930 resultados para Bayesian Analuysis, Ross River Virus, Spatio-Temporal Modelling
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Despite opportunities for radiation provided by spatio-temporal isolation, the basic morphological plan of pulmonate snails has remained conservative. In consequence of the resulting dearth of morphological characters and their plasticity, there is a case for using biochemical characters such as exogenous chemicals released by the snails (e.g. amino acids) and their chemoreception niche as taxonomic aids to classify snails of medical importance. As these same chemicals are used by snails to distinguish conspecifics they could also be used as "environmental antibodies" in controlled release formulations (CRF's) designed to remove target snails in a specific, cost-effective and ecologically acceptable manner. The snails, surface-living bacteria, algae and macrophytic plants are considered as co-evolved, interactive modular systems with strong mutualistic elements. Recently, anthropogenic perturbations such as deforestation, and damming of flowing waters, have benefited these modules whereas others such as river canalization, acid deposition, accumulation of pesticide residues and eutrophication have harmed them. Research is needed to elucidate the factors which limit the growth of snails in primitive habitats, uninfluenced by man, as well as in those subject to harmful anthropogenic factors. The understanding thus gained could be applied to develop cost-effective primary health care strategies to reduce or prevent transmission of schistosomiasis and other water related diseases.
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Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Center for European Integration de la Freie Universität Berlin, Alemania, entre 2007 i 2009. El tema central del projecte consisteix en la descripció matemàtica de processos espai-temporals mitjançant la teoria dels Continuous-Time Random Walks. L'aportació més significativa del nostre treball en aquest camp consisteix en considerar per primera vegada la interacció entre diversos processos actuant de manera acoblada, ja que fins ara els models existents es limitaven a l'estudi de processos individuals o independents. Aquesta idea fa possible, per exemple, plantejar un sistema de transport en l'espai i a la vegada un procés de reacció (una reacció química, per exemple), i estudiar estadísticament com cada un pot alterar el comportament de l'altre. Això suposa un salt qualitatiu important en la descripció de processos de reacció-dispersió, ja que els nostres models permeten incorporar patrons de dispersió i comportaments temporals (cicles de vida) força realistes en comparació amb els models convencionals. Per tal de completar aquest treball teòric ha estat necessari també desenvolupar algunes eines numèriques (models de xarxa) per facilitar la implementació dels models. En la vessant pràctica, hem aplicat aquestes idees al cas de la dinàmica entre virus i el sistema immunològic que té lloc quan es produeix una infecció a l'organisme. Diferents estudis experimentals portats a terme els últims anys mostren com la resposta immunològica dels organismes superiors presenta una dinàmica temporal força complexa (per exemple, en el cas de la resposta programada). Per aquest motiu, les nostres tècniques matemàtiques són d'especial utilitat per a l'anàlisi d'aquests sistemes. Finalment, altres possibles aplicacions dels models, com ara l'estudi d'invasions biològiques, també han estat considerades.
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Malaria control has been directed towards regional actions where more detailed knowledge of local determinants of transmission is of primary importance. This is a short report on range distribution and biting indices for Anopheles darlingi and An. albitarsis during the dry and rainy season that follows river level variation in a savanna/alluvial forest malaria system area in the Northern Amazon Basin. Distribution range and adult biting indices were at their highest during the rainy season for both An. darlingi and An. albitarsis. During the rainy season the neighboring alluvial forest was extensively flooded. This coincided with highest rates in malaria transmission with case clustering near the river. As the river receded, anopheline distribution range and density decreased. This decrease in distribution and density corresponded to a malaria decrease in the near area. An exponential regression function was derived to permit estimations of An. darlingi distribution over specified distances. Anopheline spatio-temporal variations lead to uneven malaria case distribution and are of important implications for control strategies.
