Human Behavious Modelling for Discrete Event and Agent Based Simulation: A Case Study

This study is about the comparison of simulation techniques between Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Simulation (ABS). DES is one of the best-known types of simulation techniques in Operational Research. Recently, there has been an emergence of another technique, namely ABS. One of the qualities of ABS is that it helps to gain a better understanding of complex systems that involve the interaction of people with their environment as it allows to model concepts like autonomy and pro-activeness which are important attributes to consider. Although there is a lot of literature relating to DES and ABS, we have found none that focuses on exploring the capability of both in tackling the human behaviour issues which relates to queuing time and customer satisfaction in the retail sector. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify empirically the differences between these simulation techniques by stimulating the potential economic benefits of introducing new policies in a department store. To apply the new strategy, the behaviour of consumers in a retail store will be modelled using the DES and ABS approach and the results will be compared. We aim to understand which simulation technique is better suited to human behaviour modelling by investigating the capability of both techniques in predicting the best solution for an organisation in using management practices. Our main concern is to maximise customer satisfaction, for example by minimising their waiting times for the different services provided.

Modelling and simulating retail management practices: a first approach

Multi-agent systems offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between people management practices on the shop-floor and retail performance. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that using an agent-based approach offers great potential for improving organizational capabilities in the future. Our multi-disciplinary research team has worked closely with one of the UK’s top ten retailers to collect data and build an understanding of shop-floor operations and the key actors in a department (customers, staff, and managers). Based on this case study we have built and tested our first version of a retail branch agent-based simulation model where we have focused on how we can simulate the effects of people management practices on customer satisfaction and sales. In our experiments we have looked at employee development and cashier empowerment as two examples of shop floor management practices. In this paper we describe the underlying conceptual ideas and the features of our simulation model. We present a selection of experiments we have conducted in order to validate our simulation model and to show its potential for answering “what-if” questions in a retail context. We also introduce a novel performance measure which we have created to quantify customers’ satisfaction with service, based on their individual shopping experiences.

Economic growth and individual satisfaction in an agent-based economy

Macro and micro-economic perspectives are combined in an eco- nomic growth model. An agent-based modeling approach is used to develop an overlapping generation framework where endogenous growth is supported by work- ers that decide to study depending on their relative (skilled and unskilled) indi- vidual satisfaction. The micro perspective is based on individual satisfaction: an utility function computed from the variation of the relative income in both space and time. The macro perspective emerges from micro decisions, and, as in other growth models of this type, concerns an important allocative social decision the share of the working population that is engaged in producing ideas (skilled work- ers). Simulations show that production and satisfaction levels are higher when the evolution of income measured in both space and time are equally weighted.

A virtual agent to sustaining children's engagement in language learning

In this thesis we aimed to explore the potential of gamification - defined as “the use of game elements in non-game contexts” [30] - in increasing children's (aged 5 to 6) engagement with the task. This is mainly due to the fact that our world is living a technological era, and videogames are an example of this engagement by being able to maintain children’s (and adults) engagement for hours straight. For the purpose of limiting complexity, we only addressed the feedback element by introducing it with an anthropomorphic virtual agent (human-like aspect), because research shows that virtual agents (VA’s) can influence behavioural change [17], or even induce emotions on humans both through the use of feedback provided and their facial expressions, which can interpreted in the same way as of humans’ [2]. By pairing the VA with the gamification concept, we wanted to 1) create a VA that is likely to be well-received by children (appearance and behaviour), and 2) have the immediate feedback that games have, so we can give children an assessment of their actions in real-time, as opposed to waiting for feedback from someone (traditional teaching), and with this give students more chances to succeed [32, 43]. Our final system consisted on a virtual environment, where children formed words that corresponded to a given image. In order to measure the impact that the VA had on engagement, the system was developed in two versions: one version of the system was limited to provide a simple feedback environment, where the VA provided feedback, by responding with simple phrases (i.e. “correct” or “incorrect”); for the second version, the VA had a more complex approach where it tried to encourage children to complete the word – a motivational feedback - even when they weren’t succeeding. Lastly we conducted a field study with two groups of children, where one group tested the version with the simple feedback, and the other group tested the ‘motivational’ version of the system. We used a quantitative approach to analyze the collected data that measured the engagement, based on the number of tasks (words) completed and time spent with system. The results of the evaluation showed that the use of motivational feedback may carry a positive effect on engaging children.

