Comparison of selective genotyping strategies for prediction of breeding values in a population undergoing selection

Genomewide marker information can improve the reliability of breeding value predictions for young selection candidates in genomic selection. However, the cost of genotyping limits its use to elite animals, and how such selective genotyping affects predictive ability of genomic selection models is an open question. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the quality of breeding value predictions for selection candidates based on different selective genotyping strategies in a population undergoing selection. The genome consisted of 10 chromosomes of 100 cM each. After 5,000 generations of random mating with a population size of 100 (50 males and 50 females), generation G(0) (reference population) was produced via a full factorial mating between the 50 males and 50 females from generation 5,000. Different levels of selection intensities (animals with the largest yield deviation value) in G(0) or random sampling (no selection) were used to produce offspring of G(0) generation (G(1)). Five genotyping strategies were used to choose 500 animals in G(0) to be genotyped: 1) Random: randomly selected animals, 2) Top: animals with largest yield deviation values, 3) Bottom: animals with lowest yield deviations values, 4) Extreme: animals with the 250 largest and the 250 lowest yield deviations values, and 5) Less Related: less genetically related animals. The number of individuals in G(0) and G(1) was fixed at 2,500 each, and different levels of heritability were considered (0.10, 0.25, and 0.50). Additionally, all 5 selective genotyping strategies (Random, Top, Bottom, Extreme, and Less Related) were applied to an indicator trait in generation G(0), and the results were evaluated for the target trait in generation G(1), with the genetic correlation between the 2 traits set to 0.50. The 5 genotyping strategies applied to individuals in G(0) (reference population) were compared in terms of their ability to predict the genetic values of the animals in G(1) (selection candidates). Lower correlations between genomic-based estimates of breeding values (GEBV) and true breeding values (TBV) were obtained when using the Bottom strategy. For Random, Extreme, and Less Related strategies, the correlation between GEBV and TBV became slightly larger as selection intensity decreased and was largest when no selection occurred. These 3 strategies were better than the Top approach. In addition, the Extreme, Random, and Less Related strategies had smaller predictive mean squared errors (PMSE) followed by the Top and Bottom methods. Overall, the Extreme genotyping strategy led to the best predictive ability of breeding values, indicating that animals with extreme yield deviations values in a reference population are the most informative when training genomic selection models.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Population genetic relationships between Casearia sylvestris (Salicaceae) varieties occurring sympatrically and allopatrically in different ecosystems in south-east Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

How to not inflate population estimates? Spatial density distribution of white-lipped peccaries in a continuous Atlantic forest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian longitudinal data analysis with mixed models and thick-tailed distributions using MCMC

Linear mixed effects models are frequently used to analyse longitudinal data, due to their flexibility in modelling the covariance structure between and within observations. Further, it is easy to deal with unbalanced data, either with respect to the number of observations per subject or per time period, and with varying time intervals between observations. In most applications of mixed models to biological sciences, a normal distribution is assumed both for the random effects and for the residuals. This, however, makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed models employing thick-tailed distributions for robust inferences in longitudinal data analysis are described. Specific distributions discussed include the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted, and the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are used to carry out the posterior analyses. An example with data on orthodontic distance growth in children is discussed to illustrate the methodology. Analyses based on either the Student-t distribution or on the usual Gaussian assumption are contrasted. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process for modelling distributions of the random effects and of residuals in linear mixed models, and the MCMC implementation allows the computations to be performed in a flexible manner.

Population genetic structure and dispersal in white-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecari) from the Brazilian Pantanal

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Bayesian approach to estimate the accuracy of in-house ELISA assay to measure rabies antibodies from compulsory vaccinated dogs and cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Reinforcing and expanding the predictions of the disturbance vicariance hypothesis in Amazonian harlequin frogs: A molecular phylogenetic and climate envelope modelling approach

The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).

Solving the Levins' paradox in the logistic model to the population growth

We introduce a new method to improve Markov maps by means of a Bayesian approach. The method starts from an initial map model, wherefrom a likelihood function is defined which is regulated by a temperature-like parameter. Then, the new constraints are added by the use of Bayes rule in the prior distribution. We applied the method to the logistic map of population growth of a single species. We show that the population size is limited for all ranges of parameters, allowing thus to overcome difficulties in interpretation of the concept of carrying capacity known as the Levins paradox. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Modelling fungus dispersal scenarios using cellular automata

This study focused on representing spatio-temporal patterns of fungal dispersal using cellular automata. Square lattices were used, with each site representing a host for a hypothetical fungus population. Four possible host states were allowed: resistant, permissive, latent or infectious. In this model, the probability of infection for each of the healthy states (permissive or resistant) in a time step was determined as a function of the host's susceptibility, seasonality, and the number of infectious sites and the distance between them. It was also assumed that infected sites become infectious after a pre-specified latency period, and that recovery is not possible. Several scenarios were simulated to understand the contribution of the model's parameters and the spatial structure on the dynamic behaviour of the modelling system. The model showed good capability for representing the spatio-temporal pattern of fungus dispersal over planar surfaces. With a specific problem in mind, the model can be easily modified and used to describe field behaviour, which can contribute to the conservation and development of management strategies for both natural and agricultural systems. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

The Phylogeographic History of the New World Screwworm Fly, Inferred by Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis

Insect pest phylogeography might be shaped both by biogeographic events and by human influence. Here, we conducted an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis to investigate the phylogeography of the New World screwworm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax, with the aim of understanding its population history and its order and time of divergence. Our ABC analysis supports that populations spread from North to South in the Americas, in at least two different moments. The first split occurred between the North/Central American and South American populations in the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (15,300-19,000 YBP). The second split occurred between the North and South Amazonian populations in the transition between the Pleistocene and the Holocene eras (9,100-11,000 YBP). The species also experienced population expansion. Phylogenetic analysis likewise suggests this north to south colonization and Maxent models suggest an increase in the number of suitable areas in South America from the past to present. We found that the phylogeographic patterns observed in C. hominivorax cannot be explained only by climatic oscillations and can be connected to host population histories. Interestingly we found these patterns are very coincident with general patterns of ancient human movements in the Americas, suggesting that humans might have played a crucial role in shaping the distribution and population structure of this insect pest. This work presents the first hypothesis test regarding the processes that shaped the current phylogeographic structure of C. hominivorax and represents an alternate perspective on investigating the problem of insect pests. © 2013 Fresia et al.

Genetic diversity and population structure of the New World screwworm fly from the Amazon region of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelling the maximum potential of nitrogen deposition and requirements of lysine for broilers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)