Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados de serviços em comunicações móveis

In recent decades, changes have been occurring in the telecommunications industry, allied to competition driven by the policies of privatization and concessions, have fomented the world market irrefutably causing the emergence of a new reality. The reflections in Brazil have become evident due to the appearance of significant growth rates, getting in 2012 to provide a net operating income of 128 billion dollars, placing the country among the five major powers in the world in mobile communications. In this context, an issue of increasing importance to the financial health of companies is their ability to retain their customers, as well as turn them into loyal customers. The appearance of infidelity from customer operators has been generating monthly rates shutdowns about two to four percent per month accounting for business management one of its biggest challenges, since capturing a new customer has meant an expenditure greater than five times to retention. For this purpose, models have been developed by means of structural equation modeling to identify the relationships between the various determinants of customer loyalty in the context of services. The original contribution of this thesis is to develop a model for loyalty from the identification of relationships between determinants of satisfaction (latent variables) and the inclusion of attributes that determine the perceptions of service quality for the mobile communications industry, such as quality, satisfaction, value, trust, expectation and loyalty. It is a qualitative research which will be conducted with customers of operators through simple random sampling technique, using structured questionnaires. As a result, the proposed model and statistical evaluations should enable operators to conclude that customer loyalty is directly influenced by technical and operational quality of the services offered, as well as provide a satisfaction index for the mobile communication segment

Enigma do paradoxo chinês: uma análise

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Crescimento econômico no Estado de São Paulo: uma análise espacial

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O aluno negro e o ensino superior: trajetória histórica, percalços e conquistas (análise do perfil sócio econômico do discente da FCT/UNESP/Presidente Prudente)

Pós-graduação em Educação - FCT

A representação da informação em prontuários de pacientes de hospitais universitários: uma análise à luz da teoria comunicativa da terminologia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Análise das transformações técnicas produtivas da avicultura de corte em Moçambique: do estado estruturante ao liberalismo econômico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Risco de crédito: uma abordagem utilizando análise discriminante, regressão logística e redes neurais artificiais

Considering the relevance of researches concerning credit risk, model diversity and the existent indicators, this thesis aimed at verifying if the Fleuriet Model contributes in discriminating Brazilian open capital companies in the analysis of credit concession. We specifically intended to i) identify the economic-financial indicators used in credit risk models; ii) identify which economic-financial indicators best discriminate companies in the analysis of credit concession; iii) assess which techniques used (discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural networks) present the best accuracy to predict company bankruptcy. To do this, the theoretical background approached the concepts of financial analysis, which introduced themes relative to the company evaluation process; considerations on credit, risk and analysis; Fleuriet Model and its indicators, and, finally, presented the techniques for credit analysis based on discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. Methodologically, the research was defined as quantitative, regarding its nature, and explanatory, regarding its type. It was developed using data derived from bibliographic and document analysis. The financial demonstrations were collected by means of the Economática ® and the BM$FBOVESPA website. The sample was comprised of 121 companies, being those 70 solvents and 51 insolvents from various sectors. In the analyses, we used 22 indicators of the Traditional Model and 13 of the Fleuriet Model, totalizing 35 indicators. The economic-financial indicators which were a part of, at least, one of the three final models were: X1 (Working Capital over Assets), X3 (NCG over Assets), X4 (NCG over Net Revenue), X8 (Type of Financial Structure), X9 (Net Thermometer), X16 (Net Equity divided by the total demandable), X17 (Asset Turnover), X20 (Net Equity Profitability), X25 (Net Margin), X28 (Debt Composition) and X31 (Net Equity over Asset). The final models presented setting values of: 90.9% (discriminant analysis); 90.9% (logistic regression) and 97.8% (neural networks). The modeling in neural networks presented higher accuracy, which was confirmed by the ROC curve. In conclusion, the indicators of the Fleuriet Model presented relevant results for the research of credit risk, especially if modeled by neural networks.

