(Table 1) Radiolarian accumulation rates and geochemistry of ODP Site 184-1143

Late Miocene-Recent micropaleontological and geochemical records from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1143 in the southern South China Sea (SCS) indicate that increase and decrease in abundance of siliceous plankton may be controlled mainly by the input of nutrients derived from land and provided by upwelling. A high export production event - a "biogenic bloom" event - occurred in the southern SCS between 12 and 6 Ma. During this period, high ratios of smectite/(illite + chlorite), smectite/quartz and Al/K indicate a high weathering intensity of the Asian continent, possibly due to the intensification of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which may have increased the net flux of nutrients to the ocean, both directly through terrestrial input and indirectly through upwelling activity. A drop in Ba/Ti, Al/Ti and Ca/Ti values around 6 Ma may indicate a lowering of productivity, possibly due to the large consumption of sea surface nutrients by the "biogenic bloom". Alternatively, it may indicate a shift in terrigenous input source area. At about 5.4 Ma, a decrease in weathering intensity, as indicated by a sudden decrease in the values of smectite/(illite + chlorite), smectite/quartz and Al/K, might have led to a sudden decrease of terrestrial nutrient input to the SCS. We suggest that the biogenic bloom ended when nutrients in surface waters were exhausted, because of a decrease in supply as well as a decrease in upwelling intensity due to weakening of the EASM. As a result, radiolarians were absent in the studied area between ~6 and 3.2 Ma. At ~3.2 Ma, radiolarians began to recover, possibly because the start of Northern Hemispheric glaciation and the rapid uplift of the Tibet Plateau led to intensification of the East Asian monsoon. After the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition at 0.9 Ma, the abundance and mass accumulation rates of radiolarians increased, probably as a result of increased upwelling activity driven by the increasing intensity of the summer monsoon.

Stable isotope, UK'37, SST, chlorin, alkenone and TOC data of sediment cores GIK17927-2 and GIK17928-3

Upwelling intensity in the South China Sea has changed over glacial-interglacial cycles in response to orbital-scale changes in the East Asian Monsoon. Here, we evaluate new multi-proxy records of two sediment cores from the north-eastern South China Sea to uncover millennial-scale changes in winter monsoondriven upwelling over glacial Terminations I and II. On the basis of U/Th-based speleothem chronology, we compare these changes with sediment records of summer monsoondriven upwelling east of South Vietnam. Ocean upwelling is traced by reduced (UK'37-based) temperature and increased nutrient and productivity estimates of sea surface water (d13C on planktic foraminifera, accumulation rates of alkenones, chlorins, and total organic carbon). Accordingly, strong winter upwelling occurred north-west of Luzon (Philippines) during late Marine Isotope Stage 6.2, Heinrich (HS) and Greenland stadials (GS) HS-11, GS-26, GS-25, HS-1, and the Younger Dryas. During these stadials, summer upwelling decreased off South Vietnam and sea surface salinity reached a maximum suggesting a drop in monsoon rains, concurrent with speleothem records of aridity in China. In harmony with a stadial-to-interstadial see-saw pattern, winter upwelling off Luzon in turn was weak during interstadials, in particular those of glacial Terminations I and II, when summer upwelling culminated east of South Vietnam. Most likely, this upwelling terminated widespread deep-water stratification, coeval with the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2. Yet, a synchronous maximum in precipitation fostered estuarine overturning circulation in the South China Sea, in particular as long as the Borneo Strait was closed when sea level dropped below -40 m.

Description of loess sections in China

The magnetic susceptibility of loess and paleosols in central China represents a proxy climate index closely related to past changes of precipitation and vegetation, and thus to summer monsoon intensity. Time series of magnetic susceptibility constructed for three loess-paleosol sequences in the southern part of the Chinese Loess Plateau document the history of summer monsoon variation during the last 130,000 yr. They correlate closely with the oxygen isotope record of stages 1 to 5 in deep-sea sediments. Soils were forming during intervals of strong summer monsoon, whereas loess units were deposited at times of reduced monsoon intensity. The Chinese loess-paleosol sequence can thus be viewed as a proxy record of Asian monsoon variability extending over the last 2.5 myr.

