Mechanisms of long-term decline in size of lesser sandeels in the North Sea explored using a growth and phenology model

The lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus is a key species in the North Sea ecosystem, transferring energy from planktonic producers to top predators. Previous studies have shown a long-term decline in the size of 0-group sandeels in the western North Sea, but they were unable to pinpoint the mechanism (later hatching, slower growth or changes in size-dependent mortality) or cause. To investigate the first 2 possibilities we combined 2 independent time series of sandeel size, namely data from chick-feeding Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica and from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), in a novel statistical model implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model estimated annual mean length on 1 July, as well as hatching date and growth rate for sandeels from 1973 to 2006. Mean length-at-date declined by 22% over this period, corresponding to a 60% decrease in energy content, with a sharper decline since 2002. Up to the mid-1990s, the decline was associated with a trend towards later hatching. Subsequently, hatching became earlier again, and the continued trend towards smaller size appears to have been driven by lower growth rates, particularly in the most recent years, although we could not rule out changes in size-dependent mortality. Our findings point to major changes in key aspects of sandeel life history, which we consider are most likely due to direct and indirect temperature-related changes over a range of biotic factors, including the seasonal distribution of copepods and intra- and inter-specific competition with planktivorous fish. The results have implications both for the many predators of sandeels and for age and size of maturation in this aggregation of North Sea sandeels.

Regional and annual variation in black-legged kittiwake breeding productivity is related to sea surface temperature

Spatiotemporal variation in seabird demographic parameters is often pronounced and may be an important source of information on the state of marine ecosystems. Black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in Britain and Ireland show strong regional structure in breeding productivity, and both temporal and spatial variation are probably related to abundance of the principal prey of breeding kittiwakes, the lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus. Annual regional estimates of sandeel abundance do not exist, prohibiting direct tests of this hypothesis. We examined relationships between kittiwake breeding productivity and 2 potential proxies of sandeel abundance, winter sea surface temperature (SST) and abundance of Calanus copepods, within and among 6 regions in Britain and Ireland from 1986 to 2004. Means and trends in winter SST differed among regions, with higher means and less pronounced increasing trends in western (Atlantic) regions than in eastern (North Sea) regions. A negative relationship between breeding productivity and winter SST in the previous year was found within 2 regions (East Scotland and Orkney), as well as in a cross-regional analysis. Results were inconclusive for Calanus abundance, with a positive relationship in East Scotland and negative in Orkney. These results demonstrate that although a single environmental driver (SST) is related to both within- and between-region variation in a key demographic parameter, regional heterogeneity in SST trends as well as the importance of other factors may lead to highly variable responses. Understanding this heterogeneity is critical for predicting long-term effects of climate change or other anthropogenic drivers on marine ecosystems.

Marine plankton phenology and life history in a changing climate: current research and future directions

Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 degrees C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Phytoplankton phenology indices in coral reef ecosystems: Application to ocean-color observations in the Red Sea

Phytoplankton, at the base of the marine food web, represent a fundamental food source in coral reef ecosystems. The timing (phenology) and magnitude of the phytoplankton biomass are major determinants of trophic interactions. The Red Sea is one of the warmest and most saline basins in the world, characterized by an arid tropical climate regulated by the monsoon. These extreme conditions are particularly challenging for marine life. Phytoplankton phenological indices provide objective and quantitative metrics to characterize phytoplank- ton seasonality. The indices i.e. timings of initiation, peak, termination and duration are estimated here using 15 years (1997–2012) of remote sensing ocean-color data from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative project (OC-CCI) in the entire Red Sea basin. The OC-CCI product, comprising merged and bias-corrected observations from three independent ocean-color sensors (SeaWiFS, MODIS and MERIS), and processed using the POLYMER algorithm (MERIS period), shows a significant increase in chlorophyll data cover- age, especially in the southern Red Sea during the months of summer NW monsoon. In open and reef-bound coastal waters, the performance of OC-CCI chlorophyll data is shown to be comparable with the performance of other standard chlorophyll products for the global oceans. These features have permitted us to investigate phytoplankton phenology in the entire Red Sea basin, and during both winter SE monsoon and summer NW monsoon periods. The phenological indices are estimated in the four open water provinces of the basin, and further examined at six coral reef complexes of particular socio-economic importance in the Red Sea, including Siyal Islands, Sharm El Sheikh, Al Wajh bank, Thuwal reefs, Al Lith reefs and Farasan Islands. Most of the open and deeper waters of the basin show an apparent higher chlorophyll concentration and longer duration of phyto- plankton growth during the winter period (relative to the summer phytoplankton growth period). In contrast, most of the reef-bound coastal waters display equal or higher peak chlorophyll concentrations and equal or lon- ger duration of phytoplankton growth during the summer period (relative to the winter phytoplankton growth period). The ecological and biological significance of the phytoplankton seasonal characteristics are discussed in context of ecosystem state assessment, and particularly to support further understanding of the structure and functioning of coral reef ecosystems in the Red Sea.