Inspeção periódica de pulverizadores: análise dos erros de calibração e impacto econômico

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Boas práticas agrícolas: análise de viabilidade financeira em propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas do Nordeste Mato-Grossense

Segundo dados do PRODES/INPE (2008), de 1988 a 2008, 369.154 km² foram desmatados na Amazônia Legal, uma média anual de 17.578 km². Este processo tem sido impulsionado, principalmente, pela expansão da pecuária e da agricultura. Diversas políticas tem sido criadas para reduzir desmatamento. Sendo estas orientadas, geralmente, por instrumentos de comando e controle. Uma recente inovação, entretanto, tem sido a busca de melhoria da qualidade ambiental em médias e grandes propriedades através da introdução de Boas Práticas Agropecuárias (BPA). Baseado nisso, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar se a introdução de BPA em propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas de médio e grande porte do nordeste mato-grossense representa uma alternativa viável financeiramente. A pesquisa foi realizada em cinco municípios localizados ao nordeste do estado do Mato Grosso, na bacia do rio Xingu: Água Boa, Canarana, Querência, Bom Jesus do Araguaia e São Félix do Araguaia. Primeiramente, foram levantados dados detalhados das características das atividades na região de estudo, para isso foram entrevistados 40 fazendeiros (20 de pecuária e 20 de soja). A segunda etapa levantou os dados de custo de adoção de boas práticas em 14 propriedades sojicultoras e pecuaristas pertencentes ao Cadastro de Compromisso Sócio-Ambiental (CCS) da Aliança da Terra (AT)/ Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM). Para análise de viabilidade financeira das Boas Práticas, utilizou-se de três instrumentais: a rentabilidade simples, o valor presente líquido (VPL) e a taxa interna de retorno. Os resultados mostraram que as BPA são passíveis de implementação, mas há uma perda financeira para o produtor quando opta por adotar BPA. No entanto, possibilidades de ganhos com adoção de BPA (como o recebimento por REDD, aumento de produtividade, aumento do preço de venda, dentre outros) podem reduzir estas “perdas” e até igualar os ganhos à produção sem BPA.

Crescimento econômico no estado de São Paulo: uma análise espacial

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Inflação e crescimento econômico: uma análise da política de Vargas ao final do Estado Novo

This article is about the measures that were taken against the inflation in the final period of Estado Novo. Characterized by an inflationary pressure increasing in the end of World War II and the regime crisis. We stand for the idea that the measures concerning the end of the inflation were subordinate to the economic development. The struggle against inflation was mainly based on the control of the prices and measures to extend the supply. The anti-inflationary policy of Vargas’ mandate was directly conditioned by political disputes around the transition and the direction of the economy.

Direcionamento de crédito: uma análise sobre os efeitos da atuação do BNDES durante a crise do Subprime

This essay treats the government acting on the National Financial System (SFN) through the policy of directing credit, a common practice within industrialization attempts. In Brazil this policy occurred mainly through the principal instrument of the government on the financial system, the National Bank of Economic and Social Development (BNDES). It will be explained BNDES’ position within public finances and its ability to mobilize or act as an intermediary for mobilizing resources for the economy. Will also be addressed the countercyclical characteristics of BNDES’ disbursements in the Brazilian economy using as a backdrop the financial crisis that erupted in the overthrow of the mortgages in the USA, also known as the subprime crisis. Finally we will present the main ideas behind the criticism and praise that this model with strong state presence in the financial system suffers

Fragilizaçõa financeira dos estados e a crise federativa: uma análise a partir do ajuste fiscal dos estados de São Paulo e Rio Grande do Sul

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a situação financeira dos estados de São Paulo e Rio Grande do Sul após a renegociação da dívida financeira com o governo federal. A renegociação da dívida foi efetivada mediante a aprovação de um Programa de Ajuste Fiscal com metas periodicamente reavaliadas. É realizada uma contextualização histórica da economia brasileira e da situação dos estados brasileiros. Em seguida, é estudado o Programa de Ajuste Fiscal do Estado de São Paulo, e o Programa de Ajuste Fiscal do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Por fim, são realizadas algumas considerações acerca dos Programas desenvolvidos e realizados pelos Estados

Jornalismo econômico como exercício da cidadania: uma análise da divulgação econômica na mídia oficial e nos veículos Universo Online e O Estado de São Paulo

The present study had the intention to demonstrate how the language used by official sources of economy helps to keep the limitation and lack of accessibility of economic journalism to non-specialist readers. Over two weeks, we compared the disclosures in the economics editorial office of the site Universo Online and the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo to those cited in official reports. From this analysis of more than 50 issues selected for the sample, was observed how the technical language used by the official press makes more difficult the access to information and citizenship. Besides the comparison and description of the reports, the study involved the content analysis employed in the media. It was noted the presence of biased approaches and materials poorly cleared. The language used in many cases was not appropriate to the type of audience for which the news was heading. One of the most serious problems, perhaps, was the copy and paraphrase of press releases. The reports, most are limited to the specialist showed, contrary to the duty of public transparency, while highlighting the problems, the study also showed well-written texts that indicate a promising future for citizen and economic journalism