943 resultados para Approximate Bayesian computation, Posterior distribution, Quantile distribution, Response time data


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In the work reported here, optically clear, ultrathin TEOS derived sol-gel slides which were suitable for studies of tryptophan (Trp) fluorescence from entrapped proteins were prepared by the sol-gel technique and characterized. The monitoring of intrinsic protein fluorescence provided information about the structure and environment of the entrapped protein, and about the kinetics of the interaction between the entrapped protein and extemal reagents. Initial studies concentrated on the single Trp protein monellin which was entrapped into the sol-gel matrices. Two types of sol-gel slides, termed "wet aged", in which the gels were aged in buffer and "dry-aged", in which the gels were aged in air , were studied in order to compare the effect of the sol-gel matrix on the structure of the protein at different aging stages. Fluorescence results suggested that the mobility of solvent inside the slides was substantially reduced. The interaction of the entrapped protein with both neutral and charged species was examined and indicated response times on the order of minutes. In the case of the neutral species the kinetics were diffusion limited in solution, but were best described by a sum of first order rate constants when the reactions occurred in the glass matrix. For charged species, interactions between the analytes and the negatively charged glass matrix caused the reaction kinetics to become complex, with the overall reaction rate depending on both the type of aging and the charge on the analyte. The stability and conformational flexibility of the entrapped monellin were also studied. These studies indicated that the encapsulation of monellin into dry-aged monoliths caused the thermal unfolding transition to broaden and shift upward by 14°C, and causedthe long-term stability to improve by 12-fold (compared to solution). Chemical stability studies also showed a broader transition for the unfolding of the protein in dry-aged monoliths, and suggested that the protein was present in a distribution of environments. Results indicated that the entrapped proteins had a smaller range of conformational motions compared to proteins in solution, and that entrapped proteins were not able to unfold completely. The restriction of conformational motion, along with the increased structural order of the internal environment of the gels, likely resulted in the improvements in themial and long-term stability that were observed. A second protein which was also studied in this work is the metal binding protein rat oncomodulin. Initially, the unfolding behavior of this protein in aqueous solution was examined. Several single tryptophan mutants of the metal-binding protein rat oncomodulin (OM) were examined; F102W, Y57W, Y65W and the engineered protein CDOM33 which had all 12 residues of the CD loop replaced with a higher affinity binding loop. Both the thermal and the chemical stability were improved upon binding of metal ions with the order apo < Ca^^ < Tb^"^. During thermal denaturation, the transition midpoints (Tun) of Y65W appeared to be the lowest, followed by Y57W and F102W. The placement of the Trp residue in the F-helix in F102W apparently made the protein slightly more thermostable, although the fluorescence response was readily affected by chemical denaturants, which probably acted through the disruption of hydrogen bonds at the Cterminal end of the F-helix. Under both thermal and chemical denaturation, the engineered protein showed the highest stability. This indicated that increasing the number of metal ligating oxygens in the binding site, either by using a metal ion with a higher coordinatenumber (i.e. Tb^*) which binds more carboxylate ligands, or by providing more ligating groups, as in the CDOM33 replacement, produces notable improvements in protein stability. Y57W and CE)OM33 OM were chosen for further studies when encapsulated into sol-gel derived matrices. The kinetics of interaction of terbium with the entrapped proteins, the ability of the entrapped protein to binding terbium, as well as thermal stability of these two entrapped protein were compared with different levels of Ca^"*^ present in the matrix and in solution. Results suggested that for both of the proteins, the response time and the ability to bind terbium could be adjusted by adding excess calcium to the matrix before gelation. However, the less stable protein Y57W only retained at most 45% of its binding ability in solution while the more stable protein CDOM33 was able to retain 100% binding ability. Themially induced denaturation also suggested that CDOM33 showed similar stability to the protein in solution while Y57W was destabilized. All these results suggested that "hard" proteins (i.e. very stable) can easily survive the sol-gel encapsulation process, but "soft" proteins with lower thermodynamic stability may not be able to withstand the sol-gel process. However, it is possible to control many parameters in order to successfully entrap biological molecules into the sol-gel matrices with maxunum retention of activity.