A virtual agent to sustaining children's engagement in language learning

In this thesis we aimed to explore the potential of gamification - defined as “the use of game elements in non-game contexts” [30] - in increasing children's (aged 5 to 6) engagement with the task. This is mainly due to the fact that our world is living a technological era, and videogames are an example of this engagement by being able to maintain children’s (and adults) engagement for hours straight. For the purpose of limiting complexity, we only addressed the feedback element by introducing it with an anthropomorphic virtual agent (human-like aspect), because research shows that virtual agents (VA’s) can influence behavioural change [17], or even induce emotions on humans both through the use of feedback provided and their facial expressions, which can interpreted in the same way as of humans’ [2]. By pairing the VA with the gamification concept, we wanted to 1) create a VA that is likely to be well-received by children (appearance and behaviour), and 2) have the immediate feedback that games have, so we can give children an assessment of their actions in real-time, as opposed to waiting for feedback from someone (traditional teaching), and with this give students more chances to succeed [32, 43]. Our final system consisted on a virtual environment, where children formed words that corresponded to a given image. In order to measure the impact that the VA had on engagement, the system was developed in two versions: one version of the system was limited to provide a simple feedback environment, where the VA provided feedback, by responding with simple phrases (i.e. “correct” or “incorrect”); for the second version, the VA had a more complex approach where it tried to encourage children to complete the word – a motivational feedback - even when they weren’t succeeding. Lastly we conducted a field study with two groups of children, where one group tested the version with the simple feedback, and the other group tested the ‘motivational’ version of the system. We used a quantitative approach to analyze the collected data that measured the engagement, based on the number of tasks (words) completed and time spent with system. The results of the evaluation showed that the use of motivational feedback may carry a positive effect on engaging children.

A New Extraction Approach To Correct The Effect Of Apparent Increase In The Secoiridoid Content After Filtration Of Virgin Olive Oil.

In the current study, a new approach has been developed for correcting the effect that moisture reduction after virgin olive oil (VOO) filtration exerts on the apparent increase of the secoiridoid content by using an internal standard during extraction. Firstly, two main Spanish varieties (Picual and Hojiblanca) were submitted to industrial filtration of VOOs. Afterwards, the moisture content was determined in unfiltered and filtered VOOs, and liquid-liquid extraction of phenolic compounds was performed using different internal standards. The resulting extracts were analyzed by HPLC-ESI-TOF/MS, in order to gain maximum information concerning the phenolic profiles of the samples under study. The reduction effect of filtration on the moisture content, phenolic alcohols, and flavones was confirmed at the industrial scale. Oleuropein was chosen as internal standard and, for the first time, the apparent increase of secoiridoids in filtered VOO was corrected, using a correction coefficient (Cc) calculated from the variation of internal standard area in filtered and unfiltered VOO during extraction. This approach gave the real concentration of secoiridoids in filtered VOO, and clarified the effect of the filtration step on the phenolic fraction. This finding is of great importance for future studies that seek to quantify phenolic compounds in VOOs.

The Crystal-t Algorithm: A New Approach To Calculate The Sle Of Lipidic Mixtures Presenting Solid Solutions.

Lipidic mixtures present a particular phase change profile highly affected by their unique crystalline structure. However, classical solid-liquid equilibrium (SLE) thermodynamic modeling approaches, which assume the solid phase to be a pure component, sometimes fail in the correct description of the phase behavior. In addition, their inability increases with the complexity of the system. To overcome some of these problems, this study describes a new procedure to depict the SLE of fatty binary mixtures presenting solid solutions, namely the Crystal-T algorithm. Considering the non-ideality of both liquid and solid phases, this algorithm is aimed at the determination of the temperature in which the first and last crystal of the mixture melts. The evaluation is focused on experimental data measured and reported in this work for systems composed of triacylglycerols and fatty alcohols. The liquidus and solidus lines of the SLE phase diagrams were described by using excess Gibbs energy based equations, and the group contribution UNIFAC model for the calculation of the activity coefficients of both liquid and solid phases. Very low deviations of theoretical and experimental data evidenced the strength of the algorithm, contributing to the enlargement of the scope of the SLE modeling.

