Precautionary principle, economic and energy systems and social equity

In this paper the precautionary principle is reviewed alongside the process of international implementation. Adoption of the precautionary principle is advocated to deal with energy choices as a mechanism to account for potential climate change impacts, notwithstanding the debate on scientific uncertainty on the links between solar activity, greenhouse gas concentration and climate. However, it is also recognized that the widespread application of the precautionary principle to energy choices does not seem to be taking place in the real world. Relevant concrete barriers are identified stemming from the intrinsic logic governing the hegemonic economic system, driving the energy choices by economic surplus and rent generation potential, the existence of social asymmetries inside and among societies as well as by the absence of democratic global governance mechanisms, capable of dealing with climate change issues. Such perception seems to have been reinforced by the outcome of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, held in Copenhagen in December 2009. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying the areas to preserve passion fruit pollination service in Brazilian Tropical Savannas under climate change

The aim of this study was to identify future distribution areas and propose actions to preserve passion fruit pollination service under a scenario of future climate change. We used four species of Xylocopa bees that are important for passion fruit pollination in Brazilian Tropical Savannas. We also used the known forage plant species (33 species) that are associated with this same area, since passion fruit flowers provide only nectar for bees and only during their blossoming period. We used species distribution modeling to predict the potential areas of occurrence for each bee and plant based on the current day distribution and a future climate scenario (moderate projections of climate change to 2050). We used a geographic information system to classify the models and to analyze the future areas for both groups of species. The current day distribution map showed that Xylocopa and plant species occurred primarily in the southern and central-eastern areas of the Brazilian Tropical Savannas. In the north, Xylocopa species only occurred in a small area between the states of Maranhão and Piauí while forage plant species were only observed in the northern part of the Tocantins State. However, both future scenarios (bees and plants) showed a shift in distribution, with occurrence predominantly detected in the northern areas of Brazilian Tropical Savannas. Possible conservation areas and the use of appropriate agricultural practices were suggested to ensure the maintenance of the bee/plant focal species.

Groundwater resources in Brazil: a review of possible impacts caused by climate change

Groundwater has a strategic role in times of climate change mainly because aquifers can provide water for long periods, even during very long and severe drought. The reduction and/or changes on the precipitation pattern can diminish the recharge mainly in unconfined aquifer, causing available groundwater restriction. The expected impact of long-term climate changes on the Brazilian aquifers for 2050 will lead to a severe reduction in 70% of recharge in the Northeast region aquifers (comparing to 2010 values), varying from 30% to 70% in the North region. Data referring to the South and Southeast regions are more favorable, with an increase in the relative recharge values from 30% to 100%. Another expected impact is the increase in demand and the decrease in the surface water availability that will make the population turn to aquifers as its main source of water for public or private uses in many regions of the country. Thus, an integrated use of surface and groundwater must therefore be considered in the water use planning. The solution of water scarcity is based on three factors: society growth awareness, better knowledge on the characteristics of hydraulic and chemical aquifers and effective management actions.

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

Mountains and Climate Change: A Global Concern

Editor's note: The text of this article originally appeared as the final chapter of a brochure entitled Mountains and Climate Change—From Understanding to Action, prepared at the Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Switzerland, for presentation by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) at a side event at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen on 12 December 2009. Chapters of the brochure deal with various aspects of climate change and its impact in mountain regions. In light of the significance of the Copenhagen COP 15 conference, the editors of this publication believe MRD's readers will be interested in reading this summary written from the perspective of Swiss researchers and development experts. The full brochure may be viewed and downloaded at www.cde.unibe.ch/Research/MA_Re.asp

A Novel Method for the Homogenization of Daily Temperature Series and Its Relevance for Climate Change Analysis

Instrumental daily series of temperature are often affected by inhomogeneities. Several methods are available for their correction at monthly and annual scales, whereas few exist for daily data. Here, an improved version of the higher-order moments (HOM) method, the higher-order moments for autocorrelated data (HOMAD), is proposed. HOMAD addresses the main weaknesses of HOM, namely, data autocorrelation and the subjective choice of regression parameters. Simulated series are used for the comparison of both methodologies. The results highlight and reveal that HOMAD outperforms HOM for small samples. Additionally, three daily temperature time series from stations in the eastern Mediterranean are used to show the impact of homogenization procedures on trend estimation and the assessment of extremes. HOMAD provides an improved correction of daily temperature time series and further supports the use of corrected daily temperature time series prior to climate change assessment.

Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation: Mid-Atlantic Region Case Study

Transportation has contributed to climate change and will most likely be impacted by changes in sea level, temperature, precipitation, and wind, for example. As the risk of climate change impacts become more imminent, pressure for adaptation within transportation agencies to address these impacts continues to rise. The most logical strategy is to integrate consideration of adaptation projects into the long-range transportation planning (LRTP) process. To do this, tools and experience are needed to assist transportation agencies. The Climate Change Adaptation Tool for Transportation (CCATT) is a step-by-step method to evaluate climate change scenarios and impacts, inventory at-risk existing and proposed infrastructure, and assess mitigation practices to identify supporting adaptation efforts. This paper focuses on the application of CCATT to the Mid-Atlantic region using a case study on the Wilmington Area Planning Council (WILMAPCO), the Metropolitan Planning Organization for northern Delaware. The results of the application and case study demonstrate the importance of climate change adaptation practices in long-range transportation planning. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000515. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Conserving indigenous animal genetic resources as a coping strategy to adapt to climate change: the Azikheli Buffalo in Northern Mountains of Pakistan

There are clear signs that the agro-pastoralists in the Himalayan and Hindu-Kush mountain ranges will have less cropping opportunities due to reduced possibilities for irrigated agriculture as a result of climate change. The importance of extensive livestock production based on well adapted livestock species may once again increase. This calls for a better documentation and understanding of the adaptation capabilities of indigenous breeds considering a changing environment. The current study investigates the adaptive traits of the Azikheli buffalo to mountain environments through calculating mean, standard error and percentages for different variables. Results from this study suggest that the brown coat color, the small body size and the high fertility are adaptive traits of the Azikheli buffalo that may well suit harsh mountainous environment conditions with greater climate variability. Local farmers find it hard to sustain the Azikheli buffalo’s key adaptive traits because of a low bull to buffalo ratio, possibility of insemination with semen from imported breeds and a lack of institutional support to conserve the Azikheli breed. The breed is crucial for sustaining custodian communities in these mountains and thus needs to be conserved.

Climate Change and International Law. Exploring the Linkages Between Human Rights, Environment, Trade and Investment

Mapping the relevant principles and norms of international law, the paper discusses scientific evidence and identifies current legal foundations of climate change mitigation adaptation and communication in international environmental law, human rights protection and international trade regulation in WTO law. It briefly discusses the evolution and architecture of relevant multilateral environmental agreements, in particular the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It discusses the potential role of human rights in identifying pertinent goals and values of mitigation and adaptation and eventually turns to principles and rules of international trade regulation and investment protection which are likely to be of crucial importance should the advent of a new multilateral agreement fail to materialize. The economic and legal relevance of rules on tariffs, border tax adjustment and subsidies, services and intellectual property and investment law are discussed in relation to the production, supply and use of energy. Moreover, lessons from trade negotiations may be drawn for negotiations of future environmental instruments. The paper offers a survey of the main interacting areas of public international law and discusses the intricate interaction of all these components informing climate change mitigation, adaptation and communication in international law in light of an emerging doctrine of multilayered governance. It seeks to contribute to greater coherence of what today is highly fragmented and rarely discussed in an overall context. The paper argues that trade regulation will be of critical importance in assessing domestic policies and potential trade remedies offer powerful incentives for all nations alike to participate in a multilateral framework defining appropriate goals and principles.