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Until now, mortality atlases have been static. Most of them describe the geographical distribution of mortality using count data aggregated over time and standardized mortality rates. However, this methodology has several limitations. Count data aggregated over time produce a bias in the estimation of death rates. Moreover, this practice difficult the study of temporal changes in geographical distribution of mortality. On the other hand, using standardized mortality hamper to check differences in mortality among groups. The Interactive Mortality Atlas in Andalusia (AIMA) is an alternative to conventional static atlases. It is a dynamic Geographical Information System that allows visualizing in web-site more than 12.000 maps and 338.00 graphics related to the spatio-temporal distribution of the main death causes in Andalusia by age and sex groups from 1981. The objective of this paper is to describe the methods used for AIMA development, to show technical specifications and to present their interactivity. The system is available from the link products in www.demap.es. AIMA is the first interactive GIS that have been developed in Spain with these characteristics. Spatio-temporal Hierarchical Bayesian Models were used for statistical data analysis. The results were integrated into web-site using a PHP environment and a dynamic cartography in Flash. Thematic maps in AIMA demonstrate that the geographical distribution of mortality is dynamic, with differences among year, age and sex groups. The information nowadays provided by AIMA and the future updating will contribute to reflect on the past, the present and the future of population health in Andalusia.
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Accurate perception of the temporal order of sensory events is a prerequisite in numerous functions ranging from language comprehension to motor coordination. We investigated the spatio-temporal brain dynamics of auditory temporal order judgment (aTOJ) using electrical neuroimaging analyses of auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) recorded while participants completed a near-threshold task requiring spatial discrimination of left-right and right-left sound sequences. AEPs to sound pairs modulated topographically as a function of aTOJ accuracy over the 39-77ms post-stimulus period, indicating the engagement of distinct configurations of brain networks during early auditory processing stages. Source estimations revealed that accurate and inaccurate performance were linked to bilateral posterior sylvian regions activity (PSR). However, activity within left, but not right, PSR predicted behavioral performance suggesting that left PSR activity during early encoding phases of pairs of auditory spatial stimuli appears critical for the perception of their order of occurrence. Correlation analyses of source estimations further revealed that activity between left and right PSR was significantly correlated in the inaccurate but not accurate condition, indicating that aTOJ accuracy depends on the functional decoupling between homotopic PSR areas. These results support a model of temporal order processing wherein behaviorally relevant temporal information--i.e. a temporal 'stamp'--is extracted within the early stages of cortical processes within left PSR but critically modulated by inputs from right PSR. We discuss our results with regard to current models of temporal of temporal order processing, namely gating and latency mechanisms.
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The underwater light field is an important environmental variable as it, among other things, enables aquatic primary production. Although the portion of solar radiation that is referred to as visible light penetrates water, it is restricted to a limited surface water layer because of efficient absorption and scattering processes. Based on the varying content of optical constituents in the water, the efficiency of light attenuation changes in many dimensions and over various spatial and temporal scales. This thesis discusses the underwater light dynamics of a transitional coastal archipelago in south-western Finland, in the Baltic Sea. While the area has long been known to have a highly variable underwater light field, quantified knowledge on the phenomenon has been scarce, patchy, or non-existent. This thesis focuses on the variability in the underwater light field through euphotic depths (1% irradiance remaining), which were derived from in situ measurements of vertical profiles of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Spot samples were conducted in the archipelago of south-western Finland, mainly during the ice-free growing seasons of 2010 and 2011. In addition to quantifying both the seasonal and geographical patterns of euphotic depth development, the need and usability of underwater light information are also discussed. Light availability was found to fluctuate in multiple dimensions and scales. The euphotic depth was shown to have combined spatio-temporal dynamics rather than separate changes in spatial and temporal dimensions. Such complexity in the underwater light field creates challenges in data collection, as well as in its utilisation. Although local information is needed, in highly variable conditions spot sampled information may only poorly represent its surroundings. Moreover, either temporally or spatially limited sampling may cause biases in understanding underwater light dynamics. Consequently, the application of light availability data, for example in ecological modelling, should be made with great caution.
