A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Fast Rule Mining over Multi-dimensional Windows

Association rule mining is an indispensable tool for discovering
insights from large databases and data warehouses.
The data in a warehouse being multi-dimensional, it is often
useful to mine rules over subsets of data defined by selections
over the dimensions. Such interactive rule mining
over multi-dimensional query windows is difficult since rule
mining is computationally expensive. Current methods using
pre-computation of frequent itemsets require counting
of some itemsets by revisiting the transaction database at
query time, which is very expensive. We develop a method
(RMW) that identifies the minimal set of itemsets to compute
and store for each cell, so that rule mining over any
query window may be performed without going back to the
transaction database. We give formal proofs that the set of
itemsets chosen by RMW is sufficient to answer any query
and also prove that it is the optimal set to be computed
for 1 dimensional queries. We demonstrate through an extensive
empirical evaluation that RMW achieves extremely
fast query response time compared to existing methods, with
only moderate overhead in pre-computation and storage

Review of Slavery by Any Other Name: African Life under Company Rule in Colonial Mozambique.

Book review of Slavery by Any Other Name: African Life under Company Rule in Colonial Mozambique, by Eric Allina, Charlottesville, University of Virginia Press, 2012, 255 pp., £44.50, ISBN 978-0-8139-3272-9.

Thanking the Greeks: The Crisis of the Rule of Law in EU Enlargement Regulation

This paper showcases the weaknesses of EU enlargement law and demonstrates how one Member State – namely, Greece – is notable for abusing this weakness, for harming the candidate countries, the EU, and the institutions alike, for stripping the EU position of its predictability, and for undermining the EU Commission’s efforts. Accordingly, Greece has severely incapacitated the key procedural rule of law component of the EU’s enlargement regulation, turning it into a randomised political game and ignoring any long-term goals of stability, prosperity, and peace that the process is to stand for. Following a walk through Greece’s engagement throughout a number of enlargement rounds, the paper concludes that the duty of loyalty – which is presumably able to discipline Member States that undermine the common effort – should find a new meaning in the context of EU enlargement.

Estimation of unemployment rates in small areas of Portugal: a best linear unbiased prediction approach versus a hierarchical Bayes approach

The high level of unemployment is one of the major problems in most European countries nowadays. Hence, the demand for small area labor market statistics has rapidly increased over the past few years. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by the Portuguese Statistical Office is the main source of official statistics on the labour market at the macro level (e.g. NUTS2 and national level). However, the LFS was not designed to produce reliable statistics at the micro level (e.g. NUTS3, municipalities or further disaggregate level) due to small sample sizes. Consequently, traditional design-based estimators are not appropriate. A solution to this problem is to consider model-based estimators that "borrow information" from related areas or past samples by using auxiliary information. This paper reviews, under the model-based approach, Best Linear Unbiased Predictors and an estimator based on the posterior predictive distribution of a Hierarchical Bayesian model. The goal of this paper is to analyze the possibility to produce accurate unemployment rate statistics at micro level from the Portuguese LFS using these kinds of stimators. This paper discusses the advantages of using each approach and the viability of its implementation.

Bacterial algorithm applied for fuzzy rule extraction

This paper presents a method of using the so-colled "bacterial algorithm" (4,5) for extracting a fuzzy rule base from a training set. The bewly proposed bacterial evolutionary algorithm (BEA) is shown. In our application one bacterium corresponds to a fuzzy rule system.

Fuzzy rule extraction from input/output data

Several alternative approaches have been discussed: Levenberg-Marquardt - no satisfactory convergence speed + local minimum, Bacterial algorithm - problems with large dimensionality (speed), Clustering - no safe criterion for number of clusters + dimentionality problem.