Surface uplift and climate change - the geomorphic evolution of the western escarpment of the Andes of northern Chile between the Miocene and present

The Western Escarpment of the Andes at 18.30°S (Arica area, northern Chile) is a classical example for a transient state in landscape evolution. This part of the Andes is characterized by the presence of >10,000 km2 plains that formed between the Miocene and the present, and >1500 m deeply incised valleys. Although processes in these valleys scale the rates of landscape evolution, determinations of ages of incision, and more importantly, interpretations of possible controls on valley formation have been controversial. This paper uses morphometric data and observations, stratigraphic information, and estimates of sediment yields for the time interval between ca. 7.5 Ma and present to illustrate that the formation of these valleys was driven by two probably unrelated components. The first component is a phase of base-level lowering with magnitudes of∼300–500 m in the Coastal Cordillera. This period of base-level change in the Arica area, that started at ca. 7.5 Ma according to stratigraphic data, caused the trunk streams to dissect headward into the plains. The headward erosion interpretation is based on the presence of well-defined knickzones in stream profiles and the decrease in valley widths from the coast toward these knickzones. The second component is a change in paleoclimate. This interpretation is based on (1) the increase in the size of the largest alluvial boulders (from dm to m scale) with distal sources during the last 7.5 m.y., and (2) the calculated increase in minimum fluvial incision rates of ∼0.2 mm/yr between ca. 7.5 Ma and 3 Ma to ∼0.3 mm/yr subsequently. These trends suggest an increase in effective water discharge for systems sourced in the Western Cordillera (distal source). During the same time, however, valleys with headwaters in the coastal region (local source) lack any evidence of fluvial incision. This implies that the Coastal Cordillera became hyperarid sometime after 7.5 Ma. Furthermore, between 7.5 Ma and present, the sediment yields have been consistently higher in the catchments with distal sources (∼15 m/m.y.) than in the headwaters of rivers with local sources (<7 m/m.y.). The positive correlation between sediment yields and the altitude of the headwaters (distal versus local sources) seems to reflect the effect of orographic precipitation on surface erosion. It appears that base-level change in the coastal region, in combination with an increase in the orographic effect of precipitation, has controlled the topographic evolution of the northern Chilean Andes.

EXAMINING POLICY CAPACITY INITIATIVES WITHIN CLIMATE CHANGE FRAMEWORKS IN THREE US AND CANADIAN SECTORS USING NVIVO CONTENT ANALYSIS

The climate change narrative has changed from one of mitigation to one of adaptation. Governments around the world have created climate change frameworks which address how the country can better cope with the expected and unexpected changes due to global climate change. In an effort to do so, federal governments of Canada and the United States, as well as some provinces and states within these countries, have created detailed documents which outline what steps must be taken to adapt to these changes. However, not much is mentioned about how these steps will be translated in to policy, and how that policy will eventually be implemented. To examine the ability of governments to acknowledge and incorporate the plethora of scientific information to policy, consideration must be made for policy capacity. This report focuses on three sectors: water supply and demand; drought and flood planning; and forest and grassland ecosystems, and the word ‘capacity’ as related to nine different forms of policy capacity acknowledged in these frameworks. Qualitative content analysis using NVivo was carried out on fifty four frameworks and the results obtained show that there is a greater consideration for managerial capacity compared to analytical or political capacity. The data also indicated that although there were more Canadian frameworks which referred to policy capacity, the frameworks from the United States actually considered policy capacity to a greater degree.

International Trade Regulation and the Mitigation of Climate Change. World Trade Forum

What can trade regulation contribute towards ameliorating the GHG emissions and reducing their concentrations in the atmosphere? This collection of essays analyses options for climate-change mitigation through the lens of the trade lawyer. By examining international law, and in particular the relevant WTO agreements, the authors address the areas of potential conflict between international trade law and international law on climate mitigation and, where possible, suggest ways to strengthen mutual supportiveness between the two regimes. They do so taking into account the drivers of human-induced climate change in energy markets and of consumption.