Sea surface temperature and primary productivity reconstruction of sediment core SO130-275KL from the northeastern Arabian Sea during the late Holocene

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Prominent and well studied is the summer monsoon, but much less is known about late Holocene changes in winter monsoon strength with winds from the northeast that drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity in the northeastern Arabian Sea. To establish a high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and d15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin. Weak winter monsoon intensities off Pakistan are indicated from 400 B.C. to 250 A.D. by reduced productivity and relatively high SST. At about 250 A.D., the intensity of the winter monsoon increased off Pakistan as indicated by a trend to lower SST. We infer that monsoon conditions were relatively unstable from ~500 to 1300 A.D., because primary production and SST were highly variable. Declining SST and elevated biological production from 1400 to 1900 A.D. suggest invigorated convective winter mixing by strengthening winter monsoon circulation, most likely a regional expression of colder climate conditions during the Little Ice Age on the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of winter monsoon intensity with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that an inverse relationship between summer and winter monsoon strength exists in the Asian monsoon system during the late Holocene, effected by shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Drought index from tree-rings in Kongton Mountains, China

The Kongtong Mountain area is a marginal area of the Asian summer monsoon and is sensitive to monsoon dynamics. The sensitivity highlights the need to establishing long-term climate records there and evaluating links with the Asian monsoon. Using "signal-free" methods, we developed a tree-ring chronology based 52 ring-width series from 23 Pinus tabulaeformis and Pinus armandidi trees in the Kongtong Mountain, northern China. Tree growth is highly correlated (0.844) with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July, demonstrating the strength of PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. We therefore developed a robust May-July PDSI reconstruction spanning 1615-2009, which explained 71.2% of the instrumental variance for the period 1951-2005. Extremely dry epochs are found in periods of 1723-1727 and 1928-1932, and significant wet conditions are seen from 1696-1700, 1753-1757 and 1963-1969. These persistent dry and wet epochs were also found in northeastern Mongolia, suggesting similar drought regimes between these two regions. The dryness that occurred in the 1920s-1930s was the most severe and was concurrent with a warming period. This warming/drying relationship of the 1920s-1930s may be an analog to the current drying trend in northern China.

Age determination of sediment core GIK16523-1

High-resolution studies of a planktonic foraminifer core record from the South China Sea (SCS) (31KL: 18°45.4'N, 115°52.4'E, water depth 3360 m) reveal changes driven by ice-volume forcings in the climate of the East Asian monsoon in the western Pacific marginal sea during the late Quaternary. The analyses of planktonic foraminifer faunal abundance data from the core indicate significant variations in the relative abundances of the dominant taxa over the past 100,000 years since the isotope stage 5. The transfer function estimates of faunal sea surface temperatures (SST) correlate well with a long-term (104-105 years) trend of global glaciation. About 65,000 years ago, there was an observable change in the mode of SST variability as many low-latitude records have shown. These findings suggest that the SCS surface circulation and the East Asian winter monsoon systems are mainly driven by variations in global glaciation levels. The association of surface ocean cooling in the SCS with global climatic events suggests that fluctuations in the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon may be linked to shifts in the latitudinal position of the westerly winds and the Siberian high-pressure system.

Age model and palaeoclimate records over the past 22,000 years of sediment core GeoB10053-7

The Australian-Indonesian monsoon is an important component of the climate system in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. However, its past variability, relation with northern and southern high-latitude climate and connection to the other Asian monsoon systems are poorly understood. Here we present high-resolution records of monsoon-controlled austral winter upwelling during the past 22,000 years, based on planktic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes and faunal composition in a sedimentary archive collected offshore southern Java. We show that glacial-interglacial variations in the Australian-Indonesian winter monsoon were in phase with the Indian summer monsoon system, consistent with their modern linkage through cross-equatorial surface winds. Likewise, millennial-scale variability of upwelling shares similar sign and timing with upwelling variability in the Arabian Sea. On the basis of element composition and grain-size distribution as precipitation-sensitive proxies in the same archive, we infer that (austral) summer monsoon rainfall was highest during the Bølling-Allerød period and the past 2,500 years. Our results indicate drier conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 due to a southward shift of summer rainfall and a relatively weak Hadley cell south of the Equator. We suggest that the Australian-Indonesian summer and winter monsoon variability were closely linked to summer insolation and abrupt climate changes in the northern hemisphere.