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Relationships between surface sediment diatom assemblages and lake trophic status were studied in 50 Canadian Precambrian Shield lakes in the Muskoka-Haliburton and southern Ontario regions. The purpose of this study was to develop mathematical regression models to infer lake trophic status from diatom assemblage data. To achieve this goal, however, additional investigations dealing with the evaluation of lake trophic status and the autecological features of key diatom species were carried out. Because a unifying index and classification for lake trophic status was not available, a new multiple index was developed in this study, by the computation of the physical, chemical and biological data from 85 south Ontario lakes. By using the new trophic parameter, the lake trophic level (TL) was determined: TL = 1.37 In[1 +(TP x Chl-a / SD)], where, TP=total phosphorus, Chl-a=chlorophyll-a and SD=Secchi depth. The boundaries between 7 lake trophic categories (Ultra-oligotrophic lakes: 0-0.24; Oligotrophic lakes: 0.241-1.8; Oligomesotrophic lakes: 1.813.0; Mesotrophic lakes: 3.01-4.20; Mesoeutrophic lakes: 4.21-5.4; Eutrophic lakes: 5.41-10 and Hyper-eutrophic lakes: above 10) were established. The new trophic parameter was more convenient for management of water quality, communication to the public and comparison with other lake trophic status indices than many of the previously published indices because the TL index attempts to Increase understanding of the characteristics of lakes and their comprehensive trophic states. It is more reasonable and clear for a unifying determination of true trophic states of lakes. Diatom specIes autecology analysis was central to this thesis. However, the autecological relationship of diatom species and lake trophic status had not previously been well documented. Based on the investigation of the diatom composition and variety of species abundance in 30 study lakes, the distribution optima of diatom species were determined. These determinations were based on a quantitative method called "weighted average" (Charles 1985). On this basis, the diatom species were classified into five trophic categories (oligotrophic, oligomesotrophic, mesotrophic, mesoeutrophic and eutrophic species groups). The resulting diatom trophic status autecological features were used in the regressIon analysis between diatom assemblages and lake trophic status. When the TL trophic level values of the 30 lakes were regressed against their fi ve corresponding diatom trophic groups, the two mathematical equations for expressing the assumed linear relationship between the diatom assemblages composition were determined by (1) uSIng a single regression technique: Trophic level of lake (TL) = 2.643 - 7.575 log (Index D) (r = 0.88 r2 = 0.77 P = 0.0001; n = 30) Where, Index D = (0% + OM% + M%)/(E% + ME% + M%); 4 (2) uSIng a' multiple regressIon technique: TL=4.285-0.076 0%- 0.055 OM% - 0.026 M% + 0.033 ME% + 0.065 E% (r=0.89, r2=0.792, P=O.OOOl, n=30) There was a significant correlation between measured and diatom inferred trophic levels both by single and multiple regressIon methods (P < 0.0001, n=20), when both models were applied to another 20 test lakes. Their correlation coefficients (r2 ) were also statistically significant (r2 >0.68, n=20). As such, the two transfer function models between diatoms and lake trophic status were validated. The two models obtained as noted above were developed using one group of lakes and then tested using an entirely different group of lakes. This study indicated that diatom assemblages are sensitive to lake trophic status. As indicators of lake trophic status, diatoms are especially useful in situations where no local trophic information is available and in studies of the paleotrophic history of lakes. Diatom autecological information was used to develop a theory assessing water quality and lake trophic status.