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Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal
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L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’acquérir une connaissance détaillée sur l’évolution spatiale de la température de surface du sol (GST) au mont Jacques-Cartier et sur la réponse thermique de son îlot de pergélisol alpin aux changements climatiques passés et futurs. L’étude est basée sur un ensemble de mesures de température (GST, sous-sol) et de neige, ainsi que des modèles spatiaux de distribution potentielle de la GST et des simulations numériques du régime thermique du sol. Les résultats montrent que la distribution de la GST sur le plateau est principalement corrélée avec la répartition du couvert nival. Au-dessus de la limite de la végétation, le plateau est caractérisé par un couvert de neige peu épais et discontinu en hiver en raison de la topographie du site et l’action des forts vents. La GST est alors couplée avec les températures de l’air amenant des conditions froides en surface. Dans les îlots de krummholz et les dépressions topographiques sur les versants SE sous le vent, la neige soufflée du plateau s’accumule en un couvert très épais induisant des conditions de surface beaucoup plus chaude que sur le plateau dû à l’effet isolant de la neige. En raison de la quasi-absence de neige en hiver et de la nature du substrat, la réponse du pergélisol du sommet du mont Jacques-Cartier au signal climatique est très rapide. De 1978 à 2014, la température du sol a augmenté à toutes les profondeurs au niveau du forage suivant la même tendance que les températures de l’air. Si la tendance au réchauffement se poursuit telle que prévue par les simulations climatiques produites par le consortium Ouranos, le pergélisol pourrait disparaître d’ici à 2040-2050.
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The status of fisheries and seasonal variation in fish diversity in the Kodungallur-Azhikode Estuary (KAE) were investigated. Total annual average fish production in the estuary declined significantly to 908.6 t with average yield of 5.4 kg ha-1 day-1, when compared to earlier study; where 2747 t was reported. During the present study, 60 species of finfishes (belonging to 34 finfish families), 6 species of penaeid shrimps, 2 species of palaemonid prawns, 2 species of crabs (4 crustacean families), 6 species of bivalves and 2 species of edible oysters (3 molluscan families) were noticed. Finfishes were the major group that contributed 69.62% of total fishery in the estuary and crustaceans (23.47%), bivalves (6.84%) and oysters (0.07%) also formed good fishery. Many of the fish species in the estuary were observed as threatened (Horabagrus brachysoma, Channa striatus, Channa marulius, Clarias batrachus, Heteropneustes fossilis and Wallago attu). The major fishing gears employed in the estuary were gillnets, cast nets, stake nets, scoop nets, ring nets, traps and Chinese dip nets. Gillnets contributed 45% of the total fish catch. Gillnets also showed highest catch per unit effort (CPUE) of 6.91 kg h -1 followed by cast nets (1.85 kg h -1), Chinese dip nets (3.20 kg h -1), stake nets (3.05 kg h -1), ring nets (1.27 kg h -1), hooks and lines (1.35 kg h -1) and scoop nets (0.92 kg h -1). The study implies that temporal changes in fish landing pattern of the KAE was mainly due to environmental variability, habitat modification and fish migration; under the influence of south-west monsoon and anthropogenic activities in the KAE. Results of the study suggest that spatio-temporal variations in the fish community structure could be an indicator for anthropogenic stress and it should be considered for restoration programmes.