Effects Of Therapeutic Approach On The Neonatal Evolution Of Very Low Birth Weight Infants With Patent Ductus Arteriosus.

To analyze the effects of treatment approach on the outcomes of newborns (birth weight [BW] < 1,000 g) with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), from the Brazilian Neonatal Research Network (BNRN) on: death, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH III/IV), retinopathy of prematurity requiring surgical (ROPsur), necrotizing enterocolitis requiring surgery (NECsur), and death/BPD. This was a multicentric, cohort study, retrospective data collection, including newborns (BW < 1000 g) with gestational age (GA) < 33 weeks and echocardiographic diagnosis of PDA, from 16 neonatal units of the BNRN from January 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2011. Newborns who died or were transferred until the third day of life, and those with presence of congenital malformation or infection were excluded. Groups: G1 - conservative approach (without treatment), G2 - pharmacologic (indomethacin or ibuprofen), G3 - surgical ligation (independent of previous treatment). Factors analyzed: antenatal corticosteroid, cesarean section, BW, GA, 5 min. Apgar score < 4, male gender, Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension (SNAPPE II), respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), late sepsis (LS), mechanical ventilation (MV), surfactant (< 2 h of life), and time of MV. death, O2 dependence at 36 weeks (BPD36wks), IVH III/IV, ROPsur, NECsur, and death/BPD36wks. Student's t-test, chi-squared test, or Fisher's exact test; Odds ratio (95% CI); logistic binary regression and backward stepwise multiple regression. Software: MedCalc (Medical Calculator) software, version 12.1.4.0. p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. 1,097 newborns were selected and 494 newborns were included: G1 - 187 (37.8%), G2 - 205 (41.5%), and G3 - 102 (20.6%). The highest mortality was observed in G1 (51.3%) and the lowest in G3 (14.7%). The highest frequencies of BPD36wks (70.6%) and ROPsur were observed in G3 (23.5%). The lowest occurrence of death/BPD36wks occurred in G2 (58.0%). Pharmacological (OR 0.29; 95% CI: 0.14-0.62) and conservative (OR 0.34; 95% CI: 0.14-0.79) treatments were protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks. The conservative approach of PDA was associated to high mortality, the surgical approach to the occurrence of BPD36wks and ROPsur, and the pharmacological treatment was protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks.

Applying The Maternal Near Miss Approach For The Evaluation Of Quality Of Obstetric Care: A Worked Example From A Multicenter Surveillance Study.

To assess quality of care of women with severe maternal morbidity and to identify associated factors. This is a national multicenter cross-sectional study performing surveillance for severe maternal morbidity, using the World Health Organization criteria. The expected number of maternal deaths was calculated with the maternal severity index (MSI) based on the severity of complication, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for each center was estimated. Analyses on the adequacy of care were performed. 17 hospitals were classified as providing adequate and 10 as nonadequate care. Besides almost twofold increase in maternal mortality ratio, the main factors associated with nonadequate performance were geographic difficulty in accessing health services (P < 0.001), delays related to quality of medical care (P = 0.012), absence of blood derivatives (P = 0.013), difficulties of communication between health services (P = 0.004), and any delay during the whole process (P = 0.039). This is an example of how evaluation of the performance of health services is possible, using a benchmarking tool specific to Obstetrics. In this study the MSI was a useful tool for identifying differences in maternal mortality ratios and factors associated with nonadequate performance of care.

A Modified Acidic Approach For Dna Extraction From Plant Species Containing High Levels Of Secondary Metabolites.

Purified genomic DNA can be difficult to obtain from some plant species because of the presence of impurities such as polysaccharides, which are often co-extracted with DNA. In this study, we developed a fast, simple, and low-cost protocol for extracting DNA from plants containing high levels of secondary metabolites. This protocol does not require the use of volatile toxic reagents such as mercaptoethanol, chloroform, or phenol and allows the extraction of high-quality DNA from wild and cultivated tropical species.

A Brazilian Original Pedagogical Approach To The Teaching Of Neurology.