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Les temps de réponse dans une tache de reconnaissance d’objets visuels diminuent de façon significative lorsque les cibles peuvent être distinguées à partir de deux attributs redondants. Le gain de redondance pour deux attributs est un résultat commun dans la littérature, mais un gain causé par trois attributs redondants n’a été observé que lorsque ces trois attributs venaient de trois modalités différentes (tactile, auditive et visuelle). La présente étude démontre que le gain de redondance pour trois attributs de la même modalité est effectivement possible. Elle inclut aussi une investigation plus détaillée des caractéristiques du gain de redondance. Celles-ci incluent, outre la diminution des temps de réponse, une diminution des temps de réponses minimaux particulièrement et une augmentation de la symétrie de la distribution des temps de réponse. Cette étude présente des indices que ni les modèles de course, ni les modèles de coactivation ne sont en mesure d’expliquer l’ensemble des caractéristiques du gain de redondance. Dans ce contexte, nous introduisons une nouvelle méthode pour évaluer le triple gain de redondance basée sur la performance des cibles doublement redondantes. Le modèle de cascade est présenté afin d’expliquer les résultats de cette étude. Ce modèle comporte plusieurs voies de traitement qui sont déclenchées par une cascade d’activations avant de satisfaire un seul critère de décision. Il offre une approche homogène aux recherches antérieures sur le gain de redondance. L’analyse des caractéristiques des distributions de temps de réponse, soit leur moyenne, leur symétrie, leur décalage ou leur étendue, est un outil essentiel pour cette étude. Il était important de trouver un test statistique capable de refléter les différences au niveau de toutes ces caractéristiques. Nous abordons la problématique d’analyser les temps de réponse sans perte d’information, ainsi que l’insuffisance des méthodes d’analyse communes dans ce contexte, comme grouper les temps de réponses de plusieurs participants (e. g. Vincentizing). Les tests de distributions, le plus connu étant le test de Kolmogorov- Smirnoff, constituent une meilleure alternative pour comparer des distributions, celles des temps de réponse en particulier. Un test encore inconnu en psychologie est introduit : le test d’Anderson-Darling à deux échantillons. Les deux tests sont comparés, et puis nous présentons des indices concluants démontrant la puissance du test d’Anderson-Darling : en comparant des distributions qui varient seulement au niveau de (1) leur décalage, (2) leur étendue, (3) leur symétrie, ou (4) leurs extrémités, nous pouvons affirmer que le test d’Anderson-Darling reconnait mieux les différences. De plus, le test d’Anderson-Darling a un taux d’erreur de type I qui correspond exactement à l’alpha tandis que le test de Kolmogorov-Smirnoff est trop conservateur. En conséquence, le test d’Anderson-Darling nécessite moins de données pour atteindre une puissance statistique suffisante.

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The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm

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Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

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A means of assessing, monitoring and controlling aggregate emissions from multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes is proposed. The approach allows contributions from different instruments with different forms of emissions targets to be integrated. Where Emissions Trading Schemes are helping meet specific national targets, the approach allows the entry requirements of new participants to be calculated and set at a level that will achieve these targets. The approach is multi-levelled, and may be extended downwards to support pooling of participants within instruments, or upwards to embed Emissions Trading Schemes within a wider suite of policies and measures with hard and soft targets. Aggregate emissions from each instrument are treated stochastically. Emissions from the scheme as a whole are then the joint probability distribution formed by integrating the emissions from its instruments. Because a Bayesian approach is adopted, qualitative and semi-qualitative data from expert opinion can be used where quantitative data is not currently available, or is incomplete. This approach helps government retain sufficient control over emissions trading scheme targets to allow them to meet their emissions reduction obligations, while minimising the need for retrospectively adjusting existing participants’ conditions of entry. This maintains participant confidence, while providing the necessary policy levers for good governance.

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We describe a Bayesian approach to analyzing multilocus genotype or haplotype data to assess departures from gametic (linkage) equilibrium. Our approach employs a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to approximate the posterior probability distributions of disequilibrium parameters. The distributions are computed exactly in some simple settings. Among other advantages, posterior distributions can be presented visually, which allows the uncertainties in parameter estimates to be readily assessed. In addition, background knowledge can be incorporated, where available, to improve the precision of inferences. The method is illustrated by application to previously published datasets; implications for multilocus forensic match probabilities and for simple association-based gene mapping are also discussed.

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The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.

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Many applications, such as intermittent data assimilation, lead to a recursive application of Bayesian inference within a Monte Carlo context. Popular data assimilation algorithms include sequential Monte Carlo methods and ensemble Kalman filters (EnKFs). These methods differ in the way Bayesian inference is implemented. Sequential Monte Carlo methods rely on importance sampling combined with a resampling step, while EnKFs utilize a linear transformation of Monte Carlo samples based on the classic Kalman filter. While EnKFs have proven to be quite robust even for small ensemble sizes, they are not consistent since their derivation relies on a linear regression ansatz. In this paper, we propose another transform method, which does not rely on any a priori assumptions on the underlying prior and posterior distributions. The new method is based on solving an optimal transportation problem for discrete random variables. © 2013, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

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The decrease in crime is one of the core issues that cause concern in society today. This study aims to propose improvements to public safety from the choice of points to the location of police units, ie the points which support the car and the police. For this, three models were developed in order to assist decision making regarding the best placement of these bases. The Model of Police Units Routing has the intention to analyze the current configuration of a given region and develop optimal routes for round preventative. The Model of Allocation and Routing for New Police Units (MARNUP) used the model of facility location called p-median weighted and traveling salesman problem (TSP) combined aiming an ideal setting for regions that do not yet have support points or to assess how far the distribution is present in relation to that found in solution. The Model Redefinition and Routing Unit Police (MRRUP) seek to change the current positioning taking into account the budgetary constraints of the decision maker. To verify the applicability of these models we used data from 602 points to instances of police command that is responsible for the capital city of Natal. The city currently has 31 police units for 36 of these 19 districts and police have some assistance. This reality can lead to higher costs and higher response times for answering emergency calls. The results of the models showed that in an ideal situation it is possible to define a distance of 500 km/round, whereas in this 900 km are covered by approximately round. However, a change from three-point lead reduced to 700 km / round which represents a decrease of 22% in the route. This reduction should help improve response time to emergency care, improving the level of service provided by the increase of solved cases, reducing police shifts and routing preventive patrols