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Worldwide water managers are increasingly challenged to allocate sufficient and affordable water supplies to different water use sectors without further degrading river ecosystems and their valuable services to mankind. Since 1950 human population almost tripled, water abstractions increased by a factor of four, and the number of large dam constructions is about eight times higher today. From a hydrological perspective, the alteration of river flows (temporally and spatially) is one of the main consequences of global change and further impairments can be expected given growing population pressure and projected climate change. Implications have been addressed in numerous hydrological studies, but with a clear focus on human water demands. Ecological water requirements have often been neglected or addressed in a very simplistic manner, particularly from the large-scale perspective. With his PhD thesis, Christof Schneider took up the challenge to assess direct (dam operation and water abstraction) and indirect (climate change) impacts of human activities on river flow regimes and evaluate the consequences for river ecosystems by using a modeling approach. The global hydrology model WaterGAP3 (developed at CESR) was applied and further developed within this thesis to carry out several model experiments and assess anthropogenic river flow regime modifications and their effects on river ecosystems. To address the complexity of ecological water requirements the assessment is based on three main ideas: (i) the natural flow paradigm, (ii) the perception that different flows have different ecological functions, and (iii) the flood pulse concept. The thesis shows that WaterGAP3 performs well in representing ecologically relevant flow characteristics on a daily time step, and therefore justifies its application within this research field. For the first time a methodology was established to estimate bankfull flow on a 5 by 5 arc minute grid cell raster globally, which is a key parameter in eFlow assessments as it marks the point where rivers hydraulically connect to adjacent floodplains. Management of dams and water consumption pose a risk to floodplains and riparian wetlands as flood volumes are significantly reduced. The thesis highlights that almost one-third of 93 selected Ramsar sites are seriously affected by modified inundation patterns today, and in the future, inundation patterns are very likely to be further impaired as a result of new major dam initiatives and climate change. Global warming has been identified as a major threat to river flow regimes as rising temperatures, declining snow cover, changing precipitation patterns and increasing climate variability are expected to seriously modify river flow regimes in the future. Flow regimes in all climate zones will be affected, in particular the polar zone (Northern Scandinavia) with higher river flows during the year and higher flood peaks in spring. On the other side, river flows in the Mediterranean are likely to be even more intermittent in the future because of strong reductions in mean summer precipitation as well as a decrease in winter precipitation, leading to an increasing number of zero flow events creating isolated pools along the river and transitions from lotic to lentic waters. As a result, strong impacts on river ecosystem integrity can be expected. Already today, large amounts of water are withdrawn in this region for agricultural irrigation and climate change is likely to exacerbate the current situation of water shortages.
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Stone tools and faunal remains have been recovered from the English Channel and the North Sea through trawling, dredging for aggregates, channel clearance, and coring. These finds highlight the potential for a maritime Lower Palaeolithic archaeological resource. It is proposed here that any Lower Palaeolithic artefacts, faunal remains, and sediments deposited in the maritime zone during dry, low-stand phases were once (and may still be) contextually similar to their counterparts in the terrestrial Lower Palaeolithic records of north-western Europe. Given these similarities, can interpretive models and analytical frameworks developed for terrestrial archaeology be profitably applied to an assessment of the potential value of any maritime resource? The terrestrial geoarchaeological resource for the Lower Palaeolithic is dominated by artefacts and ecofacts that have been fluvially reworked. The spatio-temporal resolution of these data varies from entire river valleys and marine isotope stages to river channel gravel bar surfaces and decadal timescales, thus supporting a variety of questions and approaches. However, the structure of the terrestrial resource also highlights two fundamental limitations in current maritime knowledge that can restrict the application of terrestrial approaches to any potential maritime resource: (i) how have the repetitive transgressions and regressions of the Middle and Late Pleistocene modified the terrace landforms and sediments associated with the river systems of the English Channel and southern North Sea basins?; and (ii) do the surviving submerged terrace landforms and fluvial sedimentary deposits support robust geochronological models, as is the case with the classical terrestrial terrace sequences? This paper highlights potential approaches to these questions, and concludes that the fluvial palaeogeography, Pleistocene fossils, and potential Lower Palaeolithic artefacts of the maritime geoarchaeological resource can be profitably investigated in future as derived, low-resolution data sets, facilitating questions of colonisation, occupation, demography, and material culture.
