard TRUS biopsy.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Clinical Application of Prognostic Gene Expression Signature in Fusion Gene-Negative Rhabdomyosarcoma: A Report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PURPOSE: Pediatric rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) has two common histologic subtypes: embryonal (ERMS) and alveolar (ARMS). PAX-FOXO1 fusion gene status is a more reliable prognostic marker than alveolar histology, whereas fusion gene-negative (FN) ARMS patients are clinically similar to ERMS patients. A five-gene expression signature (MG5) previously identified two diverse risk groups within the fusion gene-negative RMS (FN-RMS) patients, but this has not been independently validated. The goal of this study was to test whether expression of the MG5 metagene, measured using a technical platform that can be applied to routine pathology material, would correlate with outcome in a new cohort of patients with FN-RMS. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Cases were taken from the Children's Oncology Group (COG) D9803 study of children with intermediate-risk RMS, and gene expression profiling for the MG5 genes was performed using the nCounter assay. The MG5 score was correlated with clinical and pathologic characteristics as well as overall and event-free survival. RESULTS: MG5 standardized score showed no significant association with any of the available clinicopathologic variables. The MG5 signature score showed a significant correlation with overall (N = 57; HR, 7.3; 95% CI, 1.9-27.0; P = 0.003) and failure-free survival (N = 57; HR, 6.1; 95% CI, 1.9-19.7; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: This represents the first, validated molecular prognostic signature for children with FN-RMS who otherwise have intermediate-risk disease. The capacity to measure the expression of a small number of genes in routine pathology material and apply a simple mathematical formula to calculate the MG5 metagene score provides a clear path toward better risk stratification in future prospective clinical trials. Clin Cancer Res; 21(20); 4733-9. ©2015 AACR.

Cell fusion reprogramming leads to a specific hepatic expression pattern during mouse bone marrow derived hepatocyte formation In Vivo

The fusion of bone marrow (BM) hematopoietic cells with hepatocytes to generate BM derived hepatocytes (BMDH) is a natural process, which is enhanced in damaged tissues. However, the reprogramming needed to generate BMDH and the identity of the resultant cells is essentially unknown. In a mouse model of chronic liver damage, here we identify a modification in the chromatin structure of the hematopoietic nucleus during BMDH formation, accompanied by the loss of the key hematopoietic transcription factor PU.1/Sfpi1 (SFFV proviral integration 1) and gain of the key hepatic transcriptional regulator HNF-1A homeobox A (HNF-1A/Hnf1a). Through genome-wide expression analysis of laser captured BMDH, a differential gene expression pattern was detected and the chromatin changes observed were confirmed at the level of chromatin regulator genes. Similarly, Tranforming Growth Factor-β1 (TGF-β1) and neurotransmitter (e.g. Prostaglandin E Receptor 4 [Ptger4]) pathway genes were over-expressed. In summary, in vivo BMDH generation is a process in which the hematopoietic cell nucleus changes its identity and acquires hepatic features. These BMDHs have their own cell identity characterized by an expression pattern different from hematopoietic cells or hepatocytes. The role of these BMDHs in the liver requires further investigation.

A practical guide for the formulation of propositions in the bayesian approach to DNA evidence interpretation in an adversarial environment

The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.

Sacral fusion as an aid in age estimation

The degree of fusion at the anterior aspect of the sacral vertebrae has been scored in 242 male and female skeletons from the Lisbon documented collection, ranging in age from 16 to 59 years old. Statistical tests indicate a sex difference towards earlier fusion in young females compared with young males, as well as a clear association between degree of fusion and age. Similar results have been found in documented skeletal samples from Coimbra and Sassari, and the recommendations stated by these authors regarding age estimation have been positively tested in the Lisbon collection. Although more research from geographically diverse samples is required, a general picture of the pattern of sacral fusion and its associations with age and sex is emerging. We also provide a practical example of the usefulness of the sacrum in age estimation in a forensic setting, a mass grave from the Spanish Civil War. It is concluded that the scoring of the degree of fusion of the sacral vertebrae, specially of S1-2, can be a simple tool for assigning skeletons to broad age groups, and it should be implemented as another resource for age estimation in the study of human skeletal remains.

The fusion protein SS18-SSX1 employs core Wnt pathway transcription factors to induce a partial Wnt signature in synovial sarcoma.

Expression of the SS18/SYT-SSX fusion protein is believed to underlie the pathogenesis of synovial sarcoma (SS). Recent evidence suggests that deregulation of the Wnt pathway may play an important role in SS but the mechanisms whereby SS18-SSX might affect Wnt signaling remain to be elucidated. Here, we show that SS18/SSX tightly regulates the elevated expression of the key Wnt target AXIN2 in primary SS. SS18-SSX is shown to interact with TCF/LEF, TLE and HDAC but not β-catenin in vivo and to induce Wnt target gene expression by forming a complex containing promoter-bound TCF/LEF and HDAC but lacking β-catenin. Our observations provide a tumor-specific mechanistic basis for Wnt target gene induction in SS that can occur in the absence of Wnt ligand stimulation.

A Sparse Bayesian Approach for Joint Feature Selection and Classifier Learning

Peer-reviewed