Ambivalent Islam: the identity construction of Muslims under Portuguese colonial rule

This article wishes to contribute to the study of the historical processes that have been spotting Muslim populations as favourite targets for political analysis and governance. Focusing on the Portuguese archives, civil as well as military, the article tries to uncover the most conspicuous identity representations (mainly negative or ambivalent) that members of Portuguese colonial apparatus built around Muslim communities living in African colonies, particularly in Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique. The paper shows how these culturally and politically constructed images were related to the more general strategies by which Portuguese imagined their own national identity, both as ‘European’ and as ‘coloniser’ or ‘imperial people’. The basic assumption of this article is that policies enforced in a context of inter-ethnic and religious competition are better understood when linked to the identity strategies inherent to them. These are conceived as strategic constructions aimed at the preservation, the protection and the imaginary expansion of the subject, who looks for groups to be included in and out-groups to reject, exclude, aggress or eliminate. We think that most of the inter-ethnic relationships and conflicts, as well as the very experience of ethnicity, are born from this identity matrix.

A rule-based grapheme-to-phone converter for TTS systems in european portuguese

In this paper, a linguistically rule-based grapheme-to-phone (G2P) transcription algorithm is described for European Portuguese. A complete set of phonological and phonetic transcription rules regarding the European Portuguese standard variety is presented. This algorithm was implemented and tested by using online newspaper articles. The obtained experimental results gave rise to 98.80% of accuracy rate. Future developments in order to increase this value are foreseen. Our purpose with this work is to develop a module/ tool that can improve synthetic speech naturalness in European Portuguese. Other applications of this system can be expected like language teaching/learning. These results, together with our perspectives of future improvements, have proved the dramatic importance of linguistic knowledge on the development of Text-to-Speech systems (TTS).

Harvest control rule vs optimal harvesting of an age-structured population: The case of the Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery

Research Masters

Brigadier-général [Dayrell Talbot] Hammond, un des membres influents de la ligue Home Rule arrive à la conférence de Dublin : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 60754

Implicit and explicit functions in the acquisition of a phonics rule in the word recognition of learning disabled and non learning disabled students /

One group of 12 non learning disabled students and two groups of 12 learning disabled students between the ges of 10 and 12 were measured on implicit and explicit knowledge cquisition. Students in each group implicitly cquired knowledge bout I of 2 vocabulary rules. The vocabulary rules governed the pronunciation of 2 types of pseudowords. After completing the implicit acquisition phase, all groups were administered a test of implicit knowledge. The non learning disabled group and I learning disabled group were then asked to verbalize the knowledge acquired during the initial phase. This was a test of explicit knowledge. All 3 groups were then given a postlest of implicit knowledge. This tcst was a measure of the effectiveness of the employment of the verbalization technique. Results indicate that implicit knowledge capabilities for both the learning disabled and non learning disabled groups were intact. However. there were significant differences between groups on explicit knowledge capabilities. This led to the conclusion that implicit functions show little individual differences, and that explicit functions are affected by ability difference. Furthermore, the employment of the verbalization technique significantly increased POStlest scores for learning disabled students. This suggested that the use of metacognitive techniques was a beneficial learning tool for learning disabled students.

The role of intrapartum intravenous therapy and method of delivery on newborn weight loss : challenging the 7% rule

It is common practice to initiate supplemental feeding in newborns if body weight decreases by 7-10% in the first few days after birth (7-10% rule). Standard hospital procedure is to initiate intravenous therapy once a woman is admitted to give birth. However, little is known about the relationship between intrapartum intravenous therapy and the amount of weight loss in the newborn. The present research was undertaken in order to determine what factors contribute to weight loss in a newborn, and to examine the relationship between the practice of intravenous intrapartum therapy and the extent of weight loss post-birth. Using a cross-sectional design with a systematic random sample of 100 mother-baby dyads, we examined properties of delivery that have the potential to impact weight loss in the newborn, including method of delivery, parity, duration of labour, volume of intravenous therapy, feeding method, and birth attendant. This study indicated that the volume of intravenous therapy and method of delivery are significant predictors of weight loss in the newborn (R2=15.5, p<0.01). ROC curve analysis identified an intravenous volume cut-point of 1225 ml that would elicit a high measure of sensitivity (91.3%), and demonstrated significant Kappa agreement (p<0.01) with excess newborn weight loss. It was concluded that infusion of intravenous therapy and natural birth delivery are discriminant factors that influence excess weight loss in newborn infants. Acknowledgement of these factors should be considered in clinical practice.

The rule of the turk a revised and enlarged edition of the Armenian crisis

UANL