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The wood mouse is a common and abundant species in agricultural landscape and is a focal species in pesticide risk assessment. Empirical studies on the ecology of the wood mouse have provided sufficient information for the species to be modelled mechanistically. An individual-based model was constructed to explicitly represent the locations and movement patterns of individual mice. This together with the schedule of pesticide application allows prediction of the risk to the population from pesticide exposure. The model included life-history traits of wood mice as well as typical landscape dynamics in agricultural farmland in the UK. The model obtains a good fit to the available population data and is fit for risk assessment purposes. It can help identify spatio-temporal situations with the largest potential risk of exposure and enables extrapolation from individual-level endpoints to population-level effects. Largest risk of exposure to pesticides was found when good crop growth in the “sink” fields coincided with high “source” population densities in the hedgerows. Keywords: Population dynamics, Pesticides, Ecological risk assessment, Habitat choice, Agent-based model, NetLogo
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Droughts tend to evolve slowly and affect large areas simultaneously, which suggests that improved understanding of spatial coherence of drought would enable better mitigation of drought impacts through enhanced monitoring and forecasting strategies. This study employs an up-to-date dataset of over 500 river flow time series from 11 European countries, along with a gridded precipitation dataset, to examine the spatial coherence of drought in Europe using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit. The drought indicators were generated for 24 homogeneous regions and, for selected regions, historical drought characteristics were corroborated with previous work. The spatial coherence of drought characteristics was then examined at a European scale. Historical droughts generally have distinctive signatures in their spatio-temporal development, so there was limited scope for using the evolution of historical events to inform forecasting. Rather, relationships were explored in time series of drought indicators between regions. Correlations were generally low, but multivariate analyses revealed broad continental-scale patterns, which appear to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic West Russia pattern). A novel methodology for forecasting was developed (and demonstrated with reference to the United Kingdom), which predicts drought from drought i.e. uses spatial coherence of drought to facilitate early warning of drought in a target region, from drought which is developing elsewhere in Europe.Whilst the skill of the methodology is relatively modest at present, this approach presents a potential new avenue for forecasting, which offers significant advantages in that it allows prediction for all seasons, and also shows some potential for forecasting the termination of drought conditions.
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The Castanhao reservoir was built in the state of Ceara, a dry region in Northeastern Brazil, to regulate the flow of the Jaguaribe River, for irrigation, and for power generation. It is an earth-filled dam, 60 m high, with a water capacity of 4.5 x 10(9) m(3). The seismicity in the area has been monitored since 1998, with a few interruptions, using one analog or one digital station and, during a few periods, a three-station network. The first earthquakes likely to be induced events were detected in 2003, when the water level was about 20 in high. In early 2004 a very heavy rainfall season quickly filled the reservoir. Shortly after, an increase in the seismic activity occurred and many micro-earthquakes were recorded. We suggest that this activity resulted from an increase in pore pressure due to undrained response. Therefore, we may classify this cluster of microearthquakes as ""initial seismicity."" We deployed a network with four analog stations in the area, following this activity, to determine the epicentral zone. At least three epicentral areas under the reservoir were detected. The spatio-temporal analysis of the available data revealed that the seismicity occurs in clusters and that these were activated at different periods. We identified four sets of faults (N-S-, E-W-, NW-SE-, and NE-SW-oriented), some of which moved in shallow crustal levels and as recently as the Quaternary (1.8 Ma). Under the present-day stress regime, the last two sets moved as strike-slip structures. We suggest a possible correlation between dormant faults and the observed induced seismicity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Reactive oxygen species (ROS) appear to be involved in several neurodegenerative disorders. We tested the hypothesis that oxidative stress could have a role in the hippocampal neurodegeneration observed in temporal lobe epilepsy induced by pilocarpine. We first determined the spatio-temporal pattern of ROS generation, by means of detection with dihydroethidium oxidation, in the CA1 and CA3 areas and the dentate gyrus of the dorsal hippocampus during status epilepticus induced by pilocarpine. Fluoro-Jade B assays were also performed to detect degenerating neurons. ROS generation was increased in CA1, CA3 and the dentate gyrus after pilocarpine-induced seizures, which was accompanied by marked cell death. Treatment of rats with a NADPH oxidase inhibitor (apocynin) for 7 days prior to induction of status epilepticus was effective in decreasing both ROS production (by an average of 20%) and neurodegeneration (by an average of 61%). These results suggest an involvement of ROS generated by NADPH oxidase in neuronal death in the pilocarpine model of epilepsy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.