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Artificial neural networks are usually applied to solve complex problems. In problems with more complexity, by increasing the number of layers and neurons, it is possible to achieve greater functional efficiency. Nevertheless, this leads to a greater computational effort. The response time is an important factor in the decision to use neural networks in some systems. Many argue that the computational cost is higher in the training period. However, this phase is held only once. Once the network trained, it is necessary to use the existing computational resources efficiently. In the multicore era, the problem boils down to efficient use of all available processing cores. However, it is necessary to consider the overhead of parallel computing. In this sense, this paper proposes a modular structure that proved to be more suitable for parallel implementations. It is proposed to parallelize the feedforward process of an RNA-type MLP, implemented with OpenMP on a shared memory computer architecture. The research consistes on testing and analizing execution times. Speedup, efficiency and parallel scalability are analyzed. In the proposed approach, by reducing the number of connections between remote neurons, the response time of the network decreases and, consequently, so does the total execution time. The time required for communication and synchronization is directly linked to the number of remote neurons in the network, and so it is necessary to investigate which one is the best distribution of remote connections

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of nozzles on spray droplet deposition in the peanut crop cultivar 'Runner IAC 886'. The study was conducted in the field, and the applications of treatments performed in the vegetative stage (V1) and reproductive (R2). It was used the Brilliant Blue FDC - 1 as tracer in water solution, at 500 ppm. The treatments consisted of seven spray nozzle XR 110015 VS (150 L ha(-1)), XR 11002 VS (200 L ha(-1)), TX-VK 6 (150L ha(-1)), TX-VK 8 (200 L ha-1), AI 110015 VS (150 L ha(-1)), AI11002 VS (200 L ha(-1)) e TJ60 11002 VS (150 e 200 L ha(-1)). It was used a randomized blocks design, with four replications. After application, plants were immediately collected, and washed in 100 mL of distilled water for posterior tracer quantification in spectrophotometer. The data had been adjusted a regression curve for Gompertz model. The results had evidenced that at low volumes of application the nozzle AI 110015 VS and TJ60 11002 VS, were the ones with best distribution uniformity of spray on plants of peanut cultivar 'Runner IAC 886' in the vegetative stage (V1) and reproductive (R2) respectively, and the largest deposits and higher percentage of failures in applications have been found in younger plants by comparing the growth stages of application, regardless of the spray nozzle and volume.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Os rios são os agentes mais importantes no transporte dos sedimentos para as áreas mais baixas dos continentes e para o mar. Além dos efeitos diretos do clima local, a cobertura vegetal atua no controle da descarga e no suprimento de sedimentos. Sendo assim, o presente trabalho enfoca o padrão de distribuição granulométrica do rio Urumajó (nordeste paraense) em relação ao estado de preservação da mata ciliar. Cinco estações (A-E) foram estabelecidas de forma a registrar um transecto da nascente à foz do rio. Nessas estações, procedeu-se com a caracterização da mata ciliar, bem como do seu grau de preservação. Além disto, elaborou-se um perfil transversal ao canal para cada estação, com coleta de cinco amostras de sedimentos em cada perfil. Estes foram submetidos à análise granulométrica, que resultou na obtenção de valores da média, mediana, seleção, assimetria e curtose. Com os resultados foi possível reconhecer as características sedimentares normais do rio, onde areia média é a principal classe granulométrica transportada. Foram observadas nas estações A e C a clara tendência das amostras serem moderadamente bem selecionadas e aproximadamente simétricas, com dominância absoluta de areia média, o que está diretamente relacionado ao seu bom estado de preservação. Significativas variações granulométricas nas estações B, D e E foram associadas com o processo erosivo das margens do rio, conseqüência da degradação da mata ciliar. Além disso, foi constatada a influência das correntes de maré na sedimentologia da estação E, subsidiando também a delimitação do ambiente estuarino que se encontra associado ao canal fluvial.