Development of Physics-based Models and Design Optimization of Power Electronic Conversion Systems

The main objective for physics based modeling of the power converter components is to design the whole converter with respect to physical and operational constraints. Therefore, all the elements and components of the energy conversion system are modeled numerically and combined together to achieve the whole system behavioral model. Previously proposed high frequency (HF) models of power converters are based on circuit models that are only related to the parasitic inner parameters of the power devices and the connections between the components. This dissertation aims to obtain appropriate physics-based models for power conversion systems, which not only can represent the steady state behavior of the components, but also can predict their high frequency characteristics. The developed physics-based model would represent the physical device with a high level of accuracy in predicting its operating condition. The proposed physics-based model enables us to accurately develop components such as; effective EMI filters, switching algorithms and circuit topologies [7]. One of the applications of the developed modeling technique is design of new sets of topologies for high-frequency, high efficiency converters for variable speed drives. The main advantage of the modeling method, presented in this dissertation, is the practical design of an inverter for high power applications with the ability to overcome the blocking voltage limitations of available power semiconductor devices. Another advantage is selection of the best matching topology with inherent reduction of switching losses which can be utilized to improve the overall efficiency. The physics-based modeling approach, in this dissertation, makes it possible to design any power electronic conversion system to meet electromagnetic standards and design constraints. This includes physical characteristics such as; decreasing the size and weight of the package, optimized interactions with the neighboring components and higher power density. In addition, the electromagnetic behaviors and signatures can be evaluated including the study of conducted and radiated EMI interactions in addition to the design of attenuation measures and enclosures.

Investigating the mesh dependency and upscaling of 3D grain-based models for the simulation of brittle fracture processes in low-porosity crystalline rock

The application of 3D grain-based modelling techniques is investigated in both small and large scale 3DEC models, in order to simulate brittle fracture processes in low-porosity crystalline rock. Mesh dependency in 3D grain-based models (GBMs) is examined through a number of cases to compare Voronoi and tetrahedral grain assemblages. Various methods are used in the generation of tessellations, each with a number of issues and advantages. A number of comparative UCS test simulations capture the distinct failure mechanisms, strength profiles, and progressive damage development using various Voronoi and tetrahedral GBMs. Relative calibration requirements are outlined to generate similar macro-strength and damage profiles for all the models. The results confirmed a number of inherent model behaviors that arise due to mesh dependency. In Voronoi models, inherent tensile failure mechanisms are produced by internal wedging and rotation of Voronoi grains. This results in a combined dependence on frictional and cohesive strength. In tetrahedral models, increased kinematic freedom of grains and an abundance of straight, connected failure pathways causes a preference for shear failure. This results in an inability to develop significant normal stresses causing cohesional strength dependence. In general, Voronoi models require high relative contact tensile strength values, with lower contact stiffness and contact cohesional strength compared to tetrahedral tessellations. Upscaling of 3D GBMs is investigated for both Voronoi and tetrahedral tessellations using a case study from the AECL’s Mine-by-Experiment at the Underground Research Laboratory. An upscaled tetrahedral model was able to reasonably simulate damage development in the roof forming a notch geometry by adjusting the cohesive strength. An upscaled Voronoi model underestimated the damage development in the roof and floor, and overestimated the damage in the side-walls. This was attributed to the discretization resolution limitations.

Agent based risk patient management

This paper explores the role of information and communication technologies in managing risk and early discharge patients, and suggests innovative actions in the area of E-Health services. Treatments of chronic illnesses, or treatments of special needs such as cardiovascular diseases, are conducted in long-stay hospitals, and in some cases, in the homes of patients with a follow-up from primary care centre. The evolution of this model is following a clear trend: trying to reduce the time and the number of visits by patients to health centres and derive tasks, so far as possible, toward outpatient care. Also the number of Early Discharge Patients (EDP) is growing, thus permiting a saving in the resources of the care center. The adequacy of agent and mobile technologies is assessed in light of the particular requirements of health care applications. A software system architecture is outlined and discussed. The major contributions are: first, the conceptualization of multiple mobile and desktop devices as part of a single distributed computing system where software agents are being executed and interact from their remote locations. Second, the use of distributed decision making in multiagent systems, as a means to integrate remote evidence and knowledge obtained from data that is being collected and/or processed by distributed devices. The system will be applied to patients with cardiovascular or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases (COPD) as well as to ambulatory surgery patients. The proposed system will allow to transmit the patient's location and some information about his/her illness to the hospital or care centre

Check-in processing : simulation of passengers with advanced traits

In order to tackle the growth of air travelers in airports worldwide, it is important to simulate and understand passenger flows to predict future capacity constraints and levels of service. We discuss the ability of agent-based models to understand complicated pedestrian movement in built environments. In this paper we propose advanced passenger traits to enable more detailed modelling of behaviors in terminal buildings, particularly in the departure hall around the check-in facilities. To demonstrate the concepts, we perform a series of passenger agent simulations in a virtual airport terminal. In doing so, we generate a spatial distribution of passengers within the departure hall to ancillary facilities such as cafes, information kiosks and phone booths as well as common check-in facilities, and observe the effects this has on passenger check-in and departure hall dwell times, and facility utilization.