Climate variability of the last 1000 years in the NW Pacific: high resolution, multi-biomarker records from Lake Toyoni

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) is an active component of the global climate system and has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. Its impact on regional hydrological processes may influence society through industrial water supplies, food productivity and energy use. In order to predict future rates of climate change, reliable and accurate reconstructions of regional temperature and rainfall are required from all over the world to test climate models and better predict future climate variability. Hokkaido is a region which has limited palaeo-climate data and is sensitive to climate change. Instrumental data show that the climate in Hokkaido is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), however, instrumental data is limited to the past ~150 years. Therefore down-core climate reconstructions, prior to instrumental records, are required to provide a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the climate drivers (e.g. the EAM, Westerlies, and teleconnections) in this region. The present study develops multi-proxy reconstructions to determine past climatic and hydrologic variability in Japan over the past 1000 years and aid in understanding the effects of the EAM and the Westerlies independently and interactively. A 250-cm long sediment core from Lake Toyoni, Hokkaido was retrieved to investigate terrestrial and aquatic input, lake temperature and hydrological changes over the past 1000-years within Lake Toyoni and its catchment using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) data, alkenone palaeothermometry, the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of higher plant waxes (δD(HPW)). Here, we conducted the first survey for alkenone biomarkers in eight lakes in the Hokkaido, Japan. We detected the occurrence of alkenones within the sediments of Lake Toyoni. We present the first lacustrine alkenone record from Japan, including genetic analysis of the alkenone producer. C37 alkenone concentrations in surface sediments are 18µg C37 g−1 of dry sediment and the dominant alkenone is C37:4. 18S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of a single alkenone producer in Lake Toyoni and thus a single calibration is used for reconstructing lake temperature based on alkenone unsaturation patterns. Temperature reconstructions over the past 1000 years suggest that lake water temperatures varies between 8 and 19°C which is in line with water temperature changes observed in the modern Lake Toyoni. The alkenone-based temperature reconstruction provides evidence for the variability of the EAM over the past 1000 years. The δD(HPW) suggest that the large fluctuations (∼40‰) represent changes in temperature and source precipitation in this region, which is ultimately controlled by the EAM system and therefore a proxy for the EAM system. In order to complement the biomarker reconstructions, the XRF data strengthen the lake temperature and hydrological reconstructions by providing information on past productivity, which is controlled by the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and wind input into Lake Toyoni, which is controlled by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and the Westerlies. By combining the data generated from XRF, alkenone palaeothermometry and the δD(HPW) reconstructions, we provide valuable information on the EAM and the Westerlies, including; the timing of intensification and weakening, the teleconnections influencing them and the relationship between them. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), we find that the EASM dominated and the EAWM was suppressed, whereas, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), the influence of the EAWM dominated with time periods of increased EASM and Westerlies intensification. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the EAM; a strong EASM occurred during El Niño conditions and a strong EAWM occurred during La Niña. The North Atlantic Oscillation, on the other hand, was a key driver of the Westerlies intensification; strengthening of the Westerlies during a positive NAO phase and weakening of the Westerlies during a negative NAO phase. A key finding from this study is that our data support an anti-phase relationship between the EASM and the EAWM (e.g. the intensification of the EASM and weakening of the EAWM and vice versa) and that the EAWM and the Westerlies vary independently from each other, rather than coincide as previously suggested in other studies.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

An 8.1 Ma calcite record of Asian summer monsoon evolution on the Chinese central Loess Plateau

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