The two-arm Clinical Decisions/Diagnostic Workshop (CD/DW) approach to undergraduate medical education has been successfully used in Brazil. Present the CD/DW approach to the teaching of stroke, with the results of its pre-experimental application and of a comparative study with the traditional lecture-case discussion approach. Application of two questionnaires (opinion and Knowledge-Attitudes-Perceptions-KAP) to investigate the non-inferiority of the CD/DW approach. The method was well accepted by teachers and students alike, the main drawback being the necessarily long time for its completion by the students, a feature that may better cater for different educational needs. The comparative test showed the CD/DW approach to lead to slightly higher cognitive acquisition as opposed to the traditional method, clearly showing its non-inferiority status. The CD/DW approach seems to be another option for teaching neurology in undergraduate medical education, with the bonus of respecting each learner`s time.

Systemic Granulomatous Diseases Associated With Multiple Palpable Masses That May Involve The Breast: Case Presentation And An Approach To The Differential Diagnosis.

Palpable mass is a common complaint presented to the breast surgeon. It is very uncommon for patients to report breast mass associated with palpable masses in other superficial structures. When these masses are related to systemic granulomatous diseases, the diagnosis and initiation of specific therapy can be challenging. The purpose of this paper is to report a case initially assessed by the breast surgeon and ultimately diagnosed as granulomatous variant of T-cell lymphoma, and discuss the main systemic granulomatous diseases associated with palpable masses involving the breast.

Comparative Metagenomic Analysis Of Coral Microbial Communities Using A Reference-independent Approach.

By comparing the SEED and Pfam functional profiles of metagenomes of two Brazilian coral species with 29 datasets that are publicly available, we were able to identify some functions, such as protein secretion systems, that are overrepresented in the metagenomes of corals and may play a role in the establishment and maintenance of bacteria-coral associations. However, only a small percentage of the reads of these metagenomes could be annotated by these reference databases, which may lead to a strong bias in the comparative studies. For this reason, we have searched for identical sequences (99% of nucleotide identity) among these metagenomes in order to perform a reference-independent comparative analysis, and we were able to identify groups of microbial communities that may be under similar selective pressures. The identification of sequences shared among the metagenomes was found to be even better for the identification of groups of communities with similar niche requirements than the traditional analysis of functional profiles. This approach is not only helpful for the investigation of similarities between microbial communities with high proportion of unknown reads, but also enables an indirect overview of gene exchange between communities.

Hearing Preservation And Cochlear Implants According To Inner Ear Approach: Multicentric Evaluation.

Electroacoustic stimulation is an excellent option for people with residual hearing in the low frequencies, who obtain insufficient benefit with hearing aids. To be effective, the subject's residual hearing should be preserved during cochlear implant surgery. To evaluate the hearing preservation in patients that underwent implant placement and to compare the results in accordance with the approach to the inner ear. 19 subjects underwent a soft surgical technique, and the electrode MED-EL FLEX™ EAS, designed to be atraumatic, was used. We evaluated pre- and postoperative tonal audiometric tests with an average of 18.4 months after implantation, to measure the rate of hearing preservation. 17 patients had total or partial preservation of residual hearing; 5 had total hearing preservation and two individuals had no preservation of hearing. The insertion of the electrode occurred through a cochleostomy in 3 patients, and in 2 of these there was no hearing preservation; the other 16 patients experienced electrode insertion through a round window approach. All patients benefited from the cochlear implant, even those who are only using electrical stimulation. The hearing preservation occurred in 89.4% of cases. There was no significant difference between the forms of inner ear approach.

Metal Ions Bound To The Human Milk Immunoglobulin A: Metalloproteomic Approach.

The presence of calcium, iron, and zinc bound to human milk secretory IgA (sIgA) was investigated. The sIgA components were first separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and then identified by electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry (ESI MS MS). The metal ions were detected by flame atomic absorption spectrometry after acid mineralization of the spots. The results showed eight protein spots corresponding to the IgA heavy chain constant region. Another spot was identified as the transmembrane secretory component. Calcium was bound to both the transmembrane component and the heavy chain constant region, while zinc was bound to the heavy chain constant region and iron was not bound with the identified proteins. The association of a metal ion with a protein is important for a number of reasons, and therefore, the findings of the present study may lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms of action and of additional roles that sIgA and its components play in human milk.