Including airport duty-free shopping in arriving passenger simulation and the opportunities this presents

Simulating passenger flows within airports is very important as it can provide an indication of queue lengths, bottlenecks, system capacity and overall level of service. To date, visual simulation tools such as agent based models have focused on processing formalities such as check-in, and not incorporate discretionary activities such as duty-free shopping. As airport retail contributes greatly to airport revenue generation, but also has potentially detrimental effects on facilitation efficiency benchmarks, this study developed a simplistic simulation model which captures common duty-free purchasing opportunities, as well as high-level behaviours of passengers. It is argued that such a model enables more realistic simulation of passenger facilitation, and provides a platform for simulating real-time revenue generation as well as more complex passenger behaviours within the airport. Simulations are conducted to verify the suitability of the model for inclusion in the international arrivals process for assessing passenger flow and infrastructure utilization.

MIRACLE Project Plan

Social scientists have used agent-based models (ABMs) to explore the interaction and feedbacks among social agents and their environments. The bottom-up structure of ABMs enables simulation and investigation of complex systems and their emergent behaviour with a high level of detail; however the stochastic nature and potential combinations of parameters of such models create large non-linear multidimensional “big data,” which are difficult to analyze using traditional statistical methods. Our proposed project seeks to address this challenge by developing algorithms and web-based analysis and visualization tools that provide automated means of discovering complex relationships among variables. The tools will enable modellers to easily manage, analyze, visualize, and compare their output data, and will provide stakeholders, policy makers and the general public with intuitive web interfaces to explore, interact with and provide feedback on otherwise difficult-to-understand models.

A complex systems modelling approach for decentralized simulation of electrical microgrids

ICECCS 2010

Towards a Comprehensive Approach to Quantifying and Mapping Ecosystem Services Flows

25 p.

过程系统管理与技术的综合集成

在激烈的市场竞争中，过程企业不仅要重视技术、更要加强管理，实现全局优化运行。提高过程企业的市场竞争能力必须全面综合集成人、组织、战略管理、经营管理、过程管理及信息自动化技术等因素。本文以石化企业为背景，对过程企业面临的问题及发展趋势进行了分析，并且对过程企业管理模式、过程企业的体系结构以及过程集成与优化技术进行了探讨。

Impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs on optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, providing evidence of the fact that marginal vaccination costs increase with coverage. In this study, we use a stochastic agent-based modeling framework to revisit the male vaccination debate in light of these new findings. Within this framework, we assess the impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs of vaccine distribution on optimal immunization strategies against HPV. Focusing on the two scenarios of ongoing and new vaccination programs, we analyze different resource allocation policies and their effects on overall disease burden. Our results suggest that if the costs associated with vaccinating males are relatively close to those associated with vaccinating females, then coverage-dependent, increasing marginal costs may favor vaccination strategies that entail immunization of both genders. In particular, this study emphasizes the necessity for further empirical research on the nature of coverage-dependent vaccination costs.

A compendium of modelling techniques

This Integration Insight provides a brief overview of the most popular modelling techniques used to analyse complex real-world problems, as well as some less popular but highly relevant techniques. The modelling methods are divided into three categories, with each encompassing a number of methods, as follows: 1) Qualitative Aggregate Models (Soft Systems Methodology, Concept Maps and Mind Mapping, Scenario Planning, Causal (Loop) Diagrams), 2) Quantitative Aggregate Models (Function fitting and Regression, Bayesian Nets, System of differential equations / Dynamical systems, System Dynamics, Evolutionary Algorithms) and 3) Individual Oriented Models (Cellular Automata, Microsimulation, Agent Based Models, Discrete Event Simulation, Social Network
Analysis). Each technique is broadly described with example uses, key attributes and reference material.