Questioning the role of phenology shifts and trophic mismatching in a planktonic food web

In a warming climate, differential shifts in the seasonal timing of predators and prey have been suggested to lead to trophic ‘‘mismatches’’ that decouple primary, secondary and tertiary production. We tested this hypothesis using a 25-year time-series of weekly sampling at the Plymouth L4 site, comparing 57 plankton taxa spanning 4 trophic levels. During warm years, there was a weak tendency for earlier timings of spring taxa and later timings of autumn taxa. While this is in line with many previous findings, numerous exceptions existed and only a few taxa (e.g. Gyrodinium spp., Pseudocalanus elongatus, and Acartia clausi) showed consistent, strong evidence for temperature-related timing shifts, revealed by all 4 of the timing indices that we used. Also, the calculated offsets in timing i.e. ‘‘mismatches’’) between predator and prey were no greater in extreme warm or cold years than during more average years. Further, the magnitude of these offsets had no effect on the ‘‘success’’ of the predator, in terms of their annual mean abundance or egg production rates. Instead numerous other factors override, including: inter-annual variability in food quantity, high food baseline levels, turnover rates and prolonged seasonal availability, allowing extended periods of production. Furthermore many taxa, notably meroplankton, increased well before the spring bloom. While theoretically a chronic mismatch, this likely reflects trade-offs for example in predation avoidance. Various gelatinous taxa (Phaeocystis, Noctiluca, ctenophores, appendicularians, medusae) may have reduced these predation constraints, with variable, explosive population outbursts likely responding to improved conditions. The match–mismatch hypothesis may apply for highly seasonal, pulsed systems or specialist feeders, but we suggest that the concept is being over-extended to other marine systems where multiple factors compensate.

The energetics of lactation in cooperatively breeding meerkats Suricata suricatta

Species may become obligate cooperative breeders when parents are unable to raise their offspring unassisted. We measured the daily energy expenditure of mothers, helpers and offspring during peak lactation in cooperatively breeding meerkats Suricata suricatta using the doubly labelled water technique. Lactating mothers expended more energy per day than allo-lactating subordinate females, non-lactating females or suckling offspring. Metabolizable energy intakes of lactating mothers were calculated from isotope-based estimates of offspring milk energy intake, and were not significantly different from the previously suggested maximal limit for mammals. Allo-lactating females were the only category of animals that lost weight during the period of study, probably because they spent more time babysitting than non-lactating females. Daily energy expenditure (DEE) of lactating mothers increased with litter size but decreased with the number of helpers. Calculations show that for every 10 helpers, even in the absence of allo-lactators, mothers are able to reduce their DEE during peak lactation by an amount equivalent to the energy cost of one pup. These results indicate that helpers have beneficial energetic consequences for lactating mothers in an obligate cooperatively breeding mammal.

Experimentally elevated plasma testosterone levels do not influence singing behaviour of male blue tits (Parus caeruleus) during the early breeding season

Sexual selection theory suggests that females might prefer males on the basis of testosterone (T)-dependent secondary sexual traits such as song. Correlational studies have linked high plasma T-levels to high diurnal song output. This has been confirmed in experiments where T-levels were kept high at times when natural T-levels have decreased. However, surprisingly little is known about the relation between T-levels during the early breeding season and song. In many passerine birds males sing at a high rate at dawn early in the breeding season, referred to as the dawn chorus. In blue tits (Parus caeruleus), the dawn chorus coincides with the fertile period of the female, whereas diurnal song occurs throughout the breeding season. Previous studies on blue tits showed that characteristics of the dawn chorus correlate with male reproductive success. We experimentally elevated plasma T-levels in male blue tits during the pre-fertile and fertile period. Our aim was to test whether increased plasma T-levels affect dawn song characteristics and increase the amount of diurnal song. Although T-implants successfully raised circulating T-levels, we did not find any difference between T- and control males in temporal performance measures of dawn song or in diurnal song output. Our results suggest that either there is no direct causal link between song output or quality and individual T-levels, or experimental manipulations of T-levels using implants do not permit detection of such effects during the early breeding season. Although we cannot exclude that individual T-levels are causally linked to other (e.g. structural) song parameters, our results cast doubt on T-dependence as the mechanisms that enforces honesty on song as a sexually selected trait.

The natural plasma testosterone profile of male blue tits during the breeding season and its relation to song output

In male birds, the gonadal hormone testosterone (T) is known to influence territorial and mating behaviour. Plasma levels of T show seasonal fluctuations which vary in relation to mating system and social instability. First, we determined the natural T profile of male blue tits Parus caeruleus during the breeding season. We found that plasma levels of T increased at the onset of nest building. Thus, the increase in circulating T was not associated with territory establishment, nor with the fertile period of the males' mates. In most individuals, T levels dropped to values close to zero during the period of chick feeding. Second, we investigated the relationship between plasma levels of T and male age, size, and singing behaviour. During the mating period, T levels did not differ between 1 yr old and older males and did not correlate with body size or condition. However, song output during the dawn chorus tended to be positively correlated with T levels. Therefore, if high T levels are costly, song output might be an honest indicator of male quality in blue tits. Finally, we show that plasma levels of T are significantly higher during the night than during the day. This pattern has also been observed in captive non-passerine birds, but its functional significance remains unknown.

Signals of need in a cooperatively breeding mammal with mobile offspring

In many bird species with biparental care for young in the nest, hungry chicks beg repeatedly and parents adjust their feeding rate to the call rate of young. Repetitive calling also occurs in fledglings and in some mammals where offspring follow provisioners. It is not yet clear whether, in mobile systems with dispersed young where adults cannot compare the vocal behaviour of all young simultaneously, the calls represent a signal of need. We investigated repetitive begging by cooperatively reared meerkat, Suricata suricatta, pups that foraged with the group. Pups produced two types of begging calls: repeat calls over long periods and high-pitched calls mainly confined to feeding events. Food-deprived pups stayed closer to feeders, and begged for longer and more intensely by calling at a higher rate. Hungry pups increased both the rate of repeat calls, which were given continually, and the number of high-pitched bouts, but adults increased their food allocation only in relation to the rate of repeat calls. Our study indicates that hunger may lead to several changes in vocal behaviour, only some of which may be used by adults to assess need.