Evaluación de la Efectividad del Restaurante-Bar El Molino en el Campo de Percepción de Marca Usando un Sistema de Simulación Basado en Agentes

El siguiente trabajo, a partir de la identificación de los diferentes sujetos que participan en el medio ambiente donde se desenvuelve el restaurante El Molino, busca determinar cuáles podrían ser las estrategias de mercadeo más efectivas para que la imagen, concepto y servicio del restaurante, la marca en general, resulte lo más atractivas posibles para los segmentos objetivo de la empresa. Dadas las circunstancias de que es un negocio reciente, no existen datos históricos de la imagen que proyecta la marca hacia sus clientes, por lo tanto la información a partir de la cual se pretenden generar alternativas para que la marca influencie a los clientes de la manera deseada será conseguida a partir de una simulación que será obtenida de un modelo basado en agentes. Con esto lo que se busca es poder parametrizar en qué aspectos y de qué forma la empresa debe invertir para que la forma en que los clientes perciben la marca sea la deseada por el restaurante.

Spatial housing economics: a survey

This introduction to the Virtual Special Issue surveys the development of spatial housing economics from its roots in neo-classical theory, through more recent developments in social interactions modelling, and touching on the role of institutions, path dependence and economic history. The survey also points to some of the more promising future directions for the subject that are beginning to appear in the literature. The survey covers elements hedonic models, spatial econometrics, neighbourhood models, housing market areas, housing supply, models of segregation, migration, housing tenure, sub-national house price modelling including the so-called ripple effect, and agent-based models. Possible future directions are set in the context of a selection of recent papers that have appeared in Urban Studies. Nevertheless, there are still important gaps in the literature that merit further attention, arising at least partly from emerging policy problems. These include more research on housing and biodiversity, the relationship between housing and civil unrest, the effects of changing age distributions - notably housing for the elderly - and the impact of different international institutional structures. Methodologically, developments in Big Data provide an exciting framework for future work.

Fragmentos de complexidade aplicados ao mercado financeiro

O aumento da complexidade do mercado financeiro tem sido relatado por Rajan (2005), Gorton (2008) e Haldane e May (2011) como um dos principais fatores responsáveis pelo incremento do risco sistêmico que culminou na crise financeira de 2007/08. O Bank for International Settlements (2013) aborda a questão da complexidade no contexto da regulação bancária e discute a comparabilidade da adequação de capital entre os bancos e entre jurisdições. No entanto, as definições dos conceitos de complexidade e de sistemas adaptativos complexos são suprimidas das principais discussões. Este artigo esclarece alguns conceitos relacionados às teorias da Complexidade, como se dá a emergência deste fenômeno, como os conceitos podem ser aplicados ao mercado financeiro. São discutidas duas ferramentas que podem ser utilizadas no contexto de sistemas adaptativos complexos: Agent Based Models (ABMs) e entropia e comparadas com ferramentas tradicionais. Concluímos que ainda que a linha de pesquisa da complexidade deixe lacunas, certamente esta contribui com a agenda de pesquisa econômica para se compreender os mecanismos que desencadeiam riscos sistêmicos, bem como adiciona ferramentas que possibilitam modelar agentes heterogêneos que interagem, de forma a permitir o surgimento de fenômenos emergentes no sistema. Hipóteses de pesquisa são sugeridas para aprofundamento posterior.

Utilização de mercados artificiais com formadores de mercado para análise de estratégias

Na modelagem de sistemas complexos, abordagens analíticas tradicionais com equações diferenciais muitas vezes resultam em soluções intratáveis. Para contornar este problema, Modelos Baseados em Agentes surgem como uma ferramenta complementar, onde o sistema é modelado a partir de suas entidades constituintes e interações. Mercados Financeiros são exemplos de sistemas complexos, e como tais, o uso de modelos baseados em agentes é aplicável. Este trabalho implementa um Mercado Financeiro Artificial composto por formadores de mercado, difusores de informações e um conjunto de agentes heterogêneos que negociam um ativo através de um mecanismo de Leilão Duplo Contínuo. Diversos aspectos da simulação são investigados para consolidar sua compreensão e assim contribuir com a concepção de modelos, onde podemos destacar entre outros: Diferenças do Leilão Duplo Contínuo contra o Discreto; Implicações da variação do spread praticado pelo Formador de Mercado; Efeito de Restrições Orçamentárias sobre os agentes e Análise da formação de preços na emissão de ofertas. Pensando na aderência do modelo com a realidade do mercado brasileiro, uma técnica auxiliar chamada Simulação Inversa, é utilizada para calibrar os parâmetros de entrada, de forma que trajetórias de preços simulados resultantes sejam próximas à séries de preços históricos observadas no mercado.